Today’s Image
This is a photo taken of a very small demonstration by ultra-orthodox students that took place today at a major intersection in Jerusalem. As you can see there are no more than a dozen protestors. The nice gentleman in the middle is holding a sign that say “Telling the Supreme Court to prison and not to the IDF”. At first I thought it was saying that the Supreme Court should go to prison. You can read more about this in the politics/protests section below.
Hamas Gaza Rockets
No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israel in the past six days.
Casualties
No IDF casualties were reported in the past 48 hours.
Gaza Operations
The IDF announced today that IDF infantry troops are conducting operations in the Yabna neighborhood of Rafah, which is the central part of the city. During their sweep they located several Hamas military facilities including weapons storage facilities where they found anti-aircraft machine guns and several rocket launching pits.
Lebanon Operations
Late this afternoon, Hezbollah launched a rocket barrage targeting the northern city of Kiryat Shmona. There was major damage to buildings and two people were lightly wounded from shrapnel. You can see the damage here. This was followed by a barrage of 40 rockets and missiles, and a handful of kamikaze drones fired by Hezbollah at the Israeli city of Metula. Most of these airborne projectiles were neutralized by Iron Dome. Earlier in the day IDF fighter jets carried out a strike against a Hezbollah armory in southern Lebanon. You can catch a video of the strike here, where you will see the secondary explosion caused by the stored arms. The fighter jets also destroyed the sites from where the multiple rocket barrages were fired. But another 15 rockets were launched in an effort to attack the city of Katzrin in the Golan Heights. All landed in open fields. And a barrage of missiles were fired by Hezbollah at the coastal city of Nahariya. No damage or injuries reported. So, by my count today Hezbollah fired no less than 85 rockets, missiles and drones in attacks on Israeli soil. The IDF estimates that since the beginning of the “war” Hezbollah has expended about 5-7% of its accumulated arsenal.
Last night IDF fighter jets conducted strikes in northeast Lebanon where Hezbollah maintains its arms manufacturing facilities. My guess is that they must have hit something important as Hezbollah increased its daily barrage significantly today in response.
Yemen Operations
Early this morning US CENTCOM announced that it shot down a Houthi drone and two of its missiles in two separate incidents in the Red Sea. The incident took place on Saturday afternoon. Later, Saturday evening CENTCOM “successfully engaged” two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis. The missiles had targeted a US Destroyer vessel. Meanwhile, the Houthis claim that one of their missiles successfully hit the USS Eisenhower aircraft carrier patrolling in the Red Sea. There was no response from the US CENTCOM.
Day After
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant says Israel is working on finding a replacement for Hamas’s rule in the Gaza Strip, vowing that the war will not end until the terror group is dismantled of both its military and governmental capabilities. This statement appears to me disconnected from the Biden Hostage/Ceasefire Plan which leaves Hamas in power in Gaza. A month ago, the IDF transferred civilian responsibility for a neighborhood in Gaza City to a leader of one of the “Hamulas” (Arabic for clans). Two days later he was assassinated by Hamas. So I think it will be awhile before something like that is tried again. And the problem with turning this over to the Palestinian Authority is that they will just invite Hamas back in.
Aid
Egypt seems determined to prevent aid from entering Gaza via the Rafah border crossing on the pretext that, in their view, Israel must withdraw from the Gazan side of the border. I do not think that this is going to happen. There is no way that Hamas could have smuggled all the arms and equipment into Gaza if not for the active smuggling going on across that border. I cannot foresee a situation that Israel would allow the situation to return to what it was on October 6 as it is widely viewed that there are significant elements of Egyptian Army complicit in this lucrative smuggling operation.
COGAT, the IDF division responsible for coordinating activities with the Palestinian Authority and Gaza, announced that in total more than 1,858 trucks bearing aid entered Gaza last week. As of now nearly 450 aid trucks are waiting on the Gaza side of Kerem Shalem border crossing for distribution by the international aid NGOs there. COGAT also reported that so far, since the beginning of the war, 3,273 injured and sick individuals have been evacuated from Gaza for medical care in Israel. THAT’S RIGHT, ISRAEL HAS PROVIDED MEDICAL CARE TO CERTAIN MEDICAL CASES IN GAZA THAT THE LOCAL SYSTEM COULD NOT HANDLE. Is that a sign of a country committing genocide?
A committee in parliament passed a bill labeling UNRWA a terrorist organization. While it is mostly true, I fail to see how this accomplishes much of anything productive. But, the government has indicated that it is the effort of a few extremists and will not progress far in the legislative process.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Some level of clarity is emerging in the aftermath of the Biden Policy Speech on Friday. Technically, it is true that the hostage/ceasefire deal presented by Biden was based on a proposal that came from Israel right before the most recent breakdown in negotiations about 3 weeks ago. But, there are two very important differences that seems to be included in Biden’s staged plan:
Israel never agreed to keep to a ceasefire as long as negotiations were underway. That would just be a pretext for Hamas to drag things out in order to re-arm and recruit.
Israel never agreed to a permanent ceasefire. What Israel had proposed was that it would discuss the possibility of a long term ceasefire.
So, like Egypt, another mediator has altered the terms of Israel’s proposal without consulting Israel. When Egypt did that CIA Director William Burns was reported to have gone ballistic as he invested a lot of time and energy to get Israel to the point he did, only to see it “pissed away” by some Egyptian middle man. I guess when your boss does it, it puts a different perspective on things. This also explains why the State Department was disappointed with Minister Benny Gantz’s response to Biden’s Speech. When you change the terms of a proposal without consulting the party that submitted it, what do you expect? Nonetheless, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said today that the Biden Administration expects Israel to stick to “its” hostage deal. The problem is that when you change the terms, it is no longer “Israel’s” deal.
So since it seems that since Biden presented this as Israel’s proposal, the ball is in the court of Hamas. In the meantime, the IDF continues with its operations in Gaza. Most likely Hamas will come back with changes of its own, perhaps demanding a clear commitment to a permanent ceasefire guaranteed by the USA, Egypt and Qatar. This has been their previous position and I see no reason that they will change it. After all, everything is going their way. They don’t care whether their citizens live, die or are seriously injured. In their thinking, if they die they will die a martyr and go to heaven. We will see how this unfolds….
In the meantime, the Biden Administration is trying to position this as if Israel achieved all of its military goals. Unfortunately, that is NOT true. It will take another 4-6 weeks for Israel to complete its operations in Rafah. After that, there will be ongoing raids like that in Jabaliya needed to prevent Hamas from regrouping. But that is a second phase of fighting. But, most importantly, the Hamas leadership must either be exiled from Gaza or eliminated. And the IDF is still far away from accomplishing this.
Last night, Saturday, a statement was released from the Prime Minister’s Office stating
Israel's conditions for ending the war have not changed: The destruction of Hamas military and governing capabilities, the freeing of all hostages and ensuring that Gaza no longer poses a threat to Israel.
It would seem that Netanyahu is squeezed between two positions. The Biden Administration expects Israel to abide by the terms of its “deal”, yet to consumate the “deal” his extreme right wing coalition partners will bring down the government by calling for new elections. Between that and the ultra-orthodox draft exemption issue it would seem that this government is reaching its last remains moments.
International
The predominately muslim populated Maldive Islands announced that Israelis are no longer permitted to visit the Islands.
Chile announced that it wishes to join the ICJ party with South Africa. The Chilean Government announced that the Gaza War has no justification.
Politics/Protests
Today, the government had to defend its lack of a formal policy in the drafting of the ultra-orthodox portion of the population. The lawyer representing the ultra-orthodox/government tried to defend the draft exemption by saying to remove it would interfere with “freedom of religion”. They argued that the rabbis of the yeshiva (religious schools) insist that their students not serve in the IDF. So to say that they must serve is contrary to the instructions of the rabbis, therefore abrogating the “freedom of religion”. Needless to say, that argument did not go very far in convincing anyone. Students from one of the Yeshivot (religious schools) staged a protest by blocking two roads in Jerusalem.
Avigdor Lieberman, leader of the political party Israel Beiteinu, told reporters today that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu offered him the post of Defence Minister over this past weekend. Lieberman used to be Chief of Staff to Netanyahu in his early days leading Likud. But like so many other smart politicians, Netanyahu forced him out. He now runs a “right of center” party that gathers about 6% of the voting public. In previous governments he served as either Finance Minister or Defense Minister, doing a pretty good job at both. It is very believable that Netanyahu would offer him this now. It just shows how low Netanyahu is reaching. It is not that Lieberman wouldn’t make a good Defense Minister. It is that his current Defence Minister, Yoav Gallant, has greater support within Israel than Netanyahu, himself. I find this move disgusting by the Prime Minister. Gallant is one of the few who has put the nation ahead of his own career and ego. And in my view, he has done an excellent job directing the IDF, and he is well liked amongst the troops.
In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is a quick read from one of the better military correspondents in the Israeli English speaking newspapers analyzing the net implications of the Biden “deal”.
Here is a fair analysis of the risks/opportunities offered by the Biden “deal”. It is in The Atlantic and available on Apple News. Here is the link on The Atlantic web site, but it is behind a paywall.
Sensing the end of this government, political analysts are starting to think about the “day after”, not Gaza’s “day after” but Netanyahu’s “day after”. Here is one I thought was particularly relevant.
On Friday, Hezbollah launched a new type of home made rocket that can carry an explosive payload much large than previous generations. It hit an IDF army base in the north and destroyed minor facilities on the base that neither resulted in injuries nor affected the operations at the base. Here is an article about the rocket and a video of the damage.