October 348, 2023, "The War"
October 348, 2023, "The War"
My 261st post on The War
Today’s Image
This is a pager. It has now become a weapon of mass destruction. Today 9 people were killed and 2,800 injured in Lebanon because they had one of these devices in their possession. More details below. For those of you too young to know what a pager is, check out this article.
Gaza Rockets
No rockets fired from Gaza landed in Israel in the past 4 days.
Casualties
No casualties, civilian or military, were reported resulting from The War in the past 7 days.
Gaza Operations
During operations in Gaza today the IDF eliminated the Palestinian Islamic Jihad’s commander, Ahmed Ayesh Salam al-Khashash, of its rocket manufacturing and distribution operation in Rafah. IDF troops on the ground directed the air attack that involved a single air fired missile on a building in the nearby area of Khan Yunis.
Lebanon Operations
The big news today is the exploding pagers in Lebanon. But first this item. Israel’s Shin Bet (something like FBI) uncovered an Hezbollah attempt to assassinate a former Israeli security official using a device that can be triggered remotely from a cell phone and connected to a Claymore-style anti personnel mine. The device also had a camera. They uncovered the device as the perpetrators were under surveillance for quite some time. You can learn more here. On that page is a video taken by The Times of Israel reporter who met with several English speaking IDF troops in Gaza in the 8119th Reserve Battalion. At 06:33 into the video the son of a close friend of mine is interviewed. He was born and raised in Palo Alto, served as a lone soldier and then returned from the USA to fight 3 times since the start of the war.
Back to the “big news”. Today the pagers which many of the Hezbollah operatives in Lebanon carry with them heated up, ignited and in some cases exploded while being carried by more than 2,800 people in Lebanon, all associated with Hezbollah in on way or another. No one outside of the Hezbollah’s support infrastructure has reason to carry one of these devices. So far no one has claimed credit for this widespread incident across all of Lebanon - Beirut, southern Lebanon, eastern Lebanon and even parts of Syria. As of the time I am writing this, 9 people were killed in Lebanon and another 7 in Syria as a result of the exploding pagers. Another 2,800 were hurt. It is not clear how many of those hurt are in serious condition. At least 14 have been wounded in Syria. Again, the only people carrying these devices were those associated with Hezbollah. Hezbollah announced that its chief, Hassan Nasrallah, was not harmed in the incident. Hezbollah announced that it holds Israel responsible for the nationwide explosions despite the fact that Israel has not made any claims of responsibility. Lebanon says it is preparing a complaint to the UN Security Council. but since no one is claiming credit, what do they hope to accomplish?? One of those injured was Iran’s Ambassador to Lebanon. I guess he is a part of Hezbollah as well. According to reports in leading Saudi Arabian newspapers, many top Hezbollah leaders suffered from the attack. But reports suggest that one 9 year girl died because a pager in her home ignited.
There are many theories spreading regarding how this operation could have been planned and executed. The Maariv newspaper interviewed the Director of Research at Ben Gurion University’s Cyber Labs, Oleg Brodt. Here is a translation in English. Brodt believes that whoever executed this operation planned it long ago and inserted its operatives inside the supply chain of components used in the assembly of these pagers. He argues that components must have been imbedded inside each pager that could translate specific set of a sequence of signals broadcast over the wireless network to cause ignition and detonation. He claims that an operation like this would have required specific components to have been slipped into the devices and to have made it past quality control procedures of the manufacturer. These pagers were just recently issued a few months ago. Some Hezbollah members felt the device heat up and were able to discard it before they exploded. You can see a video of a device exploding here. And there are two videos posted here.
In light of the fact that Hezbollah is accusing the IDF of carrying out this pager attack of mass destruction, the IDF and Home Front Command are bracing for a significant increase in drone and rocket attacks tomorrow. The former editor of The Jerusalem Post offers this analysis of the implications of this operation here. And here is another great analysis of the meaning of this operation by Seth Franzman, a sailing buddy and military analyst for The Jerusalem Post.
Independent of this operation, Lebanese media sources report several IDF drone strikes late this afternoon. One vehicle was hit 100 km from the Israeli border in the Baalbek District in eastern Lebanon where Hezbollah manufactures and stores many of its long range missiles. Later, this evening Saudi Arabia newspaper Al-Arabiya reports that three other Hezbollah members were killed in a different drone strike at Majdel Shelm, only 5 km across the border with Israel.
Earlier in the day Hezbollah launched several kamikaze drones into northern Israel. Some of them were intercepted. Two impacted the settlement of Ramot Naftali only 2 km south of the Lebanese border.
Yemen Operations
The Greek-flagged oil tanker Souinion has finally been towed to a safe harbor by European Union naval vessels, hopefully preventing an environmental disaster.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
The body of the Jordanian soldier/terrorist who killed 3 Israeli civilians on September 8 was returned to Jordan for burial today.
Aid
The WHO has completed its polio inoculation program in Gaza with every child receiving the first dose. The second dose is scheduled to be administered in about two months.
Yesterday 168 trucks with humanitarian aid entered Gaza, depositing their loads inside the staging area. Aid organizations delivered about 136 truck loads of aid.
IDF
The government has now officially added the goal of “returning the 70,000 displaced Israelis from the northern communities to their homes” to the list of goals of The War.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Khaled Meshal, one of Hamas’s remaining senior leaders, granted an interview to The New York Times in which he said that Hamas is in no hurry nor motivated to reach a ceasefire deal. He also said that Hamas would be around when the IDF leaves and will continue playing. major role in Gaza in the future.
Politics/Protests
There is also a lot to report in the political sphere here in Israel. Defense Minister Gallant and Prime Minister Netanyahu have been at odds, publicly, this past two weeks. Initially, the issue related to the non-negotiations that have been stalled as Gallant thinks that the country can manage without controlling the Rafiah Corridor for six weeks of the ceasefire, then take control over it later. I have discussed this issue at length in previous posts. But the big issue now is the legislation being drafted regarding the draft exemption of the ultra-orthodox. Those of you who have been following me for some time will recall that I wrote on the subject as far back as February 28 and pointed to this article for reference. At the time I wrote this:
So as I promised, here is the background…. And here is a timely article in my favorite weekly news publication - https://www.economist.com/middle-east-and-africa/2024/02/22/ultra-orthodox-israelis-refusal-to-fight-is-a-growing-problem-for-netanyahu . In the aftermath of WW2 and the decimation of Jewish institutions of learning throughout Europe the Ultra-Orthodox who were in Israel wanted to seek a means for restoring these Yeshivot and the learning discipline that came with it. Since the destruction of the second temple and the dispersion of the Jewish communities throughout the Middle East and Europe, Jews created their own institutions of learning throughout the world. Nearly every Jewish male, as a child, was instructed to read, write and speak in Hebrew at these institutions. During the Roman Empire many (not all) citizens of Rome knew how to read and write. Then as time unfolded into the Dark Ages and even into the Renaissance, the only people who were taught to read and write were the Christian Clergy in Europe. Similarly, after the Muslim conquest in the 7th century Madrasas (The Hebrew word for a place of torah study is called a Midrasha. I do not think it is a coincidence, but I am not a linguistic scholar.). There young students learned how to read the Koran. So throughout much of the world that was mostly living in ignorance due to the inability to read or write, the Jewish communities kept their traditions of teaching and studying the Torah, Talmud, Mishna, Gemora and the constantly accumulated knowledge imparted by the great Rabbis and teachers over the millennia in their commentary on these books. So in WW2 much of this came to an end with the destruction of the Jewish communities throughout Europe.
Soon after the founding of the State of Israel, the leaders of the Ultra-Orthodox communities approached David Ben Gurion asking that they be exempted from serving in the IDF so they could focus on re-building these institutions of learning that were destroyed in the holocaust. Ben Gurion agreed. At that time there were a total of 400 such students studying. The Ultra-Orthodox, particularly after the 1960s started having larger and larger families. Today, a typical Ultra-Orthodox family could have 9-11 children. And they marry at a young age. If you are an Ultra-Orthodox female, single and older than 22 years old you are considered an “Old Maid”. Marriages are generally arranged. The prospective bride and groom go on three dates, in public, at which they are not permitted to touch each other. If they both like each other a marriage is planned, generally taking place within 2-4 months after their last date. The married couple starts a family while the husband spends most of his waking hours studying in a “house of learning” - Yeshiva. He often helps take care of the children as the mother is the one who works to bring in some form of income. But in Israel, in order to make ends meet, it is common for both husband and wife to work. Society is structured with Day Care from the age of six months. So the fact that the husbands do not work seriously affects the health of the Israeli Economy. Many feminists claim that this whole arrangement is sexist. I am not one to judge. But I know that if you ask the average Ultra-Orthodox wife she will insist that her husband continue studying full time. And when surveyed most are very happy with these large families. So you should not transpose your values on this society. They do not measure happiness by material wealth. Their means for evaluating happiness is more spiritual fulfillment and being surrounded by many young children. You might ask yourself, if this might be a better way to live than to live without any children whatsoever as has become common in other parts of the world.
So as you can imagine, the population of Ultra-Orthodox young men eligible for the draft has grown considerably. Today the Ultra-Orthodox at draft age number more than 25,000. And the fact that they don’t serve in the IDF is beginning to make a huge dent in our military preparedness. One reason their Rabbis insist on prohibiting them from serving is that they fear they will be exposed to poor values and foreign ways while serving. But the IDF has created special units for the Ultra-Orthodox. In those units the soldiers are permitted time each day to study and pray. Also, the food is Kosher Mahedrin, which is a higher level of Kashrut than normal Israeli society. Most importantly, none of their instructors are female. It is forbidden for an Ultra-Orthodox man to come into physical contact with, or even look at a, female other than his wife`.
In the aftermath of the October 7 attack the IDF has announced that in order to meet its greater demands on personnel it is increasing the term of service for male conscripts from 30 months to 36 months and for female conscripts from 24 months to 36 months. They are also increasing the age from which they can call up a citizen into the reserves from 40 to 45 years old. This is placing a greater burden on the secular and modern orthodox segments of society. And those segments are “not taking this lying down”.
So despite the contractural promises made by Netanyahu to his coalition partners from the Ultra-Orthodox worlds this issue is coming to top again. The Israeli Supreme Court ruled more than 15 years ago that this arrangement of exempting the Ultra-Orthodox violates the statues of equal rights and obligations. And they demanded that the Government change this policy. But for one reason or another, including frequent governments and elections, this principle of unfairness has dragged on for years. But, now it is not only the opposition parties screaming that this cannot continue any longer, but now also members of Netanyahu’s own Likud party as well as his Defense Minister.
But the Ultra-Orthodox strictly follow whatever their Rabbis tell them to do. And these Rabbis do not want to give up their power and authority over their “flock” to an Israeli government. So this is going to be a fight. Not a fist fight, although some will certainly break out in one or more massive demonstrations to come. But, there will be demonstrations in the street and much Civil Disobedience. You can’t incarcerate 26,000 men in Israeli jails.
Now a brief interruption to talk about Lone Soldiers. In the IDF today there are about 7,000 volunteers serving as Lone Soldiers. Half come from abroad. Often they are young Jews coming from every country you can imagine that decide for idealistic reasons that they wish to serve in the IDF. Many stay to live after their service and some return to their countries of origin. The other half of these Lone Soldiers are from the Ultra-Orthodox world. When they inform their families that they intend to enlist in the IDF, their families sit Shiva. For those non Jews reading this, sitting Shiva is a seven day period of serious mourning after an immediate family members dies. So these families regard these children as “dead to them”. This is one of the reasons I am so dedicated to the Lone Soldier cause, as many of you know.
There are some proposals to start getting the large numbers of Ultra-Orthodox to serve by forcing them to do National Service. Many Modern Orthodox young women choose national service instead of enlisting in the IDF. They serve in hospitals, assisted living facilities, schools, special needs schools, etc. We have several working as staff members at the Lone Soldier Center. Actually, in parallel there is much talk of requiring the Israeli Arabs to do National Service. The Israeli Arab Druze, Bedouin and Christians, for the most part, already serve in the IDF. But most moslems do not, for many reasons. But having them do National Service for two years after high school would be good for them, their communities and the nation. They would help out in their own schools and communities.
Prior to serving in the IDF, many young Israeli boys and girls take a year after high school to participate in a “Mechina’. These are small communities, often located in a Kibbutz or Moshav, where they do community service, go through physical training and often learn more. Mostly, they mature. Then when they enter the IDF they are more prepared and succeed at a much higher level. The programs are sponsored by the IDF. It is so successful that it is expanding.
What all these programs do - IDF, Mechinot, National Service - is create a cohesive society that learns how to help/assist one’s fellow citizens. I strongly believe that our society in Israel is much, much stronger because of all of this.
As of now there are 60,000 eligible young ultra-orthodox men who should be serving in the IDF but do not. In the meantime, since the start of the war many of the reservists who hold regular jobs have been called up to serve, in most cases, 3 times. This places a disproportionate burden on part of the population so the other part can avoid serving. The Supreme Court ruled more than 5 years ago that this was illegal as it violated the principle of human equality in society. The government, run by Netanyahu at the time, asked for time to create legislation covering this issue. This request has been repeated no less than 5 times since. Back in April the Supreme Court ruled that in the absence of legislation, the IDF must immediately start drafting ultra-orthodox. An attempt was made, but no more than 3-400 reported to their draft board.
The ultra-orthodox parties in the current government coalition, there are two of them, have now issued formal warnings to Prime Minister Netanyahu that they will leave the coalition unless legislation is passed and upheld by the Supreme Court that will exempt the ultra-orthodox from serving. Many of you will remember that I had previously predicted that of all the issue facing the government this is the one likely to bring the government down.
So how does our Prime Minister react under these circumstances?? There are very strong leaks coming out of the government suggesting that the Prime Minister intends to fire Defense Minister Gallant from his position and have him replaced. This is because Defense Minister Gallant insists on legislation that can be supported across much of the parliament, including opposition parties. Gallant, in his position, is also likely to get support from 3-4 members of the Likud Party (the main party in the current government) as traditionally Likud has had the position that the ultra-orthodox must serve. So the Prime Minister appears to be recruiting a former senior Likud member who broke away to form his own party, Gideon Sa’ar. Sa’ar believed that he should be the natural leader of The Likud instead of Netanyahu. Because Netanyahu always shoved him aside, he left the party to form his own. And that party did OK in the last election, but surveys show that it may not survive into the next one.
So Netanyahu is recruiting Sa’ar to take over the Defense Minister position so he can fire Gallant. If he succeeds then the four seats that Sa’ar brings with him will be enough to overcome those who oppose this legislation from Gallant and the other Knesset members who intend to vote like him. This whole tragic play is still being played out. I expect more news on this subject tomorrow.
I will update you tomorrow and provide my view on this subject then.
International
President for Life of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas was invited to Spain as it is one of three European Union countries to “recognize” Palestine in the aftermath of the October 7 attack by Hamas on Israel.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid visited Washington, DC this week, meeting with Secretary of State Antony Blinken, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan and several Republican Senators. Today he met with former President Barack Obama. In his meetings, Lapid stressed that an inordinate amount of time was given for a diplomatic solution to the situation in Southern Lebanon and that time was running out as Israel can no longer tolerate having 70,000 of its northern residents displaced from their homes for nearly a year.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Dennis Ross is one of the most thoughtful and experienced writer and analyst of the Middle East and the Israeli-Arab War. He wrote this thoughtful analysis of the strategic opportunities for Israel and the potential mine fields in the near future. I do not agree with everything he writes, but when he talks you listen.
And here is a good summary and analysis of the situation in Gaza leading into the future.