Today’s Image
At tonight’s protests in Tel Aviv it was estimated that about 400,000 people were in attendance along with perhaps another 100,000 at other protests across the country. The protestors are pushing for a hostage/ceasefire deal…. The main problem is that Hamas is just increasing its demands making a deal near impossible…
Gaza Rockets
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel over the last 8 days.
Casualties
There were no casualties reported in the past 6 days.
Gaza Operations
As of Wednesday of this past week, the IDF paved a road along the Philadelphi Corridor showing its intention to remain there.
Today the IDF reported the successful assassination of two leading Palestinian Islamic Jihad Battalion Commanders, Abdallah Khatib and Hatem Abu Aljidian, in Deir al-Balah, one of the few remaining terrorist strongholds in Gaza. They, together with terrorists from both Hamas and PIJ were in an evacuated school. That school and another were hit by small ordinance missiles fired from drones. Prior to the operation both facilities were under surveillance to ensure that the actual buildings hit were without (or had minimal) civilians. You can read more here.
In an interview on Israel’s TV station 12 Nadav Argaman, former head of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), claims that Netanyahu’s recent press briefing/conference falsely claimed that the Philadelphi Corridor was critical to ensuring that arms smuggling to Gaza. He attacked the government, claiming that the purpose of this demand is to keep the coalition together. He insists that very little is smuggled inside the tunnels traversing the Egypt-Gaza border because Egypt flooded them with seawater. But that claim cannot be credible since the IDF is uncovering many tunnels crossing the border, none showing signs of seawater. His comments are summarized in English here. But, what Netanyahu did not explain was how stationing troops above ground, along the corridor will stop the underground smuggling. Argaman claims, and I have read this elsewhere, that most of the smuggling is happening above ground and through the Rafah border crossing. From my view, the best way to stop this is from the Egyptian Side with much better enforcement of inspections, by parties other than Egyptian officials that can be easily bribed, but by parties that can be trusted and not threatened by terrorists. Argaman’s comments may have validity but they are clearly politically motivated as are many of the statements from former senior IDF and Security officials.
Lebanon Operations
This morning a barrage of 5 rockets was launched at the northern Israeli city of Safed along with two more kamikaze drones. No damage or injuries. But then IDF fighter jets conducted strikes on the facilities responsible for launching the drones and rockets.
This afternoon two kamikaze drones launched by Hezbollah crashed inside Lebanon before entering Israeli airspace. It appears, but not confirmed, that this resulted from a disfunction of the drones. Earlier, Hezbollah launched a barrage of rockets that struck the largely evacuated settlement of Shlomi about 2 km south of the Lebanese border. There was damage to a home there, but no injuries as the residents were evacuated long ago. Some of the rockets caused wildfires to break out.
Yemen Operations
The Greek oil tanker Sounion is still on fire with little hope that anything can be done about it. The Iranian backed Houthis prevent any ships from nearing the tanker. CNN shows a recent report on their web site.
It has been 53 days since the IDF struck Yemen’s port of Al-Hodeidah, and without any missiles fired from Yemen towards Israel.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
President for Life Tayyip Erdogan of Turkiye issued a statement today saying that all Islamic countries should form an alliance against Israel in what he called “the growing threat of expansionism” from Israel. During an event at an Islamic School Association he responded to questions saying that “The only step that will stop Israeli arrogance, Israeli banditry, and Israeli state terrorism is the alliance of Islamic countries.”
In these two reports in The Jerusalem Post, Seth Franzman (a friend and sailing buddy), reports that Iran may be intentionally trying to block international airline carriers from resuming flights to/from Israel by its threats of attack and that using its Houthi proxies Iran is gaining a commanding position in controlling the seas in and around the Arabian Gulf.
IDF
As a result of the murder of the six hostages by Hamas, the IDF has announced the establishment of a new policy. After investigating the events pertaining to the execution and recovery of the hostages, the IDF learned much. As the number of operational tunnels have shrunk and the IDF capabilities in identifying, exploring and neutralizing the tunnels has increased, the possible locations of remaining hostages has reduced, making it easier for the IDF to identify potential hostage locations.
However, it is a mixed blessing. The fewer tunnels have also enabled Hamas to post lookouts at the entrances who notify terrorists down below of IDF troops operating nearby. It was scouts such as these that notified the Hamas terrorists underground of approaching IDF troops. Rather than risk that the hostages might be rescued, the Hamas terrorists now have instructions to kill to reduce the “risk” that the IDF recovers them alive. That new Hamas policy was instituted after the successful rescue of those four hostages back on June 8.
So the new policy, at least the elements being disclosed to the public, implies that IDF infantry will operate in areas with tunnels on the assumption that the hostages are being kept there. On an ongoing basis the IDF learns of locations with living hostages and there will be efforts to be extra careful when operating in such areas. My guess is that there is a lot more to it than this, but the IDF doesn’t want to “show its hand”.
Aid
Aid workers in Gaza have moved the Polio Vaccination campaign to the second stage, meaning that they are administering the second of two vaccines to the children in Gaza. Today 222 trucks transported aid into Gaza, leaving their cargo on the staging areas. About 440 trucks worth of aid have now accumulated inside Gaza in the staging areas waiting to be distributed.
Hostages/Ceasefire
While attending an event in London, US CIA Director William Burns, in replying to reporters questions, said that a more detailed ceasefire proposal is expected in the next several days from the mediators involved - Egypt, Qatar & USA. All the energy is being placed on just the first phase.
According to this report in The New York Times, Qatari sources are saying that Hamas has listed a whole new set of demands complicating any hostage/ceasefire deal. According to this report, Hamas is increasing the number of terrorists it is demanding to be released in the first phase of the agreement. This, while trying to reduce the number of hostages to be released. And Prime Minister Netanyahu has raised the issue of insisting on the IDF holding on to the Philadelphi Corridor during Phase 1. For those unable to get past the NYT paywall, here is a similar report in Axios.
Politics/Protests
During protests by Palestinians near the town of Beita (in Samaria or West Bank) a young woman, Aysenur Ezgi Eygi, carrying US citizenship and of Turkish origin was shot and killed. The IDF has launched an investigation to review what transpired and promised the Biden Administration a full account of what happened. The woman’s family is demanding that an international investigation be conducted. The US State Department issued this statement: “We are aware of the tragic death of an American citizen, Aysenur Eygi, today in the West Bank. We offer our deepest condolences to her family and loved ones. We are urgently gathering more information about the circumstances of her death, and will have more to say as we learn more. We have no higher priority than the safety and security of American citizens.” President for Life Tayyep Erdogan said "I condemn Israel's barbaric intervention against a civilian protest… Turkiye will continue to work on every platform to end Israel's occupation and genocide policy, which has been continuing for almost a year.” You can read more here.
This evening an estimated 3-400,000 people joined the protests in Tel Aviv demanding that a hostage/ceasefire deal be concluded now. This appears to be a sign that the protests have made a shift and are expanding in scope.
Results from a poll commissioned by Israeli TV channel 12 were released today. According to the poll, 60% of Israelis say that a hostage deal should take precedence over troops staying in the Philadelphi Corridor and 28% claiming that holding onto the territory was more important. When the respondents were asked if the government is doing everything it can to bring the hostages home, 61% said no, 34% yes. When asked about which national leader they trust most to lead the results came along the following lines:
Prime Minister Netanyahu vs. Opposition Leader Yair Lapid, 33% vs. 33%,
Prime Minister Netanyahu vs. National Unity leader Benny Gantz, 27% vs. 41%,
Prime Minister Netanyahu vs. former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, 29% vs. 44%.
When asked about who was most to blame for October 7 blame was placed in this order: 43% Prime Minister Netanyahu, 18% Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, 14% Shin Beet Chief Ronan Bar and only 6% Defense Minister Gallant. Finally when asked, 68% of those polled opposed the formal endorsement of Jewish prayer on the Temple Mount, in contradiction of National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir’s recent moves.
The Attorney General, Gali Baharav-Miara, informed the Prime Minister that the best way to deal with the cases at the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice is to appoint a fully independent commission of inquiry into events leading up to October 7, what happened on October 7 and subsequent conduct of the IDF. She is right!
International
A group called UK Lawyers for Israel issued a warning last month, August, to International Criminal Court Prosecutor Karim Khan regarding his demand for arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. In this report issued on their website, the Prosector breached the rules of the court for failing to update and correct information previously provided by the Prosector to the court. They also insist that the Prosecutor violated the British Bar’s Code of Conduct. Khan is a UK citizen of Pakistani origins. The organization has joined other legal organizations around the world issuing briefs to the ICC defending the Israeli leaders and accusing the Prosecutor of not following the internal procedures required by the ICC prior to issuing his warrants demand.
European Union Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell announced in a letter to the Israeli Foreign Affairs Ministry that he intends to visit the country on September 14 and 15. To put it mildly, this guy is really disliked and carries no respect from any party here in Israel. He was informed that he could not come those days and was welcome to come after the Jewish Holidays, which would be in the last week of October. Borrell is being replaced soon, thankfully.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
This report published in The Jerusalem Post provides many details about Yahya Sinwar’s brother, Muhammed, who according to the article is more dangerous than his older brother. It is assumed that he, Muhammed, has assumed oversight of Hamas’s military capabilities after the assassination of Muhammed Deif on July 13.
In an interview on Israel’s TV station 12 Nadav Argaman, former head of the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), claims that Netanyahu’s recent press briefing/conference falsely claimed that the Philadelphi Corridor was critical to ensuring that arms smuggling to Gaza. He attacked the government, claiming that the purpose of this demand is to keep the coalition together. He insists that very little is smuggled inside the tunnels traversing the Egypt-Gaza border because Egypt flooded them with seawater. But that claim cannot be credible since the IDF is uncovering many tunnels crossing the border, none showing signs of seawater. His comments are summarized in English here.
And here is an Op-Ed from Bret Stephens of The New York Times entitled “A Hostage Deal is a Poison Pill for Israel”.
And here is a rather sobering view on the situation with the hostage/ceasefire negotiations which seem endless, mostly with Hamas demands increasing by the day… Its title is telling - “Iran's Gaza War: Unfortunately, A Ceasefire Deal Will Not Bring the Hostages Back”