Today’s Image
This is the Hezbollah organization chart of terrorists responsible for leading its military operations. The chart at the top shows the leadership that reports into its Supreme Leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Note the two on the right of the chart which are still alive. The chart on the bottom is the leadership of the Radwan Unit, considered to be a formidable fighting force. The red tags indicate that they have been eliminated as a result of IDF operations. The two remaining commanders, Ali Karaki and Abu Ali Rida, have been promoted by the Hezbollah Jihad council. These images were taken from the IDF’s top wanted charts. The deaths have been confirmed by Hezbollah.
My View - A Topsy Turvy View of a Hostage/Ceasefire Deal
Those of you following my posts from the early days may remember that I frequently used references to Gilbert & Sullivan Musicals to describe how ironic and illogical events unfold here in the Middle East. I am now going to describe my view on how to best end The War in Gaza and retrieve as many of our hostages as possible. But first a word of warning - It is going to sound completely contrary to logic…
Despite the naive and misguided optimism of Secretary of State Antony Blinken and his truly Quixotic approach to a “deal” he is not going to reach his (and our goal) using his current approach. The US State Department has demonstrated beyond a shadow of a doubt that they are totally clueless when it comes to negotiating with parties in the Middle East. You need look no further than the absurd JCPOA Agreement forced through during the Obama Presidency. The Sinwar Brothers (Yahya & Mohammed) are absolutely ruthless and blood thirsty tyrants without any regard to human life, including citizens of Gaza. As I have said numerous times before they have spent a lifetime building a society steeped in jihad, martyrdom, hatred of Jews and a genocidal cult. They had built an army of suicidal fanatics seeking death while killing as many Jews as possible. They are still sitting in Gaza, surrounded by innocent Israeli hostages. Some of their murderous compatriots above ground are relaxing at swimming pools knowing that the IDF cannot attack without resulting in the death/murder of whatever hostages are alive and nearby. Knowing this, they have created a situation where the IDF is unable to move any further. It is paralysis. Even if by some terrible mistake the Israeli government were to agree to their conditions, the best Israel can hope for is a handful of hostages to be released. The Sinwar brothers will NEVER release all the hostages as they know that this is the only way the IDF is blocked from assassinating them. They will keep some number of hostages FOREVER. I know that this is hard to swallow, but it is reality. The Sinwar Brothers are not going to leave Gaza and they will do whatever it takes to ensure that they will have the future ability to rebuild an army of murderers. They will stop at nothing to accomplish these goals. No matter how many times Secretary of State Blinken visits the Middle East or how many protestors show up in Tel Aviv this reality will not change. If anything those actions - Blinken visits and Tel Aviv protestors - only encourage the Sinwar Brothers to be more obstinate.
It is my view that the only chance to get the Sinwar Brothers to a deal is to put them in a position where they see that “All is Lost”. This or the IDF storms their hideout, risking the lives of the remaining hostages. So how do we get them to conclude that “All is Lost”? If leaders of the Western World had not lost their moral compass by criticizing Israel and making ridiculous daily accusations against us, they might get the message. But waiting for US and European leaders to regain their moral compass is too risky. So, it is my view that one of the best ways for them to realize that "All is Lost” is be making sure they understand that Hezbollah lost its ability to threaten Israel from the north. To accomplish that, Israel must push Hezbollah forces north of the Litani River, out of rocket range, and destroy much of their arsenal of rockets/missiles. Victory in the north is very different from victory in Gaza. It is not necessary for the IDF to eliminate Hezbollah’s ability to rule Lebanon nor to destroy its army’s fighting capability. Just push it far enough from our border that we are out of range of their rockets, they can’t fire anti-tank missiles and we can spot inbound drones long before they reach our border. Their long range missiles can still hurt us, but they have fewer of those with which to cause widespread damage.
Compared to Hamas, fighting Hezbollah will be more challenging in some ways and simpler in others. First of all, with the exception of the coastal city of Tyre, southern Lebanon consists of small villages without a major urban center. Most of the civilians in southern Lebanon have already left their homes by order of Hezbollah. Tyre, the only city south of the Litani River, has a population of about 100,000. I do not know how many remain. So the difficulty of discriminating between civilians and combatants should be simpler. However, Hezbollah has a larger and more seasoned fighting force of about 40-50,000 soldiers. They have a bit fewer after the events of the past week. Their tunnel infrastructure is more sophisticated as well. Their tunnels are more deeper, more fortified and have facilities (including communications) that will make it much harder for the IDF. The IDF will have overwhelming air superiority with its fleet of uniquely equipped fighter jets. While the jets have been purchased from the USA, much of the electronic systems are home built by Israel.
The Israeli public has been braced by the Home Front Command to expect the likelihood that electric power plants, water desalinization plants and other critical infrastructure might be hit during a war with Hezbollah. The population is also aware that missiles could hit major population centers. In the beginning, Hezbollah will do what it can to target the air bases in northern Israel as its only way of deterring the use of our superior air force. It is possible that they would hit a run way or two, but there are quite a few air bases distributed throughout the country.
I apologize for having to go into the details of what a war with Hezbollah will look like, in my opinion it is directly related to getting to a hostage/ceasefire deal. There is just no way that the Sinwar Brothers are going to release hostages as long as they think that their friends in Lebanon are strong enough to threaten Israel AND as long as Western Leaders attack Israel and withhold arms on a routine basis. Contrary to Western thinking, these tactics only result in a hardening of their positions and they believe that they can come out of this alive and able to rule Gaza as they had in the past.
Casualties
The IDF reports two IDF soldiers kiled by Hezbollah fire in northern Israel: Major (Reserves) Nael Fwarsy - 43 (Z’’L) and Sgt. Tomer Keren - 20 (Z’’L). They were killed in separate incidents. Fwarsy’s unit was hit by a kamikaze drone. Keren’s unit was hit by a rocket. The total number of IDF soldiers killed in action starting on October 7 is now 715, most of whom died during operations in Gaza.
Lebanon Operations
Late Friday afternoon Israeli fighter jets struck a building in Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut. This neighborhood is the main Hezbollah stronghold inside Beirut. The successful target of this strike was Ibrahim Aqil, the top commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force. In the coming days and the war in Lebanon coming soon, you will hear more and more about this Force. It was the main army that fought in Lebanon in order to keep the President for Life Bashir Assad in power. They are considered to be Hezbollah’s strongest fighting force. With the assassination of Aqil, Hezbollah has lost its two top commanders as Israel previously assassinated Fuad Shukr on July 30. Like Shukr Aqil was wanted by the US Department of Defense. The USA had a bounty of $7M on his head for his role in the 1983 bombing of the US Marine barracks in Lebanon that killed over 200 marines. Aqil was also responsible for the kidnapping of several American and German citizens in the 1980s. Like Shukr, Aqil sat on the Hezbollah Jihad Council reporting directly to its leader Hassan Nasrallah. At this site you can see a photo posted of the building struck in the assassination. Lebanon has an interesting means for electric power distribution. You will see an example in the photo. According to reports, Aqil was underground in a tunnel below the building when it was hit.
In this detailed report, you can see that the entire top command structure of this Radwan Unit of Hezbollah was eliminated, in a single strike. You will see the top IDF “target list” of the Hezbollah leadership. Overall it was reported on Saturday that 37 Hezbollah members were killed in the missile strike. The Lebanese Health Ministry stated that 68 people were wounded in the strike with 15 still hospitalized. In addition to Aqil, the strike successfully eliminated Ahmed Wahbi, head of their training unit and a former commander of the Radwan Force. The IDF insists that Wahbi was involved in the planning of a Hezbollah invasion of the Galilee, much like the October 7, 2023 attack by Hamas. Their goal was to kill as many civilians as possible and then take as many as hostage as they could. Hezbollah confirmed that Wahbi was a senior commander and was killed along with Aqil and the other senior Radwan commanders. According to Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hadath news outlet, Hezbollah appointed Ali Karachi and Halal Hamza to jointly lead the terror group’s operations division. You will find them on the organization charts as the only outstanding Hezbollah leaders still alive. Replacing this leadership that was seasoned through the fighting in the defense of the Assad regime in Syria during their civil war will not be simple as no one has their level of experience or respect from the rank and file. Here you can see/listen/read to the press briefing by IDF Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari on the operation. It is in Hebrew, but a translation into English is provided as well.
Earlier that day, Israeli fighter jets identified a Hezbollah operative entering one of their military facilities in southern Lebanon. The operative, the building and its occupants were destroyed. You can see a video of the operation here.
More information continues to emerge about the pagers and radio communication devices deployed by Hezbollah to its internal commanders and leaders, that exploded earlier this week killing about 40 people and seriously injuring another 3,500. Again, this perpetrator of this operation has yet to identify themselves. Intelligence officials who have been allowed to talk to the press here in Israel told their interviewers that Israel believes that many more Hezbollah operatives were killed in the attack than being admitted. Also, in many cases the pagers were distributed to many of the Hezbollah operatives only hours before they were detonated. Several exploded inside the shipping box, still unopened. And according to sources in Lebanon, in the case of the radios exploding in the second wave of the attack, the batteries inside the devices were laced with an highly explosive compound called PETN which is very hard to identify.
On Friday more than 150 rockets were launched by Hezbollah attacking Israeli towns on the other side of the border. Some reached as far south as Mount Meron, about 8 km south of the border. There is an IDF reconnaissance base there that Hezbollah has been trying to seriously damage since the early days of the war they launched back on October 8, 2023.
Today, Saturday, Israeli fighter jets struck more than 180 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. The IDF believes that it destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rocket launcher barrels in this operation. You can see video footage of some of the strikes here. In more than half you will see secondary explosions indicating that the missiles hit not only the launchers but also rockets stored nearby. You can read more about the strikes here.
Saturday afternoon more than 100 rockets were launched by Hezbollah into Israel Sirens went off in the Israeli cities of Safed and Kiryat Shmona. There were no reports of injuries or damage. In addition 10 rockets were fired at the northern Arab Israeli village of Arab al-Aramshe and another 25 into the Golan Heights. Earlier in the day a barrage of 25 rockets struck northern Israel. No structural damage was reported but wildfires erupted in several areas.
Today, Saturday, the head of the IDF Northern Command, Major General Ori Gordin, held an assessment meeting with his senior officers in northern Israel. They held major infantry drills in the past 48 hours. The chief of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Tomer Bar, said today that “We are continuing to maintain the highest possible level of readiness in the Air Force. Especially in defense, but this has been for a while, and in the offense.” The Israeli Home Front Command has issued new restrictions on civilians living and working in the vicinity of Haifa in northern Israel. These restrictions are intended to reduce civilian exposure in the event of land operations in Gaza by the IDF and in Israel by Hezbollah. The IDF is bracing the country for a severe attack from Hezbollah that they expect over the next 48 hours.
Gaza Operations
Today, Saturday, the IDF struck a Hamas command and control center that was embedded inside a former school in the Zeitoun neighborhood of Gaza City, killing several Hamas operatives inside. The IDF maintained surveillance on the school for hours before initiating the strike to ensure civilians were not nearby.
The IDF announced today that they believe, but are not certain, that two terrorists killed during the first week of September were the likely killers of the six hostages, whose bodies were recovered on August 30. The two were seen emerging from a tunnel that was connected to the tunnel in the Tel Sultan neighborhood of Rafah. You can see photos and read more here.
And today, an IDF operated drone struck a group of gunmen trying to commandeer an aid delivery truck. They were killed in the strike as they tried to flee by car. You can see footage here. This, unfortunately, is a common occurrence. You can read more and see video footage here.
And the IDF announced today that one of its drone launched a missile this morning that struck a leader of Hamas’s Intelligence Wing, Muhammed Mansour. Mansour was source of technological knowledge for the terror group's intelligence. You can read more here.
Overall, the IDF is continuing its clean up operations in Rafah and the surrounding neighborhoods of southern Gaza. Each day the troops encounter residual terrorists that are neutralized as well as arms storage facilities. In the central Gaza Netzarim corridor the existing units of reserves were relieved by active duty troops today, enabling them to return home to their families, university studies and work.
Early last week the IDF struck a storage facility of Hamas rockets. You can see the fireworks here.
Yemen Operations
It has been 6 days since Israel intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis without any report of an attack by Israel on the Houthi territory.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
Today in Syria, near its capital Damascus, some country’s fighter jet launched a missile striking a senior advisor from the Kata’ib Hezbollah, Abu Haider al-Khafaji, and killing him. You can see a photo of this guy here. The organization is another one of Iran’s proxies operating from within Syria.
As you will recall, on April 13 Iran launched over 300 aerial objects at Israel - drones and ballistic missiles - with only 2-3 actually entering Israeli air space with only 1 doing any damage. Iran today, in a military parade, showed off its new kamikaze drones with a 4,000 km range as well as new generation ballistic missiles with a range of 1,000 km. That also places Europe in range of its drones.
Today the US Armed Services announced that it has agreed to withdraw its troops from Iraq by 2026.
Aid
On Friday 182 trucks bearing aid unloaded their cargo in the staging areas inside Gaza. Only goods equivalent to 136 were collected by aid agencies for distribution
Hostages/Ceasefire
In this Wall Street Journal report Biden Administration officials are acknowledging that the probability of a hostage/ceasefire deal before the end of President Biden’s term are remote. In this more detailed report, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby acknowledged that no progress had been made in hostage talks over the past week. The officials speaking to the Wall Street Journal say that one of the biggest obstacles has been the ratio of Palestinian security prisoners Israel must release in exchange for each hostage. The US has said publicly that Hamas has raised the number of prisoners it had originally asked for, even after executing six hostages earlier this month. More broadly, WSJ reports that Hamas has made demands and then refuses to say “yes” to a deal after Israel accepts them.
Politics/Protests
An 83 year old woman launched a hunger strike outside the Knesset demanding the return of the hostages. What she doesn’t seem to understand is that there is really nothing the government can do to recover the hostages that won’t result in a large number of them killed by Hamas. In my opinion no “deal” is going to get them back.
On Thursday I presented my view on the current machinations of the government in its attempt to see a draft exemption bill pass through the Knesset. In it I described the totally illogical step of inviting Gideon Sa’ar into the government and to take on the role of Defense Minister. On Friday a poll was published regarding this issue. When asked who would be most suited to be Defense Minister 38% of the general public prefer the current Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Only 4% favored Sa’ar. Even within the Likud voter base 50% of those polled said that he was not qualified for the role, and 26% registered their approval. When polled as to why Netanyahu was considering replacing Gallant, 63% of the general public said it was for politically motivated reasons and only 24% thought is was in the best interest of the country. This evening Member of Knesset Gideon Sa’ar announced that he will not take up the post of Defense Minister nor join the ruling government coalition…. Sanity finally is restored.
And the ongoing saga of demonstrators disrupting the Shabbat routine of MK Yuli Edelstein continues. On his walk to synagogue today, Edelstein was accosted by demonstrators shouting “shame” (Busha in Hebrew) and “forsaken of Zion”. Edelstein was born in the Soviet Union and was one of those brave souls who actively defied the Soviet authorities in order to emigrate to Israel. These demonstrators do not bring any sympathy to their cause when acting in this way.
Yeterday, Friday, opposition leader Yair Lapid attacked Netanyahu after the bold strike against Aqil and all the Hezbollah commanders in Lebanon. He said:
Netanyahu, what are the goals? It's been 11 months of neglect in the South and the North. And the most important act of all – bringing the 101 hostages home. What about that? Only after operational successes do you run to the media. You are responsible for the greatest disaster in the country's history, and this is your legacy.
What he neglected to say was that during his short term as Prime Minister he signed a maritime border deal with the USA as intermediary, setting maritime borders with Lebanon. It granted the Lebanese generous territory that would have “in theory” enabled it to start exploring for natural gas. This agreement was much more generous than that proposed by previous Israeli governments. In signing the deal Lapid insisted that it would deter Hezbollah from attacking and prevent future wars. So who is the hypocrite here???
International
Due to the rapidly escalation of fighting in our north, the Prime Minister announced that he will cut his trip to New York City short. He is going to NYC in order to deliver his annual address in front of the UN General Assembly. All leaders of nations belonging to the UN are expected to address the assembly once a year around this time.
Israel’s Foreign Ministry filed an official petition with the International Criminal Court challenging the ICC Prosecutor’s Karim Khan’s demand for arrest warrants against Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant. The petition claims that the request by Khan is illegitimate. According to a spokesman for the Foreign Ministry:
There is no other democracy with an independent and well-regarded justice system such as Israel that has faced such discriminatory treatment by the prosecutor. Israel remains committed to the rule of law and to justice, and will continue to defend its citizens from the ongoing attacks and atrocities of Hamas as well as Iran’s other terrorist arms, in accordance with international law.
Incidentally, this petition was issued by the Foreign Ministry of a government pursuing the overhaul of the same judiciary system in order to remove its independence, while using that independence to defend itself. Hypocrisy at its best.
On Friday the Biden Administration announced its support for resuming funding to UNRWA if appropriate accountability measures were implemented. Those of you following my posts will recall the many instances of corruption within the UNRWA I have reported on, the many instances of their employees found to be active operatives of Hamas and their instructors in the the UNWRA schools to teach shahid, martyrdom, hatred, etc. The restoration of funding by the Western Powers is not surprising and it follows a long history that just repeats and repeats itself. Insanity it the repetition of mistakes and expecting a different result.
The UN’s High Commissioner for Human Rights, Volker Turk, informed the Security Council on Friday that detonating Hezbollah pagers constitute a war crime. He insisted that “International humanitarian law prohibits the use of booby-trap devices in the form of apparently harmless portable objects. It is a crime to commit violence intended to spread terror among civilians.” The UN is striving for new goals in its pursuit of hypocrisy.
In an interview with the UK’s The Times Rami Mortada, Lebanon’s Ambassador to the UK, explains that Lebanese Army forces may join Hezbollah should Israel launch ground forces into Lebanon. He said that “We are facing all the risks of an all-out regional conflict and that’s what we have been tirelessly trying to avoid. A war would definitely [be] a doomsday for Lebanon but Lebanon will not hurt alone in this war. That’s what recent history taught us. So all efforts should be focused on avoiding such an outcome.” Yet he and his “government” have done nothing to restrict the independent terrorist militia operating from within its soil.
On Saturday, US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan held a press conference. In reference to the successful Israel operation killing Ibrahim Aqil and his commanders, Sullivan said:
That individual has American blood on his hands and has a rewards for justice price on his head. He is somebody who the United States promised long ago we would do everything we could to see brought to justice. You know 1983 seems like a long time ago. But for a lot of families and a lot of people, they’re still living with it every day
You can read more here about responses from Biden Administration officials regarding the recent IDF successes in Lebanon. White House Mideast czar Brett McGurk says the Biden administration is not shedding a tear over Israel’s killing of top Hezbollah commander Ibrahim Aqil.
Ibrahim Akil, who was killed today, was responsible for the Beirut barracks and embassy bombing 40 years ago. So nobody sheds a tear for him. That said, we have disagreements with the Israelis on tactics and how you kind of measure escalation risk… It is a very concerning situation. I’m very confident that through diplomacy, through deterrence and other means we’ll work our way out of it. We do not think a war in Lebanon is the way to achieve the objective, to return people to their homes. We also fully stand with Israel in their defense of their people and their territory against Hezbollah. We want a diplomatic settlement to the north. That is the objective, and that’s what we’re working towards.
The US efforts have been going on for nearly 12 months to get Hezbollah to move its forces north of the Litani River. It is nice when you sit 10,000 miles away to say one prefers a diplomatic solution after 12 months of efforts have failed an more than 70,000 Israelis are without a home, without a source of income, without schools to which they can send their children, etc., etc.
In a bizarre report that emerged late last week, the Israeli Shin Bet uncovered a plot initiated by Iranian officials to assassinate Prime Minister Netanyahu and Defense Minister Gallant by contracting an Israeli citizen living most of his time in Turkey and tied to criminal operations. You can read more here.
French President Emmanuel Macron called Prime Minister Netanyahu today and accused him of pushing the region to a widespread war. According to him:
You have a responsibility to prevent escalation. There is a diplomatic path. This is the moment to show leadership and responsibility. Your activity in the north is pushing the region to war.
And Netanyahu repolied, appropriately, “Instead of putting pressure on us, it's time for you to put pressure on Hezbollah. We will return our residents home. We made this decision this week, and we will implement it.”
What France seems to have lost sight of is that without military pressure organizations like Hezbollah will not do anything to change. After 12 months of diplomacy neither France nor the USA have anything to show in regards to any progress on the diplomatic front. Yet, it is Israel’s fault that there is a chance of widespread war. And this is after Hezbollah launched totally unprovoked attack on Israel without any grounds whatsoever. Read more here.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
From The Free Press comes this video and report on how average Shi’ite Lebanese are recruited and indoctrinated into Hezbollah at a very young age. Also the corruption in their rule. You should watch it.
And you should really take the time to listen to this podcast with Hudson Institute’s Senior Fellow Liel Leibovitz interviewing French Philosopher Bernard-Henri Levy entitled “October 7 and the Coming Wars for Freedom”. This is a must listen, if you can afford the hour. You can find it here on Spotify and here on Apple Podcasts.
Those of you following me for some time know that I hold much of the Western Media with skepticism bordering on cynicism in their reporting on Israel and the Middle East. I have called it a failure in the moral compass of the West, among other things. Here is an article in Algemeiner describing multiple attempts by The New York Times to come up with a clear description of Hezbollah, each time failing the credibility test.