Today’s Image
The streets of Jerusalem were lined with Jerusalemites holding Israeli flags, standing silently as the procession of family members of Hersh Goldberg-Polin (Z’’L) went from their home in southern Jerusalem (nor far from us) to the western part of the city where the main cemetery resides.
Sorry, for this digression
Those of you following me for some time know that I occasionally stop to insert my own opinion/analysis on a particularly relevant topic of the time. Well, I have previously spoken about the various trade offs regarding the Philadelphi Corridor but never put it in the context of its importance, or lack thereof, with respect to recovering the hostages. So perhaps it is time for me to say something about this since this is the main issue of the day here in Israel…
While the actual current terms of the proposed hostage/ceasefire deal is tightly under wraps, enough has been leaked that most people know the basics. I have previously provided a high level view of this in other posts. The main issue being hotly contested at the moment is the border between Egypt and Gaza. Back before Hamas violently killed members of Fatah and took over Gaza, Egypt was as fed up as Israel regarding the smuggling taking place across the border and took deliberate actions to stop it. At one point they flooded a few tunnels crossing the border with sewage. But then the money started pouring into Gaza from the oil rich kingdom of Qatar that supports the Moslem Brotherhood, often with the knowledge/blessings of Israel. This money went directly to Hamas who used it to build up its military operations and pay its growing army. The money was also used to buy/smuggle weapons across the Egyptian border. But there was so much money being exchanged that the Egyptians started demanding bribes or percentages of the smuggling operation. If it didn’t go directly into the Egyptian government coffers, it went into the pockets of their military officers and leaders of several Bedouin tribes in the Sinai, who facilitated the smuggling operations. So Egypt became a collaborator with Hamas in building up its tunnel infrastructure and military capabilities. No one talks about this because no one wants to offend Egypt. But it’s all true. So what was once a trickle became a flood of weapons. It is not an exaggeration to say that the IDF has found arms hidden in EACH AND EVERY home in Gaza. Under cribs, inside hospitals, hidden in pillows, hidden in UNRWA marked bags, etc., etc. Before Israel’s disengagement from Gaza in 2005 by the orders of Prime Minister Arik Sharon, Israel regularly patrolled the Philadelphi corridor and its corp of engineers were regularly searching for and destroying tunnels used in smuggling.
It is through these tunnels that Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad received all its weapons and tools for building out its military infrastructure, with the aid of Iran and Hezbollah, i.e. the “axis of resistance”. If there are no controls or objective inspections at this border it would take Hamas a year or two to rebuild, then relaunch another attack on Israel as they said they would do. These are not empty threats. We have learned the hard way that when our enemies say they will attack us, we believe them. Since we cannot trust Egypt anymore managing this border and it has been proven that the UN has been complicit with Hamas, there is really no party that Israel can trust to manage this other than itself. The last thing we want are US troops here trying to mitigate a situation they can’t possibly handle. So without controlling this border crossing, it is clear that Hamas can easily rebuild itself in a few years to threaten us once again. And that is just not acceptable.
According to the current terms of the agreement being circulated, the IDF will evacuate completely, not just to isolated areas, but ALL of Gaza during the first six weeks. At the end of that period, the IDF can go back in and resume its operations. At least that is what appears to be written into the document. But, many people here remember Arik Sharon’s promise when he unilaterally evacuated Gaza in 2005. He said that if they send over a rocket we will send the IDF back in. We all know that this did not happen because of huge international pressure blocking Israel’s actions as well as the inherent risks of high IDF casualties. So while the IDF senior commanders may be totally correct in saying that “we know how to go back in if we need to”, they are only looking at this from a military perspective. Without cause, the international pressure and isolation placed on Israel should it send the IDF back in will be enormous. Moreover, the Israeli public could easily become complacent and forget the importance of eliminating Hamas as well. In 2005, Benjamin Netanyahu resigned from the government in protest of the withdrawal demanded by Sharon. He was Finance Minister at the time. So more than anyone he remembers. So, he and the government are digging in their heels on this issue. In part this is also because of the lack of trust that Israel would have on any promises that the US or European powers might make that they won’t stand in Israel’s way. This is because promises like these have been broken before.
So, this, explains the position of the government.
On the other side of the coin is the unwritten understanding between the IDF and the families which send their sons and daughters to serve. That '“understanding” is that the IDF will do whatever it takes to recover its soldiers if captured. Many cite various passages in the Talmud and opinions from Rabbis of the importance of this pact between parts of society. So leaving behind our hostages is “anathema” to some of the fundamental fabric that holds Israeli society together. The main claim of the hostage families is that this government is breaking this pledge and it can rip apart Israeli society. All this is true. And Israeli mothers may think again when their sons and daughters might choose to go serve in combat roles in the IDF. It is for this reason, I believe, that a large number of protestors are out in the streets these days. They do not trust this government and they insist that this underlying thread which binds society together is being broken. And many believe that it is being broken because of the political interests of the Prime Minister, who many do not trust.
When asked how they can take this position knowing that Hamas, under the current proposed agreement, can quickly resume power and rebuild the protest leaders respond that “we can always go back in to fight Hamas”. But on this they are wrong. In order to get collective agreement within the Israeli population to put at risk the lives of our soldiers in Gaza there needs to be some pretext and major event to justify it. October 7 was such an event “on steroids”. Once the IDF is out of Gaza, the consensus on this issue in Israel may break. And with the risk that Hamas can return to govern and rebuild, how can the residents of the communities surrounding Gaza return thinking that they are safe??
So this is our current dilemma. One view is - stick to our position on Philadelphi Corridor risking that even with more military pressure Hamas may never agree to give the hostages back. Or, agree to the current proposal, get our hostages back and evacuate Gaza knowing that this will enable Hamas to re-emerge, stay in power and rebuild its military infrastructure. Sounds like a decision for a very wise man, perhaps Shlomo Hamelech (King Solomon)…
Gaza Rockets
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel over the last 3 days.
Casualties
There were no casualties reported in the past 24 hours.
Gaza Operations
This evening a spokesperson for Hamas announced that they have changed their policies regarding the hostages. According to him, as stated on Monday:
The instructions for dealing with the hostages will be updated when the IDF approaches the scene… Let it be clear to everyone that, following the incident in Nuseirat, new instructions have been issued to the Mujahideen tasked with guarding the prisoners. These instructions outline how to handle the situation if the occupation army approaches the location where the prisoners are being held.
The Nuseirat incident referred to was the heroic rescue of four hostages on June 8 by IDF special forces. Initially, Hamas tried to claim that the six hostages recovered on Saturday were killed by friendly fire. But all were shot in the backs of their heads, so that lie becomes difficult to defend. So now they basically admitted that they killed the hostages and that this is their new policy. No doubt, the intent is to enable the demonstrators to focus their anger on the government. They are deliberately pouring gasoline on the demonstrations here in Israel trying to focus them against Netanyahu and the deal. You can read more here.
Lebanon Operations
Late this evening Israeli fighter jets struck more than 10 sites from where rockets have been launched at Israel. This evening Hezbollah launched a barrage of 30 rockets. into the Western Galilee. No damage or injuries reported. Earlier this afternoon an Israeli drone struck a building used by Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. And this morning Israeli fighter jets struck facilities in five locations in souther Lebanon.
In this Associated Press report, Lebanese civilians in Beirut describe their backup plan should war break out with Israel. Ironically, many are planning to move temporarily to Syria. What a crazy part of the world we live in, huh? You can read the report here.
Yemen Operations
The Houthis struck two merchant ships in the Red Sea today. The US CENTCOM reported that two missiles struck a Panama flagged oil tanker Blue Lagoon. A third missile exploded near the ship. Damage is minimal and the tanker is moving on to its destination. Meanwhile the Greek flagged oil tanker Sounion continues to burn.
It has been 48 days since the IDF struck Yemen’s port of Al-Hodeidah, and without any missiles fired from Yemen towards Israel.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq
This analysis by a military correspondent I hold with high respect, Yonah Jeremy Bob, of The Jerusalem Post describes the thinking that went on in Tehran in determining how and when to respond to Israel’s assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. It is very clear from his view that deterrence works. I might add on addendum from his report. In April, in response to Iran’s launch of more than 300 missiles and drones, Israel struck a sophisticated Russian SAM (Surface to Air Missile) air defence battery in the heart of a large IRGC base. This battery is an S-300 system. It is not Russia’s most advanced system. That would be an S-400. It took Iran years to convince the Russians to sell them the S-300s. And Russia is not inclined to provide them more since they need them in their war with Ukraine. Russia had S-400s in Syria that were manned by Russia. But Russia pulled them out so they could redeploy near Ukraine. The bottom line is that Iran is very vulnerable to a repeat attack like that of April 19. The IDF, in seeing how easy that operation was, is starting to re-think its strategy regarding dealing with the “axis of resistance”.
IDF - General
The Communications Ministry has secured dozens of Starlink Satellite Communications Systems so municipalities in the northern part of the country can maintain communications in the event that war breaks out in the north with Hezbollah and cell towers get hit. Apparently many more systems are on order.
There was a short ceremony in Gaza today as Brigadier General Barak Hiram took over command of the southern IDF battalion. He assumes this role after Brig. General Dan Goldfus received a promotion and a transfer to a senior commander position in the north. I am a big fan of Goldfus.
In my post Saturday evening I described the two terror attacks in Judea/Samaria (West Bank). In that report I mentioned that they IDF suspected that there was a third vehicle that was intended to be a part of this coordinated attack. Well, this afternoon police found an abandoned car near an industrial park at the very northern part of Jerusalem. It was pulled over to the side of the road, abandoned, with two large gas canisters hooked up to a remote activation system. It took some time but IDF bomb sappers were able to disconnect the ignition system. You can read more here.
Aid
Completing the first day of Polio vaccination delivery, more than 80,000 children were inoculated in Gaza so far.
COGAT reports that 208 trucks carrying humanitarian aid entered Gaza yesterday.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Today, Jerusalem buried one of its sons, Hersh Goldberg-Polin. From his home in the southern Jerusalem neighborhood of Baka, the streets were lined with mourners each holding an Israeli flag, all the way to the cemetery, about 3 ½ km in all. It was a large procession and mobbed with attendees. You can see a video of the funeral here. President Isaac Herzog attended and made these comments:
Beloved Hersh, with a torn and broken heart, I stand here today as the president of the State of Israel, bidding you farewell and asking for your forgiveness, from you, and from Carmel, from Eden, from Almog, from Alex, and Ori, and from all your loved ones. I apologize on behalf of the State of Israel, that we failed to protect you in the terrible disaster of October 7, that we failed to bring you home safely,” he says, recalling how on the Jewish fast day of Tisha B’Av he and the Goldberg-Polins “prayed at the President’s Residence for your return, together with all the hostages. And now, our heart, already broken, is shattered into pieces. Now – the State of Israel has an urgent and immediate task,” he continues, asserting that “decision-makers must do everything possible, with determination and courage, to save those who can still be saved” — a mission which he insists “is not a political goal, and it must not become a political dispute. Rather, it is a supreme moral, Jewish, and human duty of the State of Israel to its citizens” and “we did not fulfill this duty. And now – we have a sacred and shared obligation, to stand up and bring them all back to their homeland. For the spirit, resilience, and unity of Israel. Of course, we do not forget for a moment our obligation to hold accountable the despicable murderers who butchered you – Hersh – your friends, our sisters, and our brothers. Here too, the mission is clear and binding: To continue fighting relentlessly against the murderous terrorist organization Hamas, which has once again proven that there is no end to its savagery and the crimes against humanity it is willing to commit.
In what is coming across as a set of confusing statements from the White House, President Biden was responding to questions as he went into a meeting of his security advisors regarding the current state of negotiations, he apparently was asked if Prime Minister Netanyahu was doing enough to get the hostage/ceasefire deal concluded. In a short retort, he replied “NO”. Members of the Israel government didn’t take the off the cuff comment too well. Later in the morning the White House clarified that it still holds Hamas primarily responsible for the hold up in the negotiations. Biden, Harris and the security staff met behind closed doors to discuss next steps. Word from the White House is suggesting that the Biden Administration is going to come up with a proposal of its own, asking changes from both sides. Rumors are that if it is not accepted by both sides, the White House will pull back from investing all of its time and political collateral in the endeavor. This is being called a “take it or leave it” deal offer. Later in the day, a statement was released from the White House saying:
President Biden expressed his devastation and outrage at the murder of the six hostages and reaffirmed the importance of holding Hamas’s leaders accountable.
Politics/Protests
The day of “shutting down the economy” came and passed. Major highways were blocked, but most people found a way to get about their business despite all the difficulties. In the morning a case was filed with the Israeli Labor Court by the State Prosecutor claiming that the national strike called by the Histadrut Labor Federation was illegal. It was a political strike and was not related to grievances in a collective labor dispute. The court ruled in favor of the plaintiffs and the Histadrut Labor Federation Chairman announced that he respected the decision of the Labor Court and ended the strike at 14:30 in the afternoon. This evening there will be major protests around the country.
This evening Prime Minister Netanyahu held a press conference. He took questions from the press, some of them hostile. But he focussed on message and made clear his positions and why. I will summarize tomorrow. During yesterday’s contentious Security Cabinet meeting, it was reported that the Prime Minister requested that the IDF prepare a plan that would extract a heavy and sharp price from Hamas in the next 3-4 days due to their execution of Israeli hostages.
Meanwhile of a non profit group called Gvura Forum held a counter protest accusing the organizers of today’s “shutting down the economy” of providing a prize for Hamas. This group consists of right of center families of fallen soldiers that fell in battle during the fighting in The War. The group holds a vigil outside the Knesset, Parliament building. While holding up posters showing the images of their fallen sons, the protesters demanded that the government not ignore the memories of their loved ones by capitulating the negotiations. They insist that the IDF continue fighting until Hamas is destroyed as a fighting organization. The demonstration numbered in the low hundreds.
As today is a day of civil disobedience it is only natural that the ultra-orthodox do their part. Today a few dozen held a demonstration outside the IDF’s draft office. It is expected that some of the drafted ultra-orthodox are scheduled to report later today.
International
Today the British Foreign Secretary David Lammy of the Labour Government announced that the UK will suspend some licenses for arms sales to Israel. Of the 350 licenses granted to UK firms to export to Israel, 30 licenses have been suspended. In his comments defending his decision made in the House of Commons, Lammy had this to say:
Facing a conflict such as this, it is this government’s legal duty to review Britain’s export licenses. This is not a blanket ban. This is not an arms embargo.
Tammy argued that some of the licenses could lead to them being used in violation of international humanitarian law. I sure hope that we remember this and reciprocate, in kind, when the UK needs to import arms from Israel.
In a conversation with Defense Minister Gallant early this morning, US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin was said to “passed along his deepest condolences to the families of all of the slain hostages and he expressed outrage at their vicious, illegal, and immoral execution at the hands of Hamas.” Austin also “affirmed that Hamas leaders must be held accountable for their crimes, and the pair reaffirmed their mutual commitment to swiftly reaching a ceasefire deal to secure the release of all of the hostages”.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Just as I was wrapping up my “digression” a friend sent me this article. Here is someone with a similar view to my own on our current “dilemma”.
Somehow The New York Times claims to have received copies of documents issued by Hamas commanders to its rank and file describing how to build and use the vast tunnel network it constructed. You can read it here.