October 370, 2023, "The War"

My 273rd post on The War

Today’s Image

In the category of “Missing Persons”, meet Hisham Safieddine. If you know of his whereabouts you should report the information to your nearest branch of Hezbollah. Your nearby drug dealers are likely to know how to find the local branch. This man was last heard from on Wednesday right before he went into a meeting with his staff dozens of meters below ground in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut. That was before the IDF Air Force struck the building above his underground bunker. He was expected to resume the role of Hezbollah Chief. But I guess that the job is still open now. Only Extremist Jihadis need apply.

My View - Micro Managing an Ally on its Conduct of a War

In this report from The Wall Street Journal entitled “Biden Sidelined as Israel Reshapes Middle East” the writers suggest that the Israeli leadership has been making moves in the Middle East recently often without consulting with the USA in advance. From what I know this writers due a fair job of assessing the situation. But honestly speaking there are reasons for this situation. Here is my opinion/view:

1. The USA has pulled much of its resources from the Middle East in deliberate moves to withdraw its involvement in the area. Just two weeks ago the USA announced that it will be withdrawing its troops from Iraq. Not saying that the USA shouldn’t do that, but if you do then others in the area will need to take the initiative.

2. It is felt here that Israel needs to provide the Biden Administration with “plausible deniability”. If the US Administration is deeply involved in each and every tactical decision then they will be labeled as complicit or even worse. Sometimes, not all the time, it is better to not micro-manage.

3. Quite honestly most of the advice provided by the US Army has been misguided. Starting with the preparations for the ground offensive in Gaza, the US sent a group of former generals commanding troops in either Iraq or Afghanistan. They told the IDF that under no circumstances should they send in ground troops into Gaza. Wrong!! There is no way we could have taken out the tunnel infrastructure just from the air. Moreover, taking it out by air strikes alone would have resulted in very high civilian casualties. Then, we were told that under no conditions should we go into Rafah. It would take 3 months to evacuate civilians and it would result in too many casualties. Unfortunately, this time the government heeded Biden’s demands to both his and our detriment as it extended the active fighting into the election period which he was trying to avoid. But ultimately, the 1 million civilians were evacuated in 2 weeks and there were no civilian casualties there.

4. And in Lebanon…. Amos Hochstein, the White House Envoy, spent endless numbers of trips between October, 2023 through August, 2024 shuffling between Washington, Beirut and Jerusalem trying to come up with a formula whereby Hezbollah withdraws to the Litani River in compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701 with nothing to show for it. Then, when Israel finally decides to enter Lebanon with ground troops the USA provides this great advice not to or at least to limit the scope of operations. The Biden Administration said it was fearful of mission creep. Well, without any strong military pressure on Hezbollah there is no way they will modify their positions. Israel must enable its residents to return to their homes. To come to some fictitious negotiated solution that leaves Hezbollah with its forces on our border, in tact, leads to just another war in a few years. And now, publicly deliberating on what Israel should or should not attack in Iran is just a tactical mistake for all kinds of reasons

5. Both the Obama and Biden Administrations have deliberately conducted negotiations with the fanatical jihadi regime in Tehran promoting the idea that accommodating their desires to avoid economic sanctions will lead to a mollifying of their aggressive behavior vis-a-vis its neighbors. It is possible that there was a deal to be made that would accomplish that, but with 100% certainty the deal concluded by Robert Malley under the Obama Administration and then with attempts to resurrect under Biden was a rotten deal. So, since these administrations (and likely by extension the possible Harris Administration) are likely to want to resume accommodating these ruthless terrorist wreaking havoc on the Middle East through their proxies, how does Israel know that the actions being promoted by the US are not actions intended to keep the Ayatollahs in power so they can continue trying to kill all of us here in Israel??

All this being said, we fully understand here that the USA is our strongest ally in the world. They are supplying us with aid and arms. Their opinions and positions count for a lot and we must integrate their strategic thinking when we make tactical decisions. And logically, there are times when our interests are not 100% aligned. We are worried about our survival, achieved sustained periods without active war, promoting our relations/trade within the Middle East and accomplishing all this while retaining our core set of values so we can continue building a just society. The USA has many other interests in the region. That includes the flow of oil and goods. The spread of democracy and human justice to parts of the world that need it. Solidifying alliances with allies in the region - Egypt, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain, etc.

Casualties

On Thursday the IDF reported the deaths of 6 more IDF soldiers resulting from the close quarter combat I reported on last Wednesday, in addition to Capt. Oster - (Z’’L) and Itkin (Z’’L). They include: Cpt. Harel Etinger - 23 (Z’’L), Cpt. Itai Ariel Giat - 23 (Z’’L), Noam Barzilay - 22 (Z’’L), Or Mantzur - 21 (Z’’L), Almken Terefe - 21 (Z’’L) and Ido Broyer - 21 (Z’’L). They were all in various special forces units and came to the rescue of a unit that came under heavy fire by a large number of Hezbollah forces attempting to kidnap a group of soldiers. They died in the firefight. You can read more here.

On Friday the IDF reported on the death of Capt. Ben Zion Falach - 21 (Z’’L) who died during fighting in a separate incident in Southern Lebanon. This brings the total number of fatalities during fighting in Lebanon to 9.

Yesterday the IDF reported the deaths of 2 IDF soldiers: Sgt. Daniel Aviv Haim Sofer - 19 (Z’’L) and Cpl. Tal Dror - 19 (Z’’L). Both were stationed on an advanced base on the Golan Heights when two kamikaze drones were launched by an Iranian proxy in Iraq. One was neutralized by aerial defense system, but the other made it through. It was the first time that an attack from this source made it successfully in to Israeli air space. The incident is under investigation.

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

For the first time in 15 days, 2 rockets were fired from Gaza reaching Israel territory. One rocket was intercepted and the second struck an open area. No injuries or damage.

On Saturday about 200 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Northern Israel. Some dozens of rockets were launched targeting the Arab village of Deir al-Asad in Israel’s northern area. Here you can see a video taken by one of the residents of the attack, including some of the interceptions by air defense. Unfortunately, in this video the building from where the video was being was hit by a rocket that made it through the defense system. Apparently, 3 residents were lightly injured from the attack.

On Friday more than 180 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Northern Israel. Half of them were fired within a two hour period triggering many residents to dash for their bomb shelters. Some of the attacks triggered fires in open areas. Most were in control within an hour or two after ignition.

On Thursday Hezbollah launched more than 200 rockets and tens of kamikaze drones into Israel as it was celebrating its New Year. A barrage of 10 long range rockets targeting the city of Haifa and its environs. All rockets were either intercepted or landed in open area. There were no injuries nor damage resulting from the strike. More than 85 rockets were fired into Israel’s Northernmost city of Metula. No reports of injuries. Much of this city has, by now, been destroyed resulting from the nonstop firing of rockets by Hezbollah. Nearly all the residents there were evacuated in the fall of 2023.

Lebanon Operations

As of end of Saturday, the IDF reports that some 450 Hezbollah combatants have been killed in the week of operations in Southern Lebanon. In his briefing he showed a video of a 350 meter long tunnel carved into the rock by Hezbollah forces with supplies and arms having the purpose of launching a ground operation into Israel. There was even a fully stocked refrigerator inside. On Friday, the tunnel was destroyed. You can see the video here. The cement mixers you see in the video are used to fill the tunnels with concrete. Unlike the tunnels in Gaza that dug into the sand, these tunnels were carved into solid rock and had to be filled with concrete in order to render them inoperative.

Also on Saturday the IDF conducted two assassinations near the northern Lebanese city of Tripoli. One killed a Senior Hamas commander Saeed Atallah Ali and the second in the Beqaa Valley in which Mohammed Hussein al-Lawis was killed. According to the IDF al-Lawis has been organizing terror attacks from within Judea/Samaria (West Bank).

As of Friday afternoon the IDF reported that its troops operating in Southern Lebanon killed more than 250 Hezbollah combatants in close quarters combat. Among those killed were 21 fields commanders, 5 brigade level commanders and 10 company commanders. During these operations it is estimated that more than 2,000 Hezbollah facilities have been located and destroyed. Photos showing some of the arms being recovered by IDF forces demonstrate the intention to launch a huge ground operation attacking into Israel by Hezbollah.

The IDF is reporting what they call “exhaustion” among Hezbollah’s combatants they are encountering during fighting in Southern Lebanon. They believe that this is due to the elimination of so many of the high and middle level commanders. I am not fighting and cannot speak from direct experience. But, I am more cautious in such circumstances. Hezbollah is a very capable fighting force and we should not underestimate it.

Reports from Lebanon suggest that Hassan Nasrallah has been buried temporarily in an undisclosed facility. According to these reports Hezbollah officials are saying that they prefer to wait until a more appropriate time. Personally, I think it is because they are worried that a public funeral will just present the IDF with an irresistible opportunity to eliminate more of Hezbollah’s leadership.

The IDF reported that fighter jets launched missiles near the Lebanese-Syrian border destroying a 3.5 km long tunnel that crossed the border underground. The tunnel was being used to smuggle weapons from Syria into Lebanon for use by Hezbollah. Along with the tunnel nearby buildings used to store the smuggled arms were also hit. And at the above ground border crossing of Masnaa related infrastructure was also hit. The IDF has made it a strategic imperative to continue hitting all the points where arms are being smuggled by Hezbollah and Iran into Lebanon. These strikes accompany directed hits against commanders of Hezbollah’s 4400 Unit responsible for the arms smuggling operations.

On Friday, the IDF conducted a targeted attack on a building in Southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood where the presumed successor to Hassan Nasrallah, Hashem Safieddine, was meeting with his staff. The IDF believes that the assassination was successful. There has been no confirmation coming from Hezbollah, but they do report that they have lost communications with their leader around the same time. Here is a video taken by Beirut residents of the missile attack on Safieddine. In a separate operation on the Dahiyeh neighborhood, the Hezbollah commander of communications Muhammad Rashid Sakafi was assassinated.

IDF fighter jets, on Friday, also conducted dozens of attacks on weapons depots, combatant facilities and rocket launchers in Southern Lebanon. As the IDF ground troops uncover facilities they report coordinates to the Air Force and they are subsequently eliminated.

On Thursday the IDF issued warnings to residents in two buildings in Southern Beirut’s Dahiyeh neighborhood in advance of strikes on both. Maps were distributed through the x.com feed of Col. Avichay Adraee, the IDF’s Arabic-language spokesman. Earlier in the week Muhammad Yousef Anisi, one of Hezbollah’s leaders in its precision guided missile project was assassinated in a confined strike by an Israeli fighter jet. Altogether the IDF said that it had conducted 15 targeted strikes on buildings in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut, including 2-3 on sites near the airport. All locations were either weapon manufacturing, storage or related facilities. In each case civilians were given advanced notice to evacuate. The IDF released this footage of the strikes on its official x.com feed. In addition, IDF fighter jets conducted a series of targeted attacks on Hezbollah positions in Beirut that housed facilities belonging to tis intelligence division including surveillance equipment, computer systems, observation terminals and more.

And operations continued on Thursday conducted by IDF infantry forces. In one instance members of a Golani division spotted a Hezbollah field commander and his staff taking shelter in a building in Southern Lebanon. The unit called in a drone airstrike that took out all the combatants. And ground troops spotted the commander of Hezbollah’s Unit staging attacks from the border with the Golan Heights area. According to the IDF Khader Shahabiya was responsible for the attack that killed the 12 children on the soccer field in Majdal Shams in July. He and members of his unit have been killed.

For the first time, on Thursday, soldiers from the Lebanese Armed Forces fired on IDF soldiers operating in Southern Lebanon. Apparently they suffered their first casualty in the fighting. The Lebanese Armed Forces were supplied with arms and trained by the US Army, on the presumption that they would assume responsibility for security in their country… which never happened since they left all military control in the hands of Hezbollah.

In a new sign of expanded fighting in Lebanon, the IDF issued warnings to communities in and around Nabatiyeh, Lebanon to leave their homes as IDF operations were encroaching on their communities. Nabatiyeh is technically north of the Litani River, but only 2 km north of the border with Israel.

Gaza Operations

On Saturday, an IDF drone struck a former UNRWA compound in the largely unoccupied city of Jabaliya in northern Gaza. Hamas had taken over the facility and was using it to plan/launch attacks against Israeli forces in Gaza and launch rockets into Israel. Warnings were provided prior to the strike to ensure minimal civilians in the area when the missile was fired.

On Friday the IDF reported that one of its drones fired a missile at an evacuated school in central Gaza housing Hamas combatants.

Back on November 15, 2023 I reported on how/why the Western Media delivers a deliberate, biased and distorted view of events relating to Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank). As you might recall I described an incident in which two Israeli reservists, out of uniform, had mistakenly taken a wrong turn ending up driving into the Palestinian Authority capital of Ramallah back in 2000. The two were taken into custody by the PA Police whose facilities were quickly overrun by Arabs bearing knives and axes. An Italian Reporter captured this image showing one of the rioters hands steeped in the blood of the butchered civilians, smiling and shouting “Allah Akbar” (God is Great) to a thrilled crowd. The reporter was immediately threatened with his life by the Palestinian Authority for publishing an image they did not approve and had to leave immediately. Well, it was announced on Thursday that the Arab shown in the photo Aziz Salha with his hands drenched in blood was killed today by IDF troops operating in Gaza. It took 24 years for justice to be rendered. He was taken prison in 2001 by IDF troops but was subsequently released in the 2011 exchange of 1,027 terrorists for Gilad Shalit. Yahya Sinwar and other nefarious terrorists were also released in that exchange.

It has apparently taken a few months to confirm but the IDF announced on Thursday that the de facto Prime Minister of Gaza was killed along with fellow Senior Hamas leaders. In all the three senior leaders of Hamas - Rawhi Mushtaha, Sameh al-Siraj and Sami Odeh - were killed in an air strike three months ago. They were hit while hiding in a tunnel in northern Gaza. They were the targets of the attack, but until now the IDF had no firm confirmation that they were hit. The tunnel in which they were hit had a fully fortified and equipped command and control center. Facilities existed that allowed the Hamas leaders to remain underground for months. It is believed that Mushtaha was Sinwar’s “right hand man”.

Yemen Operations

On Thursday the Houthis took credit for the launch of 3 drones that targeted areas near Tel Aviv. Two of the drones were intercepted by Iron Dome missiles fired by IDF missile patrol boats off the Mediterranean coast. The third drone landed in an open area. No damage nor injuries.

And in what I view as a new development, the US Military CENTCOM announced on Friday that it struck 15 targets in Houthi controlled Yemen intended to neutralize various military facilities of the Iranian backed proxies.

Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye

Lots of warnings and threats coming out of Tehran against Israel should it decide to strike back after the attack of more than 180 ballistic missiles earlier this month. Tehran issued vague threats that should Israel attack its oil facilities it might attack those of nations classified as “Israel Supporters” and Israel’s gas fields. Many of the Gulf States have sent messages to Iran that their countries are remaining neutral in the current conflict. For reasons I can’t understand nor explain, the Biden Administration seems to be conducting a public discussion over which targets are the most appropriate for Israel to attack in Iran. From my view, such discussions are not appropriate for public debate. Moreover, it seems to me that the more the USA appears associated with whatever actions Israel might take, the more vulnerable they will make their troops in the area. But this is just my view on the subject.

Assessments and reports continue to trickle in pertaining to the Iranian attack of 181 ballistic missiles at Israel. It turns out that a school in a community called Gadera, about 15 km due east from the Israeli coastal city of Ashdod, suffered a direct hit by one of the missiles that made it through the defense system. You can see a photo of the crater below:

I bet that you didn’t hear about the International Criminal Court convening a session or issuing arrest warrants against Iranian leaders for war crimes!!

And here you can see a photo and description of one of the missiles that struck one of IDF’s air bases. While there was damage to one of the hangars and machine shops, on the base there was no damage to any major assets, i.e. aircraft, landing strips, helicopters, etc. The Washington Post is reporting that at least two dozen of the ballistic missiles broker through the air defenses hitting three military facilities. Today, Saturday, IDF Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari acknowledged that several Iranian ballistic missiles managed to hit two air bases - Nevatim and Tel Nof. One of my wife’s sons served his tour of duty with the IDF at Tel Nof. He was not on the base at the time of the attack. Hagari said that despite the hits on the two bases, both were fully functioning without and loss of their operational competaence.

Iranian media reports that a consultant working for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp IRGC was killed in an air attack conducted by a fighter jet from some country when a neighborhood on the outskirts of Damascus came under fire on Monday.

On Saturday afternoon a drone belonging to some foreign Air Force struck an automobile near the city of Hama, Syria. So far no comments from anyone regarding who the target might have been.

On Thursday Syrian opposition forces reported a strike on a weapons depot near the Syrian port of Lattakia. Here are images and videos. This is significant from several perspectives. First, it is one of only two ports (the other being Tartus) that Syria has on the Mediterranean Sea. Second, it is showing that some foreign Air Force is taking seriously the flow of weapons from Iran to Hezbollah from many different directions. Thirdly, in return for assisting the Assad Regime in Syria during its civil war, Russia insisted on being able to use the port of Latakia for its own military purposes. But it is likely that Russia has withdrawn much of its facilities from this port due to the war it initiated with Ukraine.

In a separate strike in Syria on Thursday, a missile from a fighter jet from an unidentified country struck a building in the Mazzeh district of Damascus (Mazzeh in Hebrew means ‘What’s this’. I don’t know a lot of Arabic but my guess is that it is the same.). The target Hassan Qassir was killed. Qassir is the brother of the previously assassinated head of Hezbollah’s Unit 4400 that was responsible for smuggling weapons from Iran. You can read more here. Apparently he was also the son in law of Nasrallah. Here you can see images of the building after the strike.

IDF/Government

On Saturday, US General Michael Kurilla arrived in Israel to meet with Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi and their respective teams to discuss responses by Israel to the ballistic missile attack on Israel October 1.

On Thursday IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi started laying out how Israel foresees to keep its northern border safe for its residents in the future. He said:

To return of the residents, we must destroy the terror infrastructure that Hezbollah built near the border to raid our towns on the day of that the order is given and kill Israeli civilians. We are very determined to destroy these infrastructures and kill whoever is there… We will not allow Hezbollah to position itself in these places in the future. The severe blows to Hezbollah in all areas, in Beirut, in the [Beqaa] Valley, in south Lebanon, will continue. Our forces are ready and trained more than ever, loaded with experience from fighting in Gaza and their advantage in the combat arena is clear.

On Thursday, during the Jewish New Year, an Israeli wearing a tallit was found praying on top of the Temple Mount. It is forbidden, by agreement with the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan, for Jews to visibly pray there. Here you can see a video of the man being arrested.

Aid

Hostages/Ceasefire

And here is an unusual story coming out of operations being conducted in Gaza. As you might remember during the war with ISIS these genocidal maniacs conducted a massacre against one of the few remaining Christian populations in the middle east, the Yazidis living in northwestern Iraq, sandwiched between the Kurdish area of Iraq and Syria. During that period it is estimated that 5,000 of the Yazidis were killed and about 10,000 Yazidi women were captured then sold as sex slaves to ISIS fighters. Well, one Yazidi woman who was captured at the age of 11 back in 2014 was rescued by IDF forces in Gaza on Thursday. The woman, Fawzia Amin Sido, was returned to her family in northern Iraq through a coordinated effort involving Israel-USA-Jordan-Iraq. Here you can see a video of her being united with her family in Iraq. This Christian hostage was rescued by Israeli troops but 101 Jewish hostages from Israel and other countries remain hostages. And you can read more about the operation here.

In a report appearing in The New York Times, US officials are reporting that Yahya Sinwar has hardened his positions over a hostage/ceasefire deal and that no communications have emerged from his hideout in weeks.

Media

In the second instance since the start of The War, Israel has enabled foreign correspondents to accompany troops during its operations. In the first, CNN’s Nic Robertson was permitted to be onboard the IDF refueling tanker during its most recent operations against the Houthis in Yemen on October 1, 2024. And on Thursday the IDF invited Trey Yingst from Fox News to accompany ground troops on one of their early forays into Southern Lebanon and one of the major tunnels built by Hezbollah for the purpose of conducting attacks against Israel. I believe that there will be more of these with other media outlets. BUT, I seriously doubt that anyone from MSNBC, Al-Jazeera nor the BBC will ever be invited. Their reporting of events here have been so deliberate and obviously biased that they are pretty much persona non grata.

Protests/Politics

Families belonging to the Hostages and Missing Families Forum announced the cancellation of their nightly protests in both Tel Aviv and Jerusalem due Home Front Command guidelines restricting crowd sizes. They had planned on a special day of commemoration for the October 7 attack.

International

The ongoing double speak from France continues. Yesterday President Emmanuel Macron called for an arms embargo against Israel. This triggered a public rebuke from Prime Minister Netanyahu. In an attempt to clarify his position, Macron’s staff issued this statement from which I quote only a portion:

President Macron personally told the Iranian president of France’s commitment to Israel’s security. He reiterated that France would not allow Iran or any of its proxies to attack Israel and would always find us facing it if it resorted to force. There is an urgent need to avoid escalation of tensions in the region including the formulation of an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. It is in this context that the president calls for an end to arms exports intended for use in Gaza. We must return to diplomatic solutions. France is Israel’s steadfast friend. Mr. Netanyahu’s words are excessive and unrelated to the friendship between France and Israel.

This was in response to a statement issued by Prime Minister Netanyahu in which it was said:

Today, Israel is defending itself on seven fronts against the enemies of civilization. As Israel fights the forces of barbarism led by Iran, all civilized countries should be standing firmly by Israel’s side. Yet President Macron and other Western leaders are now calling for arms embargoes against Israel. Shame on them.

Our “friends” in Ireland are upset that the IDF has requested that the UN UNIFIL troops overseeing the Israel-Lebanon border remove themselves so they will be out of harm’s way. Overall their mission was to prevent Hezbollah from returning to operating south of the Litani River to ensure compliance with UN Security Council Resolution 1701. And we know how successful (NOT) that this was. But the UNIFIL force has succeeded on a few occasions during its many years of deployment to defuse a potentially situation that could have escalated into something more serious. But overall no one has any idea what these forces really do.

Our “good friend” High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (I guess in Europe the length of your title is inversely proportional to your IQ.) Josep Borrell accused Prime Minister Netanyahu of exacerbating The War and intentionally withholding aid from Gaza. He accused Israel of leaving warehouses of food to rot - “I have seen warehouses and warehouses of humanitarian aid piled up, rotting, that cannot enter when on the other side of the fence there are two million people who are dying of hunger or disease.” He has no clue as to what really happens or perhaps he is just a consistent liar. The reality is that food and humanitarian aid has piled up inside Gaza as the aid organizations cannot keep pace with the amount of inbound aid.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• You should take the time to read this and watch the accompanying video. It tells the story of sex slavery within Hezbollah.