October 257, 2023, "The War"

My 202nd post on The War

Today’s Image

This photo was taken today of children taking shelter in a Moshav Alma, located about 5 km from the Lebanese border. The northern part of our country is on fire. Most people had to evacuate the north. Those that remain are spending half their days in bomb shelters due to the non stop Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks. Nothing is being done because Prime Minister Netanyahu made some promise to President Biden that Israel would not launch a full out war. But how are people supposed to live like this???

Gaza Rockets

No rockets were fired from Gaza and crossed the Israeli border in the past 5 days.

Casualties

No IDF casualties were reported in the past 48 hours resulting from operations in either Gaza or Lebanon.

Gaza Operations

There were some repots emerging this morning from UN agencies that the IDF was firing on positions in the designated al-Mawasi humanitarian zone west of Rafah. The IDF has categorically denied that it struck anywhere near the humanitarian zone.

IDF infantry raids were conducted in the Zeitoun and Sabra neighborhoods of Gaza City for the past 3 days. Troops found and destroyed an 800 meter long tunnel that was about 30 meters deep (95 feet). The tunnel has several room and blast doors. It was under active use by Hamas combatants. More than 50 Hamas combatants were killed in the operation. You can see a video of the tunnel destruction here.

In addition, operations are continuing in Rafah and along the central Netzarim corridor. Troops with the support of missiles from nearby IDF Naval vessels is moving in from the western area of Rafah in a pincer move that is squeezing the remaining Hamas combatants remaining in the city. Reports are coming in of intense close-quarters combat with the elimination of many Hamas combatants.

IDF troops exhumed several graves in Rafah to bring back the corpses for DNA analysis. This has been done before in an effort to trace hostages who may have been killed in captivity. After analysis, the bodies are returned to the original site with gravestones intact. This has been done twice before. At least 6 dead hostages have been identified this way so far.

Lebanon Operations

This evening, Hezbollah fired two anti-tank guided missiles that struck a building in the very north of Israel. Two IDF soldiers were lightly wounded and taken to a hospital for treatment.

Hezbollah, altogether today, launched more than 150 rockets across the border along with more than 30 kamikaze drones. This follows yesterday’s attack of more than 250 rockets. They said that they were targeted IDF bases in the north along with civilian towns. Two men in their 20s were slightly hurt from falling shrapnel. One home in the Israeli city of Katzrin was hit. You can see a video and more details here. Altogether IDF defensive system neutralized all those that risked hitting populated area, with the rests falling in open fields. But the problem is that those landing in open fields are causing a fresh round of fires across our entire northern region. We are having an unusually hot and dry period at the moment which is exacerbating the efforts to put out these fires.

Earlier in the day Hezbollah launched 3 kamikaze drones that were neutralized in the air. This is a two edged sword. Those of you following these posts might recall my expressions of concern that the Iron Dome seemed to be missing many of the drones as Hezbollah was maneuvering them “below the radar”. I am hoping that today’s successful anti drone missile launches are signs that the IDF has figured out how to counter these maneuvers. According to their reports none of the drones hit their targets. But, even if the IDF knocks these drones and rockets out in mid air, the shrapnel falling is also causing these rampant fires to ignite. And there is probably very little that can be done. OUR NORTH IS LITERALLY ON FIRE.

The Israeli Government recognizes this as a serious escalation, the IDF has been putting its forces through drills as if it is about to launch a full scale attack on Lebanon, yet nothing gets decided. Meanwhile, 80,000 people evacuated their homes, have no base for making a living and see no signs that they might be able to return to their homes anytime soon.

Last night IDF fighter jets carried out strikes on Hezbollah positions in southern including locations from which rockets had been fired as well as other military facilities.

Yemen Operations

The Houthis have managed to successfully strike another merchant ship in the Gulf of Aden. The ship was en route from Malaysia to Venice, Italy with cargo. The strike ignited a fire onboard and the vessel issued a distress signal. I hope to have more information to update by tomorrow.

The Houthis claim that they collaborated with another Iranian Proxy in Iraq, targeting sites in Israel’s Ashdod and Haifa ports with missiles. There are no reports from the IDF saying that they have seen missiles or drones targeting these sites.

Aid

After extensive repairs to the floating pier off Gaza, windy conditions caused rough waters (not unusual) that caused the pier once again to go out of operation.

Hostages/Ceasefire

According to a report in Reuters, Hamas officials are claiming that the changes they demanded are “not significant”. Well if that is really the case, why don’t they simple say “YES” as Secretary of State Antony Blinken has told them??

Politics/Protests

Statements coming from former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett calling for the need to have a government putting the interests of the people first is needed and can be done. Many are reading into this the possibility that he may re-enter politics. He remains a popular figure in many polls that have been conducted.

International

Today, one of my favorite leaders in the world (not!) President for Life of Turkiye Tayyip Erdogan issued a statement demanding that the UN Security Council meet to demand that Israel abide my an immediate ceasefire. He is visiting Spain and thanking them for their strong anti-Israel positions. This is the ultimate in “chutzpah”. The UN Security Council just met, passed a CeaseFire resolution sponsored by the USA that was agreed to by Israel, that was then rejected by Hamas who actually layered on additional demands that it had never placed in the negotiations previously. So, no matter what Israel does everything is “our fault”.

Contrary to the direction of politics in the European Continent suggesting a shift to the “right” polls in the UK are suggesting that the Labour Party is set to win. One major component of their platform is the recognition of a Palestinian State.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• Here is an analysis of Hezbollah’s intentions and fears as outlined by Prof. Emeritus Amatzia Baram from Haifa University specializing in Iraq Studies and former Wilson Fellow.

• And here is an analysis of the impact of the Iron Dome anti-rocket system developed here in Israel by Former Ambassador to the USA, Michael Oren on his substack site. I like this quote the most.. “Interviewing on CNN during the operation, I was asked—twice, without irony—why doesn’t Israel provide Iron Dome to Gaza?”

• Here is very comprehensive assessment of the situation of Israel, its allies and its enemies from the staff at the Begin Sadat Strategic Center, a military/political think tank here in Israel. It is about 3 weeks old and much has changed since it was written, but is thoroughness is unmatched.