October 365, 2023, "The War"
My 271st post on The War
Today’s Image
This evening Iran launched about 400 ballistic missiles targeting Israel. About half either blew up on the launch pad or dismembered en route. Two to three dozen were neutralized by either US or Jordanian forces. And about 180 reached Israel. Here you see the missiles crossing over the skies of Jerusalem. The top image shows the neutralization of the inbound missiles over the skies of Jerusalem. The second shows the missiles as they pass over The Temple Mount. Here you can see more videos and images.
My View - Dictators & Assassinations
Some of you have asked me how assassinating Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was such a great idea if he will just be replaced by someone else, perhaps even more fanatical. Here is my response.
Firstly, if one takes this line of thinking to a logical conclusion then no nation should respond to any attack on its citizens since hurting the enemy will only result in them rebuilding and retaliating. Unfortunately, this is the situation into which most Western Governments have cornered themselves, including the Biden Administration. The US/UK/EU response to the Houthis disrupting maritime traffic is a great example. How does responding to the Houthi’s interference with global shipping lanes by simply launching defensive anti drone missiles deter the Houthis?? They are launching attacks with the intention of sinking ships and killing crew members. Bombing their infrastructure, ports, power plants such as what the IDF recently did not only disrupts their operations in a significant manner, it also establishes deterrence. These types of actions show the Houthis that there is a dramatic cost to them of their murderous actions. The Houthis, and their masters in Tehran, will learn that disrupting maritime traffic bears a cost that they, over time, will not want to pay. The Jihadis need to understand that there is a cost to their actions and each time they will have to pay a price that damages them significantly. Israel, in retaliation for the April 13 launch of more than 300 aerial warheads targeting its country hit an aerial defense system not far from Tehran. Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis have no defensive infrastructure. This caused panic within the ranks of the Ayatollahs in Tehran. Now, they think long and hard about what they do and their consequences. Their entire military system is built around aggressive attacks against other nations. Think about that a minute…. All these Jihadi entities have invested all their money and energy in building a military infrastructure designed solely to attack, disrupt and kill. They are all vulnerable to attacks such as the one conducted by the IAF. They have no defensive systems. The Iranian SAM (Surface to Air Missile) battery that the IDF destroyed is antiquated, more than 30 years old. They have requested an upgrade from Russia, but Russia needs the newer systems to be deployed around the Ukraine. These dictatorships do not care about their populations. If they did, they would have built bomb shelters and defensive systems like those we have mastered here in Israel.
Secondly, I have found over the course of my life that people tend to think internally “that everyone thinks like me”. But, this is very far from the truth. People here in the Middle East do not think at all like you. Bear with me and I will explain why this is relevant. In so many of my conversations with friends and family back in the home country - USA - I endlessly hear, non stop, just give them their country and the world will be a great place. I will reserve for another time my thoughts on why that thinking doesn’t work. But for the moment let me explain that people here in the Middle East DO NOT THINK AT ALL LIKE THOSE FROM A WESTERN SOCIETY. Europe is now learning this the hard way as they see refugees they absorbed from the Middle East and Africa not absorbing and not assimilating. In this part of the world doing nothing is seen as weakness, a lack of resolve. And if you try to apply the simple principles of Western Society here and expect people to react like Americans you would be dead. So enabling people like Nasrallah to make their threats of destruction and then allow them to carry them out is a recipe for suicide. The next leader of Hezbollah, and there will be one, will be waking each morning and wondering if today is his last day on earth. Because, it just might be. This will affect each and every decision he makes. In the West, a good salesperson looks for ways that he/she can strike a deal that mutually benefits their customer while “closing the deal”. In the Middle East people think in terms of “A Zero Sum Game”. If I hurt you then I benefit from your pain. I am not interested in building a country for my people, I am only interested in destroying yours because doing so in a Zero Sum Game benefits ME. It is a different world here and you can’t apply rules and principles that succeed in a Western Society. Here, if you “turn the other cheek” it will get smacked.
Thirdly, in Democratic Republics such as the USA, Israel, much of Western Europe, Japan, there are systems in place for succession in the event of the death of the leader. President Johnson was sworn in as President within hours of President Kennedy’s assassination. Such succession plans are NOT generally in place in dictatorships such as those found, for the most part, here in the Middle East. Dictators are too afraid to designate the next in line as they might “butt in line” to prematurely assume their role. To make my point, imagine for a moment what would happen tomorrow should Vladimir Putin be assassinated. Who would assume authority in Russia? Do you know? I don’t know. And I doubt than 90% of the Russian people know. If that were to happen there would be huge arguments with the upper echelons of the Russian military and political leadership over who would take control next. There would likely be a lot of infighting, debate and arguing. Whoever emerges is likely to have to eliminate his rivals soon after taking power. This is what Putin did as he emerged to power. Then whoever emerges will have to prove himself to the military and the people that they are the right person. Otherwise, the army and people will not trust the decisions of the new dictator. All this takes time, a lot of time. And during this time there is a lot of chaos until a new order sets in. It is during this time that adversaries can act, catching the dictatorship off guard. It was American Political Scientist, Francis Fukuyama, who wrote in his book “The Origins of Political Order” (or maybe it was “Political Order and Political Decay”… I read both and can’t remember which one it was.) Dictatorships and Democracies ultimately fail as a political order. It is only Republics (e.g. USA and Israel) or Oligarchies (e.g. People Republic of China) that can stand the test of time.
Fourthly, assassinations of dictators disrupt relationships across countries and regions. Dictators value the personal relationships between individual leaders without trusting the fundamental underlying institutions. The strong relationship between the USA and Israel is not based on a single leader/s. It is based on the mutual respect between the societies and the alignment of values. This is not so in dictatorships. Russia aligns itself with Iran not due to a system of shared values or respect between their societies. It is a relationship built on an opportunistic mutual benefit seen between dictatorial leaders. Otherwise they wouldn’t be dictators. So all those relationships built over many years of trust between individuals is destroyed as a byproduct of an assassination. Supreme Leader Ali Khomeini has stated publicly how much he valued the personal relationship with Nasrallah. Will he trust Nasrallah’s replacement as much as Nasrallah? I doubt it. It will take years for the new Hezbollah leader to establish his credentials and prove loyalty to Iran. And what does Iran do in the interim? What happens after the IDF assassinates the next Hezbollah leader? How long will it take the Supreme Leader to build a new relationship? Extending this to the Russia analogy, all those other leaders in places like Belarus who have aligned themselves with Putin will wonder if the relationship is still intact. Their “agreements” were with a person, not treaties between countries. Yes, there may be a formal treaty between the two countries, but you get the jest of what I am saying. In entities like Hamas, Hezbollah, Russia a successor will need time, circumstances and incredible skill to build a reputation and trust.
In the aftermath of an assassination such as that conducted by the IDF on a dictator like Nasrallah there are incredible opportunities for an adversary to exploit. During the chaotic period no one knows who is in charge, who sets the strategy, who leads. I believe that Israel and the IDF see this opportunity now. I hope that we are able to exploit the opportunity in order to change the dynamics and order around us. This is not at all certain. The Biden Administration is blind to this, as well as most of the leadership in Western Europe. All they keep demanding is a ceasefire. And they only demand this when Israel and the IDF succeed. The speech that Netanyahu delivered yesterday, which you can view here, is showing how a leader can capitalize on opportunities provided by an event such as the assassination of Nasrallah. I do not know how effective this speech is or will be received by the citizens in Iran (a version of it has Farsi subtitles). And it is certainly a very long path to go from where we are now to see regime change in Iran. But he has laid out a vision of what the future might look like. And such a vision would have never been possible without the successful assassination of Nasrallah and all his top level command infrastructure.
The Biden Administration has been non-stop accusing Israel of acting against Hamas or Hezbollah without an end game or without a “day after” plan. Well, it is the Biden Administration that is reacting without a vision and without a strategy. For us it is clear. Ultimately, we need to see regime change in Iran. In the meantime, the Biden Administration continues to do what it can to placate Iran based on a totally misguided vision put in place by former President Obama, thinking that one could appease a dictatorial regime of jihadis whose vision is the total destruction of Western Civilization. This is not how one gains respect in the Middle East. And without respect here, there is nothing.
I list here several timely articles that I recommend you read regarding the aftermath of elimination of the Hezbollah leadership late last week:
Eli Lake, from The Free Press, describes the significance of Nasrallah’s assassination. The byline says it best “The best way to end a regional war is to win it”.
And here Gerard Baker really “nails it” in an Op-Ed in The Wall Street Journal. And the title says it all “Israel Defends Itself—and May Save Western Civilization”. I agree with everything written in this opinion piece.
And Jared Kushner, former advisor to former President Trump and one of the architects of the Abraham Peace Accords, writes this about the unfolding of events in Lebanon, including the assassination of Nasrallah. I am not endorsing one presidential candidate or another. But Kushner has a solid understanding of the Middle East, in particular the Gulf States and Israel. Here is just a snippet:
“But today, with the confirmed killing of Nasrallah and at least 16 top commanders eliminated in just nine days, was the first day I started thinking about a Middle East without Iran’s fully loaded arsenal aimed at Israel. So many more positive outcomes are possible.”
and
“The right move now for America would be to tell Israel to finish the job. It’s long overdue. And it’s not only Israel’s fight."
And in an X post you will find below this one you can read these wise words from Kushner:
“The philosopher Bernard-Henri Lévy wrote on X, “I keep reading everywhere that Lebanon is 'on the brink of collapse.' No. It is on the brink of relief and deliverance.”
And here is an Op Ed from the editorial staff at The Wall Street Journal entitled “How to Exploit Israel’s Success : With Hezbollah weak, and Iran worried, now is the time for the U.S. to add pressure”. Unfortunately, it is my strong belief from seeing this US Administration in action and knowing the advisors in the State Department that the Biden Administration will ignore this wise advice and act to the contrary.
Here is an OpEd from one of my favorite Israeli Military Analysts whose articles are sometimes translated into English. Ron Ben Yishai writes in Yediot Achranot newspaper, “Hey West, don't interfere - Israel is working - Analysis: Israel did the right thing because it cannot suffer anymore from the world's blindness ; Whoever wants peace must strike at Hezbollah while threatening Iran”
And for my last recommendation here is an analysis from Arash Azizi, a writer for The Atlantic. Its title is “ISRAEL HAS CALLED IRAN’S BLUFF: Despite the Israeli attack that killed Hezbollah's leader, Tehran has many reasons to exercise restraint.” You can find it here, but it is behind a paywall. If you can access Apple News you can read a free version here.
Casualties
There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the last 5 days.
BUT, today there was a terrorist attack at a light rail station in Tel Aviv-Yaffo. Two terrorists with M-16s opened fire on passengers killing 6 and seriously wounding 7 others. One of the terrorists was hit by security forces. But, both managed to escape. There is now a nationwide search for them. Here is a photo of the terrorists taken fro a security camera as they were caught firing into the crowd.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets launched from Gaza crossed into Israeli air space in the past 12 days.
The big news of the day is the penetration of 181 ballistic missiles targeting central Israel by Iran. According to reports they launched about 400 ballistic missiles, but about half either blew up on the launch pad or failed on the way. The rest of the missiles were neutralized by US military forces in the region. Jordan gave the US permission to take down some of the missiles over Jordanian air space. US Naval destroyers in the Arabian Gulf claim that about a dozen of their interceptors took out others. But most were neutralized by IDF anti-missile defense systems. Here is a video taken in Amman, Jordan as missiles were crossing their skies on their way to Israel. Lots of shrapnel fell over large parts of Israel.and an image of pieces of shrapnel that fell in the Palestinian Authority capital of Ramallah, about 5 km north of Jerusalem. And here is one large piece of one of the missiles that also fell in the Palestinian Authority capital of Ramallah, about 5 km north of Jerusalem. And here is a video taken of the results from one of the missiles that struck an open field not far from Tel Aviv. That is one big crater.
Unlike the April attack, the Biden Administration insists that it had no advance warning coming from Iran of the attack. But US military assets in the region informed the IDF earlier today that they were seeing, via satellite, a lot of activity in Iran suggesting that an attack was imminent. At least that is what we were told. But now it comes out that Iran warned several Arab states of the imminent attack and it is likely that one of them informed the USA.
It was reported that an Arab middle aged man identified as Sameh al-Asi living in Jericho, Judea (West Bank) was killed by falling shrapnel from one of the interceptions. Here you can see the shrapnel that fell in Jericho. Also, a young woman was injured by shrapnel in Tel Aviv. Other than these two cases, the only injuries were a 4-5 people who hurt themselves while running to a bomb shelter or experienced mild shock. There are also reports of light damage to a building in Tel Aviv. Other than some missiles falling in open fields and shrapnel falling from the sky there was no damage to anything in Israel.
Here is a video of the missiles flying over Jerusalem as they are being neutralized. You should watch it.
Flights were suspended at the airport for a good 2 hours, but have now resumed. We spent 50 minutes in the basement stair case listening to the explosions as the anti-missile defenses systems took out the missiles in quick succession. Here you can see screen shots of the warnings all Israelis receive on their mobile phones from the Home Front Command. I show them in English for your benefit.
Rockets, about 6, were also fired this afternoon from Lebanon by Hezbollah late this afternoon. One long range rocket was targeted at Tel Aviv, but landed in the sea. Earlier this evening a barrage of long range rockets from Lebanon tried to reach central Israel but were intercepted on their way without any damage.Early in the afternoon Hezbollah launched a 30 rocket barrage in the upper Galilee about 5 km from the border. Before that Hezbollah launched four of its long range missiles, Fadi-4, targeting the Glilot Base north of Tel Aviv. Two people were moderately injured without any physical damage. All but one of the missiles was intercepted before reaching its target.
And this morning the IDF intercepted a drone entering Israel’s territorial waters from the Mediterranean. It was down about 30 km from Israel’s shore.
Lebanon Operations
This afternoon the IDF launched another fighter jet attack on a building in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut. This time they announced the assassinations of the commander of the Imam Hossein Division, which is apparently a distinct different Iranian proxy that operates alongside Hezbollah. In the same strike the commander of Hezbollah’s 4400 unit Muhammad Ja’far Kasir was also killed. The 4400 Unit is responsible for the smuggling of weapons from Iran and its proxies into Lebanon. The IDF announced that Kasir was one of the dominant figures in the Iran-Hezbollah-Syria terror axis. The IDF has made it a priority in its operations to cut off the flow of arms and components used to assemble weapons from reaching Hezbollah.
As I mentioned yesterday, IDF special forces have been operating in Southern Lebanon since October, 2023. Their missions were limited to reconnaissance and retrieval of light arms stored by Hezbollah’s Radwan unit with the intention of using them in a ground incursion into Israel like the Hamas October 7 murder, rape, dismember frenzy. Well the IDF “came clean” today and publicly acknowledged what I reported and what many in Israel had heard over the past few months. Now there is a more expansive operation going from house to house in a region about 3-4 km in from the Israeli border, again recovering light arms that were stored in order to attack Israel. They are finding huge amounts of anti-tank missiles, explosives, RPGs, ammunition and more. The IDF announced that they expect this operation to last 2-3 weeks. This is what they have told the Biden Administration. The IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari released this video providing details of the mission, Hezbollah’s plans and the materials being found by IDF troops in the area. The IDF Arabic-language spokesman Col. Avichay Adraee released a widely circulated statement on X.com warning residents in Southern Lebanon not to return to their homes as they are being targeted if there is evidence of Hezbollah storing arms there.
HOWEVER, large numbers of military tanks on top of large semi trailers are making their way to the north. Tanks do not help search and recover missions that recover light arms. So, it is my opinion that a lot more “is up” than a short, targeted and light mission. One sends tanks if one expects a ground incursion. It is my opinion, without facts to substantiate it, that there is the intent for a wider scale operation in the near future. In fact, Saudi Arabia’s Al-Arabiya reports that IDF tanks have started entering Lebanon.
Last night IAF fighter jets struck weapons manufacturing and storage facilities in Hezbollah’s Dahiyeh neighborhood in Beirut.
Gaza Operations
This evening dozens of Arab suspects approached IDF forces patrolling along the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza. After warning them to return from where they came, the suspects continued to move against the troops. They then fired resulting in 3 dead.
Yemen Operations
The Houthis launched several naval kamikaze drones targeting two ships off the coast of Yemen, about 110 km from the port city of Hodeida. One of the ships was a fully loaded oil tanker bearing the Panamanian flag. One of the drones succeeded in striking one of the ballast tanks. This will affect the stability of the ship and will likely have to make way for a safe port where repairs can be made. In a separate drone attack a ship was targeted, but not damaged, further north on its way to the Suez Canal.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
In a truly unusual interview on Turkish TV former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told the interviewer that an Iranian Secret Service Unit was set up during his presidency for the purpose of targeting Mossad Agents operating in Iran. He said that the head of that unit turned out to be, in fact, a Mossad Agent. This is just like a scene out of Apple TV’s Program Tehran, produced here in Israel.
Iran has suspended flights at Tehran International Airport. That is probably a wise decision. And Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamaenei was secured in an underground bunker near Tehran. From his underground bunker Khamaenei released an image on his twitter account saying “Victory comes from Allah and it is close”. And a spokesman for Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corp IRGC said today, after the attack, that if Israel retaliates Tehran’s response will be “more crushing and ruinous”.
Iran’s new “moderate” President Masood Pezeshian issued a statement on his X account “In accordance with legitimate rights and with the aim of [establishing] peace and security in Iran and the region, a decisive response has been made to the Zionist regime’s aggression.”
The IRGC announced on Iranian TV that 90% of their missiles struck their designated targets.
Long lines have formed at gas stations in Iran as citizens fear a response from Israel.
An Iranian proxy in Iraq calling itself the Coordination Committee for the Iraqi Resistance warned both the USA and Israel against any further actions against Iran.
IDF/Government
The USA imposed sanctions against a group of extremists in Israel living in Judea/Samaria (West Bank). These extremists are known in Israel as “the Hilltop Youth”. They are often characterized by wearing a kip (head covering) that is knitted with a “beanie” on the top and having long payot. Payot are locks of hair that hang to the front of one’s ears. When violence occurs in Judea/Samaria perpetrated against Arab residences, it is often individuals from this, and similar, groups that are responsible. These extremists have minimal support from Israelis. And despite attempts, the police have attempted to arrest some but often the evidence is insufficient for convictions.
Eden Golan, Israel’s popular young singer who competed in the Eurovision, received a medical exemption from serving in the IDF but has asked to volunteer.
International
Shortly after that attack US Defense Minister Lloyd Austin spoke with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to discuss next steps. The
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer called Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and then Jordan’s King Abdullah to discuss the recent attack by Iran.
Our friends in German, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock, released this message on X:
We have urgently warned Iran about this dangerous escalation. Iran must stop the attack immediately. It is driving the region further to the brink of the abyss.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
In a rather unusual occurrence, a Lebanese reporter filed this report with the leading Israeli newspaper Yediot Acharanot about how Beirut civilians are viewed recent events.