NOTICE: Tomorrow evening is the holiday of Passover (Pesach) and I will not be posting until Tuesday evening my time, Tuesday morning in the USA.
Today’s image is dedicated to this most important holiday in the Jewish calendar. In it you see the Western Wall, the last remaining wall from the Temple Mount, Second Temple period. The Dome of the Rock sits on top of the location of the Holy Temple. In Israel the holiday starts Monday night with a very, symbolic reliving of the events leading to liberation of the Hebrews from slavery in ancient Egypt. In Israel, the holiday lasts through the end of next Monday night, the 29th. In the Haggadah, a family gathers around the table and is commanded to “relive” the events which led to the exodus of our ancestors, the Hebrews, from slavery in the land of Egypt. There is incredible symbolism throughout the prayers and re-accounting of the story of redemption. In particular, this expression is included “For in each generation they have risen against us but the Holy One has saved us from them.” As in many years in the past, this will have special meaning for many of us tomorrow night.
Archeologists argue about whether there is evidence of the events surrounding the Exodus from Egypt as there has been little conclusive proof. However, the second image I display is of the Merneptah Stele found by archeologists exploring around Thebes in 1896. Near the bottom of the slate is a reference to Israel - “Israel is laid waste - its seed is no more”. Most archeologists agree that this is the first reference to a Land of Israel. The stone is housed in the Cairo Museum and dates to 1208 BCE. You can read more about it here.
No rockets launched from Gaza landed in Israel for the past 5 days. One of the injured soldiers from that Hezbollah kamikaze drone succumbed to his wounds today: Maj. (res.) Dor Zimel, 27 (Z’’L). Zimel was engaged to be married. The wedding was scheduled for next month. The others injured in this attack have either been released from the hospital or transferred out of intensive care to other hospitals. The total IDF troops that died in combat either in Gaza or defending Israel in the South or North is now 605.
Not much was reported today during operations in Gaza. Perhaps there is a lull as reservist battalions are moving in to relieve the one active Nahal battalion. But there were reports of aerial attacks on two building in Rafah.
Early this afternoon Hamas, in Lebanon, claimed credit for launching rockets across the border into Israel - 20 of them. No damage or injuries reported. Earlier in the afternoon, Hezbollah fired a few rockets in the area near Rosh Hanikra close to the border along the Mediterranean Sea. Meantime, IAF fighter jets struck several Hezbollah facilities in southern Lebanon including training facilities and observation posts.
A jet fighter strike from an unknown army attacked and successfully destroyed a Syrian Army radar system in the southern part of Syra
An IAF fighter jet intercepted a UAV launched by an Iranian proxy in Iraq that traversed across Jordanian air space.
Not surprisingly, no Houthi announcements or evidence of any attacks against commercial shipping today. As I reported yesterday, the Iranian reconnaissance and missile guidance ship, The Behshad, retreated back to Iran once there was an expectation of an Israeli attack. I expect that once it moves back the Houthis will resume their attacks. Unless someone takes the ship out of commission…
Reports in the Hebrew Press are claiming intelligence sources as estimating that only 40 of the 133 hostages taken (and remaining) on October 7 are likely to be alive. Such estimates would be consistent with Hamas maneuvers revolving around recent negotiations regarding ceasefires.
There appears to be a so called “Freedom Flotilla” set to depart Türkiye tomorrow night, setting sail for Gaza. It has been organized by the Turkish Humanitarian Relief Foundation. This is the same organization that organized a flotilla in 2010, supposedly unarmed in an attempt to break the Israeli inspection system of inbound aid to Gaza at the time. That so called Peace Foundation bore arms and attacked IDF troops that announced, in advance, that they would board the ship unarmed to escort them to an Israeli port. With axes and machetes the crew members attacked the IDF troops, seriously injuring several and resulting in ultimate response from the IDF. This operation is bogus and there is absolutely no need for it, other than causing trouble.
There is a controversy brewing over elements of the IDF presumably being labelled by the Biden Administration as violating human rights. In particular, there is a unit of the IDF called Netzah Yehudi. It is a battalion of ultra-orthodox serving in the IDF. A few years ago the unit served primarily in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) and in more than one instance there were signs that the unit allowed a few terrorist captives to endure difficult weather conditions before being moved to a regular prison. The prisoner ultimately died. In that case the IDF soldier in question was imprisoned and then discharged from the IDF. In light of these problems, and without any prompting from outside elements, the IDF moved the battalion from serving in Judea/Samaria (West Bank), to serving in the north near The Golan Heights where they would not come into contact with such elements. Since those incidents there has not been a repeat. Yet, the US Administration seems to be moving forward with a ruling that would ban the unit from using weapons purchased from the USA with US Aid to Israel. Senior members of the Israeli government are voicing objections. It is not sure yet how this episode will end. Ironically, this unit provides a path for ultra-orthodox to serve in the IDF as it enables them to maintain their routine of daily torah study and to avoid coming into contact with female soldiers. There is a major issue brewing inside the country regarding drafting the ultra-orthodox into the IDF. Condemning this unit might impact this effort. The IDF has attorneys, trained in International Law, attached to each brigade in the IDF. They are trained to view operations and render judgements, in advance. But sometimes, as in any large organization, some people lose control and act outside the accepted practices in the IDF. Generally these people are disciplined. I do not know the details of the circumstances well enough to provide any judgement of my own. There was an highly visible case a few years ago of an IDF soldier shooting a terrorist who had surrendered his weapon and was lying on the ground. The terrorists was shot after the fact, but NOT killed. The IDF soldier was tried in military court, served time in prison and was ultimately discharged. I honestly do not know how often this happens, one way or another. But dealing with suicide bombers who blow themselves up after capture makes these quick judgements difficult, at best. Most leaders, including those outside the current government, are calling on the Biden Administration to think very carefully before making such moves.
There are unconfirmed reports here in Israel that the source of these complaints being lodged against this IDF brigade are coming from an organization called DAWN. According to reports here, the US organization, DAWN, hosts several board members and senior employees are have connections to the Muslim Brotherhood and expressed support for the October 7 massacre in its immediate aftermath. One of the employees is a former senior member of the human rights division of the US State Department who resigned over the fact that the US sold arms to Israel after October 7.
In a clear demonstration of the close cooperation between Russia and Iran in arming each other, it was reported today that Iran is supposed to receive a shipment of Suzhou Su-35 Russian fighter jets. The shipments is expected to include 12 of these fighter jets. Then strangely, later in the day Iran denied the report. Currently Iran’s military jet squadron consists of Soviet era MIGs and even some US F-4 and F-5 fighter jets dating from the period of The Shah, before 1979.
By the way, here is a tweet posted by an Iranian journalist showing the destruction of the phantom missile against the Isfahan air base in Iran that took place on April 13. And here is a satellite photo posted on BBC in case you missed them.
The Finance Ministry announced that it is considering a hike in taxes, both VAT (sales) and Income Taxes. Currently VAT taxes are about 17%. This does not surprise me as it was inevitable that the country would have to finance the costs of the war.
Responses to Request:
I was asked by one of you to comment on “the day after”. That is, once the IDF finishes its operation in Rafah and secures the Gaza border with Egypt, what happens next in terms of governance of the population in Gaza, relations with nearby Arab countries and what impact it might have on Judea/Samaria (West Bank) and the border with Lebanon. Unfortunately, there are no good solutions to the “day after governance” of Gaza. There are only a set of least bad solutions, from which one must choose and try to deploy. So here is MY VIEW…
The Day After
Permitting Hamas to remain as a governing power is out of the question, as is having the IDF govern. For sure the IDF will remain in Gaza for years to come, most likely in a few isolated positions, away from the population, in order to continue operations against the terrorists based on gathered intelligence. The IDF operates this way today in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) since about 2003. Based on gathered intelligence, special units go into a town or village to arrest terrorists and destroy arms, tunnels when necessary. The intelligence is so good that mistakes are rare. The Palestinian Authority has been unwilling or unable to enforce order of its own. Sometimes its police force becomes a part of the problem and on other occasions is part of the solution. So the IDF must continue with these operations there, and will likely have to conduct such operations in Gaza. Moreover, the IDF will police the border with Egypt in order to prevent arms smuggling above and below ground. It did this until 2005 when it unilaterally evacuated its armed forces and the Israeli civilian population from Gaza, leaving the Palestinian Authority to “create a state” as it claimed it wished to do. Naively, Israel thought that giving the Palestinians want they supposedly wanted - a state of their own - would give them the opportunity to create the kind of state they claimed they wanted. Israel evacuated every citizen living in Gaza, including those holding deeds to their property dating back to the Ottoman Period. The Palestinian Authority got exactly what it claimed it wants - land free of “occupation”. Now we know what kind of society they envision building.
But none of this solves the issue of governance, only security. Notwithstanding some major new development, the only possibilities would include - Palestinian Authority, local clan leaders, a multinational Arab Force and/or Mohammad Dahlan. I do not see the third option as I do not see any Arab country, or set of countries, willing to take on this role as it will put their own forces in harm’s way. Mohammad Dahlan was head of the Security Forces in Gaza throughout the 1990’s and was part of the negotiating team during the Oslo Peace discussions. He fell out of favor with Yasser Arafat in 2001 because he called for reform of the Palestinian Authority. This led him down a controversial path ultimately resulting in his being forced to leave the area in 2007 when Hamas took over in Gaza, killing many of the Fatah Forces previously under the authority of Dahlan. Today he lives in the UAE and is close to the ruling family there.
So, it is my best guess that the administrative governance of Gaza will likely be some combination of the local leadership, elements of the PA and/or, possibly, Dahlan. Unlike prior to October 7, 2023 I do not think that Israel will allow workers from Gaza back in to Israel to work. Too many were either directly involved in the massacre or provided intelligence to the terrorists. But, the UAE is investing in a major tourist destination in Egypt’s northern Sinai, along the Mediterranean coast. Workers from Gaza could be very useful in the construction and maintenance of the hotel and resort facilities there. Hopefully, that will be an avenue of providing them work.
I digress here a bit, but it is important…. In the USA, we often look at “fixing” problems. Most of the time this is a logical way to look at things. Find a mutually agreeable compromise over a conflict in which no party gets everything it wants, but each gets something they can live with. This way of looking at the world does not apply well to the Middle East, unfortunately. For years we, in Israel, thought that we could just compromise on land/territory and both parties could walk away with not everything it wanted, but something each could “live with”. This was the basis of the so-called two state solution, which nearly all Israeli governments supported at one level or another, including Benjamin Netanyahu in his speech in 2009, at the beginning of President Obama’s first administration. After years of going down this path, we realize that without a major change in the education of the Palestinian Arabs this is naive and mis-guided. The Arab population, from even before the British Mandate starting in 1917 has never accepted a Jewish presence in Israel. Arafat signed the Oslo Accords, but saw it only as a step along the path of removing all the Jews - From the River to the Sea. Until, this way of thinking changes all that can be done is “manage the problem” not “solve it”. It is not what most Westerners want to hear, but that is the reality. To really solve the problem, the populations of Gaza, Judea/Samaria (West Bank) need to be “de-radicalized”. Today, in their schools they are taught to become “shahids” suicide terrorists, Jihadis eradicating the Middle East of Jews (and Christians), etc. There can be no solution as long as this continues.
Consistent with this view, Israel will do whatever it can to prevent UNRWA from resuming its role in both the education and aid distribution in Gaza. It perpetuates the conflict by teaching in its schools not just hatred of Jews, but how to kill and attack Jews. Moreover, it teaches that the Palestinians that they need to reclaim all of the land - From the River to the Sea - rather than figuring out how to build a thriving state in Gaza, etc. I expect Israel, at some point, to kick UNRWA out of Israel, where it maintains huge offices and facilities.
The US Administration faults Israel with the approach, in part because it is a strategy that did not work too well for them in Iraq. But, this just demonstrates the naiveté of their approach. The US is more than 12,000 km away from Iraq. Gaza is only 3 km away from Israel. As October 7 proved to the Israeli public, we cannot afford more experiments in enabling independent control without major changes in the views of the Palestinian Arab population. And, at best, that will take a long time and patience. Patience is a quality severely lacking in the world, much less the Middle East.
Relations with Arab Neighbors
In terms of what happens with nearby Arab states…. It has taken many years of conflict but the peace treaties with the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco are genuine peace treaties. There are economic cooperations, cultural exchanges and more. The peace treaties with Egypt and Jordan are more like “cold” peace treaties as the populations are still taught, in their schools, to hate the Jews. But, there has not been fighting between Israel-Egypt or Israel-Jordan for more than 50 years now, which is an accomplishment. If someone would have asked me 15 years ago if a real peace with the UAE or Bahrain was possible I would have scoffed and been skeptical. So this major accomplishment is significant in changing the dynamics of the Middle East and carries much hope for the future.
These relationships have lasted through the ongoing conflict in Gaza and I expect them to continue, and actually they will likely grow stronger. As ironic as it sounds to those of you in the USA, should Israel abide by some of the demands of the UN and Europe to establish a unilateral ceasefire in Gaza, it will actually hurt these relationships. To understand why, please bear with me as I digress shortly. There are two schools of thought that have evolved amongst the Moslems in the Middle East, particularly after the tragedy of 9-11. There are those in the Jihadi World - Iran, ISIS, Taliban, Al-Qaeda, Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, Qatar, Türkiye - who view that the only way to restore the glory of Islam as it was at its height in the eighth century AD is to conduct a holy war against the “infidels”. These groups typically view that their populations must make great sacrifices, often with their lives, to achieve this greatness. Because of their messianic views, one reaches ultimate glory by sacrificing one’s life in the path to achieve this Islamic Dominance. At various times these Jihadi groups cooperate with one another, but each sees the restoration of the dominance of Islam differently. ISIS fights Iran when it can, for example. For most of them, the creation of a nation-state is not important as the entire Middle Eastern region, and eventually the world, must succumb to Muslim dominance. ISIS clearly evokes this view. And if you read the Hamas Charter, destruction of Israel is only the first step in a long term vision. These organizations, as most are not even countries, benefit from the creation of chaos and failed states - aka Lebanon, Syria, Iraq. Jordan is teetering with efforts by Iran to infiltrate Jordan.
On the other hand, there are nations such as the UAE, Egypt, Morocco, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia that wish to achieve greatness for their countries by genuinely improving the living conditions of their populations, granting greater freedoms when it doesn’t jeopardize the security of their countries. In particular, Saudi Arabia in response to the events leading up to 9-11 had a total shift in attitude. Until then, they provided cover and funding (indirectly) for Al-Qaeda. But 9-11 shifted their thinking in a major way, causing them to revamp their education system. Jihadisim is no longer perpetuated in their schools. They invest their petroleum wealth, for the most part, to the betterment of the conditions of their population. Most are trying hard to develop economies that are not dependent on oil as the slow, but sure, shift of the world from dependence on fossil fuels changes. These countries are highly motivated to not only recognize Israel, but also find ways to collaborate. In Israel they see an highly motivated population willing to defend itself, create a thriving economy based on products that the world needs/wishes to buy and democratic ideals that benefit freedom for its people. They also see a country able to take on the Jihadis when it must - such as Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. And unlike the USA, Israel is not going anywhere soon. For these reasons, these countries will not say it publicly, but in private they wish Israel success in eliminating Hamas. In fact, if Israel were to abide by the demands of Europe and stop fighting, it will greatly harm its emerging relations with these countries… including Saudi Arabia. So, if anything, Israel’s goal of eliminating Hamas as a military threat and a governing power is NECESSARY to move forward with relations with this part of the Arab world. That is right, opportunities to reach agreements with Saudi Arabia are dependent on the defeat of Hamas. It is also NECESSARY to envision any “Day After” in Gaza.
This also highlights a major difference between how most people in the USA vs. those of us in Israel see the current conflict. We see this as a “clash of civilizations”. Those promoting Jihadism and anarchy (Iran, Hezbollah, Hamas, etc.) vs. those wishing to participate in global trade, freedom and progress (UAE, Bahrain, Israel, Saudi Arabia, etc.). We are the “little Satan” but the USA is the “big Satan”. And it has been this way since 1979. Iran knows that the USA is THE WESTERN POWER and if it falters, Europe quickly disintegrates. All this is part of the Jihadi vision… And some of this strategy is being played out on campuses across the USA as well as European capitals.
Hezbollah and Lebanon
Finally, on to the border with Lebanon… First it is important to understand that BOTH Syria and Lebanon are failed states. Both countries were created in the aftermath of WW1 by colonial powers following the defeat of the Ottoman Empire. France ruled both for many years. Lebanon was created, by the French, for the intention of providing a safe Christian enclave able to rule itself. But that lasted a very short time. There have been many different factions struggling for power in Lebanon - Christian, Druze, Sunni and Shi’ite. The place has only known peace for very short periods of time. With the help of Iran, the Shi’ite terrorist organization Hezbollah has emerged as the major military power in Lebanon. It maintains its own army that is large and better equipped than the actual Lebanese Army. Hezbollah emerged as a power after Israel evacuated Lebanon in 2000 after its invasion in 1982 that successfully forced Yasser Arafat and his terrorist army to flee to Tunisia. Israel overstayed its welcome in Lebanon (that’s right, most of the Lebanese welcomed Israel when it invaded at the beginning) and left in 2000. Hezbollah claimed that it was responsible for forcing the IDF departure. And there is some truth to that claim. Israel pulled back to the armistice lines agreed to in 1948 with the exception of a small area at the northern tip of Israel, perhaps no more than 2 square kilometers. It did so because the internationally recognized border between Syria and Lebanon show that it was part of Syria until Israel captured the Golan Heights in 1967. So despite Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon, Hezbollah maintains its ongoing “war” with Israel on Israeli territory, despite the evacuation of all Israelis from Lebanon. Again, the conflict has NOTHING to do with land or “occupation” or justice.
Hezbollah grew in power due to the direct financial and military support from Iran. Like Iran, Hezbollah consists of Shi’ite Muslims. They directly assisted the Syrian Regime of Bashir Assad in re-taking control of Syria, brutally. Assad belongs to a Mulsim minority called Ahlawites, which are similar in belief to the Shi’ites. It is believed, not proven, that the original intent of Iran was to launch a multi front war against Israel simultaneously from Lebanon, Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank) on Passover 2024 (tomorrow). But Hamas acted on its own, preempting this plan, by attacking on October 7 when it saw an opportunity to kill many civilians participating in the Music Festival. This is an unproven story that has been circulated in the Hebrew Press. So, when Hamas launched its massacre on October 7, Hezbollah as a partner in terror with Hamas could not stand by and do nothing. But, rather than start a full head on attack against Israel it chose to create a “second front” that would force Israel to deploy sizable IDF forces on the northern border so they could not participate in the Gaza operation. And they started an ongoing, but regular set of attacks against Israeli military and civilian positions. Israel cannot let this continue. There are roughly 70,000 Israelis who had to leave their homes in the northern part of the country due to the daily bombardments. They still live in hotels away from their homes and livelihood. It must also be said that roughly the same number of Shi’ite Lebanese have had to evacuate their homes in the south of Lebanon because of expected ongoing conflict there. If anything, Hezbollah has shown a determination to ratchet up the level of attacks. And so the IDF has had to respond to maintain a level of deterrence. Probably due to the need to maintain a focus on Gaza and Hamas, the IDF has not launched a full scale war with Hezbollah. Instead, Israel has demanded that Hezbollah retreat to the Litani River, which is about 12 km north of the border with Israel. US mediators attempted, at the beginning of the war, to find a means to get Hezbollah to move its forces, without success. In 2006 after the Second Lebanese War the UN Security Council passed resolution 1701 unanimously (including votes in favor from Russia, China, Qatar, France, UK and 11 other countries) that required Hezbollah to move its forces back to the Litani River. The resolution was never enforced.
So, it is my opinion that once Israel reaches its near term military goals in Gaza (my guess in about 3-4 months), it is likely to engage in elevated fighting in Lebanon against Hezbollah. Firstly, the country cannot continue to have such a large part of its population continue living in internal exile. Secondly, at some point soon Iran will have a nuclear weapon. When that happens it will have a much higher level of deterrence. So, there is thinking that it is better to eliminate Hezbollah’s ability to launch serious military operations against Israel before that point is reached. It is not clear how Iran would act in the event of such a war. It sees Hezbollah as its main proxy, responsible for the training of its other proxies including - Iraqi rebel groups, Houthis, Hamas and other smaller groups. A major defeat for Hezbollah would set back Iranian plans for its hegemony for many years.