October 302, 2023, "The War"
My 226th post on The War
Today’s Image
Ten of the children killed in yesterday rocket attack by Hezbollah were buried today. Two more have died. Three remain in critical condition in a nearby hospital and two are classified as serious. Surgeons are dealing with shrapnel lodged in the brain and other vital organs. More details follow.
Gaza Rockets
One rocket was fired today from one of the humanitarian zones in Gaza and landed in an open field in Israel.
Casualties
No IDF casualties were reported in the past 2 days. Yesterday I reported on the death of Sgt. Yahonatan Greenblatt - 21 (Z’’L). Here is the list of dead from yesterday’s Hezbollah rocket attack. Israelis from all over the country tens of thousands flocked to Majdal Shams to show respect for the dead:
Alma Ayman Fakher Eldin - 11 (Z’’L),
Milad Muadad Alsha’ar - 10 (Z’’L),
Vinees Adham Alsafadi - 11 (Z’’L),
Iseel Nasha’at Ayoub - 12 (Z’’L),
Yazan Nayeif Abu Saleh - 12 (Z’’L),
Johnny Wadeea Ibrahim -13 (Z’’L),
Ameer Rabeea Abu Saleh - 16 (Z’’L),
Naji Taher Alhalabi - 11 (Z’’L),
Fajer Laith Abu Saleh - 16 (Z’’L),
Hazem Akram Abu Saleh - 15 (Z’’L) and
Nathem Fakher Saeb - 16 (Z’’L)
Gaza Operations
Fighting in Khan Younis is intensifying. today an IDF officer and soldier were seriously injured and flown for treatment to nearby hospitals.
And while the IDF forces have expanded their operation Khan Younis, there are reports that operations have restarted in Nuseirat in central Gaza. The IDF has distributed evacuation notices to the civilians still there before it starts.
Lebanon Operations
I apologize up front if this section gets a bit long, but I think it is important to explain some things about the Druze so you have a good understanding of the events that are likely to unfold over the next weeks. The Druze are a unique religion whose practices are kept largely in secret. Altogether there are about 1 million member worldwide with about 600,000 in Syria (mostly concentrated in southern Syria), 250,000 in Lebanon and 145,000 in Israel. They are a monotheistic faith that originated as a branch of Shia Islam with heavy influence from Christianity, Zoroastrianism, Buddhism and, of course, Islam. It split off to become a unique faith in its own right around 1020 AD. In the Druze faith there is an element of an “eternal soul” and reincarnation. It is not possible to convert to become Druze and intermarriage almost never happens. However, I do have a friend who married a Druze who had converted to Judaism, prior to the couple meeting. But this is rare.
The Druze, largely because they are always a minority in the countries in which they live, remain fairly loyal to the countries in which they reside. In the case of Syria this has proven in recent years difficult. One of the early regions to revolt against the Syrian autocracy of Bashir Assad were the Druze. However, there were quite a few Druze who served in the Syrian Army. Nonetheless, it was Hezbollah and the Syrian Army that went into the area called Jabal al-Druze (mountain of the Druze) in southern Syria in order to disarm the Druze. Then during the peak of the ISIS incursion the Syrian Army and Hezbollah enabled ISIS to enter the Druze area where they killed several hundred people. This episode is still vivid in their memories.
In Israel relations between the country, the Jewish majority and the Druze is generally very good. There are serious complaints from the Druze, primarily regarding what they view as restrictions on their ability to build and expand their villages in the Galilee. They insist that the local municipalities discriminate against them, restricting their ability to expand in comparison to their Jewish counterparts in the area. I am not an expert in this area, but I suspect that there is some legitimacy to their complaints. However, much of this is also cultural. In the patriarchal Arab community, including the Druze, it is common for a father’s sons to live in the same building with their families. So it is common to expand homes to add 2-3 floors, but not more. Culturally, they do not wish to live in multistory apartment buildings. However, there is a shortage of land in the country and most of the Jewish towns consist of many multistory buildings. In Tel Aviv they reach 40-50 stories. In Jerusalem, they are as high as 25-35 stories. In other cities they range but can be 10-20 stories. So if they refuse to construct residential buildings providing this density of living conditions it is hard to accommodate their expanding villages. Without being an authority in this field, it is my belief that the issue is likely a combination of these problems - getting permits is a long process, there may be some level of discrimination and the residents don’t want to live in multi-story buildings.
The Druze serve in the IDF and often take positions in the Police Force and Border Patrol after being discharge. There are also many distinguished Druze officers serving in the IDF.
While the Druze Communities are tight, including relations between those in Syria, Lebanon and Israel, the Druze living on the Golan are unique. Prior to 1967 they were citizens of Syria and were proud of the fact. After Israel annexed the Golan Heights in 1981, the Golan Druze refused to accept Israeli citizenship. To prevent unnecessary conflicts, Israel did not interfere. It offered Israeli Citizenship to those taking the initiative to apply but did not force it on the population of about 20,000 spread across about 6 villages, of which Majdal Shamas is the largest. During this period, special provisions were made to enable the farmers in the area to sell their produce across the border into Syria. There is a beautiful movie named “The Syrian Bride” Directed by Eran Riklis, an Israeli film maker, that you should see. It was filmed on location in Majdal Shams in 2004. It won several international awards. You can learn more about it here. The basic story is that a young woman is engaged to a television comedian who works and lives in Damascus. And the movie follows all the ironies of trying to orchestrate a marriage between two people in love that straddle a contentious border between two countries affectively at war. It was filmed long before the outbreak of the Syrian Civil War. Residents of these Druze villages on the Golan have many relatives living in Southern Syria. In fact, during the Syrian Civil War, the community asked Israel to make some threats with the IDF against the Syrian Army in an effort to protect their relatives living in Syria’s Jabal al-Druze. To this day most of the Druze residents on the Golan maintain their Syrian citizenship, but more and more are applying for Israeli Citizenship.
With this background, it is now possible to explain some of the unique aspects of the Hezbollah rocket attack that killed so many children yesterday….
The children were playing European Football on a pitch that I believe was padded astroturf on top of a concrete base. They were taking a break from their game when the sirens started to blare. The sirens went off about 15-20 seconds before the rocket hit. In the areas around Gaza the residents get about 15 seconds between the initiation of the siren and when a rocket can land. So this time frame is not so unusual for a rocket fired from a location nearby. But the residents of the areas around Gaza are used to the sirens and know what to do. Young children in Majdal Shams did not know what to do. According to the IDF Hezbollah launched the rocket from a site only 2 km from Majdal Shams. So there was not much time to react. And there were not many adults around to quickly yell at the kids to move. The rocket that struck was an Iranian made Falaq 1 that was developed in the 1990s in Iran. It was used a lot during the Syrian Civil War, being used by both Hezbollah and the Syrian Army on a regular basis. Since January, Hezbollah launched more than 40 such rockets into other parts of Israel. SO ALL THIS TALK OF HEZBOLLAH SAYING IT WASN’T THEM IS AN OUTRIGHT LIE AND BS!!!! Iron Dome did not react in time because of the way in which the rocket was launched. It was launched from behind Mt. Hermon, which straddles the northernmost border between Israel and Lebanon along the Golan Heights. When the rocket is ascending behind a mountain, Iron Dome’s radar could not detect it. If Iron Dome units were place on top of Mt. Hermon it would have made a difference. But that would have been a squandering of resources. So Iron Dome could not “see” the rocket until half way of its flight and only when it was descending, by which time it was too late.
In this part of the world, allowing an adversary to attack you without any consequences is a recipe for escalation of hostilities. For this reason and the animosity between the Syrian and Israeli Druze Communities against Hezbollah and the Syrian Army, the Druze Community fully expects the IDF to take retribution on Hezbollah. This is particularly sensitive because it is critical that the government and the IDF show the same regard for citizens on the Golan Heights as they do for citizens in Tel Aviv. So if the IDF dispatches four fighter jets to bomb al-Hodeidah, Yemen after the Houthis killed one Jewish Israeli in Tel Aviv, the Druze citizens can expect no less of an effort by the IDF when 12 children ( and likely more) were killed by Hezbollah.
So, without doubt the IDF will be taking serious actions against Hezbollah commanders and their facilities in Lebanon over the next few days. It is my opinion that the IDF will attempt to communicate that it is not interested in initiating a full scale war with Hezbollah. And Hezbollah is certainly expecting operations against them in the coming days. This action has cost them dearly as how can they claim that they are “protecting” Lebanon from the Israelis when so many of their rockets are killing fellow Arabs, not just the Druze. Their rockets have hit many other Arab villages in Israel’s north over the past nine months. But, this attack resulted in an order of magnitude greater casualties, and on children. This is the reason they are trying their hardest to claim that it wasn’t them. But, only the biased European news outlets and the compatriots in “the axis of resistance” think that it wasn’t Hezbollah. US satellite data shows that it was Hezbollah and all the Gulf States know… and even the Lebanese know, but they won’t admit it because they are afraid of Hezbollah.
The Israeli cabinet is deliberating as I write this on what course of action to take. Prime Minister Netanyahu had just returned from the USA and went straight into a Security Cabinet Meeting that included all the commanders in IDF northern area. I believe that despite all the bellicose war talk of our extremist ministers in this government, reason will prevail and that significant, but measured IDF operations with clear strategic goals will be undertaken to further weaken Hezbollah’s abilities to attack in the future. We will have to wait and see….
Because of the lies being propagated by Hezbollah, members of the Lebanese Government and Iran saying that the rockets was not launched my Hezbollah, the IDF has gone to lengths to forensically document that the rocket was a Falaq 1 and that it was launched by Hezbollah from within Lebanese territory. You can see images and the proof here.
And this just came in as I was finishing this post…. During an interview with the Saudi news outlet, Al-Hadath, Lebanon’s Foreign Minister Abdallah Bouhabib says that Hezbollah is ready to withdraw beyond the Litani River, 29 km north of the Israeli border, if Israel refrains from further attacks. If this is real, it is meaningful and I hope that the Israeli Government pursues this with the help of the USA. This has been the demand of Israel since 2006, at the end of the Second Lebanese War. If this were to happen and it was enforceable then the rocket fire in the north would stop and Israel’s residents of the north could return to their homes in a few months. Regardless, Israel must launch some form of retaliation, but it can be measured. What was being negotiated previously is that the Hezbollah forces would be replaced by normal Lebanese Army forces… who do not launch rockets and anti-tank missiles across the border. I hope that something meaningful comes out of this and that it is not ignored…
And just after finding that piece of information I read this OP-ED from a military correspondent I highly respect who has some very wise words of advise for the government… In this article he argues that the Israeli Government should issue an ultimatum to Hezbollah. According to him, the Israeli Government should demand an immediate cease-fire and complete demilitarization of southern Lebanon all the way to the Litani River. If Hezbollah refuses, then the IDF can proceed with its plans. I think that this is a truly great idea and I hope that the government heeds his advice. You can read more from Ben-Dror Yemini here.
In the meantime, family members of the victims in this attack met yesterday with Defense Minister Gallant, Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and the commanders of the northern forces in separate meetings where they expressed their condolences. These meetings were not the first between these officials and members of the Druze village. However, other ministers in the government who had not even visited the northern parts of Israel previously were rebuffed by the residents who wanted nothing to do with them. They were told:
You abandoned us for nine months and now you are here? You have no shame. A boy went to play football and didn’t come home. Get him out of here! We don’t want him!
And it was just announced that the families of the victims do not wish to comply with a request from the Prime Minister’s Office to meet with him. They are angry with him for not taking a more forceful and aggressive attitude previously with Hezbollah.
Meanwhile, Norway has advised its citizens to leave Lebanon immediately. And University of Haifa administration has informed staff and students not to hold classes on floors higher than a 5th floor for fear of possible missile attacks.
And the government announced that it was dispatching experienced Arabic speaking social workers to the north to try and assist the grieving families in dealing with their losses.
Aid
For reasons that seem to be related to the Hezbollah rocket fire, the plan to send some 150 sick Gazan children abroad for treatment has been postponed by the government. They were supposed to go to the UAE. I do not see how the issues are related and the government should also these children and their families to leave.
Today more than 50 aid trucks entered Gaza. There is still a large accumulation of aid sitting inside the Gaza border at the staging areas waiting to be distributed.
Hostage/Ceasefire
The main delegation of Israeli negotiators has still not flown to meet with the Egyptian and Qatari intermediaries. But Mossad Chief David Barnea just returned from Rome where he met with delegations of both in order to update the Prime Minister on the current status of the negotiations. At least publicly at this stage, Israel has made 2-3 modifications to the proposal that it regards as being minor. And Hamas has announced the it is not willing to consider any changes, which results in a stalemate.
There is a weird story circulating here in the Israeli Press that Hamas sent a video to National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir (who leads the extreme right wing party, Otzma Yehudit) that shows footage of Israeli hostages being tortured. Among other responsibilities, Ben Gvir’s ministry manages the Israeli prison system which is holding many convicted Palestinian Terrorists. It is being claimed that the reason is to demand that these convicted Palestinian Terrorists should be treated better. All this is being denied by Ben Gvir so it is hard, at this point, to know what is really going on.
Today, one of the hostages released back in the November ceasefire spoke today during an interview on one of the major TV channels here about how doctors at Gaza hospitals who were supposed to be treating their injuries subjected them to torture. She described how when changing the bandages to see the wounds they suffered the doctors purposely poured chlorine, alcohol or vinegar on the wound, and then applied pressure. In another case one of the doctors took a scalpel and started cutting into exploded flesh in the wound.
Politics/Protests
Hamas Politburo leader Ismail Haniyeh, from his cozy residence in Qatar, announced a call for a national and international day of solidarity with Gaza. I do not know what this means exactly but I am sure that all those college students in the USA who are on summer holiday now have something to occupy themselves with…. in advance of the Democratic National convention.
International
And you just gotta love this guy, I know I do. “My good buddy” EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell has called for an independent investigation into the Majdal Shams attack. I guess that he is a closet member of Hezbollah??? I think that there should be an investigation into his sanity and IQ in order to determine if he should be held back another year or is ready to attend kindergarten.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Please take the time to watch this short video of former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett during an interview on CNN regarding the Hezbollah rocket attack on Majdal Shams.
And here is a great analysis coming again from The Wall Street Journal talking about how diplomatic efforts should be pushed to avoid major escalation of war between Israel and Hezbollah-Iran.
And here is a great analysis on how the Syrian Druze are getting tired of sitting on the fence. Very relevant and appropriate.
And here is a great contrast in reporting…. The BBC has become the absolute sewage of international objective reporting on the Middle East. Here is their article on the Hezbollah rocket strike on Majdal Shams. Headline reads “Israel hits Hezbollah targets after football pitch strike kills 12 young people”. So if you just read that headline, you might think that Israel killed the 12 young people. It provides no indication that Hezbollah launched the rocket. Great Britain is no longer Great if this is the best reporting they can come up with…. And I am not the only one who thinks that… Sacha Baron-Cohen and other British notables have gone on the attack with BBC coverage.
But, in contrast here is what the leading Saudi news outlet writes about the tragedy… 11 killed as rockets from Lebanon hit football pitch in Israeli-held Golan Heights. Saudi reporting is more objective than the BBC…
Well done. thank you for the thorough debrief.