Today’s Image
This is the Israeli built Iron Dome system in action. Today, Lebanon launched a barrage of more than 50 rockets at the largest city, Katzrin, on the Golan Heights. Iron Dome took out many of them but enough got through that it damages several homes and caused injury to one resident.
Gaza Rockets
No rockers fired from Gaza landed in Israel in the past four days.
Casualties
No IDF casualties in the past 2 days.
Gaza Operations
The big news yesterday was that the IDF recovered 6 of the Israeli hostages killed while in captivity. They were found in a tunnel inside Khan Younis. Within less than 24 hours of receiving intelligence on where they were located the IDF launched a full recovery mission requiring the Engineering Corp to enter a 10 meter tunnel shaft leading to a large tunnel complex. From the intelligence they knew where to find the bodies. Hamas attempted to hide the bodies as they were found behind a false wall inside the tunnel. The entry to the tunnel was enabled by the intense fighting in the area in the previous two days. There were Hamas guards in the vicinity attempting to block entry into the tunnels. They were eliminated during the course of the operation.
Included among the six hostage bodies are: Alex Dancyg - 75 (Z’’L), Yagev Guchschtav - 35 (Z’’L),, Chaim Peri - 79 (Z’’L),, Yoram Metzger - 80 (Z’’L),, Nadav Popplewell - 51 (Z’’L), and Avraham Munder - 78 (Z’’L). All were killed while in captivity. The IDF had previously declared all but Munder dead previously based on gathered intelligence. Most were killed while in captivity in Khan Younis, underground. Autopsies are being conducted to understand the cause of death, including the possibility of friendly fire from IDF operations.
And fighting in Rafah continues, still focused on the northern neighborhood of Tel Sultan. There IDF infantry, yesterday, spotted terrorist cells operating from within a building armed with RPGs. All were killed. It was estimated that Hamas casualties resulting from combat operations numbered more than 50 in the past two days. And during the past 24 hours the IDF continued to locate and strike several military sites within Gaza. Infantry troops outside Deir al-Balah encountered dozens of armed Hamas combatants, defeated them and entered their local stronghold where many arms were found.
And inside Gaza City, the IDF uncovered yesterday an evacuated school being used by Hamas for storing ammunition and launching rockets was hit by a missile taking out only the operatives stationed there and the arms storage facility. And today, in a different neighborhood the IDF uncovered the use of Hamas of the Salah al-Din School inside Gaza City for storing arms and as an operational center. Using, lightweight missiles the group was struck by a drone operating in the air limiting the damage to the three rooms being used by the terrorists. You can see the building from the air here and the limited zone hit by the missile.
Today, Defense Minister Gallant visited IDF troops along the Rafah border area, Philadelphi Corridor. In his statements to the troops he announced that more than 150 tunnels were found in Rafah. He did not delineate how many crossed the border into Egypt. But from pervious statements it would have to be nearly fifty, some of which could accommodate trucks. During his visit he formally announced the defeat of the Hamas brigades there were once inside Rafah. You can read more here.
Lebanon Operations
Yesterday more than 40 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into northern Israel, along with several kamikaze drones. Altogether, more than 115 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Israel yesterday. This is a factor of 10 increase over the previous rate.
Late last night Israeli fighter jets struck several arms manufacturing facilities in the Beak’s Valley near Lebanon’s eastern border with Syria. This is the same area struck on Monday late night. And once again, there were many secondary explosions resulting from the stored armaments igniting. These strikes must be very effective. You know that when the next day Hezbollah intensifies its attacks on Israel’s northern border.
Late this afternoon Hezbollah launched a barrage of 50 rockets hitting the Golan Heights area. Several buildings in the main city in the Golan Heights, Katzrin, were hit. One 33 year old man was hit by shrapnel and had to be rushed to the hospital. After surgery, he has recovered and will recover from a broken foot. You can see photos and videos here.
Not long after that barrage, Israeli jet fighters located and demolished the area from which the rockets were fired.
This afternoon the IDF conducted an assassination in the Lebanese coastal city of Sidon that resulted in the death of a Fatah official, Khalil Makdah. According to the IDF Makkah has been working to bring in arms and money to pay terrorists into Judea/Samaria (West Bank) for the purpose of carrying out terror attacks inside Israel.
Earlier in the afternoon, Hezbollah launched several kamikaze drones. All were either neutralized by aerial defense missiles or landed in open fields. No injuries ore serious damage.
Yemen Operations
According to the British UKMTO, maritime authority, a merchant vessel was hit by two aerial projectiles fired by the Houthis. After a third one hit, the vessel reported damage and the inability to navigate (steer) the boat.
Syria/Turkiye/Jordan/Iraq/Iran
Today a spokesman for the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp IRGC said that Iran’s retaliation could take a long time and they want to make “the enemy” nervous. Well, I see very few signs at this stage that Israeli’s are changing their behaviors. Cafes, bars and restaurants are full.
IDF General
As reported on Monday, a new IDF Military Intelligence Director was sworn in, Maj. Gen. Shlomo Binder. Today he said that the organization must focus its efforts on the recovery of the remaining hostages. In addition, he said that the organization will launch an internal probe to find out where it failed in predicting and preparing for the October 7 attack by Hamas. To quote:
Where we failed, we will need to investigate and improve; where we made mistakes we will learn and change; where fractures were opened, however big they are, we will insist to fix and repent. The Israeli people have no other country, the State of Israel doesn’t have another IDF, and the IDF doesn’t have another Intelligence Directorate.
And in the outgoing speech of Binder’s predecessor, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, he said in his tearful address:
We did not live up to our sacred oath. I did everything to be a loyal soldier of the IDF and the State of Israel. I was given the greatest privilege to serve the State of Israel and its citizens. On that Shabbat, we did not fulfill the most important mission which we are tasked with, providing a warning of war.
Aid
Yesterday, the IDF announced that the IDF is coordinating actively with aid agencies the vaccination of over 1 million children in Gaza with the anti-polio vaccine. Previously I had reported that the vaccine had already arrived in Gaza. It looks like I was wrong. The vaccine sufficient for inoculating these children with the two doses is supposed to arrive in two weeks.
Politics/Protests
Today, our eloquent “leader of the opposition”, Yair Lapid said this in a statement to one of the main Israeli TV stations:
If Netanyahu is so convinced of his negotiating capabilities, he should travel to Egypt and sit there himself until a deal is reached. This is what a responsible prime minister should do when the lives of his citizens are important to him. The only reason he doesn’t do this is because he no longer has a soul.
I am not sure who is worse, him or the Prime Minister.
Hamas has issued a call for mass protests throughout Judea/Samaria (West Bank). Friday is generally the day for such protests since this is the day when many observant moslems visit their local mosque from where they hear impassioned sermons from the local Imams. Protestors are being urged to storm the Temple Mount and lock themselves inside the Al-Aqsa Mosque.
And today there were violent demonstrations in Jerusalem led by the ultra-orthodox in opposition to the court dictating requirement to start drafting them into the IDF. You can see them here.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Egypt today informed US officials that Yahya Sinwar is now demanding, as part of a hostage/ceasefire deal, that Israel guarantee his safety. See here.
The “deal” seems to be the main focus of the Biden Administration and others at the moment. While publicly the US Administration claims that the ball is in the “Hamas” court, all the pressure seems to be on the Israeli government. Opinions here in Israel are split along multiple lines. At one extreme we have an opinion that says cut any deal, even if that leaves Hamas in power, in order to get as many hostages back as possible. At the other extreme are those that argue many IDF soldiers have died and been seriously injured that their efforts would go to waste if Hamas returns to power. Therefore, we should not agree to anything that leaves Hamas in power and enables them to re-arm. Those advocating the former insist that the IDF upper echelon supports their position, although there is nothing said publicly. In the meantime, Prime Minister Netanyahu has outlined clear objectives and red lines for the government, which will be hard for Sinwar to accept. And right now he is the decision maker. My personal opinion lies more with the current government position, although I bitterly dislike this government and intend to participate in demonstrations that will force new elections, once this recess is over. Right now all you hear and see are the families of hostages that are demanding a deal at any cost. They demonstrate each night, block the freeways, light fires in the roads and do whatever they can to try and gain the attention/sympathy of the society. But, there are also hostage families that are demanding that none of the fighting and consequent losses to have been done in vain. They met yesterday with the Prime Minister to insist that any deal must block Hamas from returning to power and re-assembling an army.
Iran has made clear its strategy, and even has a date. They have a plan that will, in their minds, bring about the destruction of the State of Israel by 2040. Their plans include a war of attrition along all of Israel’s borders that will bring about ongoing attacks at our population at a slow but steady rate. They have been very clear in this strategy and do not hide it as they think that there is nothing that can thwart it. To leave Hamas in power without the means to prevent it from reassembling its arms and army will be an incredible waste of time, resources and public welfare. Our economy is suffering, many IDF soldiers have been wounded and many have left families behind for extended periods of time in order to fight. All this will be squandered if we cave in now. The opposition parties are demanding a capitulation so they can bring about early elections and they can come in “to fix everything and save the day”. But all this rhetoric only serves their interests and not those of the country. Our citizens along the Gaza border and the Lebanese border need to return to their homes with some level of security. And the policies of the US Administration, as well as the opposition leaders, preclude that because it does not concern them. At this point we must finish the job in Gaza, by standing on our gains, continue destroying Hamas military infrastructure, killing their combatants, assassinating their leaders and building a framework that allows us to quickly act on future intelligence as terrorist entities try to rebuild.
And in the north I see no alternative other than a war. Each day Hezbollah increases the number of rockets and drones they send into our land. Israel has no dispute with Lebanon - not territorial, not human rights, nothing. Yet, immediately on October 8, rockets were launched from Lebanon that caused the country to evacuate the northern part of the country. In essence, because so much land is blocked from being used, our borders have effectively shrunk. This cannot continue. And now with the population evacuated from the north, it is probably the right time to deal with the Lebanese threat. There the end game is clearer. Military leaders here have talked about clearing the area from the Israeli border to the Litani River. Then station elements of the IDF in the area to defend the area. In this scenario, Israel is out of rocket range of Hezbollah although missiles can still be fired from deeper inside Lebanon. But then the IDF will have the time and ability to put up a proper aerial defense. From what I have read, in this scenario Israel makes no territorial claims to the area north of the border, but insists that it will not relinquish the territory until there is a proper government in Beirut that can enforce laws and that there is a formal Peace Treaty between the two countries. Sounds simple, but nothing ever is. This is my view, not official Israeli Policy.
While, I believe that mistakes were made during the conduct of The War, I am not privy to all the pressures from the USA that came into play so it is hard for me to judge the government. Certainly entering Rafah much earlier would have been smarter and stalling operations for two months in March and April served no one’s interests. But the Biden Administration and all of the Pentagon insisted that the IDF could not enter Rafah without massive civilian casualties. And all the European Government parroted this nonsense. When the IDF finally entered, they proved how ridiculous the US position was. Essentially, not a single civilian has died during fighting in Rafah as all were evacuated. And for the most part all the casualties you hear and read about today are combatants. There are very, very few civilians remaining outside the humanitarian zones. So when you hear Hamas announce casualty figures, that Israel bombed a school, etc. you can bet that the school only contained Hamas combatants and all the casualties they are reporting (or nearly all) are combatants, not civilians. This is because there is no school in session now, these schools are being used by Hamas to store weapons, fire rockets and coordinate attacks on the IDF. And these schools are outside the humanitarian zone. Again… these are my opinions.
And the Prime Minister knows that if the evacuation of Rafah and Netzarim are “temporary”, then should the IDF need to re-enter these strategic areas, the International Pressure will be enormous. It would take some catastrophic event like a repeat of October 7, for Israel to secure the justification for moving troops back in to Gaza.
And, if you were a wealthy Gulf Country being asked to contribute financially to the restoration of Gaza, wouldn’t you think three times about doing so, knowing that nothing has changed in the fundamentals. That leaving Hamas in power will only invite a repeat of what just happened and will wipe out all the rebuilding that will go on? It serves everyone’ interests - Aid Organizations, Donor Countries, the Gazan Residents, Israel, Egypt, etc. - to prevent Hamas from resuming control of Gaza. And the only way that can happen is if the IDF continues its work until it is complete.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
In this report authored by Former Ambassador to the US, Michael Oren, he presents a sound analysis on the forces in play regarding the current hostage/ceasefire negotiations. I thought that this quote “nails it”:
It’s important to note that both the Iranian mullah regime and Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah have repeatedly said they would be willing to agree to a cease-fire if Sinwar does. This stance gives the Hamas leader enormous leverage to stay away from the negotiating table and reject any Israeli offer. Thus, the regional war that Sinwar so desires becomes almost inevitable.
This article provides some insight into the current situation in Lebanon, even before a war breaks out. Not very pretty.
Please find the time to read this short article. It is a summary of an extensive interview by an Israeli English paper with one of the founders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp on the Iranian strengths and weaknesses. It confirms what many of us have realized. That is the IRGC and Iranian Army are totally focussed on offensive weapons capabilities and have extremely poor ability to thwart attacks on its own soil.