Today’s photo is a colorized photo of the City of Jerusalem taken back sometime between 1900 and 1910. To tell you the truth, for the day I ran out of ideas on a special photo to post. But it shows a landscape of Jerusalem as viewed from the top of the Mount of Olives looking west. There are some things to note. At the time this was taken there was a Jewish majority residing within the Old City walls. There is really nothing existing outside the Old City in Jerusalem showing how sparsely populated the area was at the time. The Zionist pioneers were mostly populating the farm land up near the Sea of Galilee. At the time this photo was taken the area was a part of the Ottoman Empire and viewed as a district of Syria. No Israel, no Palestine. Notice that the top of the Dome of the Rock is grey. It did not become “gold” until the British arrived. The whole area of the Temple Mount, including the Al Aksa Mosque and the Dome of the Rock, were a neglected part of the Ottoman Empire bearing no real significance. The British, after 1917, brought in Armenian craftsmen who were known for their skills in ceramic tile. These imported workers, not muslims, were largely responsible for making the Dome of the Rock into a monument.
Hamas Rockets
This morning, sirens went off in the Israeli town of Sderot. One empty building was hit, but no injuries. The rocket was fired from Jabaliya. Reports suggest that Hamas is unloading its rockets before the IDF enters and destroys them and their launchers. See below. Rockets were also fired by Hamas from Rafah at the Kerem Shalom border crossing affecting inbound aid shipments. They landed in open areas without damage or injuries.
Casualties
Yesterday I reported a civilian casualty resulting from Hezbollah anti-tank missiles launched towards the Golan Heights. Today, the government announced that the victim was Elad Fingerhut, 28 (Z’’L) who was killed when a second missile was fired after he came to the aid of the four soldiers injured from the first missile. This is a common tactic that was deployed in Iraq against US troops and in Gaza against IDF troops. Fire a missile or rocket, wait for medics to come to the aid of those injured and then fire a second round to harm the medics. I also reported, yesterday, on severely injured IDF soldiers and a civilian contractor from yesterday’s fighting. The IDF announced today that the civilian, Liron Yitzhak, 30 (Z’’L) died of his wounds. And today one casualty was reported by the IDF resulting from combat operations in southern Gaza: Sgt. Eira Yair Gispan, 19 (Z’’L).
Gaza IDF Operations
The IDF distributed more leaflets today in some towns in Jabaliya in order to encourage civilians to evacuate before they launch operations there. Too many rockets have been launched from these areas, including Jabaliya, and Hamas is seen attempting to regroup some of its operatives in these locations. It appears that 50 or more terrorists have been killed in combat operations in Jabaliya operations, which only started about five days ago. It is reported that this is the most intense fighting seen since about mid-March. There are many reports in foreign press arguing that because Hamas pops up to fight again means that the IDF cannot achieve its goal of eliminating Hamas’ ability to strike Israel. Here is one. And here is another. But, it is my opinion that these reports simply indicate a misunderstanding over what we mean when we say our goal is to eliminate Hamas’ military ability to strike Israel. The government and the IDF have made it clear to the Israeli public, that it is not a feasible goal to eliminate 100% of Hamas’ terrorist fighters. And we all acknowledge and understand that. Moreover, we are all prepared for ongoing surgical strikes for years to come, once the battalions are destroyed as fighting forces and we locate the Hamas leadership. And it is acceptable, although not desirable, that even the Hamas leadership can survive but just not inside Gaza, or Judea/Samaria(West Bank). So it does not surprise anyone in Israel that the IDF is back in Zeitoun and Jabaliya processing clean up operations. What surprised us was the evacuation of IDF battalions back in the second half of March. But, it is my assumption that this had something to do with the hostage/ceasefire negotiations. So these so called analysts just do not understand our expectations… my opinion.
Meantime, the IDF announced that it would exit, for now, the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City where it has been conducting operations against terrorist operatives. During operations conducted there in the past week, the IDF uncovered several weapons manufacturing facilities and armories. The largest armory found was inside a school where they found many AK-47s, ammunition, RPGs, explosives and machine shop equipment used to build rockets and launchers. During the operations they estimate that about 40-50 terrorists were killed in combat. You can see some photos from the operation here.
Prime Minister Netanyahu was interviewed today on CNBC. You can view part of the interview here. You can view the entire interview here, but it requires a cable TV subscription to see it. Basically, he tells the interviewer that Israel must enter Rafah knowing that the US disagrees with the operation because the IDF must pursue, to the best of its ability, the elimination of Hamas’ military capabilities to attack Israel. He also said that the Rafah Operation will last weeks, not months. At least to me that is logical and consistent with operations conducted elsewhere in Gaza. The key issue will be what kind of tunnels they uncover traversing the border between Israel and Egypt. If they are as large as some of the rumors in Israel suggest, it will be a considerable undertaking to destroy them. Rumors are that they are very deep and quite wide… enough for automobile traffic.
Lebanon
This afternoon Hezbollah launched 10 rockets into the north western part of Israel. None were intercepted as they all landed in open fields. And this afternoon it fired more than 60 rockets in the direction of an IDF base near Mount Meron. I talked about the historical significance of this site in a previous post. The IDF believes that this large volley of attacks is in response to the successful elimination of another senior Hezbollah commander. Very early this morning IDF fighter jets executed strikes in the vicinity of Tyre on several Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. It appears that they were successful in assassinating a very senior Hezbollah field commander, Hussain Ibrahim Mekky, and his staff. The IDF attributes multiple terror attacks since the start of the War to Mekky. This was confirmed by sources in Lebanon. According to Hezbollah, this brings the dead Hezbollah fighter count to 298. The IDF claims that the real number is likely twice that. You can read more details here as well as view a video of the assassination. You can see a mug shot of Mekky here.
Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, said on Monday in a public broadcast that Lebanon should open its maritime border so that Syrians living in Lebanon can board boats to head to Europe. This report is coming out of El-Ain media in The UAE. But here is an English summary of the report. Apparently, the intention is to blackmail Europe because they promised $1B in aid to Lebanon. Interesting how these countries, including Turkiye, use fellow Arabs as cannon fodder for political and blackmail aims. You would think that their “brothers” would care about them… no?
Jordan/Iraq
The Jordanian army, today, announced that they were able to intercept an attempt by Iranian linked proxies to smuggle weapons through Jordan for the purpose of smuggling them into the West Bank (Judea/Samaria) and to destabilize the Jordanian government. You may recall that in a previous post I reported on attempts by Iranian proxies in Syria near the Jordanian border to smuggle drugs and arms into Jordan in order to provide arms to Iranian linked or Muslim Brotherhood linked militant groups in Jordan. You can read more here.
The Iranian Shi’ite proxy group in Iraq continues to dispatch drones across Jordanian air space for the purpose of attacking Israel. Last night, IDF fighter jets destroyed two such drones. This time in Israeli air space. It is now happening on an almost nightly basis. You can see a video of the operation here.
Yemen
The Houthis claim to have targeted two US military marine vessels in the Red Sea. There was no report confirming or denying the attack from the US Centcom officials.
Egypt
An Israeli delegation led by COGAT, the government division that oversees relations with Gaza & Judea/Samaria Arab communities, primarily the PA, and responsible for ensuring flow of inbound aid to Gaza, was dispatched to Cairo to meet with their Egyptian counterparts. This is intended to reduce the tensions between the two countries and their bellicose Foreign Ministers and, hopefully, lead to more cooperation regarding aid to Gaza.
Turkiye
I really like the President for Life of Turkiye, Tayyip Erdogan. If I was a stand up comic he would provide so much great material. Today he issued a statement claiming that Israel intends to set up a colony in Turkiye if it defeats Hamas in Gaza.
Gaza Aid
The US Army announced that they expect the floating pier to be operational “in the coming days". I must be losing my sense of time as I thought they said that a week ago. You can see an image of the pier here. The report and photo are about a week old.
Nakba Day
The Palestinian Authority, some time ago, declared May 15 Nakba Day. Nakba, in Arabic, translates to something like “tragedy”. On May 15, 1948 David Ben Gurion declared the State of Israel and according to the PA this is a “tragedy”. In most years we have seen massive rioting throughout Judea/Samaria (West Bank). In some years it spread to the Israeli Arab community as well. This year is the most muted year for this day in the calendar that I can remember. Basically, nothing happened. There are many issues related to this day that should prompt a clear thinking person with many provocative questions. I will list some here:
Why is a “tragedy” linked to a celebrated holiday in a different country?
Why is this “tragedy” linked to the creation of the State of Israel? If all they really want is a state of their own then why is the day of tragedy not linked to June 10, which is the Six Day War. That is when Israel captured Judea/Samaria & Gaza.
If the “tragedy” is the “occupation” and it is linked to May 15, 1948 then the tragedy must be NOT the capture of the West Bank, but the fact that Jewish State exists at all, no?
Rather than riot on a day a different country celebrates, doesn’t it make sense to create a holiday for something you can celebrate instead? Like maybe the day that Yassir Arafat arrived in Ramallah and established the Palestinian Authority?
Or, why not declare a Palestinian State and celebrate that day? Israel could not stop that. Maybe it is because whoever made that declaration would be assassinated? After all, if your true goal is to eliminate the Jewish State then declaring your own state in advance of eliminating the Jewish State is “heresy”?
A “Day After” Plan…. or not
The government has come under verbal attack by the US Biden Administration, other foreign leaders and some small Israeli opposition groups for not announcing a plan for the “day after”. As I had mentioned in previous posts, it is very difficult for Israel to do so. Firstly, as long as Hamas has the capability to easily assassinate any competing leader/leadership in Gaza no one will step up to the role. Secondly, the Israeli government cannot trust disclosing plans to the US Administration due to some very bad experiences during the Obama presidency when State Department officials deliberately leaked plans disclosed by Israel to the USA behind closed doors to the press, in order to block Israel’s plans. Most of the officials in the Biden State Department are carry overs from the Obama years so there is little trust. Thirdly, if Israeli originated plans were to be announced, or leaked by State Department officials, no Palestinian leadership could endorse the plans as it would have originated from Israel, which they would reject “out of principle”. Prime Minister Netanyahu pretty much publicly stated these same principals today through a pre-recorded statement you can view here. and Secretary of State Blinken publicly stated, in a press conference in Kiev, Ukraine, today that “Israel needs clear plan for Gaza’s future”. And in late breaking news, Defense Minister Gallant publicly requested that the government openly declare that having Israel, aka IDF, assert military rule over Gaza is NOT one of the options under consideration. Only some of the extreme right wing elements in the country are promoting this crazy idea. Some of them want to restore Israeli settlements in Gaza that were evacuated and destroyed in 2005 when Israel vacated Gaza entirely, leaving it to be ruled by the Palestinian Authority. Insisting that the government make this declaration now could trigger a coalition crisis in the government.
Arms Shipments
The Biden Administration announced today that they will be moving $1B in arms shipments intended for Israel to Congressional Approval process. That was part of the recent bill passed by Congress and the President. The smart munitions bearing more than 200 pounds are not to be included as they are still being held up because of the IDF Rafah Operation. I wonder what kind of disagreements will emerge amongst Democratic Party members sitting on the relevant committees. Thank you, President Biden!!! We hope that some time soon the smart munitions will also be released.
Foreign Workers in Israel
Primarily as a means of providing economic relief to Arabs living in Gaza and Judea/Samaria, Israel had a policy of admitting workers, on a daily basis, into Israel to work mostly in the construction industry. Each worker had to apply for a permit, in Arabic, and receive permission which would be granted on an annual basis. As you might guess, after October 7 Israel had to re-think this policy. Today the government announced that they would accelerate the process of enabling up to 300,000 foreign workers into Israel to replace that work force. Many of these foreign workers come from India, Romania, Moldova, Thailand, Philippines. Typically they will work for 3-5 years and be able to save enough to purchase a home in their home country. Their wages are often legally protected and they are provided some level of benefits, including medical care while in the country.
Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption Legislation
The debates regarding drafting the ultra-orthodox into the IDF have come alive again. When this government was formed, Prime Minister Netanyahu needed the votes from the two ultra-orthodox political parties in order to form his government. Together, the two parties represented about 16% of the votes cast. In the original agreements between the Likud Party and the two ultra-orthodox party, the new government was to institute some legislation that would cast this draft exemption into the form of a permanent law. But, this was superceded by the events around October 7. The head of the National Unity Party, which is not officially a part of this government but joined in the aftermath of the war to help the country navigate through the war, had previously proposed a plan for drafting the ultra-orthodox. Now, the Netanyahu government says that it has resurrected that plan and intends to submit it for passage by the parliament. However, Benny Gantz, the head of the National Unity Party is crying “foul” (and it is my opinion that he is right). He insists that his previous plan was intended to be a temporary stop gap, but events following October 7 demonstrate that the country needs something permanent.
First I will try to summarize the basic principles of the “new” plan which has the endorsement of Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant. Currently about 66,000 young ultra-orthodox me are of draft age and receive exemptions. In addition, there are about 35-40,000 muslims that also receive an exemption. In the rest of the population, draft age youth MUST either draft into the army OR serve in a National Service role for 2-3 years in places like hospitals, schools, non-profits, etc. We have about 7 National Service young women assisting at the Lone Soldier Center, for example. I list the basics of the “new” plan here:
an absolute majority of young people must serve their country,
a “unified recruitment directorate” is to be established to oversee exemptions and determine where draftees will serve - IDF or other. Non IDF tracks would include “recognized security (e.g. border police), emergency (i.e. ambulance, clinics, hospitals) and charities (e.g. Lone Soldier Center, psychological aid, foster care, orphanages, etc.),
each track will be adapted to the cultural needs of the diverse population constituted in the state. So a muslim Israeli could choose National Service and serve in a clinic in their community, or a school in their community.
within each of the communities not serving now, the percentage of those that serve will increase over an initial period of a 6-8 years until all are serving. BUT, within the ultra-orthodox community there will be a small number (not specified, but probably 1-2 thousand) who will continue to study without serving,
And the “old” plan being pushed by the current government looks something like this:
age of exemption for ultra-orthodox males will be lowered from the age of 26 to 21. This sounds counter-intuitive since the government would be providing an exemption at a younger age. But they argue that this will cause some ultra-orthodox to leave the world of study and enter the work force at a younger age. They argue that it would result in an increase in interest in ultra-orthodox drafting as it is a way for them to earn a living.
As one can see, the government is being a bit disingenuous by presenting this plan as it doesn’t do anything, in a clear fashion, to draft the ultra-orthodox. Nor does it do anything to engage youth in other sectors of Israeli society into serving the country in some fashion. My guess is that it will not satisfy the requirements set out by the Supreme Court.
Prime Minister Netanyahu is backed into a corner on this issue of ultra-orthodox enlistment. The Supreme Court has given the government a deadline by which they must have a solution in place with a law passed/implemented. He has promised his ultra-orthodox coalition partners that he will do what he can to extend the exemptions. But, there are many members of his own party, The Likud, that argue circumstances have changed and the ultra-orthodox must do some kind of service. So, as the “old” plan moves through the legislation committee process, we should learn if there are enough Likud Members of Parliament to block the passage of this “old” law. If that happens, it is likely that this government will “fall” and the country will have to go to new elections. Personally, I think that the country would benefit from new elections, but not now. This is my opinion, only. I, for one, do not think it wise to go through the arguing and bitter process of a campaign, along with a Lame Duck government while we have battalions of IDF soldiers fighting daily in Gaza. But my opinion will not matter.
Defense Minister Gallant, a prominent member of the Likud Party, announced that he will not support the current ultra-orthodox legislation being promoted by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Gallant, in my eyes, is a hero!!
A Bit of Sarcasm
There is an Israeli TV show called Eretz Nehederet (translates to “Wonderful Country”) that is something like Saturday Night Live - sarcastic humor on current events. They typically launch skits making fun of ministers or politicians in the government, which make great subject material. Here is a recent skit, 3 min long, they created regarding the Pro-Hamas protests/riots continuing on University Campuses.
In Your Copious Spare Time…
And you might find some of this worthwhile reading, viewing or listening:
More than 80 former senior US Military Leaders drafted a public letter that was published in the New York Times addressing support for Israel and the IDF. You read, rather short, here and here.
And here is a rather disturbing pair of articles that, when read together, suggest a fairly nefarious strategy in play by the Biden Administration. Here and here. I absolutely believe the analysis in the second article appearing in Foreign Affairs as Hamas would love to create an environment like Hezbollah enjoys in Lebanon. And that is, only focus on fighting in a jihadi war without administrative responsibility for a large population.
And here is a short read going into more detail about the casualty figures reported by the UN and Hamas, that I broke on Sunday.
And finally, here is a truly incredible, but long, podcast on Sam Harris podcast show - Making Sense. This is an interview with John Spencer, on the faculty of West Point, and an expert on urban warfare. Truly worth listening to if you can find the time. On Spotify as well.