October 361, 2023, "The War"

My 267th post on The War

Casualties

There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the last 5 days.

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israeli air space in the past 10 days.

Yesterday, Thursday, Hezbollah launched more than 175 rockets into Israel. Most of the rockets landed in open areas. No damage, but 0ne man was moderately wounded from shrapnel. It also launched its first ballistic missile into central Israel, right outside of Tel Aviv, yesterday afternoon. Sirens went off in and around Tel Aviv. The missile, an Iranian Qader-1, was carrying a 500kg explosive charge and could have done a lot of damage. It was intercepted by Israeli developed anti-missile system, David’s Sling (The anti-missile system was named after King David’s sling shot which took down the Phillistine Goliath. The word Palestine was created by the Romans and is derived from the term, Phillistine. Because the Phillistines were a consistent irritant and unfriendly neighbor to Israel (during the First Temple Period) the Romans used the name to piss off the Judeans. The Romans first start using the term right around the destruction of the Second Temple.)

And yesterday, Hezbollah launched a large rocket barrage against the northern, coastal city of Acre. It is a beautiful city. You can see a video of where most of those rockets landed. All the sites from where those rockets were launched were subsequently destroyed. Acre suffered no injuries nor damage from the attack.

Today, Friday Hezbollah continued with its rocket barrages, this time targeting the Israeli city of Tiberias, on Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee), and the city of Haifa. No injuries or damage was reported in either city, although there were reports of falling shrapnel. Some of the rockets landed in Haifa Bay. Others either landed in open areas or were neutralized by air defenses. But fires did break out in some areas around the northern city of Tzfat (Safed) when it was hit earlier by a barrage of rockets. There was damage in that attack to some residential homes, but no injuries. The fires are still blazing.

In Gaza, several rockets were fired yesterday but at IDF troops within Gaza. They never crossed into Israel. Iron Dome neutralized them all.

Lebanon Operations

Yesterday, aerial operations by IDF fighter jets against Hezbollah positions in Lebanon continued. It was estimated that more than 220 physical Hezbollah targets were hit - including rocket launchers, weapons storage facilities and operational quarters. The strikes were carried out in both southern and eastern Lebanon.

Today, Friday, the IDF aerial attacks continue. Launchers from where the rockets fired against Tiberius, Acre, Haifa and Tsfat were eliminated.

Troops are on edge for obvious reasons. Very early Thursday morning troops near a kibbutz along the Lebanese border opened fire after spotting suspicious nearby activity. There has been nothing announced specific by the IDF.

I have to admit, it is getting hard to keep up with the IDF assassinations of Hezbollah senior commanders. Yesterday IDF fighter jets launched their sixth mission into Beirut. This time they successfully killed Muhammad Hussein Srur. According to the IDF, Srur was largely responsible for Hezbollah’s aerial arsenal - kamikaze drones and cruise missiles. Apparently, he led Hezbollah’s drone manufacturing capabilities. Some of these manufacturing facilities are in tunnels below Beirut. You can see the IDF posted video of the assassination here. And here you can see what the explosion looked like from the ground. You will see several explosions subsequent to the hit suggesting that there were other explosives in the building when it was hit.

Gaza Operations

It appears that Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar remains out of touch. Egypt and Qatar insist that they have been unable to send or receive messages from the terrorist leader for more than three weeks now.

The IDF struck a former school in a neighborhood of Jabaliya after ground troops identified several Hamas combatants amassing there. There were no civilians in the area at the time of the strike.

And operations continue in Rafah, albeit at a much lower level of intensity. This week the IDF identified and killed a couple dozen Hamas combatants including 3 that were identified as perpetrators of the October 7 massacre.

Yemen

Today, the Houthis announced today that they targeted 3 US destroyers in the Red Sea with more than 23 ballistic missiles and a a drone. There is no comment yet from US CENTCOM forces in the area.

And the Houthis claim to have fired a ballistic missile and drone into Israel targeting Tel Aviv today. But the IDF reports that it knows nothing about them. Perhaps they blew up while en route?

An “independent panel of experts” who report into the UN Security Council have just finished their preliminary investigation into Yemen and the Houthis. According to their report, the Houthis have grown from a localized armed group to a powerful military organization assisted by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp IRGC, Hezbollah and Iraqi militia groups. According to the report, the Houthis are totally reliant on these organizations for financial and military support. The Houthis are unable to build, launch or target the missiles they receive from these outside groups.

Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye

Syria is reporting large movements of Lebanese as well as former Syrians into Syria from Lebanon for the purpose of avoiding the destruction going on. So far about 23,000 people have moved across the border from Lebanon. The UN has placed the number at 30,000.

Meanwhile, the UN nuclear inspectors announced that Iran has not made any changes in its position and inspections of their nuclear facilities are banned. Personally, I do not understand why this is an issue. Even when inspectors were allowed in, they were only permitted to visit a few facilities and none of the serious ones.

Algeria has been inclined to join the fray of rhetoric recently. About two months ago, its leader reached out to encourage Hamas and its leadership in its goals. Then about a month ago it offered (but has not lived up to that offer) to deliver oil shipments to Lebanon as its power plants were without fuel. Now they have imposed new visa requirements on visitors from neighboring Morocco. This is strange to the normal mind since the borders between Algeria and Morocco have been closed for more than 30 years. While not in a “hot” war, the two countries hold animosity for each other largely because of the contested region of former Spanish Sahara, south of Morocco. Morocco claims the territory as theirs but Algeria recognizes the Polisario Front as the government there. In the past week several Moroccan visitors to the Algerian city of Tiemcen were arrested on charges of being spies.

IDF/Government

The Chief of the Israeli Air Force, Major General Tomer Bar, said on Thursday that the Air Forces has now made the prevention of all weapon transfers from Iran to Hezbollah a major priority. Although it was not said, I presume that this suggests that the Air Force has taken out a lot of the existing rocket and missile systems. If it can prevent Iranian re-supplies from reaching Hezbollah they can overcome the Hezbollah threat. I am skeptical as this is a very difficult goal to accomplish.

During comments on a popular Israeli radio channel, an Israeli Security Official (I did not catch his name in time.) made some comments that are pertinent to the war in our north. He said that in the case of Hezbollah, the goal is simply to push Hezbollah out of rocket range from Israel’s border. The goal is simple and does not entail the complexity of the situation in Gaza. There is no goal to displace a government, eliminate a military force in its entirety or secure borders preventing the smuggling of arms. As a consequence, he believes that with the narrower objectives that the war should not go on nearly as long as the war in Gaza. When asked whether he thought that ground forces will be needed in Lebanon, the official declined comment. Ultimately, Israel wishes to see UN Security Council Resolution 1701 implemented and implemented in a way that carries with it enforcement.

Aid

Today, Hamas gunmen in the Gaza Strip shot and killed an aid worker from a US based charity, firing on her car in what Hamas officials claimed was a case of mistaken identity. I am willing to bet that you won’t hear screams from the Director of her NGO nor will you see this story on your nightly news.

Well, the International Committee of the Red Cross ICRC seems to be successful in securing visits to prisoners when there aren’t Jews involved. Their staff in Yemen was able to secure visits to the crew of the hijacked ship, kidnapped by the Houthis in Yemen. But, they didn’t visit the hostages in Gaza once. And just for historical clarity, they never bothered to visit Jews in the concentration camps in Germany, Czechoslovakia and Poland during WW2 either. Those 25 crew members have been held hostage since November 2023. They are from Bulgaria, Philippines, Romania, Ukraine and Mexico. The ship’s operator is Japanese. I wish them a speedy return to their families…

Meanwhile, regarding The War in Gaza, the government is requesting recommended plans from the IDF on how it might take over the aid distribution in Gaza in order to prevent Hamas from commandeering it and extorting its own citizens for money during its distribution.

Politics/Protests

Protestors in Tel Aviv blocked traffic again on the main thoroughfare of Menachem Begin Road. I can see that road from my apartment in Tel Aviv. So, luckily, I managed to sneak out using a different route in order to get back to Jerusalem last night, Thursday. While perhaps I am repeating myself, at this point there is no distinction between these hostage release protests and anti-government protests. They are the same people, same signs and same tactics.

And protestors met Prime Minister Netanyahu in New York on his arrival there. These were not pro Hamas rioters wearing Keffiyehs and yelling “Intifada, Revolution”. These were Israeli Americans protesting against his government.

International

There is a major political storm that seems to have broken out in response to the US-French led efforts to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. First, I wish to point out that the French never seemed bothered to seek a ceasefire previously when Hezbollah initiated this conflict on October 8, unprovoked and with no cause. More than 70,000 Israelis have lost their homes and have been living like refugees inside their own country for 12 months. Hezbollah, for no reason other than sympathy to Hamas’s butchery on October 7 launched more than 8,000 rockets and missiles into Israel without a SINGLE world leader insisting on a cease fire. But, only now when Israel takes the initiative to defend itself does the hypocrite President Macron demand a ceasefire and that the USA reign in Israel. As soon as Israel responds to thousands of rockets fired into its territory, Macron castigates and votes against Israel in the UN.

It appears that through the auspices of Minister of Strategic Affairs Ron Dermer (a very close aid to the Prime Minister) an understanding was reached in which Prime Minister Netanyahu would endorse the ceasefire initiative of Biden and Macron. According to Western diplomatic sources, going unnamed in the Israeli press for the moment, the Prime Minister and his aids were closely involved in crafting and approving the joint statement issued by the US and several other countries. This initiative was calling for a 21 day ceasefire along the “Blue Line”. The Blue Line is the unrecognized border between Israel and Lebanon. It is not called a border because it is technically only a ceasefire line since there is no Peace Treaty between Lebanon and Israel. If it weren’t for Hezbollah, by now there would bre a Peace Treaty. During that 21 day period the parties were to negotiate in order to secure the release of the hostages, a ceasefire deal in Gaza and Hezbollah withdrawing its forces “away from the border”. The top echelon of the IDF insists that Hezbollah must pull its forces all the way to the Litani River, which will place northern Israel outside rocket range. Hezbollah could still attack with longer range rockets and missiles, but then the IDF would have longer to respond. Except for the ambiguity regarding “away from the border” this is a position that most Israelis could work with.

But, on landing in New York City, in advance of his speech to the General Assembly on Friday, Prime Minister Netanyahu met with reporters and told them that Israel would continue striking Hezbollah “with full force” and would not stop until its goals are achieved. The reality is that what the Prime Minister said in those comments and the initiative coming out of the White House are not inconsistent. But, the White House views his statements as “backtracking” and were not happy. It is not clear why the White House is so upset with the Prime Minister. It seems that the US Administration did not like Netanyahu’s use of the words “with full force” which likely meant all out war. Perhaps the right thing for Netanyahu to have said would be that his government prefers a diplomatic resolution instead of a full out war, but if there is no sign that Hezbollah is willing to move its forces north of the Litani River then Israel is prepared to achieve its aims using force. But he didn’t. And the most likely reason he didn’t was because he had the two extremist parties in his government as well as some members of his own party, making public statements that they would bolt the coalition if there is a ceasefire before we attain our goals regarding Hezbollah. According to reports on Israeli TV, part of the understanding was that Netanyahu was going to make references to the emerging diplomatic initiative in his speech to the UN today, Friday. Apparently even details on what Netanyahu would say in his speech were worked out to be something like - “Israel welcomes any ceasefire initiative that would safely enable the return of northern Israeli residents to their homes.” But, the reaction from Netanyahu’s government pushed the Prime Minister to his current position… which may change.

Ultimately, early this morning, Friday, a formal translation of the Prime Minister’s comments (made in Hebrew) was submitted to the White House. In it, the Prime Minister said that Israel would continue engaging in the effort to secure a diplomatic agreement between Israel and Hezbollah. This seems to have quieted things down a lot.

But, the reality is that it is all irrelevant since Hezbollah will dismiss any such initiative anyway. They say that they will not cease firing until there is a ceasefire in Gaza. Israel’s position is that the the situations are not linked and it will cease firing only when Hezbollah’s forces are either destroyed (not a goal of the government or IDF) or pull back to north of the Litani River in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

Just a lot of frayed nerves it seems…

In the meantime Macron is issuing statements that only aggravate the frayed nerves. Yesterday he said:

Israel must stop its strikes and Hezbollah must stop its retaliating.

This just shows how biased and ignorant the man is. Israel did not start this conflict with Hezbollah. There is no outstanding territorial claim of Lebanon against Israel or Israel against Lebanon. Hezbollah launched this war on October 8th and it is they who must stop the strikes.

Unlike France, Germany is showing a what a true ally looks and feels like. Benny Gantz, leader of the National Union Party and former member of the War Cabinet, was in Berlin on a diplomatic visit with high ranking officials in the German Government. Today, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz posted on his X account:

Hezbollah must withdraw from the border area of Lebanon. All parties have a responsibility to find a diplomatic solution.

Germany is one of the countries that joined the USA-France led initiative to reach a ceasefire in Lebanon.

And this story has to take the prize for today. A group of international trade unions have filed a complaint with the UN’s labor organization claiming compensation for 200,000 Arab workers from Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank) against Israel. They claim that since the start of the war, Israeli firms have not employed these workers denying them of potential lost compensation. That’s right. Only in the Middle East. First of all, there is no agreement in place that requires Israel to employ these people. Second, many of them were mapping the homes and facilities of their places of work for the benefit of Hamas and the attackers on October 7. And, Israel is an “at will” country. No one is forced to work and no employer is forced to employ someone. Ridiculous…

Meanwhile Norwegian police have launched a search for a Norwegian Indian man apparently liked to the pagers bought by Hezbollah that exploded last week. The 39 year old Rinson Jose went missing on the same day as the pagers blew up. It is not clear what charges they are issuing against the missing person.

Media

In a surprising turn for the better, an Israeli-American producer, Shachar Bar-On, received an award for Outstanding Edited Interview at the 45th Annual News & Documentary Emmys. The Interview was between US journalist Leslie Stahl from CBS’s “60 minutes” and Yarden Roman-Gat. Roman-Gat, 34, was kidnapped by Hamas terrorists from the home of her in-laws on Kibbutz Be’eri on October 7. Until now a couple of these types of awards were going to Arab journalists in Gaza who often moonlighted as Hamas operatives, enabling them to capture unique footage.