October 364, 2023, "The War"
My 270th post on The War
Today’s Image
Meet Hashem Safiedinne! His name is pronounced with the accent on the Ha, not Shem. For those of you that know Hebrew, that is an important distinction. Safiedine is expected to be appointed as Nasrallah’s successor to lead Hezbollah. He is a cousin of Nasrallah…. and like his cousin he enjoys the privilege of also being on USA’s most wanted list.
Casualties
There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the last 5 days.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israeli air space in the past 11 days.
Late this evening Hezbollah launched a 10 rocket barrage towards Haifa. Most of the rockets were intercepted by IDF aerial defenses. Some fell into the sea. There are no reports of damage or injuries. Earlier this evening barrages of 35 rockets were fired by Hezbollah in the Western Galilee. This afternoon Hezbollah claims to have launched a new type of missile they call Nour. They say that it is a ballistic missile. The IDF reported that a projectile launched from Lebanon landed in an open field. I guess Nour is not so ballistic.
Lebanon Operations
Just as I was posting this evening’s post, there are reports that Israeli tanks are crossing into Lebanon accompanied by intense artillery bombardments into Southern Lebanon.
A couple of you have asked me in emails why the IDF operations in the north against Hezbollah seem so sophisticated with incredible intelligence and precise operations, while Israel seemed so vulnerable on October 7. As in the case of Al-Qaeda’s attack on the twin towers in 2001, one could say that the problem was a “lack of imagination”. Since 2006 the IDF has been preparing in every dimension that it could for the next war with Hezbollah. Hezbollah has also been busy building up its forces and threatening Israel ever since the conclusion of the 2006 2nd Lebanese War (as we call it here). All the intelligence, reconnaissance and training was focused on what to do in the north. The assassinations and actions such as “The Grim Beeper” have been on the plans for years. In the first two weeks after the Hamas attack into the communities around Gaza, the IDF General Staff and Defense Minister Gallant pushed hard to launch a surprise attack on Hezbollah as the terrorists started sending rockets into Israel on October 8 without justification or provocation. But Prime Minister Netanyahu and his new War Cabinet Ministers (Benny Gantz and Gadi Eisenkot) talked the security leaders out of the operation in order to focus on Hamas. All the plans you see unfolding in the north now, were in place back in October just waiting for the green light, which never came.
On the other hand, while everyone could see Hamas training its combatants on a daily basis in advance of an attack, the IDF failed to imagine that they would attack how and when they did. Nor could anyone imagine how brutal and horrific that attack could be. Female IDF scouts monitoring the cameras mounted on the Gaza border fence reported that they saw unusual activity inside Gaza. But, Hamas played a good head fake as they openly trained in fields where IDF satellites and drones could view what was going on. So the reports coming in from the scouts the night of October 6, were quickly dismissed by their male superiors as just another Hamas head fake. No one imagined that Hamas would launch the way they did and when they did. While, IDF troops, as part of their regular training, practice urban warfare on model Gazan towns built solely for preparing the troops, the IDF was not quite prepared to encounter the vast expanse of tunnels nor the sophistication which Hamas employed to connect them and build armories, etc. inside. Finally, fighting in Gaza is 100% urban warfare with arms stored not only underground but also in every single civilian building in a densely populated city. It took the IDF about 1 ½ months to figure out how to deal with the tunnels and urban battles, once the troops went in. I do not think that Israel or the IDF will make a mistake like this again. And now we have much greater knowledge how to fight in this kind of environment.
All signs are pointing towards the imminent launch of an IDF ground incursion into Lebanon. The fact is that IDF special forces have been operating in Lebanon on a limited basis since about November, 2023. They have been gathering intelligence and executing small missions with very limited goals. It is not talked about much or reported in the papers here, but it has been going on. In the meantime, troops under the northern command have been training for a widespread ground offensive into Lebanon for some time. Most IDF divisions are assigned in the north at this point. Israeli papers have been under strict censorship rules regarding IDF operations in Lebanon. But you can read more details in this Wall Street Journal Report.
As I have said previously the tunnels built by Hezbollah in Lebanon are deeper and more fortified that those of Hamas. It may turn out that they are as long as Hamas’s tunnels as well. The soil in most of Lebanon is not sand like that in Gaza, but rock. So some of these tunnels were built with boring machines like those used to build tunnels for trains or automobile traffic. They have armories inside and land line communications linking the tunnels. Several of these tunnels were discovered by the IDF after residents in the northern communities reported hearing underground digging. Here are a couple of articles describing the operation, called Operation Northern Shield, dating form 2018 in which IDF special forces located more than 6 tunnels built by Hezbollah and crossing the border into Israel for the purposes of carrying out attacks like those of Hamas on October 7.
Southern Lebanese residents have reported that the Lebanese Army is withdrawing from its positions in Southern Lebanon as they see an imminent ground operation coming. This has been confirmed by a spokesman for the Lebanese Forces who said that the troops were pulling back 5 km from the Israeli border. The Lebanese Forces are distinct from Hezbollah. They have been trained and armed by the USA. But they do not do anything as Hezbollah is the military power in Lebanon. The IDF has declared several areas bordering Lebanon as closed military zones, also suggesting that a ground operation is imminent. The US State Department spokesman, Matthew Miller, said today that Israel has informed the US about a series of limited groups operations it is planning. The US has responded that it does not want to see a large ground operation that could trigger a wider war in the region and it does not want to see Israel hold Lebanese territory for extended periods of time.
Ultimately, that is precisely what will be required of the IDF despite US wishes. While certainly we can appreciate the geo-political ramifications of holding Lebanese territory, the total disregard of the International Community as it relates to Hezbollah’s violations of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and its obligations to remove forces to north of the Litani River suggest that no one other than the IDF is willing or able to push Hezbollah’s forces out of rocket firing range into Israel.
Meanwhile, the IAF has been active much of the day. Late in the afternoon they struck hundreds of Hezbollah targets in both southern and eastern Lebanon, including command rooms, weapon depots, rocket launchers and Operations facilities. One of those facilities was a major cache of surface to air SAM missiles stored by Hezbollah only 1.5 km from the Beirut Airport. Let that sink in. Hezbollah had a battery of SAM missiles near Lebanon’s major airport. Which aircraft was it planning on shooting down???
This morning IDF aerial defense systems intercepted a drone flying over Israel’s territorial waters in the far north of the country. A missile fired from a nearby IDF Naval missile vessel neutralized the Hezbollah launched drone before it could reach its target, our northernmost gas field about 80 km off our Mediterranean shore.
Another air strike inside Beirut, but no Dahiyeh neighborhood, was conducted by the IDF Air Force earlier today when it assassinated the top commander of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine PFLP (a competing organization to Fatah/PLO). Nidal Abd al-Aal was killed along with two of his top staff members, Imad Odeh and Abdelrahman Abd al-Aal. They were responsible for several terror attacks over the past few years on Israeli soil.
Some months ago I reported on a story issued by UN Watch regarding the senior Hamas commander in Lebanon under the payroll of UNRWA, Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin. el-Amin was the ultimate leader of Hamas in Lebanon. Today he was killed, along with his family, by an IDF launched aerial assassination in the southern coastal town of Tyre, in Lebanon. As early as January, the UNRWA Executive Director was directly informed that this senior member of his staff was a major Hamas commander. Here you will see a photo of him along with other members of his staff. And today, in response to the assassination and the admission by Hamas that he was a senior leader in their organization, Phillippe Lazzarini said:
I never heard the word commander before. What’s obvious for you today, was not obvious yesterday.
In any normal organization Lazzarini would resign in disgrace. But this stuff is a daily occurrence in the absolutely corrupt UN organization he runs. The guy was told about el-Amin and was shown documentation. Then he ignores it all, only to try and plead ignorance when the whole world knows. Nonetheless, all the European countries that withheld funding from UNRWA have now restored it. They are as corrupt as the UN, including Switzerland. And today, UNRWA responded to these reports with:
Fateh Al Sharif was an UNRWA employee who was put on administrative leave without pay in March, and was undergoing an investigation following allegations that UNRWA received about his political activities.
And Hamas issued this statement:
Fateh Sherif Abu el-Amin, the leader of Hamas… in Lebanon and member of the movement’s leadership abroad” was killed in a strike on his “home in the Al-Bass camp in south Lebanon.
If you want to help in eradicating this corrupt UN institution here is a petition you might consider signing. All this information was posted months ago when this story broke and was deliberately ignored by the UN.
Saturday night I reported on an assassination conducted by the IAF in Beirut on a target that was not made public at the time. Today, the IDF announced that they had killed Eid Hassan Nashar, a senior commander of Hezbollah’s manufacture/assembly of long range rockets and missiles. The short range rockets are completely built, assembled and fired by Hezbollah. When Hezbollah launched its attacks on Israel on October 8 it was estimated that they had more than 150,000 rockets and missiles in their arsenal. About 80% were locally made short range rockets. The others were long range rockets and surface to surface missiles. Those were imported from Iran and assembled in Lebanon or Syria. Nashar was heavily involved in these operations.
The IDF also said that it struck many caches of these medium range rockets able to hit targets 200 km away.
This afternoon Hezbollah deputy leader Sheikh Naim Qassem went on the air to publicly display that Hezbollah leadership was still around. His speech was televised in Israel, in Arabic with Hebrew subtitles. During the speech he was sweating profusely. Maybe his tunnel needed better ventilation. Or perhaps he is also worried about being assassinated? It is expected that soon Nasrallah’s cousin Hashem Safieddine will be announced as Nasrallah’s replacement.
Yemen Operations
The Houthis claimed credit today for downing another US made MQ-9 reaper drone that was engaged in a mission over Yemen.
The IDF posted a video of the refueling operation conducted with its jet aircraft enroute to Yemen yesterday. Here you can see it and read more about the operation. You should take the time to watch it… only 5 min. And in an unusual step, the IDF permitted a reporter from CNN to accompany the pilots of the refueling Boeing 707 tanker while it was on its way to Yemen.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
The Shin Bet (FBI like?) today issues in a statement that Iran has been actively attempting to conduct assassinations on Israelis inside its borders. One very visible example was the arrest of a single Israeli Moti Maman who was being recruited while he was inside Turkiye. Israel and Turkiye have diplomatic relations but it would not surprise me to see that end in the near future.
Syrian media reports explosions near its capital Damascus. No more information provided.
Aid
COGAT reports that 127 trucks of aid entered Gaza today and unloaded their cargo into the staging areas. From there 82 truck loads were picked up for distribution, nearly all by private aid agencies. The UN is still delinquent in delivering aid.
IDF/Government
Today, Prime Minster Netanyahu went on the air to deliver a speech targeted at the Iranian People. I thought the speech was well delivered and felt you should hear it yourself. Here is part of what he said. A version of the video was disseminated across the internet with Farsi subtitles:
Israel stands with you. Every day, you see a regime that subjugates you, make fiery speeches about defending Lebanon, defending Gaza. Yet every day, that regime plunges our region deeper into darkness and deeper into war. With every passing moment, the regime is bringing you — the noble Persian people — closer to the abyss. The vast majority of Iranians know their regime doesn’t care a whit about them. If it did care, if it cared about you, it would stop wasting billions of dollars on futile wars across the Middle East. It would start improving your lives. Imagine if all the vast money the regime wasted on nuclear weapons and foreign wars were invested in your children’s education, in improving your health care, in building your nation’s infrastructure, water, sewage, all the other things that you need. Imagine that. When Iran is finally free — and that moment will come a lot sooner than people think – everything will be different,” he asserted. “Our two ancient peoples, the Jewish people and the Persian people, will finally be at peace. Our two countries, Israel and Iran, will be at peace. When that day comes, the terror network that the regime built in five continents will be bankrupt, dismantled. Iran will thrive as never before: Global investment; massive tourism; brilliant technological innovation based on the tremendous talents that exist inside Iran. Doesn’t that sound better than endless poverty, repression and war?
Hostages/Ceasefire
US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said today:
Several weeks ago, we were quite public about the fact that we had presented a bridging proposal that tried to get both sides to ‘Yes.’ There were a number of implementing details that we needed to work out, but we were in a place where we were looking to present a further proposal that would bridge those remaining differences…. What’s happened over the past several weeks is that the mediators that discuss these issues with Hamas — Qatar and Egypt — have not been able to get them to engage at all. The reason you have not seen us put forward this [new bridging] proposal is we can’t get a clear answer from Hamas of what they’re willing to entertain and what they’re not willing to entertain.
International
Our favorite personalities are speaking their minds (actually first they need to prove that they have a mind, and intelligence) again. First up is President for Life of Turkiye Tayyip Erdogan who had this to say:
The UN General Assembly should rapidly implement the authority to recommend the use of force, as it did with the 1950 Uniting for Peace resolution, if the Security Council can’t show the necessary will.
What he means is that members of the UN should be authorized to use military force on Israel.
Then, next in line, is EU Foreign Policy Chief Josep Borrell who said:
Arms should now be silenced, and the voice of diplomacy should speak and be heard by all. The sovereignty of both Israel and Lebanon has to be guaranteed. Any further military intervention would dramatically aggravate the situation and has to be avoided.
And representing our great friends in France, their acting Foreign Affairs Minister Jean-Noel Barrot urged Israel not to undertake a ground invasion. He said:
I… urge Israel to refrain from any ground incursion and to cease fire. I call on Hezbollah to do the same and to refrain from any action likely to lead to regional destabilization.
I have to say that I do not know anyone who pays attention to what these people say. For 12 months they were absolutely silent while Hezbollah launched thousands of rockets into Israeli communities in the north without any provocation or justification. They speak up only when the Jews defend themselves.
The US announced over $300 million in aid for Arabs in Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank). As a tax paying citizen of the USA I resent this total squandering of funds to a corrupt kleptocracy that spends all the funds it gets in training and supporting terrorists.
And, hold on to your seats, here is a big surprise…. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemns Hamas for not allowing the International Committee of the Red Cross to visit the hostages in Gaza. The reality is that the ICRC never even bothered trying. They are the defendants in a law suit here in Israel brought to court by a legal team representing the families of the hostages. He said:
I’d like to condemn the fact that the Red Cross is not even allowed to visit those hostages. This is something clear in international humanitarian law. Hostages… are entitled to receive Red Cross visits. I once again strongly plea for the ICRC to be allowed to visit these hostages.
This evening Lebanon’s acting Prime Minister Najib Mikati issued a statement that Lebanon is ready to fully implement the 2006 UN Security Council Resolution 1701 and deploy the Lebanese Army south of the Litani River. While this statement shows a promising direction, he didn’t say that either the Lebanese Forces or those Forces with international help will replace Hezbollah in the south as Hezbollah redeploys north of the River. But it is a start in the right direction.
Well despite the outlandish statements coming from France and Spain, we do have some real allies in part of Europe. Today a German Foreign Ministry spokesperson said:
Hezbollah is of course a terrorist organization and it was obviously a meeting of the top leadership of Hezbollah, from which one can assume, even from a distance, that they were planning their further operations. So in this respect, there are also reasons to believe that the right to self-defense was exercised here.
And here is your laugh for the day. The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan’s Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi said from New York over the weekend that if Jerusalem agrees to allow the establishment of a Palestinian state on the pre-1967 lines that the 57 Arab and Muslim countries will guarantee its security.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
This article in Israel National News summarizes a more detailed article that appeared in the British Financial Times. It describes how Israel managed to penetrate Hezbollah’s communications and infrastructure. It describes an IDF unit 9900 that is focused on aerial reconnaissance analysis. That unit drafts many young Israelis with autism who have incredible visual skills and can spot unusual, tiny discrepancies in huge images. They also use AI a lot. I post it rather than the original article because the Financial Times has a very anal Paywall.
Here is an insightful article from The Economist discussing how the assassination of Nasrallah could reshape Lebanon and the Middle East. In my opinion, they are a bit too optimistic.
And if you can find the time you might watch this 15 minute video of a speech delivered by Yoseph Haddad to the Austrian Parliament. Haddad is a well known and respected Arab Israeli journalist.