October 279, 2023, "The War"
My 218th post on The War
Today’s Image
That’s right, we are taking a short vacation. Not on that beach, but a short trip elsewhere. So that means I will not be posting these Substack updates until after July 18, when we get back. I apologize in advance, but as you might imagine we are in real need of a break. So please hang in there and I promise to resume on my return.
Thank you!!!
Gaza Rockets
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel in the past 24 hours. Yesterday, I incorrectly stated that no rockets were fired. But one small barrage was fired at Nahal Oz near Gaza. Within two minutes of the rocket launch both the Hamas operative and rocket launcher were destroyed by a drone fired missile.
Casualties
During operations in Shejaiya, Staff Sgt. Eyal Merman - 20 (Z’’L) was killed during combat. And during the huge barrage of rocket and drones yesterday from Hezbollah in the north, Major (Res.) Itay Galea - 38 (Z’’L) was killed.
Gaza Operations
The IDF operation in the Shejaiya neighborhood of Gaza City continues. Today the IDF announced that after one week of operations more than 100 terrorist combatants have been killed and more than 100 Hamas facilities (tunnel shafts, armories, rocket launchers, etc.) have been destroyed. My guess is that this means we are about a week from winding up this operation. But all of us fully expect that this will NOT be the last time IDF troops enter Shejaiya.
Inside Rafah, the IDF has encountered a new phenomenon that is causing the uptick in casualties. It turns out that because the Israeli Government waited so long to enter Rafah, because the Biden Administration applied such high pressure, Hamas had a lot of time to wire and booby trap nearly all the residential buildings inside Rafah. When IDF troops enter one building after checking for explosives, a bomb in a nearby building is triggered that causes ceilings and walls to fall on other IDF troops. Hamas has planted cameras in many of these homes so they can remotely trigger the explosives. Now, the IDF is learning tactics on how to deal with this so progress should accelerate.
Lebanon Operations
Last night IDF fighter jets conducted attacks against Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon. These attacks happen at night because they are designed to take out as many Hezbollah operatives as possible. It is presumed that they take refuge in their facilities at night and that is when the IDF strikes.
IDF General
For those of you who can read Hebrew, I highly recommend you read this article published today in Yediot Ahranot, written by Ron Ben Yishai. For those of you who don’t read Hebrew, I will try to summarize. Yishai is summarizing the IDF achievements in Gaza to date, all within the context of the hostage/ceasefire proposal currently under negotiation. In the north of Gaza, the IDF has entered into its Phase 3 in which it dispatches a brigade into an area in Gaza as intelligence indicates that Hamas is trying to reconstitute itself in some fashion. In some cases, the IDF enables Hamas intentionally to do so in order to attack them as a group. To the US Army trying to provide us well intended, but mis targeted, advice it would appear that the IDF strategy is failing as Hamas regroups. But this is done out of design by the IDF. And like all of us here expect, the IDF will continue to go into Nuseirat, Shejaiya, Jabaliya, Khan Younis, etc. over and over and over again. Each time it will require fewer IDF troops to deal with a continued weakened Hamas. Hamas may try to train new young recruits, they have lost so many commanders that there is a lack of people to train the new recruits. It is estimated that there are still many rocket launchers in Gaza and this tactic is also designed to continue to enable the IDF to find them. Yishai then talks about these so-called bubbles of civilian administration that are to be established, starting in the northern part of Gaza. Basically this idea is to enable local residents in areas where Hamas has been eradicated to start taking responsibility for aid distribution locally as well as self policing. It is really not known at this time whether this strategy will work or not. But it appears that it will undergo some limited trials. But, deploying a real strategy for building a “day after” is thwarted because Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot bring up the issue at his Cabinet because the extreme right wing ministers will throw a fit and quit the Government. In the center of Gaza the IDF is in Phase 2 where there are more actively taking on groups of Hamas fighters. But eventually this area will also move to Phase 3. In the south, along the Egyptian border it is more complicated. So far the IDF has found 25 tunnels but has not yet started working on destroying them. Because to do so will require some level of involvement of Egypt. Since Egypt makes a lot of money from these tunnels it will be reluctant to cooperate. Yishai believes that it was the capture of Rafah and the Egyptian border that is bringing Sinwar to the negotiating table as this is the largest threat to Hamas’ rule. Once Israel can stop the smuggling of weapons, it is a matter of time until Hamas runs out of the ability to intimidate the population. Eventually, operating in Gaza will resemble more and more like the way the IDF operates in Judea/Samaria (West Bank).
Hostages/Ceasefire
While it might appear that the pace is picking up on the hostage/ceasefire negotiations, Government officials have been cautioning the Israeli public to remain a bit skeptical. Despite last night’s Security Cabinet meeting designated to focus on the discussions related to the current state of negotiations, the main delegation of Israeli negotiators were not dispatched to either Cairo, Egypt nor Doha, Qatar. Instead the Director of Mossad, David Barnea, was sent to Doha to meet 1:1 with Qatar’s Prime Minister Mohammed Abdulrahman al-Thani to discuss the details. It is not being disclosed why things are being done this way. What appears to be triggering this new level of activity is the apparent slight change in Sinwar’s position regarding a permanent ceasefire. In their most recent response, Hamas is now saying that the negotiations over a permanent ceasefire will commence with phase 2. During phase 1, there will be a temporary ceasefire, Israeli troops will withdraw to specified positions and away from population centers, about 40 women, children and informed hostages will be released (over 42 day period) and Israel will release a large number (not publicly released yet) of imprisoned terrorists, many of whom have been charged, tried and convicted of the murder of many Israeli civilians. What is likely to cause major issues during the negotiations over details is how many IDF troops will remain in Gaza during Phase 1 and 2, and where they will be positioned. My guess is that inside the Government they believe that this will enable the extraction of some 40 hostages, after which fighting can resume. What is not clear is what happens if war breaks out in the north with Hezbollah. My guess is that this will not be discussed or included in any element of the these negotiations.
It is also my assumption that Hamas modified its position as its situation has seriously deteriorated since the IDF operations in Shejaiya, Nuseirat, Jabaliya and others. The IDF is seeing this on the ground as well.
Meantime, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, in usual style, is threatening to leave the coalition if the hostage/ceasefire deal is reached along the lines of the current counter proposal are agreed to. This jerk threatens Prime Minister Netanyahu on quitting the coalition daily for one reason or another. He would do the country a big favor by following up on his threats and then crawling under a rock for a long period of time… at least that is my opinion.
Aid
Yesterday, 302 aid trucks entered Gaza and 164 trucks worth of aid were picked up at the staging areas inside Gaza and distributed by UN aid organizations.
International
It is being reported that the Chief Prosecutor at the International Criminal Court ICC, Karim Khan, had a fact finding trip scheduled months in advance to visit Israel to speak with Government officials and visit the sites of the October 7 attack. But, rather than visit Israel, on the same day he was supposed to arrive he, instead, issued requests for arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. I guess that an investigation and questioning the principals was unimportant. More details can be found here.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Well it appears that the UN, after coming under pressure from very compelling evidence, is about to investigate my favorite UN personality - Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in the Palestinian territories occupied since 1967 Francesca Albanese. UNWatch has uncovered, apparently, here accepting a bribe from some pro-Hamas group in order to travel to Australia and New Zealand for the purpose of lobbying a major pension fund to divest from Israel. Read more here. I am honestly torn. If she is fired I will miss her outrageous public lies. But I am sure she will pop up elsewhere as these kinds of people will migrate to the next source of corrupt funds in order to sell themselves.
And here is an article describing the testimony of one of the female hostages released in the December ceasefire, Ditza Heiman. In it she describes how one of her captors is an UNRWA teacher who guarded her during her 53 days of captivity. She and others are suing UNRWA in US courts. And I remind you of my four elements of corruption of Western Institution:
#4 The Corruption of United Nations Agencies and other International NGOs
Enjoy your well earned vacation.