Today’s Image
Today Ariel Bibas turned five years old. He, his brother Kfir and both his parents were kidnapped on October 7 and remain in Gaza. Protests were held around the country with protestors wearing orange to honor this young man’s birthday. Ariel is in the photo to the left. In the middle is the Chords Bridge at the entrance to Jerusalem all lit up in orange to celebrate his birthday. And on the right is a photo of him with his family, including baby Ariel who celebrated his first birthday in captivity in January.
Gaza Rockets
Today, 15 rockets were launched from Gaza’s Khan Younis at Israeli communities along the border. Most were intercepted but a few hit a major traffic junction. A civilian 37 years old was hurt by shrapnel, was rushed to the hospital and is in good condition.
Casualties
No IDF casualties have been reported in the past nine days.
Gaza Operations
On Saturday I reported on IDF infantry with aerial support destroying a makeshift Hamas command center created out of a former UNRWA school. The IDF announced today that the commander of Hamas’s Sheikh Radwan Battalion, Jaber Aziz, was killed in that air strike. Several other Hamas combatants met their demise in that attack as well. At the time there were no civilians in the building. Aziz worked under Mohammed Deif and was part of the planning of the October 7 attack. You can read more here.
And today the IDF announced that it killed Hamas’s Economic Minister in an air strike yesterday. The official’s name is And al-Fattah al-Zari’i. Apparently he also served as a co-supervisor of Hamas’s arms manufacturing operations. And according to these reports he also served as leading the efforts to confiscate the many truck loads of aid confiscated by Hamas throughout the conflict, including fuel. They report that his mother was also killed in the strike.
It is natural to ask why it has taken the IDF so long to start taking out these important commanders. The answer is that they have been “holed up” in the underground tunnels. But as the IDF destroys more and more of them, they have no choice but to come up and plan their operations above ground. In addition, their abilities to ventilate the tunnels is diminished as more and more of them are either destroyed or their entrances blocked. So they are “coming up for air” more and more frequently. When they do this, IDF Intelligence can locate them and kill them. This is how the IDF took out Deif and Salame a couple weeks ago. This is how they took out Aziz late last week. And at some point, Sinwar will surface and IDF will take him out as well. It is not a matter of “if” but “when”. I would predict that the IDF knows where Sinwar is now, but can’t take him out due to hostages nearby and that he still spends most of his time underground. In fact, there were reports from a week ago that the IDF Paratroopers Battalion spotted Sinwar in a tunnel but could not react fast enough to act. It is just a matter of statistics and probability.
During fighting in Rafah today, seven IDF reservists were wounded in what appears to have been an explosion resulting from either a grenade or other explosive device thrown by a small unit of Hamas combatants. Four of them remain in serious condition.
Yesterday I reported on the uncovering of a tunnel traversing between Gaza and Egypt through which vehicles as large as a Humvee could drive. Today, the IDF reports that it has found 40 tunnels crossing the Gaza-Egyptian border so far. And Egypt appears to be denying their existence. Perhaps they think that the IDF build the tunnels?? And one of the recently uncovered tunnels has tracks laid. Not for a subway or train, but for motorized carts that can quickly move contraband and smuggled arms from Egypt to Gaza. You can read more here.
Lebanon Operations
This afternoon an IDF drone fired a missile at members of an Hezbollah cell operating in southern Lebanon’s village Mays al-Jabal. Following the strike Hezbollah announced this killing of several of its combatants including an Ali Shuqair.
Earlier in the day the IDF shot down two kamikaze drones sent by Hezbollah near the north western part of the country, even before sirens were sounded. This morning a barrage of rockets were fired at the northern Israel city of Kiryat Shmona.
And very early this morning an IDF officer and soldier were moderately wounded as the result of an Hezbollah kamikaze drone exploding not far from their military base in the north. Last night Israeli fighter jets destroyed several Hezbollah facilities in southern Lebanon including two arms storage facilities. During the operations they found and killed, using jet fired missiles, Ali Jamal Aldin Jawad, a commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Force. Hezbollah announced the death of Ali Ralab Shakir in the same operation, but it was not clear what position he had in the organization. The IDF insists that he was a senior commander.
Yemen Operations
Yesterday, I reported on the first Houthi attack on a commercial ship since Israel’s operation on the al-Hodeidah Port in Yemen. A Liberian flagged container ship named Groton near the Gulf of Aden. The missile strike caused minor damage, above the ship’s water line (that means it is not in danger of sinking). The crew was not hurt and the ship is heading to a nearby safe port for repairs. The ship was transporting goods from the United Arab Emirates to Jeddah, Saudi Arabia which is a major city on the Red Sea. So the Houthis just damaged the ship carrying good between one Arab state to another. This NBC report provides details.
Syria/Iraq/Egypt/Jordan/Turkiye/Iran
President for Life of Turkiye, Tayyip Erdogan, accused Twitter and the other Social Media Platforms of conducting “digital fascism”. I think that he may have just invented a new term. I have never heard that used before. He claims that Instagram, TikTok and Facebook are blocking posts favorable to the Palestinian cause. This guy is really off his rocker. The real reason has nothing to do with the Palestinian cause. Turks inside the country are claiming that there are posts critical of his regime that are causing him to be furious.
Rockets were fired at an air base in Iraq housing US military personnel. For the moment this is all that was reported.
Egypt announced today that it will not actively assist Israel in repelling any drones or missiles that might cross its air space. But, it also informed Iran that it will not permit any missiles violating its air space. Jordan made similar statements, saying it will deny use of its airspace to the US, Israel or Iran.
It was reported that a large fire broke out at an array of fuel storage tanks along the Iranian-Afghanistan border which has seen several cross border skirmishes recently.
General Mood - Israel
We went to the supermarket this evening. Traffic was normal and, except for bottled water, the shelves were stocked as normal. But, in everything we are doing here we factor in, where will go when we hear the sirens? Do we have batteries for our radio in the event that they knock out our electric power distribution network? Do we have water collected so we can flush the toilets, or at least enough for 3 days so we can function with running water? Is our bomb shelter cleaned out and ready? These are the questions running through everyone’s minds. And I can say this with absolute conviction… I HAVE NOT MET A SINGLE PERSON HERE WHO SAYS IT WAS A MISTAKE TO ASSASSINATE DEIF, SHUKR OR HANIYEH. Many people, however, are saying that it should have been done earlier in the conflict. Everyone is willing to deal with what comes, but everyone knows the significance of these operations.
IDF General
A report appeared on CNN today describing how the number of killed Hamas operatives are not as large as claimed by Prime Minister Netanyahu in his speech to US Congress and how many of Israel’s stated objectives are still not being meet after 10 months. Here is the article for you to read. There are a couple of live interviews also a part of the report. The data quoted in the article is dated from July 1, 2024. And then here is an article in the Israeli Press that also describes the progress of the IDF on its stated goals. It was written in the middle of July.
The IDF issued a response to the CNN report this evening. Here are excerpts:
From the intelligence and findings on the ground, most of the Hamas Brigades have been dismantled. It is estimated that most of the battalions are at a low level of competency and can no longer function as a military framework… The claims made in the article contradict the achievements of the forces on the ground, and create a false representation of the situation of Hamas in Gaza…
I will first focus on the CNN article. While some of the data came from Israeli officials, the analysis is done by reporters and US military analysts. One cannot look at this from a US perspective. In October, it was clear to the IDF, the government and the Israeli population that this was not going to be a quick war, achieving its goals and then send the troops back home. The war front is on our home front. We do not have the luxury of US troops of leaving a conflict arena and heading home. The conflict is taking place IN OUR HOME. Gaza is 1 km from the homes of our citizens. And we knew that Hamas would hide in the tunnels and amongst the civilian population. On one side the world expect the IDF to respect the lives of Gazan civilians, which it does. But doing so means that we must evacuate areas of Gaza in advance which allows Hamas combatants to blend in with the civilians. Then we clean out the area, destroy the tunnels. Then Hamas re-assembles. This is expected and no surprise here. If we just launched 1,000 lb bombs and carpet bombed Gaza like the allies did in Germany during WW2 or the massive loss of life in Japan, we would have reached our objectives in the first month. But, we answer to a higher authority here and we don’t just blanket bomb civilians. So, this means that we go into an area destroy infrastructure, tunnels and kill/capture how many combatants we can. Then we know that we will have to go back in later. We do this in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) now as we have little choice. Terrorists are constantly smuggling in weapons and trying to launch operations against Israel. And this is going to go on in Gaza for many years to come as well. This is not what we want, but in order to survive this is what we must do.
So, I take issue with some former US Military Officers sitting in the USA thinking that they know or understand enough about our situation to provide us either criticism or advice. I wouldn’t call Iraq or Afghanistan success stories. And, luckily our IDF officers listened to the advice given by the US Generals sent by the Biden Administration early in the war, but then chose to ignore the advice. It was the USA that told us it would take 3 months to evacuate Rafah and there would be thousands of civilians killed. Well, it 15 days and there hasn’t been a civilian killed in Rafah yet. But more than 1,500 Hamas combatants have been killed.
And some of this is “is the glass half full or half empty”. Now that much of the military infrastructure in Gaza has been destroyed - not all, but a lot - there are fewer and fewer places for Hamas commanders to meet and plan operations against the IDF. So they surface, meet in a civilian building, we find them and we kill them. This is happening more and more. And, as the war proceeds the pace of this will pick up…. Well at least this is my view and I do not think that my 2 years in Naval ROTC qualifies me to be a Military Analyst, it is just common sense.
USA CENTCOM chief General Michael Kurilla arrived today in Israel and met with the Israeli Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi to discuss planning for the expected, imminent attack coming from Iran and its proxies. Today Antony Blinken informed other G7 country Foreign Ministers that the US believed that the attack would take place sometime today, Monday. I highly doubt that. It took two weeks for Iran to coordinate its response to Israel’s assassination of several of its Iranian Revolutionary Guard commanders in Syria to respond with that 500 airborne missile and drone attack. and that was only coordinated from within the country. Now they are trying to coordinate across multiple fronts and multiple proxies - Yemen, Iraq, Lebanon and Syria.
The commander of the northern divisions announced today that they are prepared for anything sent their way. I am not as confident.
There has been some talk, just talk, about not waiting for Iran to launch its operation, but to preemptively taking the initiative against Iran. I do not think that this will be implemented, but it is clear that the IDF has already started preparing for how it intends to react. Speaking of preemptive actions, Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, who castigates the government each and every day regardless of what they do or decide,
Aid
COGAT reports that 252 trucks bearing aid crossed the border into Gaza today. Only 63 aid trucks were collected leaving an accumulated 600 trucks worth of humanitarian aid accumulating inside Gaza waiting for distribution. Did someone say that the IDF was restricting aid into Gaza????
Hostages/Ceasefire
In what I view as a crazy rationale, it was announced that all hostage/ceasefire negotiations are on hold until Iran conducts its strike. It seems like the whole world is in standby waiting for Iran… stupid and crazy to allow a terrorist regime bring the world to a standstill. But, it does appear that the negotiating teams are waiting to see who replaces Haniyeh, which is also crazy as he was just a messenger between Sinwar and the intermediaries - Egypt and Qatar.
Today, Israel returned 80 dead Hamas combatants to Gaza. The hostage families are furious as they demand an explanation as to why the bodies of those hostages that died were not traded.
There are reports here that as part of the current proposal being circulated amongst the parties, the USA is going to be providing Israel written assurances that after the first stage of the ceasefire, the IDF will be able to resume its operations in Gaza. It seems to me that this is not practical. Perhaps the side agreement is that the Biden Administration will support Israel’s position that it retains the right to re-enter Gaza after the six week period. But, in my eyes even that is suspect. Here is a full analysis of the situation by an Israeli military correspondent that I respect.
Politics/Protests
There is another crisis resurfacing inside this government. Far right wing leader and Minister of National Security, Itamar Ben Gvir, is threatening again to block bills that were promised to one of the ultra-orthodox political parties unless he is placed on a War Cabinet level position to steer the war effort. Should he be granted such a role, I predict that more than half the country will be in the streets demanding new elections. This guy is just blackmailing the ruling coalition whenever he thinks that he can. Then he goes out and tells the public that “we are all brothers”. He should not be given this responsibility AND the ultra-orthodox party, Shas, should not be enabled to enact this bill as all it does it pay off members of his political party with favors as local rabbinic positions.
And former Prime Minister Ehud Barak has been doing nothing since the start of the war other than castigating the government no matter what it does. Now he has called for massive civil disobedience, including not reporting for reserve duty, across the country until there are new elections. What an irresponsible jerk.
It was reported today that 90,000 citizens signed up for a WhatsApp Group that is preparing for mass rallies should Defense Minister Gallant or the Attorney General be fired by Prime Minister Netanyahu. Most likely, I will join the group. You may recall that the last time Netanyahu tried to fire Gallant, at the peak of the Judicial Reform Mess, hundreds of thousands of people poured into the street which caused Netanyahu to reverse his decision.
Today, the ultra-orthodox that were sent draft notices were supposed to show up at the designated draft offices. Some ultra-orthodox staged sit in protests outside a couple of the draft offices. A small number of the protesters turned violent. About ten were arrested. At the time I write this, it was estimated that only 500 of the 3,000 that received draft notices appears at the draft board. The IDF said that this was a very disappointing turnout and the government will need to discuss how to change this situation as the manpower needs of the IDF are acute. Apparently some came but did not want to confront the protestors out front. You can read more here.
International
Well, as Gomer Pyle would say - “Surprise, Surprise, Surprise”… (for those of you under the age of 60, go due an internet search on ‘Gamer Pyle’) - the Un now acknowledges that UNRWA employees “may have been involved” in Hamas’s October 7 attacks. The IDF has been saying this for nine months now and providing all the proof. They investigated a total of 19 employees and concluded that 9 did participate and that they were being fired. The IDF insists that hundreds of UNRWA employees are part of Hamas’s military infrastructure. If they bother to investigate those cases they will find the majority of them a part of Hamas as well. Israel’s ambassador to the UN castigated the UN report saying that they ignored hundreds of the cases and documentation submitted by Israel. He said emphatically that the collaboration between UNRWA employees and Hamas is as if they were a single organization…. which they are. You can read more here.
And almost as if all of a sudden UN officials are developing a conscience, Un experts are now calling for the prosecution of Iranian officials who may have committed crimes against humanity during the 2022 crackdown on their own citizens as they were demonstrating. But now they are claiming that there are no viable means for serving justice against those found guilty in Iran. Hundreds of Iranian citizens were killed and even more imprisoned during the crackdown due to a young woman of Kurdish descent not covering her hair properly. Among the accusations against these officials include:
unnecessary use of lethal force, arbitrary arrests, torture, rape, enforced disappearances and gender persecution.
Iran has requested an emergency meeting of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation for this Wednesday to discuss the killing of Ismail Haniyeh. For some reason they appear to be seeking some kind of joint statement either permitting Iran to respond or requesting Iran to respond. You can read more here. Up until now, most of the Gulf Countries have been willing to condemn the assassination, but all are calling for Iran to show restraint in order to avoid an all out war. So, not sure what Iran expects from this.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
You should read this…. Farsi speaking reporters on the staff of this paper spoke with several private citizens in Iran and asked them what they thought about the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. Read their responses.
It is unusual for me to post something appearing on BBC since its reporting is so obviously biased against Israel. But in this report from yesterday, Sunday, you can see a video of Israel’s Iron Dome taking out some of the rockets launched by Hezbollah in a large barrage. A bit of Star Wars….
This article in The Economist attempts to imagine how Hamas will react and regroup in the aftermath of Haniyeh’s assassination. I found it interesting because it does provide some useful insights into Hamas, its internal machinations and what happened on October 7.