October 307, 2023, "The War"
My 231rd post on The War
Today’s Image
I took the boat out sailing on Friday morning. Tried to locate the boat on Apple Maps. The image on the right is what was displayed on the phone, showing that I was near the Beirut Airport. Earlier, the day before I checked and Apple Maps showed me in Cairo. The IDF continues to scramble the GPS triangulation to thwart Hezbollah guided missiles and drones. While I am at it, here is a photo I took from the boat looking back at Tel Aviv. Notice all the cranes in the skyline. Construction still continues as well as the rise in housing prices. We are now seeing a surge in French Jews migrating to Israel. I suspect that the British Jewish Community is not too far behind…
Gaza Rockets
No rockets fired from Gaza landed in Israel the past six days.
Casualties
No IDF casualties have been reported in the past seven days.
Gaza Operations
IDF infantry conducted operations in the Sheik Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City this morning and identified a large contingent of Hamas combatants taking refuge inn UNRWA school there. The school was also used to manufacture and store a variety of weapons. After ensuring that civilians had left the facility, strikes were ordered in from drones which destroyed the building, its facilities and all the terrorists that remained inside.
On Friday, the IDF directed a missile attack on a Palestinian Islamic Jihad operations facility and killed Mohammed al-Jabari, the head of their weapons manufacturing operations. According to the IDF he was also responsible for the distribution of salaries and spending for the terrorist organization. In a subsequent operation, in coordination with infantry troops operating in the area, the IDF fired a missile destroying a Hamas weapons storage facility.
Fighting in Rafah continues with IDF infantry engaging with Hamas combatants in the Tel al-Sultan neighborhood, the last remaining Hamas stronghold in Rafah. As terrorists were emerging from a tunnel they were hit with a missile, killing them and blowing up the tunnel entrance. You can read more here.
Despite Al-Jazeera lies to the contrary, the IDF has produced evidence gleaned from the computer disk drives found during it many operations in Hamas operations facilities that proves that its so called reporter, Ismail Al-Ghoul, was also a member of Hamas’s Nukhba force and participated in the October 7 attack on Israel. The Qatari government owned and operated media network was kicked out of Israel about three months ago after its reporters were found to have filmed security facilities of the IDF.
Lebanon Operations
Early this afternoon Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets against villages in Israel’s north, near the Lebanese border. Israel responded with artillery striking sites from where the rockets were launched. In addition, Israeli fighter jets struck several buildings used as military facilities by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon.
An IDF drone launched a missile, destroying an automobile driving along the Beirut-Damascus highway. I suspect we will learn more tomorrow about who was in the car at the time. You can see a video of the burning automobile here. These assassinations are being almost a daily activity. In a totally separate operations, which you can view here, an IDF drone assassinated Ali Abd Ali near the coastal city of Tyre. The IDF identified Ali as a commander in Hezbollah’s southern front, responsible in planning and carrying out numerous attacks against Israel since Hezbollah initiated this conflict on October 8, 2023. And according to sources within Hezbollah, Israeli fighter jets struck a convoy of tanker trucks carrying fuel from Syria to Lebanon in the Hawsh el-Sayyed Ali area along the Syrian-Lebanese border.
In an interview on CBS, an Hezbollah spokesman said that until now Hezbollah has limited its attacks to a zone limited to near the Lebanese border. But after Israel’s assassination of Fuad Shukr in Beirut they intend to extend their attacks to civilian and military facilities deeper in Israel. He mentioned nothing about the rocket attack on Majdal Shams and the killing of 12 children playing football.
Both the UK and USA advised all its citizens in Lebanon to evacuate as soon as possible using “any ticket available”. This would not happen if they didn’t believe that a serious escalation in cross border attacks was not imminent. Sweden announced the closure of its embassy in Lebanon. In the meantime there are reports that the US Army is deploying additional fighter jets and naval vessels to the Middle East for the purpose of asserting defensive operations in the event of a large attack from Iran and its proxies.
Yemen Operations
USA Central Command CENTCOM announced that it successfully destroyed a Houthi missile launcher in Yemen.
Syria/Iraq/Egypt/Jordan/Turkiye/Iran
Iran’s Iranian Revolutionary Guard IRGC now claims that Haniyeh was killed by a short range projectile launched from within Iran. I think that they are lying. It is a major, huge embarrassment for the IRGC that a senior foreign offficial, heading an allied terror organization, under their protection and residing in a facility that they owned/operated was killed while visiting Iran in order to attend the inauguration of the new President. The Iranians are behaving in a total panic as they try to figure out who was involved in this attack. Even senior members of the IRGC are being arrested. In this report on The New York Times, Iranian officials are describing a rampant, out of control wave of arrests that are including members of the IRGC as Iran tries to figure out what happened in the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. And in this report in the The Telegraph, more details on how the Haniyeh assassination unfolded and how it happened. And this report in the Israeli Press reports on an Iranian Government in Chaos - :-)))))) .
Reports coming out of Syria describe strikes against the Dabaa Airport not far from the Lebanese border by missiles fired from fighter jets. This airport is used for transporting arms from Iran and other sources to Hezbollah. Last week, a neighborhood of Damascus, Sayyidah Zaynab, was hit by missiles fired from a fighter jet. This neighborhood has a major presence of Iranian military and diplomatic officials.
Turkiye has blocked Instagram from operating inside its border. It claims that the social media platform is censoring certain content selectively. Apparently Instagram was blocking posts praising Ismail Haniyeh. But sources inside Turkiye are saying that the real reason is that posts on Instagram were insulting to Ataturk, the founder of the Turkish Republic.
General Mood - Israel
Everyone here is preparing for and expecting a significant attack over the next week or two. People are stocking up on goods at the grocery stores - including white goods like toilet paper and bottled water. Many Israelis are stranded in Europe, as this is vacation time, as flights get cancelled to/from Israeli airports. Most are trying to make their way to either Athens or Cyprus, where the Israeli carriers have many flights each day. People are cleaning out and preparing their bomb shelters. Everyone waits to hear the sirens… In a recent poll, most Israelis believe that only an all out war with Hezbollah will end the strife near our northern border and allow Israeli citizens to return to their homes.
IDF General
The IDF has successfully tested a new Sa’ar Class Sea-to-Air Missile used in anti-missile operations. You can see a video here.
I have seen numerous reports in Western Press questioning the wisdom of these assassinations and whether they have any real long term impact, given that the officials are replaced in short order. I think that these reports just reflect a growing weakness in the West for directly dealing with the jihadis taking terror actions in order to bring down the Western order of things. It is clear in retrospect that the US assassination of Qassem Soleimani, leader of the IRGC, had a profound and long term impact on the effectiveness of Iran coordination of its proxy states. Likewise, the assassination of Mohammed Deif (whose born last name is al-Masri, which means “the Egyptian” in Arabic) will have a profound effect on Hamas and its operations. Same is true for Shukr in Hezbollah and even Haniyeh. Yes, all these people will replaced in short order. But none have the skills, respect, knowledge and contacts needed to immediately assume the roles of the terrorists they replace. Remember, we are not dealing with democratically elected officials, but people who rise through the ranks, often by eliminating the competition. There will be contention and resentment within the ranks over who should replace these individuals and it will take considerable time for any replacement to become as effective as the person they replaced. When you have an organization operating within an infrastructure of a democracy, replacements are gleaned and prepped well in advance. Relationships are documented and people prepare their subordinates to take over. At least this is how it works here in Israel, most of the time. Here you will see the organization chart of Hamas’s military leadership and which ones are known to have been killed, along with a worthwhile analysis the effect on these types of assassinations.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Tempers are flaring within the government now as all the top security officials reporting to the Prime Minister are pushing the government to seize the currently negotiated deal without the most recent four demands amended by Netanyahu to the deal. These officials included the Shin Bet Director, Mossad Director, Minister of Defence and Chief of Staff. All are now publicly pushing the government to seize the current deal so we can retrieve some of the hostages held by Hamas. They are argue that Netanyahu knows that adding these new four demands will kill a deal. There are rumors that Netanyahu is looking to fire all four of these officials for what he views as “insubordination”. Further, there are rumors that Netanyahu will tap MK Gideon Sa’ar to take the role of Defense Minister in the current government. Sa’ar used to be a senior member of Netanyahu’s Likud but left as he was regularly looked over for senior positions in the government and saw himself as Prime Minister material. He and the other three members of his party would, in this scenario, join the government. Should this happen, it is my opinion, that it will “rock” the country. The approval rating of Defence Minister Gallant is the highest amongst any government official including prospective alternative party heads. He was the one that warned the government about the impact of the Judicial Reforms on the preparedness of the army and insisted that they be shelved. Netanyahu “fired” him, but had to retract due to public pressure. It is also my opinion that should Sa’ar and his party make this move it will end his career. Once this government leaves office he will have no where to go. Meanwhile, as this drama looks to unfold, the heads of the Mossad and Shin Bet are scheduled to head to Cairo in an effort to try and conclude the hostage deal. What is not apparent to us, the Israeli public, is within the scope of the currently proposed deal, how does the IDF prevent illegal arms from being brought through the tunnels crossing into Egypt without Israel’s control of the Philadelphi Corridor. Controlling this corridor is one of the four new demands comprising Netanyahu’s new amendments.
Aid
COGAT reports that 173 aid trucks entered Gaza on Friday..
International
There are reports now that under the new Labour Government, the UK is holding up arms sales to Israel.
And in a most appropriate way, Ayelet Samerano, the mother of her hostage son Yonaton, confronted UNRWA’s Director Philippe Lazzarini, during a speech he was making in Switzerland lamenting the killing of 200 organization workers. She interrupted his speech, accusing him and the organization of being terrorists that abducted her son. She shouted:
UNRWA kidnapped my son's body. Where is he, Mr Lazzarini? I want my son back!
Good for Ayelet!!! Members of Lazzarini’s organization, participated in the murder of Israelis, aided and abetted other who did as well as teach Arab children on how to hate and kill Jews.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
A couple months ago Senator Lindsey Graham visited Israel and delivered this incredible speech that I was recently made aware of. It is about 20 minutes and I recommend you listen to it.
And almost as if the articles were coordinated, here is an analysis appearing in The Federalist describing how comments from the Presidential Candidate, Kamala Harris, recently contributes to the prolonging of the war.
And this article is based on anecdotal conversations between Lebanese civilians living in Beirut and an Israeli reporter on what they think will happen after the assassination of Fuad Shukr.
Wouldn't a ship that launches missiles be a high value target?