Today’s Image
The photo was taken of the burning fuel and ammunition storage facilities at the Yemeni port of Al-Hodeidah, used by the Houthis to import weapons from Iran, export oil and launch attacks on merchant vessels. The target was carefully chosen by the IDF weeks ago when planning for the operation started. The main goal was to disrupt inbound arms supplies to the Houthis and disrupt their arms/fuel supply. But the IDF knew that the result of the Saturday attack would result in major fires. The image you see is intended to send a message to Iran and all its proxies. All are within range of this kind of operation. The IDF is hoping that this image is so intense that it will serve as a major warning to those launching attacks against Israel - Iran, Iranian proxies in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen. More information about the Houthi attack on Tel Aviv and this operation has been released to the public and I write about some of it below.
Gaza Rockets
No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israel in the last 7 days.
Casualties
The IDF reported one casualty yesterday, Sgt. Ephraim Ben Amram - 25 (Z’’L). He was seriously injured by a kamikaze drone launched by Hezbollah on June 30. Yesterday, he succumbed to his wounds.
Gaza Operations
There were only minor reports of fighting in the Shati neighborhood of Gaza City and the ongoing fighting in Rafah. Nothing unusual.
Lebanon Operations
The IDF is still trying to find an effective defense against the large number of kamikaze drones launched by Hezbollah on a daily basis. Too many are getting through our defensive systems. Until this week, the IDF has been using a US built Vulcan VADS shoulder launched short range anti-rocket system. But is has proved not to be so effective against the low flying drones. You can see a video of US Marines operating a Vulcan system in this video. The IDF has not made public which new system it intends to deploy. So far, the most effective defensive systems have been either Iron Dome or missiles launched from fighter jets. But they have not been 100% effective either.
And just today, Hezbollah launched several kamikaze drones that struck towns near the Lebanese border. One of them ignited a fire that is still being dealt with. There were no injuries or serious damage reported.
Earlier this afternoon an IDF drone launched attacks on two major Hezbollah arms storage facilities in southern Lebanon.
Yemen Operations
More details have emerged about the drone attack from the Houthis that killed an Israeli civilian in Tel Aviv very early on Friday. This article is an excellent source for more details. The drone was one of several launched by the Houthis. It was in the air for some 16 hours. From Yemen it crossed the Red Sea near Eritrea and started heading north over Sudan, then Egypt and then reversing course to the southeast about 20 km off the Tel Aviv coast. It was detected by Israeli radar systems offshore with ample time, six minutes, for IDF defense systems to kick in. Ultimately it traveled more than 2,600 km. I, for one, find it hard to believe that it could carry adequate fuel to fly such a distance without refueling. It was in the air for some 16 hours altogether. The kamikaze drone was built by Iran and modified by the Houthis.
The reason that the drone was not eliminated before entering over Israeli land resulted from human error. At the time that the drone started its approach and was within radar range, the IDF team monitoring the overall radar systems was focused on a drone launched by one of the Iranian proxies from Iraq. That and the fact that the drone approached from the West took the team by surprise. In a way, we are lucky that the damage was not more severe. If there had been more than one drone the threat would have been more apparent. Clearly, the IDF internal review will alter their procedures for handling these situations.
As I said at the start of this post, the operation by the IAF resulting in the attack on the Houthi port of Al Hodaidah had been planned well in advance and the target studied over a long time. The port’s primary use is for military purposes benefitting the Houthis. There are other, untouched, ports in Yemen that can receive International Aid. The Security Cabinet met on Saturday, early afternoon, and issued the order to the IDF to proceed with the operation. It appears that 6 people were killed in the operation and about 50 injured. There has been considerable damage that will take some time for the Houthis to recover. As expected the Houthis immediately launched a retaliatory effort in the form of a single ballistic missile fired at Israel’s southernmost city of Eilat. Israel’s home built Arrow-3 surface to air anti-ballistic missile system took out the Houthi missile. The IDF is expecting more attempts by the Houthis to penetrate Israeli air space.
One of the goals of the Israeli response was to make clear to Iran and its proxies what could happen to them. Towards that end the operation received wide coverage throughout the Arabic Press worldwide. Here you can see in Al-Jazeera (Qatari government controlled press - English) and Al-Arabiya (main Saudi paper in English). And here you can see it making headlines in Al-Jazeera (Arabic). And here in Al-Arabiya (Arabic). And An-Nahar (Lebanon). This is just a sampling. Every Arabic online news service I checked out was showing images like these. So I guess that the Israeli Government accomplished its main goal of the operation…
IDF General
Today, the IDF made its first draft call for 1,000 eligible members of the ultra-orthodox community to report for the army. The Defense Minister Gallant announced that they would be calling up another 2,000 with this draft cycle. So far, key rabbis from three of the largest Ashkenazi Ultra-Orthodox Sects - Belz, Gur and Vishniev - told their students to cooperate with the IDF and report for duty. The Chief Sephardi Rabbi told all their students to resist reporting for the draft. I do not know about the other Ashkenazi sects and their positions. So far, it is going much smoother than I would have predicted.
Hostages/Ceasefire
The Security Cabinet held “in-depth” discussions with clearly set boundaries for the Israeli negotiators as the negotiations proceed. Based on this, the cabinet dispatched the Israeli team to Doha, Qatar with its new set of instructions in the hopes that a deal can be reached. The IDF security establishment is arguing that “now is the time” to strike a deal. Hamas has mollified a few of its longstanding positions and the worry is that the hostages can only last so much longer in captivity.
I would say that the overall sentiment in Israel is in favor of a deal at this time. But, as always the “devil is in the details”. I would say that there are a few positions that most citizens could not accept in a “deal”. I would include in this list the following:
no permanent ceasefire. It can be long, but not permanent.
the IDF must maintain its control over the Philadelphi and xxx corridors
There is an effort being pushed by the government that any Palestinian terrorist prisoners released that have been convicted of killing Israeli civilians would be released to a third country such as Qatar or Turkey. But, I do not think that the government views this as a deal killer.
Aid
The Israeli Ministry of Health reported that a type of polio virus was detected in the waster infrastructure inside Gaza. Vaccines are going to first be administered to the IDF soldiers fighting in Gaza. And then the Health Ministry announced that they will provide vaccines and solicit aid organizations to assist in administering the vaccines to the Gaza residents. It turns out that near the start of the war, polio vaccines were administered to more than one million residents of Gaza already.
Politics/Protests
Protesters gathered at Israel’s main airport, Ben Gurion Airport, to demonstrate against Prime Minister Netanyahu as he departs Israel for his visit to Washington, DC. The protesters had this naive (or maybe not so naive) position demanding that he not leave until he had a hostage/ceasefire deal. Given the inability to communicate with the main Hamas decision maker, Yahya Sinwar, who is holed up deep underground in some tunnel under Khan Younis it is not possible to reach a deal very quickly. He communicates only using a messenger with hand written orders. As you can easily guess, each exchange of terms can take a week… easily. Everyone expects major protests on his arrival in the USA as well.
International
Given the sudden announcement from the Whitehouse regarding President Biden dropping out of the re-election race, it is no longer clear whether he will meet with Prime Minister Netanyahu or not.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is a worthwhile take on the situation with the Houthis. I do not know the author but it was recommended by a friend. It is a short twitter post.