No rockets were fired into Israel in the past 24 hours. No IDF casualties reported on either the northern or southern fronts.
Nothing particularly noteworthy from Gaza fighting today.
Hezbollah fired several anti-tank missiles across the Lebanese border into Israeli territory causing some damage but no injuries. Israel responded by shelling the sites from where the missiles were launched with artillery and dispatching fighter jets to strike several Hezbollah military facilities.
Houthis fired three anti-ship ballistic missiles and three drones toward a Greek owned commercial vessel today. There was some minor damage and no signs of casualties nor injuries. The Houthis announced that they will start attacking vessels going around the African Cape of Good Hope as well now, not just those heading for the Red Sea. That is a total threat to all major commercial shipping.
As the clock is ticking on the Hamas response to the current hostage/ceasefire proposal, extreme right wing members of Netahnyahu’s government are threatening to bolt the coalition. It is very, very hard to read the “tea leaves” at this moment. We all know that there is a deal on the table that calls for:
1 day of ceasefire for each hostage released,
Some undefined number of convicted terrorist murderers released from Israeli jails to, most likely, Gaza,
withdrawal of IDF troops from main population areas of Gaza and
more aid.
So, either these ministers know a lot more than what is being leaked to the press, they are making empty threats or they are guessing as to what the deal looks like. If they were to bolt the government, one of the opposition parties has agreed to step in for the purpose of getting a hostage deal done. But then almost certainly soon thereafter the government will fall and new elections will have to be scheduled.
In the meantime the IDF is clearly getting its troops trained and prepared for an operation to enter Rafah. They are reviewing plans and training accordingly.
In private correspondence, one of you mentioned that it was not clear why the IDF had to conduct a full operation in the southern Gaza city of Rafah, on the Egyptian border. With the exception of Rafah, (by the way it is pronounced Rafiah) the IDF has entered most cities and towns in Gaza. During the course of those operations it has eliminated about 18 of the 24 brigades (about 1000 fighters per brigade). Those fighters remaining are fighting, but not in an organized command structure. The remaining brigades are hiding out in Rafah along with the remaining leadership of Gaza. It is also believed that the remaining hostages are being kept in Rafah. Finally, most of the arms, digging equipment, etc. comes in to Gaza through underground tunnels traversing the Egyptian-Gazan border. The IDF needs to take control of Rafah, try to recover as many hostages as possible, eliminate the remaining Hamas brigades, destroy the underground tunnel system and eliminate the remaining leadership. In the case of the brigades it does not mean than 100% of the operatives need to be either killed or taken captive. But, its ability to fight as an organized structure must be eliminated. If this does not happen, then October 7 is going to happen again and again and again. How do we know? Because this is what the leadership of Hamas has told the world. Unless Hamas is eliminated as a fighting force and rendered unable to launch an attack inside Israel again, our population cannot rest at night. How would you like to return to Kibbutz Be’eri knowing that Hamas is able to gather its troops for another attack within less than a year???
Besides dealing with an ongoing war in Gaza and across the border with Lebanon, today the IDF identified an attempted drug smuggling operation at the Egyptian border which happens a few times a year. Bedouin tribes in the Sinai Peninsula actively attempt to smuggle anything from which they can profit. Israel has a long, high fence with full 7x24 video surveillance coverage across the entire 250 km border with Egypt. It has been very effective.
Today, two “minor” incidents happened in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) and Jerusalem that would ordinarily not be major news. First, an IDF border policeman in the Old City of Jerusalem was stabbed by a Turkish tourist. Stabbings, or attempted stabbings, are a daily occurrence here. But this is unusual because it involved a tourist as the protagonist. Without doubt this is going to lead to a diplomatic crisis with Turkiye. But the entire episode is on video so ample evidence will be shown to the President for Life Tayyep Erdogan. Here is a link to the video, but be warned that it is graphic. The second incident occurred in nearby Ramallah, the capital of the Palestinian Authority. The German “Ambassador” to the Palestinian Authority was visiting a museum in Ramallah when a large number of Arab students attacked him and his car, throwing rocks and everything else they could get their hands on. The Ambassador escaped without serious injury but his automobile was damaged. Here is a video of the incident.
Some of you may remember that on February 29 I reported on a meeting hosted by Russia in Moscow between Hamas and Fatah, with the goal of striving for unity amongst the Palestinian terror factions. It ended without any agreements and each side accusing the other of sabotaging a deal. Well now China announced that it is going to host an its own Kumbaya in Beijing in the hopes of bringing the parties together…. Stay tuned…
Both Secretary of State Anthony Blinken and French Foreign Minister Stephane Sejourne are in Jerusalem at the moment. Sejourne just finished an unsuccessful trip to Lebanon in an attempt to defuse the escalating fighting taking place with Hezbollah. He went there with the goal of convincing Hezbollah to move its forces back to the Litani River, which is required by UN Resolution 1701. But Hezbollah will not budge. He is also provided Israel with his expert military advise by saying that it would be a mistake for Israel to enter Rafah. In a public statement he said that France would work towards increasing the sanctions against Iran. Secretary Blinken is here to get debriefed on the situation regarding the impending Rafah Operation as well as the ongoing hostage negotiations. My guess is that Blinken will also brief the Israeli leadership on his discussions with Saudi officials that just took place in Riyadh.
One of you wrote me a nice note in response to my post yesterday regarding that Harvard Poll and its implications regarding the upcoming US election. I have made a serious point in trying to avoid taking sides in the US presidential elections in these posts. It is true that I have made a disparaging comment about the policies of former President Obama once or twice. But I have deliberately tried to stay away from US politics as I am focusing on war reporting here. [For the record, I have never voted for Donald Trump in any election.] Decisions made in Washington, DC have literal life and death implications on a daily basis here.
If you find the time you might find this Op-Ed in the Wall Street Journal a worthwhile read on the subject of Hezbollah and our northern border. It is written by a David Daoud who is fluent in both Hebrew and Arabic, having lived in both Lebanon and Israel.