October 242, 2023, "The War"

My 189th post on The War

Today’s Image

Meet Dr. Baxtiyar Baram, a Kurdish orthopedic surgeon who entered Gaza as part of humanitarian NGO mission of four doctors to assist local doctors in caring for injured Gazans. Baram is the gentleman on the right of the screen image. Seth Frantzman reported on this today in The Jerusalem Post. Seth spent several years in Kurdistan during the major battles with ISIS there. Baram was interviewed on Kurdish TV. The gentleman on the left is the interviewer. It is a great interview, that beats most of the junk you see on US cable network news. This interview is not something you hear everyday and I highly recommend you watch it. It lasts 15 minutes. The interview is conducted in Kurdish, but the post has English subtitles. The Kurds are a distinct culture, nation if you will, that spans the area from eastern Turkiye, through northern Syria, much of northern Iraq and a large part of western Iran. They are a very old and distinct people.

For those of you unable to find the time to watch this, here are a few snippets from the interview:

• He says that Hamas hides its commanders, combatants and arms in the Gaza hospitals like Israel has been reporting,

• He says that that the hospitals have restricted, VIP, areas that are reserved to service only Hamas officials and their “friends”,

• According to him only 10% of the people truly support Hamas… but that is purely anecdotal,

• There are many “mafia like” groups that are exploiting the situation to take advantage of the population in Gaza. He argues that many of them operate with the knowledge, and to some degree support, of Hamas

• Cigarettes are selling for $15 each (not a pack, a single cigarette) in the black market.

Hamas Gaza Rockets

No rockets launched from Gaza crossed over into Israeli territory in the past 48 hours.

Casualties

The IDF reports three casualties resulting from combat in Rafah: Staff Sgt. Amir Galilove 20 (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Uri Bar Or 21 (Z’’L) and Staff Sgt. Ido Appel 21 (Z’’L). They died from an explosion in a booby trapped building.

Gaza Operations

We are starting to learn more details about the operations in Rafah. The IDF announced that they uncovered a large tunnel within 100 meters of the Egyptian border crossing. The entrance to that tunnel let to a network that was 1 ½ km long (~1 mile). Inside the tunnel they found connections to other tunnels at various depths and some isolated with blast proof doors. They also found living spaces and bathrooms, besides the usual arms storage facilities and rocket launching systems. Here you can see a short video showing the tunnel and some of the facilities uncovered by the IDF there. The video does not appear to play on its own. I recommend you expand it to full screen and then manually move the progress indicator to different frames o see the details. The red markers show the various entryways into the tunnel along its length. And here it is on the IDF web site.

The IDF announced that it now controls the full length of the Philadelphi Corridor, the length of the border with Egypt. Probably by early next week they will have full control. So far they have located 20 tunnels that cross into Egypt that have been likely serving as weapons smuggling facilities. Some of the tunnels were already known to the IDF, and others were discovered for the first time. Some have already been demolished, and Israel has also been updating Egypt on the developments. At least 80 entryways to these tunnels have also been uncovered. Destroying these tunnels is one of the key missions of the Rafah Operation. The IDF troops also identified many, more than 40, rocket launchers along this border area. Tactically the launchers are concentrated along the border as Hamas believed that the IDF would not strike, from the air, facilities so close to Egypt. All these rocket launchers were found within simple viewing distance, no binoculars needed, from the Egyptian border. I guess that the Egyptians approve…

Some reports have appeared in the US press that it was found out that the two small missiles used in last Sunday’s attack were manufactured in the USA. Israel, said openly from the onset, that they used 17kg smart munitions in the attack. But those weapons did not directly cause the fires and deaths being reported, but a secondary explosion. Specifically, Israel used GBU-39s which are used for limited operations intended to minimize civilian casualties as the actual explosive payload is smaller, typically 17 kg. Reports on CNN are confirming this. The headline of this report is intentionally misleading as it implies that the strike was directed at the Rafah tent camp which was not the case at all. But those of you who have been following know what I think of the major US cable news networks and mainstream newspapers… The two GBU-39 missiles targeted a Hamas building where two senior Hamas commanders were meeting with other combatants. Here you can see a more detailed explanation of these missiles and how they work. As you can see in the video the explosions are contained and limited in scope. The only way it could have impacted civilian facilities located more than 130 meters away would have been if there were secondary explosions of some kind. I discussed all this yesterday.

While IDF troops and tanks were expanding operations into Rafah, they received distress calls from residents of one neighborhood, Tel Al-Sultan, where drones were active. The IDF pulled back troops and suspended drone operations to allow the residents to evacuate. The plan is to resume operations tomorrow afternoon after he residents move out of harm’s way.

Operations in Jabaliya have come to a close, until the next time. IDF infantry located many tunnel entrances, dozens of rocket launchers and an arms storage facility right next to a mosque. I guess this makes it convenient to fire missiles into Tel Aviv and yet make it for prayers. But, before we leave the subject of Jabaliya here is a very interesting and important item. In this post on X, the author points out in the photos taken by the IDF of armaments uncovered during searches in various armories in Jabaliya, explosive charges that include M112 demolition charges. These charges consist of a compressed block of C-4 wrapped in plastic. They are manufactured by a US company in Tennessee. By US law, each batch sold is serialized so they are traceable. Those pictured in the X posting can be traced to batches sold to the Egyptian Army. So either they were stolen from Egypt or were sold by the Egyptian Army to Hamas.

And here is a report documenting how Hamas literally robbed money from banks within Gaza. According to the report they stole hundreds of millions of shekels. A New Israeli Shekel is worth about $0.28. I read a version of this in Hebrew and the actual amount is mis-quoted. It is closer to 500,000 NIS, which is about $155k. But it does suggest that Hamas is running out of cash to finance its ongoing operations. I wonder how the citizens will react when they realize there is no money in their savings or checking accounts?

Lebanon Operations

Early this morning, Israeli fighter jets intercepted a “suspicious aerial target” launched by Hezbollah towards the northernmost Israeli town of Rosh Hanikra. There are beautiful naturally carved limestone caves at Rosh Hanikra. The target was shot down over the sea so I presume that it was a drone, either kamikaze or missile bearing.

This afternoon IDF artillery struck several rocket launching sites in southern Lebanon. This evening IDF fighter jets conducted several missile strike missions on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon including sites from where rockets were recently fired.

Yemen Operations

Iran’s Tasnim news agency reports that the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have provided and trained Yemen’s Houthis on the use of their Ghadr sea-launched ballistic missile. This official mouthpiece for the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran wrote

Now, the missile… has become a weapon capable of presenting serious challenges to the interests of the United States and its main ally in the region, the Zionist regime.

Maybe I am just naive, but this sounds a lot like a declaration of war against the USA to me.

And also today, the Houthis claim they shot down yet another MQ-9 US UAV. I think that this brings the count to 8 or 9. These are not cheap UAVs. I would think that the US Army would be scrambling to find a way to avoid the surface to air missiles launched by the Houthis.

Yesterday I reported on a ship that was hit by two Houthi missiles with damage and the boat taking on water. That is never a good thing. The boat has been identified as a Greek owned ship, called Laax, that was on its way to a port in the United Arab Emirates. It appears that the captain, crew and owners are not responding to requests for more details. That probably means that the problem is manageable. Today, a second ship was hit by Houthi launched missiles. It is a Greek owned commercial ship bearing a Marshall Islands flag. It is damaged but, apparently, not serious enough to prevent it from reaching its next port of call. Radio reports from the crew said that the ship was taking on water. So I presume that the water pumps on board are capable of dealing with the water.

Syria/Iraq/Jordan/Egypt

Tonight, Syria’s SANA news agency is reporting that their air defense systems were engaging with “enemy aircraft” over the area of Homs. Homs is located about 20 km northeast of the Lebanese north eastern border.

Aid

It appears that the USA is not giving up on its temporary pier, which went down again yesterday as parts of it broke away under heavy swells. Here is a report and summary from the BBC. I was hoping this pier would help the aid situation, but I am not confident that they will figure out a way to operate it properly. The weather conditions are not unusual for this time of year.

International

French President Emmanuel Macron spoke with PA President for Life Mahmoud Abbas today in a phone call urging him to reform his “government” with the prospect of recognition. It is still quite opaque to everyone what a “reformed” Palestinian Authority means. For that matter, it is not clear to me what it means to “recognize” the State of Palestine. In the case of Ireland, Spain and Norway they said that they recognized it within specific borders - 1948 borders with East Jerusalem as its capital. But there is no way that the PA would announce these borders to their public as they have rejected this more than once. Oh well…

Nikki Haley is still here. Yesterday she went up north to see the border with Lebanon and wrote on one of the artillery shells “Finish Them”. During World War 2 this was a common practice, that is writing messages to the enemy on artillery. Today she met with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Minister Benny Gantz, discussing the threats from Hamas and Iran. Also US Senator Lindsay Graham is here visiting. Today he met with Prime Minister Netanyahu and some of his senior advisors. In the meeting Graham called the ICJ President Nawaf Salam of Lebanon a “raving antisemite”. This is the international court that is hearing the case of “Genocide against the Palestinians” brought to the court by South Africa. Late last week, after hearing South Africa demand that the court demand that the IDF cease its operations in Rafah, ruled that Israel must protect the non-combatants throughout any operations in Rafah and the rest of Gaza.

Our “good friend” President for Life of Turkiye, Tayyip Erdogan, issued a statement today saying that Prime Minister Netanyahu is a psychopath and a vampire that feeds on blood. That’s right, I am not making this stuff up. He said just that. A leader of a NATO country accuses our Prime Minister of being a vampire.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken hosted a press conference in Moldova today. Reports indicate that he was emphasizing the fact that Israel has not come up with a “day after” plan. According to him

In the absence of a plan for the day after, there won’t be a day after … A plan one that can actually help ensure the enduring defeat of Hamas — which is a shared objective and should be everyone’s objective — is imperative. A plan that accounts for security in Gaza, that accounts for governance in Gaza, that accounts for rebuilding the lives of the Gazan people.

If only it were so easy…

Politics/Protests

As I mentioned earlier this week, the government is pushing forward legislation regarding the elimination of draft exemptions for the ultra orthodox which the Supreme Court has demanded. But his legislation will not accomplish what the authors say it will. First of all, I am skeptical that it will pass the legislative process as there are members of Netanyahu’s own party who are insisting that the exemptions need to be eliminated. Secondly, this will not satisfy the ruling of Israel’s Supreme Court. I believe that the government is just trying to buy time. In the meantime, the leader of one of the ultra-orthodox political parties (there are two) has issued an ultimatum to Prime Minister Netanyahu threatening to leave the government unless the budgets for paying major salary increases that are targeted at teachers in the ultra-orthodox schools are transferred immediately. I believe that this is a bit of a bluff and posturing in the public. But, again, it will not be possible to pay teachers in the ultra-orthodox schools one basis for salary and those in the secular schools a lower salary.

Yesterday you read about my reports about some of the corruption being identified with ministers in this government - Transportation Minister Miri Regev and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. Today many diplomats within the Foreign Ministry have started going public in their criticisms of their boss, Foreign Minister Israel Katz. Katz is taking actions in response to foreign natures that borders on childishness. In response to Ireland’s recognition of Palestine he publicly threatened to close the Israel Embassy in Dublin. On social media Katz, in response to Spain’s move to recognize Palestine, he posted a video merging footage of Hamas’ attack on October 7 with flamenco dancers. By the way, the ministers in these two countries are also childish in many of their statements…. but we are above the “monkey see, monkey do” approach to diplomacy. Again, this is just another example of immature and inexperienced ministers in this government.

In Your Copious Spare Time…

• Here is an editorial from the staff on the Wall Street Journal describing the recent actions of the International Criminal Court. If you can get past the paywall it is worth the read.

• Here and here is a short, but interesting read. It appears that a Lebanese NGO had invited the International Criminal Court ICC to investigate alleged war crimes it says were committed by Israel on its soil. But the Lebanese government nixed the idea because they were afraid that the ICC would quickly uncover war crimes committed by either Hezbollah or other para-military groups within Lebanon. I wonder if Amal Clooney (Lebanese) would have filed a report on this? Or if the President of the ICJ, a Lebanese lawyer, would have interfered?

• And here is an analysis/editorial from Eugene Kontrovich on the consequences of the ICC and ICJ actions against Israel on the overall dynamics and long term implications for the region. One key conclusion is that these actions will now encourage other Palestinian factions to attack Israel in the bloodiest way possible because it has now become obvious that this is the way to achieve political aims.