Today’s Image
This is a frame from a video shown yesterday across all the Israeli TV channels that was recorded by the IDF inside the tunnel where the six hostage bodies were recovered two weeks ago. After 11 months in captivity, the terrorists murdered them. You need to watch the video as posted on YouTube here. It is only 3 minutes long.
My View - Hostages & Negotiations
I am afraid that my view on this subject is going to come across as cold and callous, but it is time we all wake up and recognize the reality. We can no longer think that demonstrations in the streets are going to bring back the hostages. As far back as January 29, in one of my posts (at that time on Facebook) I wrote this:
This is the first principle of negotiation - Understand what are the goals of your opponent and if there is a way to mitigate them. Yahyah Sinwar has spent his entire life building up the armed forces of terrorists he now has at his disposal. He has done this out of the ideological perspective that kicking out the Jews was the first step to an Islamic Revival. You can read the Hamas Charter and it is all spelled out there. The aims of Hamas, as consistent with other elements of the Moslem Brotherhood, extend way beyond its claims on the Jews and Israel. So in their vision, liberating “Palestine” from the Jews and eradicating them is just the first step in a very long struggle. He and his co-leaders have invested billions of dollars in stolen money, taken from naive donor countries (or in the case of Qatar, not so naive) and invested in building a military force. He believed that by initiating the attack on October 7, it would cause Israel to invade and get strangled in the quagmire of the tunnel infrastructure in Gaza. So far this has not happened, but instead they have lost nearly ½ of their armed and trained personnel. There is no way that the IDF could leave Gaza with Hamas in charge. And there is no way that the Hamas leadership could give up the base of operations they established there. What are they going to to, pick up he army and move it to the French Riviera? Or Libya? Or Syria? Or Qatar? No way. In Gaza they have a willing base of people that they have raised from childhood to hate and glorify martyrdom. Where else are they going to have this? So, Sinwar is NOT going to agree to anything that does not leave him in control when the fighting stops. And there is no way that Israel could agree to leave him in control. So Sinwar is going to keep those hostages alive and close to him at all times since this is THE ONLY LEVERAGE he has. And he will hold on to it until the bitter end. This is not something the families of the hostages want to hear. Why would Sinwar give up the only leverage he has, if that means that ultimately he will be removed from power? It would be the end of his raison d’etre, reason for existence. The only possibility, and it is remote, is that by releasing many of the Palestinian terrorists in Israeli prisons the Hamas leadership gains, temporarily, the love and admiration of the Palestinian Arab street… for teaching the Zionists a lesson. But that will only get some of the hostages out.
The only change since I wrote that piece is that by now the IDF has eliminated about 75-80% of the Hamas fighting force. Hamas is busy recruiting, but the recruits are young 15-18 year olds that have no training or experience. They will become “cannon fodder”.
Back in December we got lucky. We had pushed hard on Hamas and we were able to get a deal that got about ½ of the hostages out of Gaza. We will need to get very lucky again. But luck is not a strategy. Sinwar looks at the demonstrations in the streets of Tel Aviv (I am sure he is able to watch Israeli TV.) and thinks that all he needs to do is wait as we will fight amongst ourselves. But, even if the demonstrators were to succeed in getting new elections (which is the main point of their protests at this point) any government would be in the same spot. The basic dynamics will not change and no Israeli leader could agree to anything close to Sinwar’s demands. The Western Press portray the demonstrators to be against Prime Minister Netanyahu, claiming that “he is not doing enough” and that he is the cause for not having a deal. But this is nonsense. Yes the families might say that. But most of them disliked the Prime Minister before October 7. And the opposition leaders who get up and speak at the events castigating the government for how they handled the negotiations are just playing politics, not caring how this is seen abroad.
Don’t get me wrong, I dislike this government too. Netanyahu has been in office way too long, enabling the two extremist parties to participate in the government was a mistake and there are too many inept people in positions of authority. But, no other government could have handled the negotiations much differently.
No one in the country, except for a few, push back on the families of the hostages. When I go to the gym I watch Israeli news, in Hebrew, while I work out. Last week on one of the major networks three individuals with loved ones in captivity went on and on and on and on and on and on and on for an hour on national TV. Between the screaming and the crying, it was like a nationally televised one hour therapy session. No one feels like they have the right to push back on the families, not even the Prime Minister who let the father of Ori Danino (Z’’L) rant on him without response. So we let them yell, block traffic during rush hour, scream on national TV, etc., etc. I am not saying that we, as a country should behave differently. But what I am saying is that NONE OF THIS WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE. And if anything it makes it more difficult to reach a deal as Sinwar sees this and thinks he can just wait it out.
So despite the best intentions of the Biden Administration, and to the current government (given its constraints) there is no deal on the horizon no matter how many meetings in Cairo or Doha are scheduled. Nothing will change until either Sinwar is removed from the scene or he somehow sees it in his interest to negotiate. Qatar and Egypt are worse than useless. All they do is pass messages and sometimes even get in the way of negotiations.
In the meantime, the situation on the ground in Gaza remains stagnant. As I have remarked in previous posts, there are two key neighborhoods in Gaza that have been largely left untouched by the IDF - Deir al-Balat and Nuseirat. It was in Nuseirat where those 4 hostages were rescued by Operation Arnon back in June. The main reason that the IDF does not move in force on these locations is because it is believed that this is where the hostages are being held and where most of the remaining Hamas terrorists sit. I have spoken with a couple soldiers that got leave from the front. They tell me that the terrorists, or at least some of them, in Nuseirat sit around the swimming pool relaxing because they know the IDF won’t enter. The IDF cannot enter as any living hostages there will be killed.
There is a growing set of voices insisting that something needs to change in the way we approach this situation. One of those voices is former Member of the Knesset Einat Wilf. Wilf was a member of the Labor Party in the Knesset and finds herself on the left of the political spectrum. So when she talks, many of the anti-government demonstrators might listen. Just today she started publicly writing and saying that “there is no deal”. You should watch this 6 minute video. Here is one small quote:
This breaks my heart. My country is being ripped apart as our people fight each other saying to take the deal or not. There is no deal to be taken, and if there was one, it is only the same demand Hamas made on October 8th. They want to go back to how things were on October 6th, and that is why they took the hostages, as an insurance policy, and to show the world that you can invade Israel and suffer no consequences.
And she is not the only one. Avigdor Lieberman stated that humanitarian aid should be halted to Gaza in light of the treatment of the hostages by the terrorists. Read more comments regarding the video from other political figures here.
And just today came this analysis of how Hamas continues to earn billions by extorting its own population in forcing them to pay for the aid being supplied by international organizations. They need a way to pay their army of terrorists and murderers. Some of the families bereaving from those killed on October 7 or after are appealing to the Supreme Court to stop humanitarian aid to Gaza. They are not likely to succeed, but this is becoming a perspective in Israel as one way to change the current dynamics that are leading no where.
Gaza Rockets
No rockets fired from Gaza landed in Israel in the past 2 days.
Casualties
Last night, Tuesday, two IDF soldiers died in a helicopter crash as it was landing near Rafiah in order to pick up an injured soldier. The two are Warrant Officer (res.) Daniel Alloush - 37 (Z’’L) and Warran. Officer (res.) Tom Ish-Shalom - 38 (Z’’L). There were several others seriously injured in the accident as well. And just as I was wrapping up this post, the IDF announced the killing of Staff Sgt. Geri Gideon Hanghal - 24 (Z’’L). He was killed when a Palestinian terrorist rammed his fuel tanker he was driving into an IDF check point near a bus stop. The terrorist, 59 year old Hail Dhailfallah was shot and killed.
Gaza Operations
This evening, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant went on Israeli TV to describe a document that IDF troops uncovered during on of their raids in Khan Younis some weeks ago. You should take the time to read about it here. As you might recall the IDF struck the residence of Rafah Salame, the Hamas Khan Yunis Brigade Commander, back on July 13 killing both him and Mohammed Deif. Gallant described in detail the contents of the document which is a letter written by Salame to Yahyah Sinwar and his brother Mohammed Sinwar. Its contents are amazing. First of all, bear in mind that this was written well before Salame’s death, probably in either May or late April, 2023. The essence of the letter is pleading with the Sinwar brothers to cut a deal with Israel as Hamas’s situation is nearly lost. So at that time Salem wrote that somewhere between 90-95% of their rockets were gone. As were 65-70% of their anti-tank missiles. He also wrote that 50% of the Hamas forces were killed and another 25% wounded to the point they could not fight. That left 25% who could still fight. If this is true, by now that number must be between 15-20% left to fight. He wrote that of the 25% left, units were falling apart. And the population doesn’t tolerate the Hamas fighters anymore. If the letter was dated, it was not disclosed by Gallant. Amazing….
The IDF remains active in the Tel Al Sultan neighborhood in Rafah. It was the main location of Hamas terrorists in Rafah. During the past 28 hours the IDF struck several Hamas commanders and the main commander of the Tel Al-Sultan Battalion, Mahmoud Hamdan, killing them by missiles fired from drones. That means that all the top commanders of that Battalion are dead and the IDF regards it as no longer a military force, albeit many fighters remain and are likely to merge with the remaining 2-4 Hamas battalions elsewhere in Gaza. You can read more here.
The IDF also reports attempts by Hamas to reform battalions in northern and central Gaza. One IDF division is now starting a new operation in central Gaza to deal with it.
Using drones, the IDF struck a former school in Nuseirat that was used by Hamas to plan and prosecute attacks. I believe that you will start hearing more and more about operations in Nuseirat and Deir al-Balah. It was reported that 14 people were killed in the drone strike. Arms were stored in the facility.
Lebanon Operations
This afternoon an anti-tank missile was fired by Hezbollah injuring an IDF soldier. This was accompanied by a barrage of 30 rockets. Altogether, more than 60 rockets were launched by Hezbollah today into Israel. There were no injuries from any of the strikes.
This morning IDF drones conducted strikes on two Hezbollah operatives in south Lebanon’s Mays al-Jabal area. One was killed and the other wounded. My guess is that we will hear more about the their identity in the coming days. And IDF fighter jets struck multiple rocket launching sites and other Hezbollah military facilities in southern Lebanon.
Earlier in the day IDF fighter jets struck several locations with Hezbollah rocket launchers, some poised to strike. Previously, today, Hezbollah launched 15 rockets into Israel. Yesterday they numbered more than 30. No injuries were incurred in either strike, but damage was done to several buildings.
Yesterday Hezbollah launched several kamikaze drones. None resulted in injuries.
Yemen Operations
The Greek oil tanker Sounion is still on fire.
It has been 57 days since the IDF struck Yemen’s port of Al-Hodeidah, and without any missiles fired from Yemen towards Israel.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
Today Iran conducted another ballistic missile test. As you might recall, on April 13th Iran launched over 300 airborne missiles and drones targeted at Israel. Israeli defensive systems with assistance from USA’s CENTCOM managed to eliminate all but 3. Most of the missiles either misfired on the launchpad or fell en route before reaching Israel. Apparently the failure of these systems sent a shock through the Iranian Military establishment.
Today in Iraq, the USA Diplomatic Services Compound in Baghdad was attacked. This is an early report without details.
The Biden Administration notified US Congress today that it intends to provide Egypt $1.3B in military aid. This is the first time since 2020 when US funding stopped due to human rights concerns. I guess withholding arms based on perceived human rights violations by the USA and the UK only applies to the Jewish State.
There was an “election” in Jordan yesterday for the purpose of electing representatives to their parliament. In Jordan there are two houses of “representatives”. One is the Senate with 65 members. All are appointed by the Hashemite Peacock Throne. The other house is called the House of Representatives. There are 130 elected members of that house. But most of the seats are reserved for specific ethnic and religious groups. Fifteen seats are reserved for women. Most seats are allocated for regions of the country, but for the first time 40 seats were set aside for political parties in the election. Of those seats set aside for real elections, 31 out of those 40 seats were won by the IAF, Islamic Action Front. They still can’t gather together a majority of votes out of the 130 seats, but they emerged as the largest independent party in the country. The IAF is affiliated with the Moslem Brotherhood and its success demonstrate the growth of this group in Jordan and probably where this is heading with time.
While we are on the subject of Jordan, Prime Minister Netanyahu visited areas of the border with Jordan, our longest border. This was in response to the terrorist attack two days ago killing three Israeli civilians by a Jordanian soldier turned terrorist. While there he announced that Israel will be working with the Jordanian Kingdom to tighten their mutual border. There is talk now of installing the same security fence infrastructure along this border that was constructed along the Egyptian border about 10 years ago to stop the smuggling of people, drugs and arms from Egypt into Israel.
Aid
As of yesterday more than 520,000 Gazan children have been fully vaccinated with the Polio vaccine. Efforts now are focused on the remaining children in northern Gaza. Yesterday, 176 aid trucks left their cargo on the Gaza staging areas. Only 125 trucks worth of aid were picked up for distribution by the aid organizations.
In Switzerland, the Swiss National Council passed a motion to halt funds sent to UNRWA citing its incitement to terror and glorification of violence. If they follow the path of the rest of the EU, they will restore the funding within two months after receiving pleas from the corrupt UN organiation.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Israel’s chief negotiator announced during recent meetings in the USA that Israel was prepared to provide safe passage to Sinwar in exchange for the hostages. This was said during an interview on Bloomberg network. I do not think Sinwar regards this with any value. You can read more here.
Today in Paris, families of the hostages met with Qatar’s Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani. They discussed the current state of negotiations, or lack thereof. According to those in attendance, al Thani said that the girls taken hostage remind him of his daughters. You can read more here.
Politics/Protests
Prime Minister Netanyahu has reformulated his War Cabinet. Previously it consisted of him, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Deputy Prime Minister Aryeh Deri, Strategic Affairs minister Ron Dermer, National Unity party leader Benny Gantz and Member of Knesset Gadi Eisenkot. But Gantz and Eisenkot left the government in June. The new War Cabinet consists of the same first four members along with Justice Minister Yariv Levin, Foreign Minister Israel Katz and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
International
On Thursday of last week, I reported the shooting death of a US citizen of Turkish extraction, 26 year old Aysenur Ezgi Eygi. The IDF completed its preliminary investigation into the incident concluding that the fire most likely came from a member of its troops present at the site of the violent demonstration. It believes that the lethal bullet had ricocheted off the ground in a tragic and improbable accident. Eygi’s family called this inquiry inadequate and demanded an independent US investigation. Hamid Ali, Eygi’s boyfriend, claims that her death was no accident. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Tuesday demanded an overhaul of Israeli military conduct in Judea/Samaria (West Bank).
The EU just signed a multi billion dollar agreement with Egypt. The funds flow to Egypt and in return Egypt is expected to stem the flow of refugees into the EU that are apparently flooding into southern Europe - Italy and Greece. Right now the worry is Sudanese refugees. But the real worry is future refugees from Gaza. In case you didn’t know there is a major civil war going on in Sudan with millions dying of starvation and caught in the crossfire. Your local news stations would only report on this story if Jews were the ones fighting on one side of the war. But since Jews cannot be blamed for this conflict, no one cares. Certainly, none of those students at the Ivy League schools care, do they? You can read more about this EU effort to stem refugee flow here.
UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that the renewal of those 30 export licenses he blocked can be reinstated if there is a ceasefire. I hope that we remember this when the UK gets involved in another war like Iraq or Afghanistan…
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is a rather sobering opinion on the possibilities of “Peace in Our Time” in Gaza from a former IDF General.
And here is a great article from Matti Friedman, former Middle East Correspondent for Associate Press. He writes about how the Western Press evolved in its coverage of Israel from reporting facts to reporting only what it wants to present.
And here is a great analysis of Egypt and how they are “two faced”. On one side they are fearful of the Muslim Brotherhood (and Hamas) but go out of their way to harm Israel in its fight with Hamas.