Today’s Image
I am beginning to think that perhaps we have more in common with our neighbors than I thought. Of course, the big news today is the IDF preemptive attack on Hezbollah positions in Lebanon and Hezbollah’s launch of more than 300 rockets into Israel as its “retaliation” for the assassination of Fuad Shukr. Israel reported that the main structure that was damaged as a result of the attack was a chicken coop, which are quite large here perhaps housing 1-3,000 chickens. As a results of Hezbollah boasting about their attack, Arab twitter accounts across the entire Middle East lit up filled with sarcasm regarding the big Hezbollah attack. I took the liberty of plagiarizing this photo which was obviously “Photoshopped” showing dead roosters in combat gear. I couldn’t stop laughing. Here are a few of the twitter posts and you can see others for yourself - dancing chickens, Nasrallah made to look like Colonel Sanders of KFC, and more… enjoy:
Here you can see a video of firefighters extinguishing the fire at the chicken coop and the combat chickens. The Arabic title says “Hezbollah - the killer of chickens and chicks”
Here is a video (with music accompaniament) produced by Hezbollah identifying the IDF bases it targeted. Clearly it was produced before early this morning as I do not believe that any of the bases identified were actually hit. Another production coming to you from Hezbollywood.
Gaza Rockets
One long range rocket was fired from Gaza targeting Tel Aviv this evening. It misfired and landed in an open field. I guess that Hamas thought it could succeed where Hezbollah failed.
Casualties
The IDF announced the death of Sgt. David Moshe Ben Shitrit - 21 (Z’’L). He was on board one of Israel’s large missile boats when it was hit by shrapnel falling from an Hezbollah launched drone that was destroyed over the water in northern Israel. And this morning Sgt. Amit Tsadikov - 20 (Z’’L) died during close combat fighting in Rafah.
Gaza Operations
The IDF issued instructions, requesting those few civilians left in central Gaza’s Deir al-Blah to evacuate. As I mentioned in yesterday’s post, this is one of two areas that have been largely untouched so far by the IDF. I do not know yet if this foretells of a major operation there or not.
An article in The New York Times reports that the USA is providing a “massive” amount of resources to help search for Yahya Sinwar, who is still hiding deep in a tunnel surrounded by hostages in Gaza. The article implies that the cooperation is “very lopsided” with Israel not giving much in return. It is not at all certain, what Israel should be providing in return. It appears that the USA expects Israel, in return, to focus on the US hostages. Personally, I think that the IDF knows where this blood thirsty terrorist is but can’t conduct an operation as he is surrounded by the hostages. And I am not sure what the USA expects. We can’t permit US troops to go in. Can you imagine what it would look like if any US troops were killed on the ground in Gaza??? And, if the IDF knew where and how to extract any hostages without getting them killed in the process, they would. If you can’t get through the NYT paywall, you can read a summary of the article here.
Lebanon Operations
The Iron Dome aerial defense system was very busy early this morning intercepting many of the hundreds of rockets fired by Hezbollah. These images were taken using an high speed camera with optical zoom. They are of an Iron Dome surface to air missile taking out Hezbollah kamikaze drones in mid air. You can see the heavy shrapnel that breaks apart on impact. That shrapnel can be very deadly. Amazing photography (not mine) and an amazing piece of defense technology. Now on to the news… And here you can see Iron Dome in action this morning, from a distance, taking out rockets.
Early this morning, about 05:00 the IDF launched more than 100 fighter jets into the skies of Lebanon in order to destroy as many of the rocket launching sites they could. This preemptive operation was approved after IDF Intelligence spotted Hezbollah moving many rocket firing systems into position. Based on this on prior reports coming in, it was determined that Hezbollah planned on launching its well publicized attack in retaliation for the assassination of Fuad Shukr in Beirut. The US CENTCOM forces assisted in reconnaissance prior to the military operations, but the US Army issued a statement saying it had nothing to do with any strike on any forces in the area. In this preemptive strike, the IDF targeted more than 100 launch sites capable of launching an estimated 1,000 rockets or drones. The IDF successfully destroyed most of the hundreds of kamikaze drones that were going to be launched as a part of the strike before they could lift off the ground. All, that is 100%, of the drones which survived the preemptive attack were neutralized by Iron Dome (see photos above for examples). Moreover, the IDF claims to have destroyed rocket launchers numbering in the thousands, if you count by the number of tubes per launcher. Some launchers can put up to 40-60 rockets into the air at one time. Hezbollah announced that during the early morning IDF operation, two of its operatives were killed, Hamza Zara and Khacher Sweid. Their roles in Hezbollah were not disclosed. The IDF insists that six Hezbollah operatives were killed during the morning preemptive attack. I recommend you watch the video on this page of IDF released footage from the strike.
As announced by Hezbollah, and inferred prior to the attack by the IDF, the main target of the attack was supposed to be a large IDF base in a place called Glilot. This base, which borders on the northern part of Tel Aviv sandwiched between Herzliya and Tel Aviv. It houses the staff serving in the intelligence branches of the IDF. Not a single rocket came close. The IDF insists that despite all the pronouncements coming from Nasrallah and Hezbollah, not a single IDF base in the country was hit. Hezbollah said that it launched more than 320 rockets and several drones in the attack. The IDF counted 210 rockets and 20 drones. The rockets were aimed at northern Israel as they have ranges of only 20-30 km. The drones were intended to attack IDF bases.
When the IDF launched its early morning attack, the civilian airport was given advanced notice and all departing flights were indefinitely delayed. All inbound traffic was rerouted to our international airport in the south, Ramon Airport, near Eilat. The IDF Home Front Command announced that there were to be no events or gatherings involving more than 20 people. Schools and universities are still in recess, luckily. Later in the morning all the restrictions were lifted and arrivals/departures from the airport resumed.
Nasrallah, in his speech he delivered this evening, said that Hezbollah intended to launch several hundred Katyusha rockets (very short range) in order to keep Iron Dome busy while the attack drones slipped through the defensive systems and made their way to Glillot. This did not happen, probably since many of the launch sites were destroyed in advance of the launch of the operation. Nasrallah also said that they delayed the retaliation for some time in order to keep Israel “on edge” and to wait and see how the hostage/ceasefire negotiations progressed. Finally, he said that the retaliatory attack happened on the Islamic Shiite Holiday of Arbaeen, a solemn holiday in the Shi’ite calendar commemorating the martyrdom of Hussain ibn Ali, the third Shia imam.
Besides the chicken coop in the north, the only damage reported from the Hezbollah attack today was a rocket which directly struck a home in the northern city of Acre. In response to the sirens, the family hid in a small closet. It probably saved their lives as the rocket struck their kitchen, living room and a bedroom, but not the closet. Their home was built before the bomb shelter law was passed. They should have dashed for a nearby bomb shelter, but they said that they did not have time. Luckily, there were no injuries, but a lot of damage.
A bit more than 20 years ago, Israel passed a law requiring that on all new construction there must be at least one room designated as a “Mamad” or internal bomb shelter. My apartment in Tel Aviv has one. The walls to the room are solid concrete not Gevas (Sheetrock to you Americans). There are special steel doors which can slide over the window to prevent shrapnel from hitting the glass. With a special door in place the room can be air sealed to prevent a poison gas attack or bio attack. The room has a special air filtration system as well.
According to the US and Western European diplomats, both Israel and Hezbollah exchanged messages between each other through third party intermediaries that no further escalation is foreseen now in an effort to de-escalate.
But, the leaders of all the opposition parties in Israel announced, very early this morning, their full hearted supported for the preemptive IDF operation conducted against Hezbollah forces at 05:00. Some remarked that it was “too little, too late”. The mayors of the towns in the north are livid and expect more to be done to actively push Hezbollah back from the border. They announced that they would no longer talk with the government. Prime Minister Netanyahu has announced that this is not the end of the story, but is a major step in returning normalcy to Israel’s norther border. The reality of the situation is that Israel can no longer tolerate Hezbollah on its border in Lebanon. Even if they were to declare a ceasefire due to some agreement that might be reached over Gaza, Israel can no longer permit such a paramilitary force on its border. To remind my readers, there is no territorial dispute, no “occupation”, no basis for dispute between Lebanon and Israel. Yet, Hezbollah attacked, unprovoked, on October 8, 2023 and since then launched thousands of rockets onto our communities in the north, making them uninhabitable. There is nothing to stop them from turning on their switch again in the future. Hence, Israel cannot tolerate them on our border and there is widespread agreement across all political parties here that Hezbollah must be pushed back north of the Litani River, about 15-20 km north of the Lebanese border. This article describes the view from the average Lebanese civilian side of what transpired today.
In fact, there is a legal precedent for this. In the aftermath of the Second Lebanese War (as we call it in Israel) in 2006, there was a Security Council Resolution 1701 passed that called for Hezbollah to retreat to the Litani River and its forces in the south to be replaced by the regular Lebanese Army. It was agreed to by all parties, but ignored by Hezbollah and Lebanon.
Along these lines, today, Samy Gemayel called for the application of UN Resolution 1559 throughout Lebanon. Gemayel is the leader of the Christian opposition party in the Lebanese government. That UN Resolution was passed in response to the Syrian invasion and occupation of Lebanon. It was focussed on curbing the growth of Hezbollah as a paramilitary organization outside the control of the Lebanese government and a challenge to the sovereignty of the country. Israel had removed its forces from all of Lebanon in 2000, to the UN recognized borders between the two countries. And this afternoon, the Lebanese government seems to have woken up from a long sleep… The acting Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati met with members of his cabinet this afternoon to try and do “what is what is required is first to stop the Israeli aggression, and then to implement Resolution 1701”. Of course, nothing will come from this, but I guess they need to meet over something… You can read more here.
Hamas and the Houthis praised the “glorious and victorious” strike against the Zionist entity. Sinwar is no doubt praying that the intensity of the fighting between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies. The Houthis have renewed their threat to take revenge for Israel’s destruction of their port at al-Hodeidah. The BBC reports that they expect the Houthis to launch some form of attack soon. So far, nothing from Iran. Nothing except a statement issued late last night before the scheduled Hezbollah attack by Major General Hossein Salami, commander in chief of the Islamic Revolution Guard Corps (IRGC). In the statement he reiterated his pledge to retaliate against Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh.
Ultimately, here in Israel the feeling is that through the preemptive operation conducted this morning, the IDF averted the likely possibility of an all out war. Had Hezbollah launched hundreds of kamikaze drones and thousands of rockets into Israel it would have been an escalation requiring something very serious from Israel, including the possibility of a ground incursion. Here is an excellent view on this subject.
Yemen Operations
It has been 38 days since the IDF struck Yemen’s port of Al-Hodeidah, and without any missiles fired from Yemen towards Israel.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq
In a meeting with USA Chief of Staff General Charles Brown, in Cairo, Egypt’s President for Life Abdel Fatah al Sisi warned against any further escalation of hostilities in the region. Talks are scheduled to resume tomorrow regarding the hostage/ceasefire deal, but don’t hold your breath…
Aid
Earlier today, while all the action was in the northern part of the country, COGAT (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories) dispatched refrigeration equipment with necessary generators along with 25,100 vials of polio vaccine to aid organizations inside Gaza. Everything was transported by 5 trucks through the Kerem Shalom Crossing in the south. On arrival the equipment and vaccine was transferred to the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF) based on prior understandings. More than 90% of Gaza’s population was inoculated against polio in the first quarter of 2024, during The War. But there have been births since then and perhaps this is just a precautionary measure.
COGAT reports that 53 aid trucks entered Gaza today and unloaded their cargo. About 420 trucks worth of aid is sitting in the staging areas of Gaza waiting to be distributed.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Today, Egypt reiterated its demand that Israel relinquish control of the border crossing at Rafah as part of any deal.
The Israeli negotiating team returned from Cairo today reporting that some progress had been made, without being specific.
Today, in rather bizarre/unusual action, National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s far-right Otzma Yehudit party took out a paid ad in the national newspapers accusing Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar of leading the negotiations into another disaster. I particularly like Opposition Leader Yair Lapid’s response who said:
only an unstable clown like Ben Gvir is capable — in the middle of a war, while the residents of the north are in shelters and soldiers are being killed — of publishing a paid ad against the head of the Shin Bet, a patriot and a real fighter the likes of which Ben Gvir was not and never will be.
International
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Charles Q. Brown, Jr. arrived in Israel this evening after his visit in Egypt. He is scheduled to meet with Israel’s Chief of Staff later tonight at IDF headquarters in Tel Aviv.
Defence Minister Yoav Gallant spoke with his counterpart in the UK Secretary of State for Defence John Healey this morning, after the preemptive attack. According to press reports they discussed how to contain hostilities in the aftermath. Early this morning, before the launch of the preemptive attack, Gallant phoned US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to give him advanced notice of the operation. You can read more here.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is an excellent interview with Dr. Dan Sagir, from the faculty of The Hebrew University of Jerusalem and expert on Iran/Israel nuclear programs.
And I recommend you read this interview with author Ilan Evyatar whose book “Target Tehran” provides intimated details on Mossad operations and capabilities inside Iran. Both this and the previous article suggest that Iran is not so formidable as people might think. This is part of a new path of thinking in Israel.
And something a bit outside the local news, here is a good analysis of the state of affairs in Syria. The government there is probably the largest producer and distributor of illegals drugs, such as Captagon. Gulf countries have warmed up to Syria because they wish to thwart the widespread smuggling of drugs into their countries. But this author explains why all this is a failed policy.