Today’s Image
This evening IDF fighter jets struck a major arms manufacturing and storage facility in northeastern Lebanon near the Syrian border. As described later in this post, one can see videos of the strike and many explosions taking place as other arms stored by Hezbollah explode.
Gaza Rockets
No rockers fired from Gaza landed in Israel in the past four days.
Casualties
In what would be defined as friendly fire, Lt. Shahar Ben Nun - 21 (Z’’L) was killed today during operations in Khan Younis. A missile fired from an Israeli fighter jet veered off course and struck a building where Ben Nun and his team were staying.
And in the north, a kamikaze drone struck a small settlement in northern Israel, Ya’ara, about 3 km south of the Lebanese border. One soldier was seriously wounded and is recovering nicely in the hospital. But Chief Warrant Officer Mahmoud Amaris - 45 (Z’’L), a Bedouin officer in the IDF, was killed from shrapnel.
This brings the total number of IDF soldiers killed in Gaza during operations to 335.
Gaza Operations
Fighting in Khan Younis is reported to be intense, near what is believed to be a remaining hot bed of terrorists, in Deir al-Balah. During the course of fighting, the IDF infantry spotted a cell of Hamas combatants rushing into a tunnel entrance to take cover. They followed in pursuit and uncovered a 1 ½ km long tunnel with weapons, rockets, rocket launchers and other equipment, along with the combatants. Here you can see the Engineering Corp blowing up the tunnel from underground. This tunnel was quite strategic as it bordered both Khan Younis and Deir al-Balah. So destroying it was important as it eliminates one more place where the terrorists can take refuge.
Deir al-Balah and Nuseirat remain the two main areas where Hamas fighters remain. It is difficult for the IDF to go into these areas because this is where the hostages are being held. As you might recall, in June the IDF launched a daring raid into Nuseirat that caught the Hamas battalions there off guard as they rescued four hostages. Hamas has changed their methods of guarding the hostages making a repeat of such an operation a near impossibility without seeing hostages at risk.
Meanwhile, in the Tel Sultan neighborhood of Rafah ground operations continue as well. Infantry troops there uncovered the site from where rockets were recently launched into Israel. The launchers and rockets were destroyed. They were fired from an area adjacent to an UNRWA school.
As I have noted in many previous posts, Hamas is using hospitals, schools, mosques and other civilian facilities from which to launch rockets and prepare its ground operations. At this point, all these civilian facilities are unoccupied as nearly all the civilians are now in the humanitarian zone. So when Western reporters or those from Al-Jazeera proclaim to the world that the IDF attacked a school it is just intended to create animosity towards Israel. Except for some unusual cases, there are no civilians in these locations now.
Overall, the IDF now estimates that it has killed about 17,000 combatants during the fighting in Gaza. Another 1,000 were killed on Israeli soil on October 7 and the days following. There are probably another 4-5,000 seriously injured and unable to return to combat roles. And there are an estimated 2-3,000 captured and serving in Israeli jails and detention centers. This last figure is an estimate as the IDF is not publicizing the actual number. If these numbers are close to accurate (an unknown at this point), then there are an estimated 4-5,000 combatants remaining in Gaza. Probably only half are attached to any real, organized battalion.
Lebanon Operations
This evening Israeli fighter jets struck numerous weapons depots in the northeastern section of Lebanon, not far from the Syrian border. This area is the main missile and rocket production areas and the staging for arms smuggled across the Syrian border. Iran’s IRGC has full operational freedom throughout much of Syria. They are using it to supply arms into Lebanon, southern Syria and even into parts of Jordan. You can see a video of the attack here. You should note both the secondary explosions and the many rockets that fired in the aftermath.
And earlier in the day, an IDF drone struck a moving automobile in southern Lebanon killing its occupants. It was later announced that the target was Hussein Ali Hussein. Apparently he was a senior official in Hezbollah’s Rocket and Missile Unit, in southern Lebanon. You can see a photo of the aftermath here. And a video from the view of the drone here.
This morning, Hezbollah launched five kamikaze drones towards Israel. Air defenses took out two of them, but three landed in communities along Israel’s northern border. One landed in an open field, but the other did damage to a civilian building, killed one IDF officer and injured an IDF soldier.
Also this morning, IDF drones carried out strikes on Hezbollah facilities in southern Lebanon, including rocket launching and nearby arms storage facilities.
Yesterday, I reported on the conflicting claims regarding fuel and energy supplies in Lebanon. Today, this article appeared in the English Israeli Press describing more details about the recent Lebanese power outage, which is apparently being blamed on Hezbollah.
Yemen Operations
It has been 31 days since the IDF struck Yemen’s port of Al-Hodeidah, and without any missiles fired from Yemen towards Israel. USA CENTCOM said early this morning that it destroyed a Houthi unmanned marine vessel that was targeting nearby commercial ships.
IDF General
Yesterday, a truck transporting explosives blew up in the southern part of Tel Aviv killing its driver and injuring, minor, a few people nearby. It has now been determined that it was an attempted suicide bombing that went off prematurely. Had the driver reached the intended destination, not revealed, it could have been devastating. Both Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad took credit for it.
Aid
During US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s press conference here in Israel he remarked that the Israeli government has agreed to support efforts to vaccinate, massively, the children in Gaza against polio. He said that the USA is helping in a support role and discussions with the aid organizations are underway on how to implement this. As I remarked yesterday, the vaccines are already in Gaza. There just needs to be a massive inoculation program started.
The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) issued a report documenting the death of aid workers in over 33 countries around the world. Amongst those killed this year half, about 160, were killed during the course of battles in Gaza. What they don’t describe is how many of those aid workers were also moonlighting for Hamas. Certainly not all, but without doubt many.
COGAT reports that 185 trucks with aid entered Gaza yesterday, most through the northern border crossing with Israel. There remain about 550 trucks worth of aid sitting inside the staging areas of Gaza waiting for distribution.
Politics/Protests
The government is planning a state memorial to commemorate one year since the October 7 attack. Leader of the opposition, Yair Lapid, announced the he will not attend since “this government is not legitimate and is not worthy of their memory.” I guess that there is nothing like seeking unity across political boundaries. This guy has made everything he says and does completely political for the benefit of his views and his party. But, I must say that there are some of the affected communities from the south that were hard hit in the attack that are also saying they will not participate.
I am continuing to report on the aftermath of the recent violent attack by extremist Israelis on an Arab village in Judea/Samaria (West Bank). Today, as the investigation continues, two more Israelis were placed under arrest and are being questioned by Israel’s Shin Bet
Hostages/Ceasefire
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has been a busy guy. He arrived in Israel Sunday afternoon. He met with President Herzog, then this morning with Prime Minister Netanyahu, then Defense Minister Gallant (and some other cabinet members) and this evening he met with representatives from the families of the hostages. The meeting with the Prime Minster lasted a full three hours. At the end there was a press conference at which Blinken announced that Netanyahu has accepted the US Deal Proposal as recently modified and that he believes that Hamas should accept it as well. He made a point of saying that it is now up to Hamas. The main issue remains how to deal with Rafah and the border crossing from Egypt. Israel insists that it must no longer provide a means for Hamas to smuggle arms and materials that can be used for constructing arms/tunnels. And the only way that this can be assured is if the IDF remains at the border. It is my guess that some compromises are being made along these lines. The Prime Minister announced that Israel’s team of negotiators will be dispatched to Cairo this week for the purpose of continuing the talks.
It is my opinion that the ultimate decision maker in this entire interconnected set of maneuvers is Yahya Sinwar. While he is largely dependent on Iran and will do anything, or most anything, to maintain a long term and close relationship with the Ayatollahs. This is because it is the only organization that Hamas can rely on for financial and military support. But, it has been Sinwar’s interests since October 7 to do whatever he can to broaden the fighting from not just Gaza but to Lebanon, Syria and even engage Iran. So, at one level he will do what he can to broaden the war. Given, that Iran and Hezbollah have both sworn to get revenge for the assassinations on their soil of senior leaders in the “axis of resistance”, it should not be hard to make the broadening of the war happen. On the other hand, there are elements in Iran that wish to see the IRGC from launching a wide scale attack against Israel as they know it will prompt a serious response and is likely to lead to destruction of major military and civilian infrastructure - oil fields, ports, nuclear sites, missile manufacturing sites, etc. So, in an odd way, it is my view that it will be Iran really deciding on elements of the ceasefire deal and projecting their influence on Hamas. They want to see Hamas survive to fight another day. But, that is exactly what Israel needs to prevent happening. For all these reasons, it is my belief that a true hostage/ceasefire deal will prove elusive again.
International
The Scottish government announced today that they will now longer meet with or host meetings with Israeli officials, until there is real progress in a peace deal. The government’s External Affairs Secretary, Angus Robertson, met two weeks ago with the deputy Israeli envoy to Scotland. Just this simple meeting caused a huge uproar in Parliament.
Algeria announced that it intends to build three field hospitals in Gaza once the border crossing with Egypt reopens.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
This article appearing in the Wall Street Journal, written by two US experts on Iran, addresses the current situation in Iran and how Israeli policies may be shifting in how it deals with the “axis of resistance” ongoing threat. I highly recommend you read it, if you can get past the paywall.
You may recall the Hamas claim that 70 civilians were killed in Israel’s attack on a former UNRWA school on August 11. This claim came from the hospital where many of the injured were sent. You may remember this because this was the time that the IDF showed photos and names of all the Hamas combatants killed in the attack, which the IDF estimated at around 40-45. Well in this investigative report, by Honest Reporting, we see documented evidence that the director of the hospital receiving the patients and making the outrageous casualty claims is actually a Hamas operative. You should read this.
And this from Commentary Magazine describing some of the intricacies and perceived changes in the current incarnation of the hostage/ceasefire deal, with a defense of the Prime Minister’s positions.
https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/two-state-solution-israelis-palestinians-708b6075?mod=hp_lead_pos7
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/yokra14039984
https://www.israelnationalnews.com/news/394723
https://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/4518/media-hamas