October 233, 2023, "The War"
October 233, 2023, "The War"
My 181st post on The War
This statue, and there are variations of it, ordinarily represents justice. The scales are intended to symbolize a balance applied to hearing arguments and facts. The blindfold symbolizes that there is no bias. Justice is applied equally. And the sword represents truth and the enforcement of the rule of law. Well today the International Criminal Court ICC made a total mockery of justice and of themselves. The balance trays are empty. Their simple minds tried to place Hamas and Israel into the same category. But they only showed what fools they really are to the civilized world. They will regret the idiocy of the actions of the ICC Prosecutor today and for many years to come. In effect, they have made their proceedings meaningless and without merit. Never before in history, has a country that was so brutally attacked responded while fighting an urban based war, with its adversary hiding behind civilians and in tunnels like Israel, while achieving a combatant to non combatant kill ratio nearly 1:1. No army has ever achieved that in the world. And in return our leaders are placed in the same category as Muammar Gaddafi, Vladimir Putin, Abdallah Banda and others… Absolutely pathetic. Read more about it in International section below.
Hamas Gaza Rockets
This morning one rocket launched from northern Gaza landed in an open area near the border. No damage or injuries.
Casualties
No IDF casualties were reported in the past 24 hours.
Gaza Operations
Earlier I expressed concern regarding the IDF operations in Zeitoun and Jabaliya over the past week as the IDF uncovered tunnels and facilities it didn’t find in previous operations there. I could understand how Hamas combatants can easily re-group but I was worried about how much of their infrastructure is either still in Gaza or was simply missed by the IDF. A partial explanation emerged today when the IDF said that in its previous operation in Jabaliya the tunnels they uncovered were used as command and control systems by the organized Hamas Brigades. They intentionally avoided entering them at that time. Now that the brigades have been broken apart, it is less dangerous to enter those tunnels. One of the casualties reported yesterday took place in a Jabaliya tunnel.
Operations in Jabaliya continue. During the past week the IDF uncovered a major armory complex inside a large UNRWA facility. Read more here. It found many other armories, rocket launchers and facilities used to attack the IDF. During the course of these operations there were many engagements with armed Hamas combatants. Today the IDF announced that they estimate that at least 200 Hamas combatants have been killed during operations in Jabaliya in the past 1 ½ weeks.
The IDF announced today that it estimates that nearly 950,000 people have evacuated Rafah for the humanitarian zones. That suggests that about 300,000 remain. Here is a very good analysis of the operation and status. The Rafah Operation did not start until May 8. So about 80-85% of the people have evacuated in less than two weeks. Except for the Hamas combatants hiding amongst the evacuees, all of them are moving to al-Mawasi which is a humanitarian area along the beach. Again, the US Army said it would take 3 months. Either the advice from the US Army is too politicized (by the Biden Administration) or it is just bad advice. They advised the IDF at the onset of the war not to enter Gaza at all. But somehow the IDF was to magically snap its fingers and the Hamas combatants would disappear into the “ether”. Here is one take on the US attitude regarding the Rafah Operation sent to me by one of you, my readers.
The IDF has still not expanded its operations towards central Rafah, choosing to consolidates its positions in eastern Rafah, while moving along the “Philadelphia Corridor”, that strip of land adjacent to the Gaza border with Egypt. It is my guess that from there they move in tandem, at some point over the next week or so, into central Rafah for the purpose of finishing off the remaining Hamas brigades (some of whom undoubtedly escaped to northern Gaza) and uncovering the tunnels into Egypt. The IDF estimates that 130 Hamas combatants have been killed so far in Rafah. Dozens of tunnels have been uncovered, including some rather large ones. Special units of the IDF are mapping out these tunnels now. Hopefully, we will see some videos next week of what they found… before they destroy them.
In targeted assassinations, several Hamas leaders and commanders were killed today in Gaza. On Sunday, Zaher al-Houli, a senior police officer in central Gaza was killed in a drone strike. He also was a commander in Hamas’ military wing as a liaison to other terrorist groups and launching attacks inside Israel. Earlier, on Saturday, the IDF assassinated Rami Khalil Faki who was a top officer in the Nuseirat police (a town in central Gaza) and a member of Hamas’ military wing. He commanded a force of armed terrorists bearing responsibility for other attacks against Israelis. Besides him four of his staff members were also killed. And in eastern Rafah, a tactical commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad was killed.
Lebanon Operations
Hezbollah fired more than 15 rockets throughout the day, with one successful hit on the Biranit IDF army base in the north. An IDF soldier was lightly injured. Reconnaissance unit of the IDF spotted Hezbollah combatants entering a known facility used by the terrorists and called in an airborne attack on the facility. Hezbollah, afterwards, announced that five of its members were killed in the strike.
Last night IDF fighter jets conducting attacks on multiple Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon.
Syria Operations
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights says that today some foreign entity struck two pro-Iranian positions in the Homs Area of Syria, a bit north of Damascus. This area is controlled largely by both Iranian sympathizers and Hezbollah. Apparently the missile strikes killed six pro-Iran combatants. You can see a short video here.
Gaza Aid
Aid transiting through the US built pier has been halted for the past two days after the incident on Saturday when 11 out of the 16 trucks were commandeered by armed terrorists before they reached a UN warehouse. In principle, the pier is supposed to enable about 150 trucks full with aid each day. You can read about it here in Al-Arabiya.
Hostages
Those four bodies of hostages found late last week were found in a tunnel in Jabaliya while IDF infantry during the process of mapping out the tunnel by the IDF.
The Israeli Government is considering sending a delegation to Doha, Qatar as there is apparently a new idea to be presented by the Israeli negotiators.
International
The big news of the day was the announcement by the Prosecutor’s Office of International Criminal Court requesting arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. These arrest warrants have not yet been granted by the ICC. The Prosecutor for the ICC came to Israel on December 3, 2023, visited with officials and took a tour of the communities attacked by Hamas on October 7, 2023. The Israeli Government had been in touch with the Prosecutor’s Office and was led to believe that representatives would come to visit. Here is a video of the announcement of the charges. Technically what he has done is filed applications for warrants to arrest Netanyahu and Gallant for the purpose of standing trial. His charges against them are:
causing extermination,
causing starvation as a method of war, including the denial of humanitarian relief supplies and
deliberately targeting civilians in conflict.
The reality is that:
Because Israel’s court system is independent of the legislative and executive branches of the government it has jurisdiction to prosecute and pursue citizens and government officials that violate humanitarian laws. By its own ICC bylaws, the principle of independent court that does investigate and takes action adheres to the principle of complementarity. As such, the ICC does not have jurisdiction. Before filing charges they must (should) prove that the Israeli courts are not independent and do not take into account international humanitarian laws.
Before filing charges the court must also show that the IDF does not investigate illegal actions on its own and when it finds violations does not take action. This also cannot be proved by the Prosecutor and the ICC. While it is not probably 100% of the time successful, the pursuit of violators of the conduct of war and internal IDF regulations are, in general, pursued and prosecuted.
In terms of their charge about starvation, not a single Gazan non-combatant has died of hunger in the past eight months of warfare.
There is also NO reasonable cause to make the charge of “targeting civilians”. First of all, there is ample proof that the IDF warns non-combatants in advance of an operation on their home or neighborhood, giving them time to evacuate. They do this by dropping leaflets and making active phone calls. This is all well known. The Prosecutor has to prove that there is deliberate intent to murder civilians.
Moreover, the combatant:non-combatant ratio is about 1:1.2 and slowly reaching 1:1.1. This has never happened before in urban combat. Rather than making charges against Israeli officials, the IDF should be commended on accomplishing something that has never been accomplished before in the history of mankind.
France was just in Chad, USA had operations in Iraq, Afghanistan where the hunger was just as great and the civilian casualties were much higher,
Israel was prepared to cooperate with the court and was expecting the prosecutor to arrive with his staff this month to continue discussions, investigations and dealing with follow up questions. But the Prosecutor and his staff decided on their own not to follow up with the meetings.
Either this is outright racism and anti-semitism, which should be condemned by the world or, at a minimum, it is absolute hypocrisy. The USA Army and its coalition in fighting Iraq in 1992 never achieved such a ratio between combatants and non-combatants. Nor did France or the USA during their respective Vietnam Wars. Nor did the USA and coalition during the Iraq War starting in 2002. The combatant to non-combatant death rate during fighting in Afghanistan, which was not even an urban war, was much, much worse than this Gaza War.
So, if it is not outright racism and anti-semitism, any future war fought between a country adhering to International Rules of War vs. an entity that couldn’t care less (e.g. most Jihadi organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah, Al-Qaeda, Iran, Houthis, etc.) must be applied as well. So any future conflict involving any Western Power will be handcuffed and judged in the same way. The Jihadis must be thanking Allah for this great blessing.
Finally, if adhering to the International Rules of War means nothing to the ICC, why shouldn’t Israel just start blanket bombing Gaza? If we are being accused anyway, why not just eliminate the threat from the air? OBVIOUSLY, I do not mean these actions should be taken. In Israel, “we answer to a higher authority”. We must adhere to our own precepts so we can maintain our own sense of justice and sense of right.
I think that the best response from a Western Leader is from none other than former Prime Minister of Israel Natftali Bennett. Please take the time to listen to his 1 ½ minute address here. I think that he does a good job capturing the attitude of most of us here in Israel.
Many leaders of Western Countries issued condemnations of the ICC decision, including President Biden, Secretary of State Blinken, British Prime Minister Sunak said the arrest warrants “aren’t helpful”. Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala calls the ICC prosecutor’s decision “appalling and completely unacceptable.” Israel’s President Herzog called the decision “beyond outrageous … Taken in bad faith, this one-sided move represents a unilateral political step that emboldens terrorists around the world and violates all the basic rules of the court according to the principle of complementarity and other legal norms”. Even leader of the opposition Yair Lapid said “It is not possible to issue arrest warrants against Netanyahu, Sinwar and Deif. There is no such comparison, we cannot accept it and it is unforgivable”. Minister Gantz, who is a member of the War Cabinet but likely to exit the government soon, said “The State of Israel is waging one of the just wars fought in modern history following a reprehensible massacre perpetrated by terrorist Hamas on the 7th of October …. While Israel fights with one of the strictest moral codes in history, while complying with international law and boasting a robust independent judiciary – drawing parallels between the leaders of a democratic country determined to defend itself from despicable terror to leaders of a bloodthirsty terror organization is a deep distortion of justice and blatant moral bankruptcy. The prosecutor’s position to apply for arrest warrants is in itself a crime of historic proportions to be remembered for generations.” Labour Party said “the State of Israel will not and cannot accept this decision”.
Israeli Muslim Leader of the Ra’am Party, represented by about 5 (out of 120) seats in the current parliament, just returned from a visit to the UAE where he met with senior Emirati officials. His party, although publicly affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood, is the only party that joined a government coalition doing what normal political parties do, insisting on support for his constituents. He was in the last government and set an historical precedent. Like Saudi Arabia, the UAE claims it is willing to assists both financially and militarily to stabilize Gaza, if Israel creates a path and timeline to a Palestinian State. Most of the Israeli public would not support such a thing at this point, but one can never say never… And, I think, that it is possible to envision such a process if it is slow and there are clear milestones required by the governing body of such a “state” that it must meet along the way. And if it doesn’t then the process could be reversed…. But that is probably too much to ask…
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan continued his meetings with Israeli officials today. He met with Defense Minister Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevy to get an update on the Rafah Operation - including non-combatant evacuation - as well as the humanitarian assistance. Gallant also raised the subject of Hezbollah saying that the current situation cannot continue.
Iran
Yesterday I reported that a helicopter crashed in north eastern Iran carrying President Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian. Today it was announced that both are dead. First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber was appointed as temporary President.
Politics/Demonstrations
Yesterday I reported that a father of five victims of the October 7 massacre was physically attacked by a counter demonstrator at Saturday night’s demonstration in Tel Aviv. The man suspected of the attack has been questioned and released to house arrest. He will not be able to leave the country until after his court case.
Intents protests took place in Jerusalem today demanding that the government step down. Police, investigating some of the more violent members of the protest uncovered gasoline, rags, empty bottles and tires in three of the vehicles pointing to the possibility that some of the protesters were intending to commit arson. An investigation is underway.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant is coming under increasing verbal attacks by rank members of his own Likud Party. This is a common tactic, often encouraged in the background by Prime Minister Netanyahu. He has done this kind of thing before. They are mad that Gallant, last week, stood up to insist that a viable “day after” plan be assembled that does not involve the IDF to occupy and control Gaza.
In Your Copious Spare Time…
And here is a fairly good analysis of all the talk about recognizing a Palestinian State appearing in the Jordan Times. I don’t agree with everything, but the author understands the issues quite well, I think.
Here is an article in Tablet Magazine that castigates the Biden Administration for holding Israel back and deliberately trying to cause it to “lose” the war. It borders on conspiracy theory, but it also provides much factual background information.
Here is an article along with a Hezbollah produced video, with musical accompaniment, about a successful attack that downed a large Israeli observation balloon. It has already been launched back into the air.