October 363, 2023, "The War"
My 269th post on The War
Today’s Image
No, this is not a scene from some disaster movie. It is a photo taken today of oil storage tanks on fire in the Houthi port of Hodeidah. And it, along with scenes of Syrians/Lebanese celebrating Nasrallah’s death are appearing in headlines across the media in the Gulf States. Yes, the IAF struck the Houthis again after their attempted attack on our airport late last week. I will reset my clock on how many days go by before their next failed attack…
Casualties
There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the last 5 days.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israeli air space in the past 10 days.
More than 60 rockets were fired by Hezbollah today and 2 kamikaze drones. This evening 10 rockets targeted the Western Galilee and another 25 the Haifa Bay Area. Nearly all the rockets landed in open areas away from dense population. No damage or injuries have been reported. The two drones entered Israeli maritime borders and were shot down over our territorial waters by Israeli Naval Missile boats equipped with Iron Dome systems. Earlier this afternoon a barrage of 10 rockets were fired into the Upper Galilee - Tzfat and Rosh Pina. Most of those were intercepted by Iron Dome air defenses. And this was after 10 rockets were fired at the northern towns of Afula and Nazareth, more than 45 km from the Lebanese border. Most were intercepted by aerial defenses. No injuries or damage reported.
Lebanon Operations
Many more details are emerging regarding the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah yesterday, Saturday, early morning. Altogether 20 Hezbollah operatives were killed. Here is a list of some of them:
Hassan Nasrallah, General Secretary of Hezbollah,
Ali Karaki, the commander of Hezbollah’s Southern Front (he was in the org chart I provided yesterday),
Samir Tawfiq Deeb, an adviser to Nasrallah,
Abd al-Amir Muhammad Sablini, responsible for Hezbollah’s force buildup,
Ibrahim Hussein Jazini, head of Nasrallah’s personal security unit,
Ali Nayef Ayoub, responsible for Hezbollah’s firepower
Abbas Nilforoushan, Deputy Commander of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (he was close to Qasem Soleimani)
And here are some operative details… At least 8 separate F-15 fighter jets collaborated in the assassination. More than 15, 2,000 pound bunker busting bombs were dropped in order to reach the tunnel facility buried more than 70 meters below the surface and supported by heavy layers of reinforced concrete. This facility is similar to the nuclear facilities in Iran. Each bomb had to be precisely dropped within 10 meters of each other and within a window of 3 seconds between drops. It was an amazing, precisely executed operation that will be talked about for many, many years in military circles. It is something that the Israeli Air Force can be very, very proud of. This explains all the jet aircraft traffic we hear on Saturday morning in Jerusalem. Those jets took from an airfield a bit south of Jerusalem.
Across much of the Arab World there was a lot of celebrating last night after Nasrallah’s death was announced. This is in contrast to all the public warnings coming out of the leaders of the Western World. Here are scenes from street dancing in Syria. And here are scenes from celebrations in part of Lebanon. You might find this article interesting as it posts a video, in Arabic, published by the Saudi Arabian media outlet, Al-Arabiya, in which they detail exactly how the operation was executed by the IAF. And here is one of many parties thrown in Iran to celebrate. I do not mean to suggest that everyone in Lebanon and Syria are celebrating the assassination. The Shi’ite militias are certainly in mourning and pissed off. But many, many people across the Levant hate Hezbollah because of all the people butchered by the organization on behalf of Iran’s agenda. Such reports there, and in other Gulf States, indicate their admiration for the daring and precise Israeli operation. Without absolutely no doubt, operations such as this do more to eventually lead to detente between the other Gulf States and Israel, in the future, than any thing else.
IDF fighter jets struck more than 50 Hezbollah rocket launchers and weapons depots in southern Lebanon this afternoon. And the attacks continued into the evening. The IDF claims that it hit 120 sites this evening including regional command and control rooms. One barrage came in, early this morning, targeting the city of Tiberia along the shores of the Kinneret Lake (Sea of Galilee). Here you can see a video of one of the rockets falling in the water.
You won’t read this in the press, but IDF special forces have been operating with specific missions on the ground in Lebanon since the beginning of the war. It is not reported in the press, but it is pretty apparent when you listen to what is said between the lines. Moreover, it is believed, but not reported, that the range of these ground based activities has started increasing. I do not think that this suggests that a full ground invasion is imminent. Instead, it is my view that these small, targeted operations are for getting better reconnaissance and targeting limited Hezbollah operations that can’t easily be reached via aerial bombardment.
Reports are coming out of Beirut that the neighborhood of Dahiyeh has been struck again.
Hezbollah confirmed that in an operations separate from the Nasrallah assassination, one of its senior officials Nabil Qaouk was killed yesterday in an IDF air strike. Wouk was head of the southern Lebanese area in the executive council. He was struck while in the southern suburb of Dahiyeh in Beirut.
Today, Lebanon’s caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati said in a televised speech that the country must arrive at a diplomatic resolution of the conflict.
Gaza Operations
The ID conducted a drone strike on a former school, Umm al-Fahm, in Beit Lahiya in northern Gaza. After hours of surveillance and civilians absent from the facility the IDF struck the site with many Hamas operatives inside.
Today in the central part of Gaza, IDF troops destroyed a recently discovered kilometer long tunnel. Inside the tunnel were several rooms with equipment and arms belonging to Hamas, but no sign of hostages. Here are more details and videos of the tunnels and then its destruction.
Yemen Operations
I wondered how long it would take for the IDF respond. Today, Israeli fighter jets, with refueling aircraft, struck the Houthi controlled area of Yemen at multiple sites. In addition to the port of Hodeidah, which was struck previously, the jets also struck the backup port of Ras Isa in Western Yemen. The jets fired missiles hitting power plants and oil storage infrastructure. All these facilities are used to fuel naval drones and to import arms from Iran. Here are some locally recorded videos of the destruction posted on social media along with some more details. Here is a view of the strike on one of the oil storage facilities. And here are some more.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
US Armed Forces struck an ISIS/Al Qaeda linked group in northwestern Syria. It was reported that 37 terror operatives were killed in the attack. There was no mention of how many civilians were killed in the operation.
Some country’s fighter jets struck the western Syrian city of al-Qusayr, between Homs and the Lebanese border. This area is rampant with arms smuggling going into Lebanon, originating in Iran.
There are reports of an unknown group of fighter jets attacking a base in the very eastern part of Syria bordering on Iraq. This happens to be near the base where the Iraqi based Iranian proxies are firing their drones into Israel. It is possible that some of the missiles crossed into Iraqi air space… ;-))
Very late last night several rockets were fired by Hezbollah into the Samaria (northern West Bank) area. One landed in an open area outside of Jerusalem. It did not trigger any sirens as it was well out of harm’s way. But one landed in Jordan in an uninhabited area southeast of Amman.
The Iranian proxy, Islamic Resistance, in Iraq took responsibility for a drone attack on the southern city of Eilat. The drone had to cross Jordanian air space which should prompt many questions in international circles, but doesn’t. Drones do not fly high and are therefore easily spotted by Jordanian radar systems. So why does Jordan permit the use of its air space?? Nonetheless, the drone was destroyed by a missile fired from an Israeli built patrol boat operating in the Red Sea not far from Eilat. Here is a video of the operation.
There are rumors reported by The New York Times that there are ongoing arguments within the Iranian heads of state regarding how to respond to the assassination of Nasrallah. From yesterday’s “Today’s Image” you might gather that Nasrallah was a personal friend of the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei who has gone into a private state of mourning. The new president, Masoud Pezeshkian, who seems to want to actually help the population of Iran, is advocating a guarded response in order to prevent Israel from launching any direct attacks against Iran. Leaders of the IRGC and other hard liners want to launch a significant attack against Israel. At this time it is not clear what will happen.
IDF/Government
Yesterday I reported on the annual report issued by the Israeli Central Bureau of Statistics. In my comments I reported that there was an increase in the number of Israelis emigrating from Israel in 2023, from about 5,000 to about 20,000. As I wrote, part of the explanation is that there was a change in the method for computation but there was a notable increase likely due to the reaction to the Judicial Reform protests and The War. Personally, I believe that eventually many of these people will return. Many who had to evacuate their homes in the south near Gaza or in the north near Lebanon, just decided to take the year off. We will see. BUT, in the same report the Bureau documented a large increase in immigrants coming to Israel during the period between the start of The War and now. More than 30,000 people came to Israel to make it their new home. Baruch HaBa’ah (Welcome).
Politics/Protests
As if in unison, the major leaders of the opposition parties in the current Knesset have called for the launch of a ground invasion into Lebanon. As you can see, no one here is talking ceasefire now… no one!!!! Included in this leadership is Yair Golan, leader of the combined Labour and Meretz Parties, representing the far left wing of the political spectrum. Unlike the absurd approach of the Western powers to their wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, you do not enable your enemy time to re-arm and re-group via a ceasefire when you have them on the run. A ruthless organization like Hezbollah needs to have all its inbound arms shipments blocked and an ongoing onslaught against its forces conducted until it has little choice other than to retreat to north of the Litani River. Not since the first few months of the war have we seen such unity of purpose and vision across the entire population in the country. Nasrallah and his puppet masters in Tehran have been declaring the destruction of Israel by 2040 (there is even a count down clock in Tehran). Why would anyone in their right mind give these blood thirsty, murderers time to regroup so they can kill more???
In a major political development Gideon Sa’ar, the leader of the four member New Hope Party, has joined the government coalition. Personally I find this distasteful overall, but it does have one upside. As you may remember, on October 17th I reported that there were rumors that Netanyahu wanted to fire Defense Minister Gallant and bring in Gideon Sa’ar along with his 3 other Knesset Members into the government coalition. I reported at the time that I found this a bit incredulous as Sa’ar was a prominent and leading member of the Likud Party, the party headed by Netanyahu. Sa’ar was tired of being discredited by Netanyahu and given trivial portfolios in successive government coalitions. I also thought then, as I do now, that replacing Gallant in the middle of the war was going to launch enormous protests in the street as he is the most popular and trusted political figure in this government. At this point in time Sa’ar is entering the government as a minister without portfolio. That means he will attend cabinet meetings, and likely security cabinet meetings, and will therefore have a voice in the conduct of the war. Most likely, the real motivation to join this government, from his view, is that the long term prognosis of his party is dismal. If an election were held today they could not muster enough votes to remain in the Knesset. So to save his political career Sa’ar enters the government.
But trusting any promises from Netanyahu regarding anything in the future is “nuts” and Sa’ar should know better. He has been the brunt of Netanyahu’s political machinations for years. It is my guess, but nothing has been disclosed, that Netanyahu must be making some vague promises about some future support to be his successor. But to my knowledge, when it comes to political promises Netanyahu never fails to renege each and every time. So in my opinion, Sa’ar needed this to stay in politics.
Netanyahu needs this to bolster his coalition. Each and every week, the leaders of the two extremist right wing parties threaten to leave the government unless their pet issue of the day is not met. This has caused Netanyahu endless problems, headaches and embarrassments. He has no one to blame for this other than himself for allowing them in the coalition. But this allows him to disregard many of their tantrums as he can afford for one of them to exit the coalition and the government could still stay in power. That is, in my opinion, probably the only good thing to come out of this deal.
So, one can see how this might benefit both of the party leaders. However, it totally disregards what is best for this country… at least in my view. Soon there is going to be legislation about the exclusion of the ultra-orthodox from the IDF draft. This is a huge issue in the country. IDF reservists have been called up and served more days in the past year than they have been released. I know some reservists that have been called up for the fourth time in a year. How can one get work done or complete one’s university studies like this? Yet more than 60,000 eligible ultra-orthodox get exemptions from the draft. This is not just and the Israeli Supreme Court has ruled such, demanding that the ultra-orthodox be drafted just like the rest of the population. If part of Sa’ar’s deal is that he will support the draft exemption, which he and most Likud members do NOT support, then he will have sacrificed his principles and the benefit of the nation to satisfy his own petty political career. I believe, but could be wrong, that in the likely scenario that this is how events unfold, the Likud Party will be brutally punished in the next election by large defections. Its base of support strongly believes in the drafting of the ultra-orthodox. And I cannot underestimate the importance of this issue in Israeli society today.
As you might recall I reported previously on the “Three Stooges” like antics of our current Minister of Justice Yariv Levin (a senior member of the Likud Party). He is responsible for convening a committee to select the President of the Supreme Court. That position has been vacant for a year now and has been filled by an acting President, who is a member of the Court. This numbskull thought that he could blackmail the court by refusing to convent the committee until he got the committee constructed of people he liked. So, the court decided to make the process easy as 10 of the 12 members of the court informed him that they did not wish to be considered as candidates. Among those half are considered conservative (right of center) justices. So “Curly Joe” decided he could outmaneuver the court by submitting all 12 members of the court as candidates, despite their wishes, in order to prolong and postpone the process. But now he has been out maneuvered as the legal advisor to the courts as well as the Attorney General who have informed “Curly Joe” that he cannot consider candidates who have requested that their names be pulled from consideration. We have Ministers in this government that behave like adolescents. It is embarrassing and sick.
International
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has authorized the US armed forces to reinforce its presence in the Middle East to protect its existing forces and facilities should Iran attack. He also voiced his objections to not receiving sufficient advanced warning before that attack on Nasrallah. I believe that this is just for public consumption. Israel needs to provide the USA the option of “plausible deniability”. Otherwise, it might appear to the world that the USA approved and sanctioned the operation. The word here is that much of the Pentagon was celebrating in the halls when they heard the news.
White House NSA spokesman John Kirby told CNN today that “All out war with Hezbollah won’t bring safety to Israel’s northern residents.” He is right. In and of itself such a war does not automatically bring safety. But neither does a 21 day ceasefire that enables Hezbollah to use the time to re-arm.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
More than anything else I have posted in the last couple of days, you should read this absolutely incredible article authored by a former member of the US Marines Beirut Battalion on what he saw years ago and now, courtesy of The Atlantic magazine.
Here is an analysis by former Israeli Ambassador to the USA, Michael Oren, on why Israel cannot agree to an immediate ceasefire. It is a 5 minute worthwhile read.
And you should read this report on young Gazan mother raising money from abroad to build a hospital near Khan Younis. Her efforts were successful. So successful that Hamas came calling to demand that she hand the money over to them as they insist that the construction of schools and hospitals is the business of the stupid foreign and UN charities. She refused so they killed her - with no less than 90 bullets. Take the time to view the video!!! And these are the types of heroic fighters being promoted by those smart US University students.