October 245, 2023, "The War"
My 191st post on The War
Today’s Image
This is an image captured this evening, Saturday, of the protests demanding recovery of the hostages that took place at a major intersection in Tel Aviv. It surged this evening to 150,000 because of their response to President Biden’s speech on Friday. This is the largest number attending a demonstration at this location since the large judicial reform protests back in 2023. My apartment in Tel Aviv is only about a 5 minute walk from here.
Hamas Gaza Rockets
No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israel in the past five days.
Casualties
No IDF casualties were reported in the past 24 hours.
Gaza Operations
The main activity in Gaza is now taking place in Rafah where troops have found numerous rocket launchers in the center of the city where IDF troops are now active. Using a drone the IDF infantry spotted a home which contained large barrels of explosives that were set as booby traps. You can see the drone footage here and an explanation here. Maybe this is how Hamas stores the explosives, including those that ignited during the assassination of the two senior Hamas commanders last Sunday?
The IDF also announced a focused infantry with air supported raid on a neighborhood in Gaza City, Sabra, was initiated in the second half of last week. It seems that the operation is still active. So far the forces claim to have killed dozens of combatants and demolished a weapons depot. They also located large numbers of weapons and tunnel shafts. This would be the second time that the IDF has entered the neighborhood. The first tie was back in November during the overall Gaza City operation. This is what it will be like for the months ahead…. IDF, using its gathered intelligence, will identify a neighborhood where the terrorists are trying to re-assemble. They will go in with special forces to destroy uncovered military infrastructure and engage with any combatants. They will then withdraw to fight another day. This approach, contrary to what US forces did in Iraq and Afghanistan, avoids the problem of stationary troops in a hostile area quickly becoming targets for snipers, kidnappers, etc.
As part of the IDF operations, Israel is targeting the sources of funding for Hamas. Today, the IDF destroyed a building in Gaza City used by an organization called Al-Noor (My Arabic is marginal, but I think this translates to “The Light”. Nir means light in Hebrew). Al-Noor raised and transferred millions of dollars to Hamas for its terror activities. In a related strike, the IDF assassinated Salami Baraka, an Hamas operative, who served as head of their finance department that funds the “police”. This followed two other assassinations of Hamas officers. A Walid Abed Abu Dalal was killed late last week. According to the IDF he was in charge of the technology department in Hamas’ internal security forces. And a Tareq Darwish, a prominent member of the battalion responsible for the rocket launcher distribution.
Lebanon Operations
Last night, Friday night, IDF fighter jets struck several Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon destroying rocket launching infrastructure and other military facilities.
This afternoon Hezbollah launched a rocket barrage of “Burkan” rockets. These rockets carry a much larger warhead and were targeted at an IDF military base not far from the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona. There was serious damage to housing facilities for the officers at the base, but no injuries. You can see the explosion here. This evening a drone launched by Hezbollah infiltrated Israeli airspace, targeting the coastal city of Acre. It was neutralized using Iron Dome, but sirens went off as there was fear of shrapnel.
Earlier this morning Hezbollah successfully downed, using a SAM Surface to Air Missile, a Hermes model 900 drone over southern Lebanon. This is the second such drone successfully neutralized by Hamas.
Late this evening, reports are coming in from Lebanese media sources that Israeli fighter jets conducted another operation in the Hezbollah controlled Baalbek area near the Syrian border and more than 100 km north of the Israeli border. This area is infested with Hezbollah arms manufacturing and storage facilities.
Yemen Operations
US Military Centcom announced that the Houthis launched two anti-ship ballistic missiles and one drone over the Gulf of Aden, and four drones over the Red Sea. All the drones were destroyed in mid-flight. The anti-ship ballistic missile missed its target and landed in open water.
And later this afternoon, the British Global Maritime Risk Management organization reported that surface to ship missiles were fired by the Houthis near Al Hudaydah in Yemen.
Aid
Last week, Israel assisted in the establishment of a maternity ward, including the supply of additional generators to the International Medical Corp’s Field Hospital.
Tomorrow, discussions between Israel, Egypt and the USA are to start to determine how to re-open the Rafah border crossing to aid trucks. Egypt’s current position is that Israel withdraw its forces from the border crossing. I doubt that Israel would agree to that. It is pretty clear at this state that Egypt has either been turning a blind eye to what has been going on at the border or, worse, been complicit in re-arming Hamas by transactions at the border. Right now, the Palestinian Authority and the IDF jointly operated the Allenby Bridge border crossing with Jordan. I believe that this should serve as the model for the Rafah border crossing.
Hostages/Ceasefire
The big news of the day is the hostage/ceasefire outline announced by President Biden. It appears that this “deal” was developed by the Israeli negotiators in an obvious effort to retrieve the remaining hostages. Here is a video of Biden’s speech. There is a bit of fog in the air regarding this “deal”. It is being presented as an Israeli crafted deal, yet Israeli leaders were only briefed that President Biden intended to deliver a speech based on this “deal” publicly. It is not clear what happens next. Given the way the US Administration presented the “deal” it is based on the last Israeli proposal and is being presented to Hamas by Qatar for a response. The only way I can understand what just happened is that the Biden Administration just took what Israel had last proposed, but was rejected by Hamas, made some changes and presented it to the world without informing Israel that this was going to happen. I could easily be wrong about this, but it is otherwise difficult to understand what just happened.
Based on information published in a Saudi paper, here are the basic terms of what is being called the “Three Stage Deal”:
Stage 1:
In stage 1, the IDF would conduct a partial withdrawal of troops, Hamas releases the hostages, Israel releases imprisoned terrorists and the displaced/unarmed Gazans return to their homes. During this stage negotiations on a permanent cease fire take place.
Stage 1 is targeted to take place over 42 days. It includes the release of 33 female, children, elderly, sick and injured hostages, dead or alive.
For each Israeli female or child hostage, 30 female or child Palestinians in Israeli jails will be released. For each injured/sick hostage of the age of 50, 30 elderly, sick and injured prisoners will be released. For each female soldier, 50 female security prisoners will be released, including 30 serving life sentences and 20 others serving lengthy sentences.
If there are not enough living hostages to meet the number 33, the dead bodies will be released and Israel will release Palestinian minors arrested in Gaza after October 7.
By the 16th day of Stage 1, indirect talks will begin regarding Stage 2. By the 22nd day of Stage 1 Israel is to release all prisoners who were re-arrested after being released in the Gilad Shalit deal. By this time Hamas would have released ½ of the living civilian hostages.
According to the plan humanitarian aid during Phase 1 will expand to 600 trucks a day.
Stage 2 & 3:
During Stage 1 negotiations an agreement on the exchange of male hostages for male prisoners will be concluded. Execution of this future agreement would take place during Stage 2, which is expected to last 42 days.
Also, an exchange of dead bodies will take place in Stage 2.
A 3-5 plan for rehabilitating Gaza, overseen by Egypt, Qatar and the UN, will be constructed during Phase 2 and implemented in Phase 3.
The Israeli-Egyptian blockade of Gaza would be lifted during Phase 3.
These are the details being leaked to the press these days either directly or indirectly. I honestly do not know if Israel would agree to these terms. It is pretty much a capitulation to the demands of Hamas, as best we can see.
So far Israeli officials have not released any public response. Members of the Israeli War Cabinet - Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Minister Benny Gantz and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - received copies of the Biden speech hours in advance of its presentation. Reports from the USA are saying that the US Administration is disappointed with the initial private reactions of Minister Gantz. But, I must assume that the basic principles in this “deal” must have been known to members of the War Cabinet earlier. Honestly, this whole process and outcome seems to be very weird from this side of the world. It is not clear who is making this proposed deal, who has seen it earlier, etc.
Prime Minister Netanyahu, made a short public statement after President Biden’s speech on Friday saying that Israel, under no circumstances, would agree to a permanent ceasefire with Hamas in charge of running Gaza. That, by the way, is the overriding position of the Israeli public by a large majority and consistent with each and every poll conducted amongst the population.
Yair Lapid, leader of the opposition, issued a statement on X that the government should accept the “deal” accounted by President Biden. Just so you know, Lapid’s Party, called Yeah Atid, has dropped in popularity significantly since October 7. According to polls, they would drop to half their current size if elections were held today.
Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and Minister of Internal Security Itamar Ben Gvir issued statements that they will consider leaving the government if this “deal” proceeds. They are the two extreme right wing ministers in this government. Opposition leader Yair Lapid has stated that for the purposes of completing an hostage deal he would join the government as it would need the necessary votes in parliament to proceed. But, if this happens then it is only a matter of 1-2 months before this government falls and we go to new elections. Personally, I would prefer to see new elections wait another 1-2 months, at least until the IDF has a chance to complete its operations in Rafah.
Clarifications appearing in the Hebrew Press suggest that, in fact, this is the proposal that Israel had last offered. And it was also clarified that if there is any violation of the ceasefire by Hamas, Israel reserves the right to resume. And, that discussions regarding future phases will only happen after hostages are released as part of Phase Also, in the Hebrew Press it was disclosed that the significance of the three 42 day periods was that it would align the the US presidential elections.
The umbrella organization, The Hostage and Missing Families Forum, representing the families of the Israeli hostages announced they were launching a serious campaign in order to apply pressure on the Israeli Government to accept the “deal”. Yet, around the same time, Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh was addressing an Arab Conference in Beirut, Lebanon. In his speech he said that Hamas would not give up on the demands for a complete IDF withdrawal and a permanent ceasefire.
Hamas issued a statement saying that it viewed Biden’s speech positively and it would negotiate in good faith. It is doubtful that Yihya Sinwar has seen the “deal” so this is probably coming from the Hamas officials sitting in Qatar.
Support for this “deal” is coming from international leaders. President Emmanuel Macron posted, in both Hebrew and Arabic, his support for Biden’s “deal” on his X account. Germany’s Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock as well as the EU chief Ursula von der Leyen also weighed in support for the “deal”, as has British Foreign Minister David Cameron. And President Obama issued a formal statement in support of this “deal”.
International
Mike Johnson, Speaker of the House, and Chuck Schumer, Senate Majority Leader, issued a formal invitation yesterday to Prime Minister Netanyahu to visit Washington and address both Houses of Congress. It is my guess that it must have me with the Prime Minister’s intention to accept the invitation, otherwise it would not have been issued. I regard this as a serious mistake. The Prime Minister’s previous address during the Obama Administration regarding the impending Iran Nuclear deal had no impact on the final outcome and only served to antagonize segments of the Democratic Party. Now, during an election year, the Prime Minister intends to repeat this by appearing in front of Congress. I have spoken with several Israel friends and I can find no one who thinks this is a good idea. That being said, it is my prediction that he will talk more about the need for the USA to “wake up” and lead the free world rather than self destruct from the inside by attacking the premises of Western Civilization. But, what do I know??
In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is a a summary of an academic level analysis of the level of aid getting in to Gaza on a daily basis at the onset of the war. It compares the equivalent of daily calories provided by that aid to the amount published by the UN needed for an average daily consumption requirements. It will undergo peer review soon. If it holds up, it pretty much destroys all these statements and ICC charges against Israel.
And here is an analysis of the mistakes Israel has made over the years regarding its assessment and resolve regarding the growing threat Hezbollah presents in the north. The author is President of the Jewish Institute for National Security of America and a former Defense Department Official in the USA.
As you may recall, about one month ago Hamas attempted to portray the IDF as perpetuating intentional mass murder by its “discovery” of a mass grave outside Shiba Hospital not long after the IDF had found more than 500 Hamas operatives there taking refuge in the hospital. Well here is a detailed analysis of just what happened with this one, of many, false flag attempts by Hamas.
Thanks, Eric for another interesting and informative read.