Today’s Image
Today, some organization detonated this new weapon of mass destruction. No one is taking responsibility for this and the Japanese manufacturer denies responsibility. My hand held VHF I use when sailing looks almost identical to this device.
So here is what we have…. Radio devices made by “no one” must have been intercepted by “no organization claiming responsibility” and reassembled with enclosed explosives “by no one” and finally triggered by some organization that remains a mystery since no one took credit for the operation. Everyone is distancing themselves from these walkie-talkies and the pagers used in yesterday’s attack. And yet, the UN Security Council is going to meet and debate the operation in New York. You could not make this stuff up if you tried…. It shows just how absurd the UN and the world have become.
A Procedural Issue
As the attention of the IDF and the country starts shifting to the fighting with Hezbollah, I will shift the organization of my posts accordingly starting with my next post.
My View - Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemptions
Yesterday, I went into length to the background and context about one of the more central issues facing Israeli Society at this moment. Yes, The War is the main focus of attention. But, the issue of the Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemptions has the real possibility of bringing down this government, which has a huge impact on the ongoing campaign in this War. I have two views on this issue. Actually, one is more like a “theory” than a view. I will describe it first.
There are several “leaked rumors” in the past few days on this issue which make no sense to me. And because of this, I believe that it is possible that it is actually just a smoke screen intended to let our enemies think that the level of discord in the government is really bad and very serious.
Firstly, the position of the main Ultra-Orthodox Party threatening to leave the government if it does not come up with legislation by the end of the Jewish Holiday period that will be voted into law by the Knesset. If they were to bring the government down by living up to their threats, the current polling in the general population suggests a different spectrum of parties in the next government and any legislation they pass will be much, much less favorable to their position than the current government. So, either they are bluffing or they don’t care to work within the normal rules of any government, and will just ignore the law. The latter makes little sense since the next government can do a lot (and I mean a lot) to cut back on the generous subsidies their constituencies received.
The other item making no sense are the rumors of firing Defense Minister Gallant and replacing him with Gideon Sa’ar and his party of 4 Knesset Members, all of whom are former members of Likud, Netanyahu’s Party. While I believe that the friction between Gallant and Netanyahu is real, it is hard to believe that it is serious enough for Netanyahu to risk bringing in Sa’ar to the government. On the surface, bringing in four Knesset Members into the government to ensure the safe passage of an Ultra-Orthodox Draft Exemption bill makes logical sense (not ethical, but logical). Gallant and most likely 3-4 Likud Party members are likely to vote against such legislation as they contend any IDF Draft Bill should get widespread approval even amongst political parties in the opposition. So, the 4 additional Knesset members that would come with Sa’ar’s entry into the government would overcome this vote deficit. But, from Sa’ar’s view it makes absolutely NO sense for him to join. He left Likud because of all the times that Netanyahu “screwed” him from senior positions in Likud. He hates Netanyahu, and for good reason. Yes, he wanted to be a member in the war cabinet. However, if he and his three party members join this government, once the Draft Exemption Bill is passed they are expendable and Netanyahu will find a reason to push them out of the coalition. Netanyahu has done things like this before so it would not surprise anyone in the country to see it again. Moreover, by joining this government Sa’ar would destroy his future political career. It would be “over”. So, this part of the chess game makes no sense either.
So for these, and a few minor reasons, none of this makes any sense to me. So, my thinking is that perhaps all this is just a smoke screen of political intrigue that is either Netanyahu’s way of proving to the Ultra-Orthodox that he is doing everything he can to accommodate them or it is just a distraction for the country, intending to sow confusion and distract the population and, likely, our enemies.
On the other hand, if this is real it is outright dangerous to the country. While Sa’ar did serve in the IDF, his role was minor and he had no deep understanding of how this largest organization in the country, with the largest budget, operates. A Chief of Staff or his staff could say that “such and such” is an absolute necessity and Sa’ar has no experience to draw from to determine whether what they are saying is true or not. Also, bringing him and his 3 companions into the government will require carving out another ministry along with its budget. This will disrupt the current balance in the government. Other Ministers will complain that they deserve the position. And he can’t get rid of Gallant. He can fire him from the role of Defense Minister, but Gallant will still have a seat in the Knesset. And Netanyahu can’t do anything about that. I believe that firing Gallant will cause massive numbers of people into the street to protest, including yours truly. In each and every poll taken since this government took office, Gallant is the one minister holding the greatest respect and trust from the public.
So, none of this makes sense. I believe that Netanyahu, known as the “magician” because of his uncanny skills at keeping a coalition together, has no more rabbits to pull out of a hat. If the Ultra-Orthodox Parties remain on this path, I believe it will bring down the government. For a long time, I believed that this was a bad thing during the conduct of a war. But, the reality is that the fighting in Gaza has wound down a lot. The country could hold an election now and manage, in my view. But, if a full out war breaks out with Hezbollah then that changes…. and perhaps, just perhaps, this is the only logic behind all of these machinations in the government??
Gaza Rockets
No rockets fired from Gaza landed in Israel in the past 5 days.
Casualties
Today the IDF reported that four soldiers were killed during fighting in the vicinity of Rafah in southern Gaza. They include: Cpt. Daniel Mimon Toaff - 23 (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Agam Naim - 20 (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Amit Bakri - 21 (Z’’L) and Staff Sgt. Dotan Shimon - 21 (Z’’L). Naim was a medic and is the first female IDF soldier killed during operations in Gaza since the start of The War. Several soldiers were wounded in the incident. In total 348 IDF soldiers have been killed during operations in Gaza.
Gaza Operations
This afternoon the IDF conducted another air strike to an evacuated school in Gaza City, hitting a group of Hamas terrorists congregating inside one of its rooms planning an attack. The facility was under surveillance for a full day before the launch to ensure that only the terrorists were inside.
Lebanon Operations
Today, in Lebanon walkie talkies use by Hezbollah exploded in much the same way that the 3,000 or so pager devices blew up yesterday. Again, no one has stepped up to claim credit for this action. In today’s explosions across Lebanon, 14 people died and another 300 seriously injured. The size of the explosions were more deadly, but there were not as many devices deployed vs. the pagers. You must watch this 20 second video taken of the Beirut skyline about the time of the detonation of the walkie talkies. Like a scene from some spy movie. And this one too. The Lebanese Health Ministry announced that as of today the death toll from the pager attack rose to 12 people.
Iranian government spokesman, Fatemeh Mohajerani, in an X.com post wrote:
The terrorism of the Zionist regime causes aversion and disgust. Iran strongly condemns yesterday’s criminal explosion of communication devices and today’s criminal explosion of walkie-talkies, which resulted in the death and injury of hundreds of Lebanese civilians.
Of course, he fails to say why civilians would be holding military grade walkie-talkies.
In this article from The New York Times a member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRGC said that the pagers beeped with a message a few seconds before they exploded so users would hold them near their face to read the message.
These walkie talkies appear to have been manufactured in Japan. The pagers in yesterday’s incident are believed to have been manufactured in Taiwan. This confirms that these devices must have been intercepted somewhere between the manufacturing plant and Lebanon. According to the Japanese manufacturer, ICOM, the models used across Lebanon were phased out of manufacturing in 2014 suggesting that they must have been purchased on a secondary market. Actually, the Taiwanese company Gold Apollo denies manufacturing the pagers and insists that a company called BAC in Hungary made them under license. But Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s government insists that those pagers were never on Hungarian territory. Apparently both the pagers and walkie-talkies were purchase 5 months ago at the same time.
So here is what we have…. Radio devices made by “no one” must have been intercepted by “no organization claiming responsibility” and reassembled with enclosed explosives “by no one” and finally triggered by some organization that remains a mystery since no one took credit for the operation. And yet, the UN Security Council is going to meet and debate the operation in New York. You could not make this stuff up if you tried…. It shows just how absurd the UN and the world have become.
Today, an unnamed official in the Israeli government was quoted as saying “The one who can stop the escalation is Nasrallah if he announces that he is willing to accept the US framework. If not, we are willing to go all the way.” What is being referred to are the attempts by US Envoy Amos Hochstein to convince Hezbollah to live up to the UN Security Council resolution 1701 which was passed after the 2006 Second Lebanese War. This resolution insists that Hezbollah pull back its forces to the Litani River in Lebanon and are to be replaced by regular Lebanese Army. This statement was made in anticipation of a pre-announced statement that will be issued over Hezbollah TV by its Terrorist in Chief, Hassan Nasrallah. Nasrallah has been hiding inside a tunnel deep below Beirut for more than 20 years in fear of assassination by Israel.
Late this afternoon, Hezbollah fired a barrage of 20 rockets into the northern Israeli city of Kiryat Shmona that has been a common target for these attacks. That followed a barrage of 10 rockets earlier in the day striking the western Galilee region not far from the Lebanese border.
Last night an IDF fighter jet struck several buildings in southern Lebanon where they identified several Hezbollah operatives had previously entered.
Yemen Operations
The US CENTCOM announced that the Houthis successfully downed two American MQ-0 Reaper drones in the past week.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
IDF fighter jets were scrambled this morning and neutralized a drone that entered Israeli air space from Iraq. In a separate incident a drone launched by Hezbollah was intercepted over the Mediterranean Sea before it reached land.
Aid
Yesterday 182 aid trucks entered Gaza and unloaded their cargo in the staging areas. Aid organization picked up 139 for distribution. Most of this aid is confiscated by Hamas enroute and then sold for profit to Gaza citizens. It is not clear where the cash comes from for these transactions.
IDF
Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi visited the senior commanders in northern Israel today. Some of the comments he made to the senior staff have been released to the public. He warned that Israel has “many capabilities” that have not been use yet in fighting Hezbollah. He said:
We are very determined to create the security conditions that will bring the residents [of the north] back to their homes, to the towns, with a high level of security, and we are ready to do whatever is required to enable this. We have many capabilities that we have not yet activated… we have seen some of these things, it seems to me that we are well prepared and we are preparing these plans going forward. The rule is that every time we reach a certain stage, we have already prepared to move ahead forcefully with the next two steps. At each stage, the cost for Hezbollah should be high.
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant visited a major IDF Air Base today and made these comments:
The center of gravity is moving north. We are diverting forces, resources, and energy toward the north. I believe that we are at the onset of a new phase in this war, and we need to adapt. We will need consistency over time, this war requires great courage, determination, and perseverance. We have not forgotten the hostages and we have not forgotten our tasks in the south. This is our duty and we are performing it at the same time.
He said that one of the major divisions, division 98, in Gaza has now been redeployed to the north. Its commander, Major General Dan Goldfus, was recently promoted and reassigned to the northern front. I, and much of the country, hold Major General Goldfus in very respect.
And the chief of the IDF Northern Command, Major General Ori Gordin, said today:
The mission is clear: We are determined to change the security reality as soon as possible. The commitment of the commanders and the troops here is complete, with peak readiness for any task that will be required.
This followed a major drill conducted by the IDF in the north simulating a ground invasion into Lebanon.
Yesterday, I reported that Israel’s Shin Bet uncovered a remotely triggered bomb that was intended to be used against a “former Israeli Security Official”. Today that official was identified as former Defense Minister and Chief of Staff, Moshe Ya’alon. Ya’alon is a well respected military and political figure.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Today, Egypt announced that it would not agree to any changes in the security system along its border with Gaza. So basically this neutral intermediary is supporting the reconstitution of Hamas to rule Gaza and launch a future attack against Israel like October 7. Sounds more like aiding and abetting terrorism than acting like a neutral intermediary.
Secretary of State Antony Blinken is in Egypt now discussing with Egypt how to move forward on a ceasefire deal. In his press briefing he said that 15 of the 18 paragraphs in the deal have been agreed to. President for Life of Egypt Abdel-Farrah el-Sissi pledged to Blinken that he would step up efforts to achieve a hostage/ceasefire deal.
Politics/Protests
On Sunday I reported that a woman was arrested, then released, for breaking and entering a synagogue (place of worship) in order to place flyers demanding a deal to release the hostages. That synagogue is attended by Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein, a senior member of the Likud Party. It turns out that she and her cohorts did not break the law, but apparently they along with more than 50 others congregate every Saturday on the route between Edelstein’s home and the synagogue he attends to harass him. In my view Edelstein is one of the sanest voices in this government and does not deserve to be harassed on the Sabbath on his way to pray each week. The disrupters intentionally yell to disrupt the quiet of the day near his private home, hold Yoga session, BBQs and picnics near his home.
International
Germany has effectively put a hold on all arms exports to Israel as it deals with a series of internal court issues. Prior to The War, Israel imported about $40M in arms from Germany each year. This shot up to about $350M in 2023 after the outbreak of The War. But, exports classified as “weapons of war” only constituted about $35M or 10%. It is not clear how this is going to unfold or be rectified.
Meantime, Senator Bernie Sanders from the state of Vermont is preparing a resolution for passage in US Congress blocking $20B in arms sales to Israel. Such great fans we have, no??
At the assistance of Algeria, one of the temporary members of the UN Security Council, the UN Security Council is scheduled to meet on Friday to debate the deadly pager blasts in Lebanon. In the meantime, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that the pager blasts targeting Hezbollah indicate “a serious risk of a dramatic escalation in Lebanon and everything must be done to avoid that escalation. Obviously, the logic of making all these devices explode is to do it as a pre-emptive strike before a major military operation.”
Today, the UN General Assembly adopted a resolution demanding that “Israel bring an end without delay to its unlawful presence in Occupied Palestinian Territory within 12 months”. The resolution specifically highlighted that this pertained to the West Bank and East Jerusalem, including the Temple Mount. I do not understand how they think they have authority. Jerusalem has been the capital of the Jewish People for more than 4,000 years. A total of 124 countries voted in favor of the measure, 14 opposed and 43 abstained. Among those that opposed were USA, Israel, Czechia, Argentina and 10 others. Most European countries abstained, including Ukraine (which is consistently asking for military assistance from Israel), UK, Germany and Italy. Canada and Australia also abstained.
In contrast to our presumed European allies who vote against us at the UN, Finland (along with Czechia) stand out. Today Finland’s President Alexander Stubb defended his country’s decision to buy arms from Israel despite the war in Gaza. They placed a significant order for David’s Sling, Israel’s ground based Surface to Air high altitude Missile Defense system that worked so well against the April 13 attack launched by Iran. He also said that while his government supports a two state solution that now was not the time to be recognizing a Palestinian state.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
This analysis by Liel Leibovitz, editor of Table Magazine, deserves your time and attention. He provides one point of view on the protests ongoing in Israel and their impact on society and The War.
This article in The Times of Israel is a heartwarming report on how ordinary Israeli women are traveling up to Majdal Shams, the Druze village in the north that suffered from that horrendous rocket attack killing 12 children, in order to provide various forms of therapy for the women suffering from this horrendous loss. First, it is heart warming to see how one segmenet of Israeli Society jumps at the opportunity to help another. Second, it is interesting to see how a segment of society deals with a therapy they have never experienced before.
I mentioned Major General Dan Goldfus earlier in this post. Here is an interview, in English, with him that was recently posted. I am posting this because I hold him with a great deal of respect and hope that he has a major future in the defense of our country. Here is a much better, detailed interview with him, but it is in Hebrew.