Today’s Image
These are the four hostages that were deemed killed while in captivity by the IDF today. They are, starting from the upper left and moving clockwise:Chaim Peri - 79 (Z’’L), Amiram Cooper - 84 (Z’’L), Nadav Popplewell - 51 (Z’’L) and Yoram Metzger - 80 (Z’’L). Popplewell is a dual British-Israeli citizen. British Foreign Secretary David Cameron sent his condolences to the family. In addition a young man previously thought to be a hostage, Dolev Yahud - 35 (Z’’L) was found to have been murdered, tortured and burned to death on October 7. His body was unrecognizable, but DNA testing finally determined the identity of the body.
A Brief Interruption
Since I have not found an adequate article posted by a reputable Israeli Political Analyst, that describes the current dynamics I feel compelled to “fill in the blanks”. The demonstrations conducted by the hostage families are, for the most part but not exclusively, the domain of the left of center political spectrum. Also, not all the hostage families participate in these demonstrations for reasons I will detail later. I think it is fair to say that their position on the situation is, and has been:
bring back the hostages at any cost, irrespective of duration of ceasefire, whether Hamas stays in power or not, no matter how many terrorist prisoners from Israeli prisons need to be released,
the problem with this position is that this ignores the concerns of the communities near the Gaza and Lebanese borders who live under a huge security risk if Hamas remains in power,
their answer to this is that this war with Hamas will not end no matter what they say or agree to. They will launch rockets as soon as they are able, and then we can restart the war with them,
that is, no less than the rest of the population, they want Hamas eliminated. But they think that there will always be another day to fight,
while this argument carries a reasonable level of logic, it presumes that Sinwar and the Hamas leadership is stupid, which they are not. They are demanding as part of any agreement that the USA provide guarantees that Israel will not attack in the future. So to accede to their demands (remember “any cost”) means that they can launch an attack at their whim and the USA will have to judge whether or not Israel can attack to establish deterrence.
besides putting the USA in an untenable position, it allows Hamas to build up its arsenal without limits.
Then there are those on the extreme, or not so extreme, right side of the political sphere.
without consideration for International Law they insist that one does not provide aid to an enemy. Therefore, where possible they have tried to interfere with the delivery of aid trucks to the border with Gaza. They have had very, very little success as the IDF intercedes each time,
some members of this community insist that the only way to deter Hamas is by building settlements in Gaza so that Israeli civilians are a deterrence. But this ignores the fact that Israel evacuation Gaza once, in 2005, because of the high costs associated with protecting these communities, and the thinking that evacuating Gaza would buy Israel political capital. The cost consideration is still valid, but it seems that no matter what Israel does it will not buy Israel any good will in the world,
there are two political parties in the current government that represent these positions and have made it difficult for Netanyahu to maneuver in the world of global politics. Without their support, his government will fall and there will have to be new elections.
but few people in the country have any sympathy for Netanyahu’s position because he is the one who invited these parties into his government because he believed he would be able to “manage” them. In hind sight, it is clear he was wrong.
Overall, the majority of people, right or left, in the country blame Netanyahu in one way or another for the current situation. In my view some of this is fair, and some not. It is my view that by pushing forming this narrow right wing coalition he has limited the options of the government. He has also allowed irresponsible and unqualified party members to assume heads of Ministries without having a clue of what to do or how to present oneself in public. Moreover, because he and his party have been in power so long, corruption has ensued in many segments of the government. Also, it was his policies of letting Qatar “buy off” Hamas with money, thinking it would result in quiet. In hind sight those policies were obviously wrong.
However, those that blame him for the war, in my opinion, are not being fair or reasonable. Previously, the policy was that when Hamas launched rockets, the IDF would send in the Air Force, bomb a few Hamas facilities and then call it a day. In 2014, there was a more serious ground incursion but it was limited in scope. I do not believe that had Netanyahu pushed for sending in infantry that the country would have accepted the cost in soldier’s lives for eliminating rocket launches. So it is unreasonable to blame him, in my opinion, for letting the Hamas situation fester.
It is important to understand all this within the context of the Biden-Israel 3 stage deal that is at center stage. I hope that this background helps you in understanding some of the dynamics in play here in Israel.
Hamas Gaza Rockets
No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israel in the past seven days.
Casualties
No IDF casualties were reported in the past 72 hours.
Gaza Operations
Most of the action in Gaza now is focused in Rafah. Today an IDF special forces unit raided a Hamas military complex there where they encountered dozens of combatants. There they found several tunnel entrances as well as armaments -mortars, RPGs, grenades, etc.
And today UNRWA announced that over 1 million people have evacuated Rafah. The USA told Israel it would take four months. It has taken less than three weeks.
Lebanon Operations
This afternoon two kamikaze drones launched by Hezbollah entered Israeli air space. One was intercepted and the other landed in an open field. Neither resulted in serious damage or injuries. Later, IDF artillery targeted several Hezbollah facilities in southern Lebanon. Then, around the same time Hezbollah launched 30 rockets at open fields on the Golan Heights. They were far enough away from real targets that no sirens were triggered. Earlier in the day, the IDF conducted an airstrike assassination of Hussein Sabra while he was driving in his car near the village of Kautherariyet al-Rez. The IDF says that Sabra was leading the efforts to improve Hezbollah’s air defense systems. Here you can see a video of the strike on Sabra.
The Israeli Society for the Protection of Nature announced that Hezbollah rockets have set on fire more than 40,000 acres of nature reserves and agricultural fields.
Yemen Operations
The Houthis launched a ballistic missile this morning targeting the southern city of Eilat. The IDF intercepted it with its home designed Arrow 1 air defense system that was so effective during the Iran attack of 320 airborne missiles/drones in April.
Syria/Egypt/Jordan/Turkey Operations
Iran’s semi-official new agency SNN reported that a senior IRGC advisor was killed in an attack from a fighter jet inside Syria.
According to a report appearing in Al-Arabiya, the Saudi national news outlet, there were loud explosions inside a copper factory near the Syrian city of Aleppo. According to a Syrian NGO, there were 12 casualties, all members of pro-Iranian militias. You can read more about it here.
A Palestinian man from the West Bank city of Tulkarem was arrested as he had a suicide bombing kit in his possession at a border crossing. The Israeli Shin Beet found out, that the man was trained by Hamas while in Turkey to launch suicide attacks inside Israel.
Last week, two IDF soldiers were killed by a targeted terrorist ramming attack in Samaria (West Bank). They were at a border crossing inspecting cars and the terrorist driver pulled out of his lane, accelerated and barreled into the two soldiers. They died from injuries later. Well the assailant turned himself in to the Palestinian Authority “police force”. After holding the attacker for a day, they released him saying that it was not intentional, but an accident. This has infuriated the IDF and I expect them to search and apprehend the terrorist. You can read about it here.
IDF in General
There are reports that Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi has come under harsh criticism by his direct subordinates running the war in Gaza. They are arguing that once again, rather than committing the needed troops to finish the job, they are “treading water”. As you may recall, the IDF essentially pulled troops out of Gaza in late March for no explicable reason. Many in Israel, myself included, are critical of this move as it delayed the entry into Rafah. If the IDF had entered earlier, we would be two months further into the process by now and more in a mode of winding down to the point where we are launching limited missions to eliminate small squads of combatants as they reform. The aid problem would be easier to handle and there would be much fewer civilians at risk.
But, it was the Biden Administration that put the pressure on Israel NOT to go into Rafah. It was a huge mistake to allow the USA to influence our decisions. As I have said before, each time the US Army has come in to provide the IDF “advice” it was bad advice. One view is that this advice was politically driven by the political goals of the Biden Administration, not the military goals. For the sake of the USA, I hope that this is the case. Because, if not it shows that the US military learned little from its fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Day After
In a phone conversation today, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that Israel was determined to dismantle Hamas and find an alternative to govern Gaza. He said that they would seek local leaders on a neighborhood by neighborhood basis that are willing to step up and assume a role first in distributing aid locally and then later taking on a more civilian administrative role. The key to the success of a plan like that is predicated on the reduction of Hamas’ capacity to assassinate any alternative leadership.
Aid
The US State Department announced today that the talks between the US, Israel and Egypt regarding the re-opening of Rafah border crossing were “constructive”. Based upon what I hear, this is “putting lipstick on a pig”. The Egyptians do now want Israel involved at Rafah because the Egyptian Army is financially benefitting a lot from the smuggling trade of arms going on inside the tunnels traversing the border. What I do not understand is that Israel and the Palestinian Authority co-manage the border crossing at the Allenby Bridge with Jordan. Most of the traffic there is designated for the PA, including goods and people. But, the IDF maintains a presence there and often inspects the inbound goods.
Hostages/Ceasefire
There is so much going on in this space that it is hard to keep track. This afternoon, the Biden Administration urged Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani “to use all appropriate measures to secure Hamas’s acceptance of the deal”. Biden “confirmed Israel’s readiness to move forward with the terms that have now been offered to Hamas”,
Israeli negotiators seem to be expressing unusual optimism. Yesterday, Sunday, Israel asked to make some edits to its proposal. The negotiators stated that so far Hamas leaders’ reactions have been positive. However, it is my belief that these perspectives are based on reactions from the Hamas leadership outside Gaza. I believe that the Hamas leadership in Gaza will take a much harsher view as they “see” the world turning against Israel (aka European countries recognizing a Palestinian State, all the International Court activity, etc.) and will think that they have more to gain by waiting.
The Biden Administration has tried to position the “Three Stage Deal” as a way “it has cornered Hamas”. Today, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller says Hamas is the only party blocking a ceasefire from being implemented in Gaza. I do not think that Hamas sees it this way. You corner Hamas by putting all its military infrastructure at risk, not by telling them that they will be allowed to stay in Gaza after the ceasefire and that the ceasefire will be permanent. Finally, if you want to corner Hamas you present the deal as a “take it or leave it deal”. Instead, the Administration has positioned it as an opening position of Israel. Hamas will take this and start pushing more its positions and, we will wait to see how the Biden Administration reacts. If history repeats, they will put pressure on Israel to agree to anything.
There were some who believed that Biden’s announcement on Friday was intended to corner Prime Minister Netanyahu. First of all, I do not think this is the case. And regardless, Prime Minister Netanyahu put himself in this positions and, in so doing, placed the country at risk by having these right wing extremists in his cabinet.
Meantime, support for the “Three Stage Deal” is coming in from all directions. The foreign ministers of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Jordan, and Egypt issued a joint statement expressing their support for it today.
And all the G7 leaders fully endorsed Biden’s “Three Stage Deal”.
On the other hand Iran’s new Foreign Minister denounced the “Three Stage Deal”.
International
It was announced today that Prime Minister Netanyahu will address joint sessions of Congress on June 15. That gives all the Pro-Hamas umbrella organizations behind the University encampments/riots only 12 days to organize. But they are well paid, professionals so I am sure they can pull off a massive demonstration in the US capital.
Politics/Protests
Minister Benny Gantz, who had threatened Prime Minister Netanyahu with pulling his support to the government by June 8, is making sounds like he will continue his role in the War Cabinet because of the new developments on the hostage/ceasefire deal.
In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is an excellent analysis of the “Three Stage Deal” appearing in the Wall Street Journal. If you can get by the paywall it is well worth your time to read.
And here is another survey conducting in Israel assessing the view of most Israelis on who appears to be leading the war effort the best.
And if you can find the time to listen to this podcast, I believe you will find it well worth your time. You can find it on Spotify here - and Apple Podcast here. Dan Senor, once again, interviews Haviv Rettig Gur about the “Three Stage Deal”.