October 220, 2023, "The War"

My 169th post on The War

The image you see posted is a snapshot of a tunnel being blown up in northern Gaza by the IDF corp of engineers, Yahalom. See the links in paragraph 6 below… and here and here.

Three rockets were fired from Gaza towards the Israeli town of Sderot, only 2 ½ km from the Gaza border. Two of the rockets were neutralized by Iron Dome mid air. The third landed in an open field. Shrapnel from the explosions mid air did damage to one home, but no injuries. Then this evening 12 rockets were fired from Khan Younis in Gaza, where civilians were permitted to return, towards Israel. All were either intercepted by Iron Dome or landed in open fields. Yesterday, two IDF soldiers were killed when a kamikaze drone launched by Hezbollah attacked an IDF position near the northernmost tip of the border with Israel: Master Sgt. (res.) Dan Kamkagi, 31 (Z’’L) and Master Sgt. (res) Nahman Natan Hertz, 31 (Z’’L). The IDF identified the drone after launch but was unable to neutralize it in the air because of the very short distance and associated reaction time needed.

The IDF announced that infantry and tank divisions entered the area between eastern Rafah and the Israeli border. They also took over the border crossing between Gaza and Egypt. You can see a couple videos and photos of part of the operation in this article. One thing you might note in viewing this video, is the signs you see in English say something to the effect of “I Love Gaza” or “Welcome to Gaza”. If all this is about building a state called “Palestine” you might ask the very obvious question - “Why don’t they say ‘Welcome to Palestine’?” If they wished to build a state called Palestine, why don’t any of their border crossings - Egypt and Jordan - have signs saying “Welcome to Palestine"? Take a look And here. This border crossing is only 3 km from the Israeli border so it was no a major operation. It was not defended by Hamas by a large force so it was not a major effort to take the border crossing. There is another 9-10 km remaining to the border between Egypt and Gaza that is likely being left for another day. This entire border is called the Philadelphi Corridor. The name bears no relationship to the City of Philadelphia. It was arbitrarily chosen years ago when Israel had control of the border. Israel left in 2005 when evacuated the entirety of Gaza, removing not only the military but also more than 15,000 residents, some of whom lived there for generations and had deeds to their properties dating back to the Ottoman Empire. In the years that Israel controlled the border, and now, that section of the border was rampant with deep tunnels used to smuggle arms in from Egypt and people out from Gaza. For many years Egypt also conducted operations to destroy the tunnels as they were not only used to smuggle people into Egypt but also arms from Hamas to extremists in the Sinai fighting the Egyptian Army. Egypt would flood the tunnels in an effort to destroy them…. often with raw sewage.

At some point the IDF will need to take control over the entire length of the border so it can start destroying those tunnels. There are rumors that some of the tunnels are large enough to handle trucks But these are only rumors. It is not clear to the public what is the current IDF mission in this limited entry into the Rafah area. The IDF has stated that its intent on taking the border crossing was based on intelligence reports suggesting both tunnels and operational terrorist infrastructure in the vicinity. If it is a prelude into something much larger it is clear. Or it could be just a step to try and force Hamas to agree to reasonable terms to an hostage/ceasefire deal. More about that later. There is even one report, which I find hard to believe, that by prior agreement with the USA the area is being cleared so that a private US security firm can take over control of the border crossing. I cannot believe that the US would agree to put US citizens in the line of fire here. But, what do I know??

In parallel with this infantry/tank operation, the IDF has launched aerial raids on well identified terrorist targets inside eastern Rafah, where most of the civilians have left. Mostly these operations are conducted at night. Presumably these raids are being conducted to weaken the remaining terrorist brigades in this part of Rafah before a full infantry entry. The IDF is suggesting to the public that the intended tactics regarding Rafah are more targeted attacks, like the current one, after civilians are evacuated from the given areas.

In the meantime, operations continue elsewhere in Gaza. The IDF combat engineering corp, Yahalom, has become experts in the destruction of tunnels. Today they demolished two attack tunnels uncovered during previous operations in Beit Hanoun, the northernmost Gazan city. The tunnels were built to within 150 meters of the Israeli border with the intention of finishing them under short notice when they were ready to launch a mission. I encourage you to watch these videos of the operation deployed to destroy the tunnels. You can also see them here and here.

And today Egypt announced that Israel’s operation in Rafah would not cause any harm to the existing peace agreement with Israel. This is after threatening Israel consistently for the past two months that any operation in Rafah would jeopardize the peace agreement. Similarly, at the beginning of the IDF operation in Gaza, the USA sent many contingents of US Armed Forces to Israel to try and convince Israel not to enter Gaza because of the huge casualties the IDF would bear during the course of the fighting. Those early estimates were more than 30X the real IDF casualty figures. I guess that the USA was basing this on their experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Biden Administration threatened Israel if they went in to Gaza. We now know the reality. The IDF has performed amazingly well with not only a fraction of the casualties that the US Armed Services predicted, but also very few civilian casualties as compared to similar battles fought by US and allied forces in Iraq and elsewhere.

More kamikaze drones were launched by Hezbollah today in attempts to attack other Israeli towns in the north. One was downed by air defenses, another struck an area near a small village, causing a fire and the others caused minor damage. And two struck open areas. It is not clear to me why Iron Dome is not more effective in dealing with these drones. It has been reported that they fly at altitudes well below radar and only climb right before they attack. Perhaps that is the reason… Needless to say Israeli fighter jets launched missile attacks at several Hezbollah military positions in the south.

And tonight an interceptor defensive missile appears to have fired in the south near Israel’s southernmost city of Eilat. There appears to have been another missile launched from somewhere in Iraq by Iranian proxies against Israel, crossing Jordanian airspace. Last night an Israeli fighter jet intercepted a drone launched from Iraqi airspace.

The UK Maritime Trade Operations, operating in the Red Sea arena, reported today that two explosions were reported near a merchant vessel 82 nautical miles off the coast of Yemen. No reports of damage or injuries. US Centcom reports downing a Houthi drone launched over the Red Sea. It was not clear as to what the target was.

There are reports that the US is holding up the shipment of precision bombs to Israel. The reasons are not entirely clear - beaurocratic or political. No one is making clear statements. No one here seems panicked, at least yet.

Up until Sunday night it looked as if the hostage/ceasefire negotiations had blown up with no agreement. Then, as soon as IDF started the civilian evacuation from eastern Rafah and sent in troops, Hamas came up with some absurd statement regarding “agreeing” to the agreement. First it is quite clear that they are only responding when they see military force is real. Secondly, what they agreed to has no resemblance to the proposal that was called “generous” by the Biden Administration and that Israel had agreed to. There are reports in the Israeli Hebrew and English Press regarding what Hamas is “agreeing” to. Almost none of it resembles what was in the previous proposal. Moreover, there is this rather incredible report from the New York Times, and is being also reported here in Israel. [I can’t be sure that this is the NYT article where the story appeared. It is behind a paywall.] According to these reports, the most recent Israeli proposal, called generous by the USA, was a cut and paste operation on a proposal sent by Hamas itself back in late April. That’s right, Israel just cut and pasted what Hamas had previously proposed to Israel. According to these reports, Israel did this to demonstrate to the mediators that Hamas was just playing a game for time and torturing the hostage families… that it was not really serious. According to the NYT report, the mediators were infuriated with Hamas as they understood the implications. But that doesn’t seem to stop them from publicly blaming Israel, or at least cornering Israel. Reports in the Israeli press are slamming the mediators for taking sides now. Apparently, Qatar changed the terms of the proposal that was discussed with Israel, when they presented whatever they did to Hamas, without consulting Israel of course. So basically Hamas agreed to some fantasy concocted by Qatar, not any meaningful proposal negotiated by Israel. The CIA Director William Burns was aware of this, but did not inform Israel. So Burns let the story break, without any comment, that Hamas was NOT agreeing to some meaningful proposal, but some fantasy concocted by Hamas’ major financial backer. So Hamas agreed to some fabricated fantasy dreamed up by Qatar and had no basis in reality. In any case, Israel dispatched a negotiating team to Cairo to see if any kind of deal could be reached. Most bets here are that nothing will happen other than more bluffing from Hamas. And the government and top IDF officials are saying that the current operations will continue.

Despite the major rocket attack on the Kerem Shalom Aid border crossing two days ago, Israel announced that it will re-open for aid tomorrow… until Hamas decides to send rocket attacks again. In fact, more rockets were launched against Kerem Shalom this morning. And the US Armed Services announced that the floating pier they deployed is now ready for operation. I hope that Hamas doesn’t destroy it, like they do all the other attempts to provide aid. It has a real chance of working.

In a very timely editorial, the editorial staff of the Wall Street Journal placed this opinion piece on their newspaper today. You should really find a way to read it if you can. My favorite quote in the piece is this one in which they are quoting some senior Israeli official they spoke with, but don’t identify - “This Administration (sic Biden’s) never supports anything we do until we do it.” In October the White House privately opposed any ground invasion of Gaza. It came around when Israel did what it had to do—as it’s doing now. Then it goes on… “Rafah hosts Hamas’s leaders, four terrorist battalions, hostages and border crossing with Egypt, from which it controls incoming aid and smuggles in military supplies. It is the crucial city for the terrorist group’s future. Only when Rafah is in danger of falling will Hamas be ready to hand over its remaining hostages. After Israel announced the civilian evacuation on Monday, Hamas finally moved fast to submit a counteroffer. Interesting what real pressure can accomplish. Recall that after Israel blitzed Gaza City in November, Hamas released 105 hostages for a breather. …. If Mr. Biden wants a cease-fire that matters, he will support Israel and let Hamas remember what it’s like to negotiate with its back against the wall.”