Today’s Image
That’s right we are back. And these photos should give you a hint as to where we were. In case you can’t guess, I provide a few more details later in the post…
Gaza Rockets
Sirens warning civilians of imminent rocket attacks have been going off sporadically in the areas surrounding Gaza, but so far nearly all are false alarms. Sometimes Israeli drones or missiles fired at Hamas positions in Gaza can trigger the alarms. No rockets fired from Gaza landed in Israel in the past 5 days.
Casualties
The IDF casualty count from operations in Gaza now stands at 326. Including those killed in fighting in the few days following October 7 it is 683.
Gaza Operations
The big news while we were on vacation was the IDF assassination attempt on Mohammed Deif. Deif had been at the top of the IDF’s “Most Wanted List” for years. He managed to survive multiple previous assassination attempts. For the past 25 years he has not slept in the same place two nights in a row. He is a legend amongst the Palestinian population for his successes in conducting numerous terror attacks against Israel as well as being the military leader of Hamas. Prior to the attack, the IDF had been tracking Rafa’a Salameh, the commander of the Khan Younis Hamas Brigade, and many opportunities to kill him previously. However, the IDF wanted Deif and believed that at some point he would emerge from the tunnels to meet with his second in command. Due to the ongoing IDF operations in Gaza there are fewer and fewer places of refuge underground for Deif. Also, for health reasons he could not remain inside the tunnels for a sustained period of time. The IDF used large munitions in the attack. It was restricted to the “villa compound” that was owned by Salameh and not to the general humanitarian zone as reported by Hamas in the International Media. You can see more details from this “dated” report. Hamas reported that there were 90 Palestinian casualties resulting from the attack. The IDF believes that nearly all were either Hamas operatives meeting with Deif and Salameh or members of Salameh’s immediate family. It is difficult to recover bodies from an attack of this scope. Since the attack, using DNA samples collected from the site, the IDF has positively identified that Salameh was killed.
The IDF insists that all their intelligence confirms that Deif was in the building at the time of the attack. If so, it is hard to imagine how he could have possibly survived. However, he is a bit of a legend within the Palestinian society and it is to Hamas’ advantage to keep that legend “alive”. So, as expected they are denying that Deif was killed. But at some point they will need to show an image of Deif “in command” to convince their followers. It also puts Sinwar in a difficult position. Nearly all the high level commanders reporting to Deif have been killed by the IDF so the ranks are getting very thin. It is believed that his only real alternative is to turn to Sinwar’s brother Mohammed Sinwar. But, this presents a multitude of problems for Sinwar. Communications within Hamas are no longer taking place over wireless communications as they know that the IDF can listen in. Many of the land lines deployed inside the tunnels have been destroyed, but not all. So in order to communicate with the Hamas forces, a military commander has to emerge to meet physically with the leaders that remain. If Mohammed Sinwar is appointed as the successor to Deif, it will have to be communicated to the Hamas rank and file. Once that happens the IDF has another channel of confirmation of Deif’s death. Moreover, they have a way to trace the location of Sinwar, in case they already don’t have it. If Sinwar does not appoint a successor to Deif, while pretending he is still alive, then it will be confusing to the Hamas command structure. Two days ago the IDF released a recording they captured between two Gazans talking about Deif. You can read more here. The recordings do not prove that Deif was killed, but do suggest that Gazans are getting fed up with Sinwar and his policies. Yesterday, the IDF reported that they are receiving increasing signs that Deif was killed in the attack, but are nondescript about details.
IDF operations in Rafah and Gaza City neighborhoods are ongoing. During the past two weeks IDF infantry has been operating in Gaza City locating Hamas and destroying arms storage facilities. It is estimated that more than 150 Hamas combatants were killed during these operations.
Today, the IDF issued instructions to Palestinian civilians in the vicinity of a multi-storied facility in Deif al-Balah to evacuate. After the evacuation, the Israeli Air Force struck the building which was used to collect and funnel funds to Hamas.
In Rafah, IDF infantry operations continue but appear to be mostly clean up operations in those neighborhoods most recently entered by the IDF. For the most part, efforts are underway to detect and map out the tunnel infrastructure so it can be destroyed at a later time. This is a key operation as Israel needs to cut off the underground smuggling operations between Egypt and Gaza.
Lebanon Operations
Yesterday, Friday July 19, both Lebanese and Saudi newspapers reported on an IDF aerial strike on a three story home in southern Lebanon’s Safad El Battikh, about 8 km from the Israeli border. According to these reports Ali Jaafar Maatuk was killed along with four others. Maatuk is a senior commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force. That force saw a lot of action during the Syrian Civil War and is regarded as a very capable fighting force. Maatuk was promoted earlier after his superior, Ali Ahmad Hussein, was killed by the IDF in an April attack. And at the same time, but in a different operation, the IDF announced the killing of Hassan Ali Mahana. Mahana was a part of Hezbollah’s command structure and part of their combat engineering unit, responsible for planning and executing several Hezbollah operations. These two must have been important as Hezbollah was very active today, Saturday, with the launch of both rockets and kamikaze drones. You can read more here.
This morning IDF fighter jets struck several buildings used by Hezbollah in storing and launching rockets/missiles in souther Lebanon. Then, early this afternoon more than 15 rockets were launched at the Israeli community of Dafna, about 5 km southeast of the border with Lebanon, north of the Sea of Galilee. All either landed in open fields or were neutralized by Israeli defense systems. By mid afternoon Lebanese media reported a strike against an isolated automobile about 4 km north of the Israeli border. Early reports stated that the car was not destroyed and the occupants, Syrian nationals, were injured. And then a barrage of 30 rockets were launched in the direction of the Golan Heights along with several kamikaze drones. The rockets were either intercepted or landed in open fields. But the IDF reports that two soldiers were injured by shrapnel resulting from the explosions of the kamikaze drones. Explosions from the rockets resulted in fires on the Golan Heights. IDF artillery immediately returned fire to the locations from where the rockets were fired severely damaging the launch facilities.
Yemen Operations
The big news of the day is the successful drone strike by the Houthis against target in Tel Aviv very early on Friday morning. Actually the loud explosion at 04:02 AM woke me up as I was sleeping in my apartment in Tel Aviv when it struck. We had just returned from our vacation that afternoon. I had assumed it was a missile fired by Hezbollah from Lebanon. But, it turned out that it was a drone fired and directed by the Houthis from Yemen. It was one of four drones. The other three were eliminated by US CENTCOM forces earlier in flight. This drone was detected by the IDF and tracked for 8 minutes before it exploded. The IDF attributes the resulting attack and destruction due to human error in escalating the knowledge of the attack up the proper channels. The drone exploded in the air but heavy shrapnel hit an apartment building in Tel Aviv killing one man and slightly injuring 10 others. It was a major wake up call, literally and symbolically.
Yesterday the Security Cabinet met to discuss the attack and decide on a response. It is very unusual for the Security Cabinet to meet on a Friday evening or Saturday as it is the Jewish Sabbath, Shabbat. But they did. And as a consequence, the Israeli Air Force delivered its response to the Houthis directly. It required Israeli fighter jets to be refueled mid-flight. It is not clear whether the IAF passed through Saudi air space or not. It was not necessary so I presume that they did not. You can hear a report from Tel Aviv on this Fox News report as well as see photos of the resulting attack on the Yemeni Port of Hodeidah. This port is the main facility by which the Houthis receive their arms shipped from Iran. It is also the primary location from where they dispatch their marine drones that target merchant vessels traversing the Arabian Gulf and the Red Sea. Despite earlier reports in Saudi newspapers neither the USA nor any EU country were involved in the attack on Hodeidah. But Israel did communicate with the USA immediately after the attack, and most likely while in progress. The Houthis have now vowed retaliation. It is not clear what this means or what more they intend to do beyond what they are already doing - attacking merchant ships throughout the international shipping lanes and sending drones to attack Israel. Here you can see a video of the results from the attack as well as more details.
Egypt/Syria/Iraq/Jordan Operations
Iranian sponsored terrorists in Iraq claim that they struck a target in the Haifa port in the past 24 hours but no one here in Israel has any idea of what they are talking about.
IDF General
Through several reports in the Israeli media the IDF is reporting that they are seeing increasing signs that the Hamas combatants in Gaza that remain to fight are losing the will to fight and are putting pressure on their commanders to influence Sinwar to reach a ceasefire deal quickly. As best I can tell, the evidence is all anecdotal so it is hard to really know.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Israeli negotiators are in Cairo working on nailing down details of the current proposal forming the basis of discussions and outlined by President Biden in early May. Because there is no trust between the parties - Israel and Hamas - the negotiators are trying to nail each detail. In the meantime, many members of the Knesset (parliament) are vocally expressing their positions and “red lines” regarding any hostage deal. Most of these red lines appear consistent with the general mood here in Israel - retain control of Rafah/Egypt border, Netzarim corridor and perimeter around Gaza. Other demands, such as immediate release of all hostages seems impractical.
Aid
The US Army decided to dismantle its floating pier and bring it back to the USA. It never really worked effectively.
COGAT, the Israeli government authority responsible for overseeing Palestinian civilian aid operations in Gaza and Judea/Samaria, has changed the format on its web site providing a great deal of detail. You are welcome to see the wealth of data for yourself here. Its most recent update bearing the data for Thursday, July 18, reports that 245 trucks unloaded their aid inside staging facilities inside Gaza that day. Most of the aid is coming in via the Karem Shalom border crossing bridging Egypt-Israel-Gaza. Hamas continues to try and disrupt the aid delivery inside Gaza, but its frequency and intensity seems to be in decline allowing more aid to be delivered locally. This data can be found on the same web site.
Politics/Protests
Protests continue on behalf of the hostages in both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. Attendance seems to range in the thousands. The chants intended to put pressure on the government to reach a deal have merged with generic anti-government slogans so it would appear that the efforts have merged into one.
International
Well the ICJ, without requesting any materials, testimony or opportunity for Israel to defend itself, issued an opinion that Israel is in occupation of “Palestinian Territories” that include the West Bank and Jerusalem. The reaction here in Israel is muted. Some on the extreme right are demanding that Israel, in response, immediately legally annex Judea/Samaria (West Bank). Those on the far left are accusing the current government of bringing this down on the country due to its “rotten” policies. Mostly, people are angry but not shocked.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
The Wall Street Journal interviewed the Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz and posted it here along with their overall observations of the current situation. If you can get by the paywall it is a very worthwhile read. I am not a fan of Katz but the article is an excellent summary of the current situation. Here are a few quotes I extract:
“Something changed in Gaza. After months of rejecting Israeli cease-fire proposals and holding out for more concessions, Hamas has begun to offer concessions of its own.” “It shouldn’t be a surprise that pressure on Hamas could yield gains in negotiations. Yet for months Western powers took the opposite approach, pressuring Israel to end the war and leave Hamas victorious. They called for an “immediate cease-fire,” increasingly delinked from a hostage deal. Humanitarian groups upbraided Israel and kept quiet about Hamas. The International Court of Justice and the International Criminal Court menaced Israel with bogus prosecutions and tribunals.” “The Rafah operation was delayed by months, during which Hamas seemed to be under less pressure than ever. The White House withheld weapons from Israel. Warnings of a humanitarian disaster poured in from all quarters. On May 6, Israel invaded Rafah anyway.” ““And we were right,” says Mr. Katz. “Everyone knows it now, even the U.S., because everyone warned that it would be a catastrophe. It’s a war, yes. It’s not a picnic. But they said that it would take four months to evacuate the population. It took only days.” More than a million Gazans quickly evacuated Rafah to designated safe zones.”
Here is an interview with four members of the elite Egoz Special Forces (Egoz means “nut” in Hebrew). They do a pretty good job of describing the day to day operations they conduct in Gaza. The video is about 5 minutes long.
We travelled to Austria, visiting Salzburg, the Austrian Tyrol area, Bavarian castle region and Vienna… A very nice break.