These are the heroes of the hour, representing the Israeli Air Force IAF fighter jet pilots who performed so incredibly last night. More details to follow…
No rockets have been fired from Gaza in the past 24 hours. There have been no IDF casualties in the past six days.
The IDF is continuing with its new policy of conducting opportunistic and limited operations against terrorist forces in most of Gaza. Yesterday, the IDF Engineering Corp built an improvised bridge across the Wadi Gaza (a stream) draining water into the Mediterranean. It used the bridge to quickly execute an operation on the outskirts of the town of Nuseirat in central Gaza. The IDF infantry located several rocket launchers in tunnel shafts. The Engineering Corp followed, blowing them up along with some of the terrorists positioned to defend them. In anticipation of upcoming operations, two reserve brigades have been called up to serve in active duty in Gaza.
And the IAF was busy in northern Lebanon today. It targeted and destroyed a large weapons manufacturing facility in northeastern Lebanon, near the Syrian border. Last night, during the Iranian attack, Hezbollah launched more than 40 rockets, targeting civilian towns in northern Israel.
There were many phone calls today of gratitude between Israeli leaders and their counterparts in Washington. IDF Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi called Centcom Chief General Michael Erik Kurilla. The high cooperation between Centcom and the IDF was largely responsible for last nights successful operation. Prime Minister Netanyahu called President Biden, thanking him and congratulating each other on the successful operation. Minister Benny Gantz spoke with German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, discussing the need for a “global and united front against Iranian aggression”. Well, I guess that the President Obama JCPOA nuclear deterrence agreement is no longer a subject of discussion. What a policy failure that was! Under Obama’s Administration he pushed to sign a nuclear deterrence deal with a Jihadi state that makes lying into an art form. Those of you who supported that initiative should read this. It is old, but it exposes how the key negotiator on behalf of the USA during these negotiations was on the payroll of Iran. The meme circulating throughout Israel in the past 24 hours has been, “direct flights between Tehran and Tel Aviv have been restarted for the first time since 1979”.
Before going into my analysis of the operation and its outcome, perhaps I should provide the statistics that have been published so far. According to the IDF Iran launched a combination of 350 airborne offensive weapons against Israel. Iran insists that its main targets were an air base in the Negev and a military observation base on Mt. Hermon in the Golan. The IDF reports that one, maybe three, ballistic missiles evaded its defensive measures and did land in the air base. Damage was minor and the base was used throughout the operation without problems. Out of these 350 weapons, 170 were drones. Nearly all the drones were eliminated before they were able to enter Israeli air space. The US eliminated about 70 drones over either Iraqi or Syrian airspace. UK fighter jets eliminated less than 10 of the drones while flying in Iraqi air space. The Royal Jordanian Air Force launched fighter jets and shot down a dozen traversing its air space. The rest were taken out by IAF fighter jets over Jordanian, Syrian air space or near the border. Here you can see a video released by the IDF showing fighter jets taking out some of the drones. In addition 30 cruise missiles were launched. The IAF eliminated all but 25 of them. Presumably US forces destroyed the other 5. More than 120 ballistic missiles were launched by Iran. These were the most difficult to neutralize due to their high speed. Nearly all of the ballistic missiles were eliminated by the Israeli Arrow (Hetz in Hebrew) and David’s Sling air defense systems. (The Arrow started development soon after the first Iraqi War when the US Patriot systems missed some of the SCUDs fired by Saddam Hussein against Israel.) A few of the Iranian Ballistic Missiles evaded this system and those were the ones which caused damage to the Negev air base. To demonstrate that the air base was operating as normal, the IDF released this clip of an F-35 landing at the base. You might check out this interview with General Petraeus on CNN as he gives his analysis of the situation. And here is an interview with President Herzog on British Sky News that is worth watching.
The French Defense Ministry assisted with logistical support and satellite tracking of the drones. More importantly, the IDF coordinated with the Jordanian armed forces the ability for Israeli jets and anti-missile system to fire on Iranian missiles and drones while over Jordanian air space. There were several minor civilian injuries last night in Israel related to people rushing to bomb shelters in the middle of the night. The only real injury reported from the attack was a 7 year old Bedouin girl from an illegally constructed town in the Negev. She was hit with shrapnel resulting from the interception of an Iranian missile. Because the Bedouin construct these illegal villages, they are not on the IDF maps. The Iron Dome determines if the trajectory of an inbound rocket or missile is headed for a population center. If it is, it automatically intercepts. If not, it lets the missile land in an “unpopulated” area. If that “unpopulated” area is illegal it is not on their maps.
Many countries came out today in support of Israel and the coalition of countries that participated in eliminating the Iranian missiles - the USA, UK, Canada, Germany, France, Denmark, Norway, Czech Republic, Argentina and Paraguay. Russia announced that it was concerned and insisted on a cease fire… that’s nice! Let’s call a ceasefire after one side is attacked with 350 missiles and drones. Spain announced that it “is following events in the Middle East”. What???? Spain is a real follower. I find Canada’s position a bit hypocritical since they announced an arms embargo against Israel.
The Israeli War Cabinet met to consider a response to Iran’s attack. I am not sure that a final decision was made, but I believe that the issue will be discussed over the ensuing days. Minister Benny Gantz said that “Israel will respond when the time is right”. He went further and stated that now is the time to strengthen the alliances which formed during the days leading up to the Iranian attack. I am NOT a member of the War Cabinet, nor have any direct connections. But it is my opinion that Israel WILL strike back, but not using conventional forces. After all, in any normal circumstance a country which attacks another country with 350 drones and rockets has, in effect, declared war and cannot be ignored. But, given the circumstances it is my opinion that Mossad will be given the “green light” to lead efforts in internal sabotage of Iranian military and nuclear facilities. It makes little sense for Israel to launch a direct missile attack against Iran, unless it thinks that it can take out a nuclear facility from the air. And Israel is in no rush. It is better to pick the where, what, when and how… while letting Iran sweat. According to the New York Times, President Biden, in his conversation with Prime Minister Netanyahu, convinced the PM to call off some imminent retaliatory strike. I think that this is wise and it is better that we carefully choose the time, the target and the best means for destroying something significant. Meantime, some of the extreme right wing ministers in the current government are demanding wide ranging reprisal attacks.
But overall, I cannot over state the positive implications of what transpired in the past 24 hours and the past 10 days. Firstly, a coalition of countries coalesced to jointly coordinate a response to the Jihadi Islamic Republic of Iran. Not to sign some bogus treaty that enables them to receive a lot of cash in suitcases. The USA played a principal role in helping make this happen. So, if you think about it… Iran, in one night, brought together a coalition of countries, including Arab countries, to fight its reckless aggression. I believe that this will have a lasting effect in the area. Secondly, if you are the UAE, Bahrain or Saudi Arabia, looking at these events, what did you see? You saw the USA stand behind its strong ally Israel in its defense against a common enemy, Iran. You saw Israeli technology at its finest, eliminate 99% of all the inbound air missiles, including ballistic missiles, all within a period of about 1 ½ hours. Third, imagine if you are Hassan Nasrallah, living more than 60 meters below ground every day of your life while leading Hezbollah. And you look at just what happened. You just lost the most significant military ally within the IRGC on April 1. You have been living all your life below ground, hiding from the IDF. Until now, you, Nasrallah, have been counting on the simultaneous launching of thousands of rockets and anti-tank missiles against Israel. What do you, Mr. Nasrallah, think that the IDF will do to your forces now that you have seen what they do to your sponsor, Iran? And from a US perspective, you now walk away backing a winner and showing that you are willing and able to come to the assistance to an important Middle East ally. If you are Russia or China, what are you thinking???
I believe that the implications of what just happened are profound and will have a lasting impact in the region. In honor of President Biden, I show you this image you see below. It is graffiti on a building in Tel Aviv. It is portraying President Biden as “Captain America” helping defend the Jewish State.
And perhaps to emphasize the aftermath, today Jordan’s foreign ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador to the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan insisting that Iran cease from questioning Jordan’s position in assisting Israel in shooting down drones crossing its territory. It seems obvious that a country has an obligation to prevent attacks in its territorial airspace. But I guess that Iran thinks otherwise.
ADDENDUM: Yesterday, I reported on the incident and aftermath in the terrorist murder of 14 year old Benjamin Achimeir. It turns out that he was tortured by the terrorists and at the end his attackers used a large stone to crush his skull. Also, in the aftermath and the rioting by the “vigilantes” one Arab died from injuries suffered. And today a video was released from a security camera in one of the Arab villages of the “vigilantes” setting a vehicle on fire and nearby IDF soldiers not intervening to stop them. The IDF is investigating now.
I leave you with this article translated from the Hebrew in Yediot Ahranot, a newspaper with one of the largest circulations in Israel. It is written by Ron Ben Yishai. I have a great deal of respect for Yishai and he is one of the best military journalists in the country. From this article I quote “This is the first time in history that a country has successfully dealt with threats that included over 100 drones and the launch of around 30 cruise missiles against it. By comparison, the Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities in 2019 included 17 drones and four cruise missiles, which weren’t intercepted.”