Welcome to Sana’a University
This photo is from the Houthi run Sana’a University in Yemen. Nice place, huh? I bet that most of you thought that I wasn’t serious yesterday when I posted that the Houthi run Sana’a University in Yemen announced its interest in helping those US students expelled or suspended from their universities in the USA. Well you can watch this promotional video that the university produced on your own if you like. And here is a link to their web site in the event that you are aware of US students wanting to experience the world they are trying to create. Reuters also reported on this. You might consider forwarding these to any students you know who qualify…
Rockets were fired today from Khan Younis in Gaza today targeting a neighboring Israeli Kibbutz - Ein Hashlosha. But they never crossed the border as they landed inside Gaza. No damage or casualties were reported. So it has now been 6 days without rocket fire from Gaza reaching Israel. No IDF casualties reported on either the northern or southern fronts in the past 4 days.
IDF fire focused today on the sources of the rocket fire. Combined land, sea and air forces from the IDF focusing on destroying the tunnels and rocket launchers. During some of these operations, residual Hamas forces launched mortars against the IDF troops without successfully striking anyone.
On the northern front, Hezbollah launched several barrages of rockets into northern Israel, all landing in open fields. Israel responded with artillery fire targeting the source of the Hezbollah fire. Towards the end of last week I had the opportunity to meet with a couple faculty members of Computer Science at local universities. I am working on a software project, in the form of an iOS Application, and they are helping me. During our conversations they explained to me how the GPS jamming by the IDF in northern Israel has been so effective against the rocket and missile fire by Hezbollah. Most of the Hezbollah guided missiles operate off the GPS signal for active guidance. With that removed all they can do is fire with a pre-programmed target and bearing. Without active guidance the missiles migrate off their trajectory and explode at uncontrolled times/places. Of course, if you send over 100 or 1,000 missiles at a time there is a finite probability that some will reach the intended target. And that is the real fear here in Israel.
While publicly the USA is saying that they oppose an Israeli operation in Rafah because they have not seen a viable plan for keeping civilian casualties at a low enough level, the word here is Israel is that they are telling the Israeli War Cabinet that they will not support an operation in Rafah under any circumstances. I believe these unconfirmed reports. Moreover, the rumors are that the US would impose an arms embargo on Israel should it enter Rafah. The IDF is well aware that they would be under a world wide magnifying glass regarding what happens in Rafah and had to have integrated this into their plans. And those plans were summarized to US officials on more than one occasion. So it makes sense that the USA just does not want Israel to accomplish the main goal of removing Hama as a military power as they stated publicly at the onset of the operations.
Actually, things are relatively quiet for the time being as all the attention is on the exchange of terms on the existing hostage/ceasefire negotiations. There is much anxiety here based on a variety of reports coming in primarily from Arab sources and the Arab press. It appears that Hamas is warming up to the deal. Reports are streaming in from the Arab Press in the region that Hamas is going to respond with a positive signal, pending some details they wish to modify. Israel is insisting that it will not send a negotiating team to Cairo until it receives a formal response to the current Egyptian mediating proposal. Reports in the Ramallah newspaper Al-Quds state that Hamas will announce its agreement to the Egyptian mediated proposal within days. The Qatari paper Al-Sharq reports that the agreement will come within hours. And in the Wall Street Journal, there are reports that Sinwar has provided his response, saying that this is the closest they have seen to something they can accept, but there are still some issues which he provided in his response. In the meantime, Israel refuses to send any delegation to Cairo until it receives a formal response from Hamas to the current proposal. The obvious question being asked here in Israel is “Why the sudden change?”.
And the reason seems to be emerging, but they are clouded by intrigue and much anxiety. According to reports from both Israeli TV Chanel 12 and Israeli Newspaper Ma’ariv here, CIA Director William Burns went to Cairo, met with Hamas leaders there and told them that the USA, Egypt and Qatar would GUARANTEE Hamas that there would be no Israeli operation in Rafah and that at the end of this ceasefire deal ALL IDF TROOPS WOULD BE WITHDRAWN from Gaza. These reports are also coming in through Saudi Arabia to Israeli government officials via existing back channels. Yet Israeli Government officials are re-emphasizing that THERE WILL BE AN OPERATION IN RAFAH and there WILL BE NO EVACUATION OF IDF troops until Hamas is removed as a military and governing force. And according to reports in Qatari Al-Jazeera, Hamas officials are insisting on clarifications as they see conflicting reports from Israel vs. what they are being told by the USA, Egypt and Qatar. I am not qualified to determine which rumors or reports are accurate so I do not want to reach premature conclusions. But as you can guess there is much concern and anxiety here on the role of the negotiating intermediaries and what they are saying/doing.
If, in fact, there is a hostage/ceasefire deal, part of the current stipulations are that many, if not most, of the residents in Rafah who are staying out of active combat zones would return to their homes in northern Gaza. Already 200,000 have returned to their homes in Khan Younis. If that happens, then doesn’t that mean that most of the civilians in Rafah would have been evacuated??? So the Biden Administration’s publicly expressed concerns would be addressed. But, maybe their real concerns are not so public? Israel must take control of the Egyptian/Gaza border to prevent any further migration of weapons or sophisticated tunneling equipment from being transferred to Gaza.
Without Israel achieving its chief goal of eliminating the military and governing capabilities of Hamas, how can the residents of southern Israel return to their homes? How do all the families grieving from their losses on October 7 and those soldiers lost in battle justify their sacrifices? How do all those thousands of Israeli soldiers with lost limbs move on justifying their service when the stated goals of the war, which they supported, are thrown out the window with promises from the Biden Administration????
In related news, according to this report from The Washington Post the Biden Administration tells Qatar that if Hamas obstructs the hostage/ceasefire deal that it should kick out the Hamas leadership that holds refuge there. I believe it and it makes sense as Hamas leaders have been going around the Middle East meeting with high ranking government officials. Officially Hamas leadership announced that if they can no longer stay in Qatar they would move to Jordan. I guess that Türkiye did not offer them something they wanted. Many of the Hamas leaders hold Jordanian passports. But the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan announced that they would not be welcome.
There are reports in the Israeli press quoting reports in the French Le Monde that armed forces in Gaza, linked to Hamas, stole about $70M from the Bank of Palestine last month. Apparently, on or around April 16 they literally drilled a hole into the ceiling of the safe deposit room and took the cash.
As I have said in previous posts, I am avoiding discussing either US politics or the events related to demonstrations/riots across University campuses in the USA and European capitals. Except, there is one issue I wish to point out here, that involves both. Many US newspapers are pointing out that summer recess is imminent on the US campuses and therefore we can all expect the activities relating to the demonstrations to recede. That is true, but they are all ignoring the Party National Conventions convening this summer. The Republican National Convention is convening in Milwaukee between July 15-18 and the Democratic National Convention is convening between August 19-22 in Chicago. The conventions are a month apart, but physically only a two hour drive between each other. In both cases, they are somewhat “non events” as there is little contention as to who the nominees will be for each party, I guess unless President Donald Trump is convicted of a felony between now and then. So why do I bother raising this now?
It is being reported across many press reports, here is one from the Wall Street Journal and here is one from JNS and here is one from the Daily Mail and here in The Federalist and there are many, many more, wherein the authors are investigating the source of funds, training and staff going into these well coordinated/orchestrated demonstrations in the USA. Many of these demonstrators, when interviewed, try to align their efforts with the anti Vietnam war protests of the late 1960s. There are many, many reasons why these current protests are very different, but one would not be able to convince those participating in them of this. So it is my very strong belief that the money and organizations behind these protests are going to focus their efforts on the upcoming party conventions this summer with the goals of disrupting them, causing lasting damage, all in an effort to keep this issue “in the news”. I have no proof, but it is my belief that this is a driving much of the motivations and strategy of the Biden Administration. As you might recall, the 1968 Democratic National Convention also took place in Chicago and the disruptions/rioting contributed largely to the election of the Republican nominee - Richard M. Nixon. If the fighting in Gaza is intense during these conventions it will exacerbate these riots and disturbances. So, the Biden Administration, in my opinion, thinks that it is imperative to eliminate the hostilities by then. But, in my way of thinking, it will not matter. Even if, by some miracle, two states were established by this time and the forces behind these disruptions will still move forward to create massive disturbances as they are not fighting for two states, but one state in the place of Israel. The posters, speeches and slogans are not about two states in peace but the elimination of the Jewish State. And these forces will not stop now, regardless of the situation. This is my opinion. There will be major, well funded and well organized efforts to massively disrupt the national conventions of both parties this summer. Watch!!!