October 373, 2023, "The War"
My 276th post on The War
Today’s Image
Meet newly promoted Major General Dan Goldfus and Major General Dado Bar Kalifa. Goldfus was the Brigadier General of the 98th division and in Tsanchanim (Paracutists). He gained the nickname “Lion of the Tunnels”. He led the IDF troops into Khan Younis, the most challenging battle that the IDF faced since the start of this war. He and his team went into the tunnels below Khan Younis to first learn about them and then to destroy him. Both of them have big futures ahead of themselves. Kalifa was Brigadier General and in Givati Brigade. Both were among the first leaders that went in the Gaza Periphery on October 7 without waiting for central command. Here you can see/hear Goldfus in one of the Khan Younis tunnels talking about hostages murdered by Hamas. His parents emigrated from South Africa so his accent comes from there. About six months ago Goldfus delivered this speech just outside Gaza soon after his men valiantly took Khan Younis. That speech was totally contrary to protocol and got him in a bit of trouble. But what he said is what 90% of the country was thinking.
There is a prevailing feeling that this and many previous governments failed the people. The morale in the IDF remains very high. When secular soldier had to fight alongside an observant soldier, all disagreements were swept aside. During their spare time they discussed and argued their differences but remained friends, understanding better their differences. This is the new generation emerging in Israel from this war. And knowing how much this and prior governments have created an atmosphere of disunity, Goldfus was just expressing the frustration he was hearing from his troops. There is an English term being kicked around here, Civilience. It is meant to imply that our society is built upon a civilian led society. Our governments are often disfunctional but the unity in this country with very healthy core values of its civilians is what is driving the success in this War and will drive us into the future. I firmly believe that once we get the fighting down to a very slow burn and the reservists can return back to their families and work, we are going to experience an Economic Boom that has never been seen before.
It is my hope, and I know it is shared by many, that the young men and women who showed their heroism starting on October 7 emerge to lead our government one day soon. It can’t happen fast enough… Amen.
Casualties
The IDF reports the death of Staff Sgt. Noam Israel Abdu - 20 (Z’’L) killed during close quarters combat in Northern Gaza, presumably Jabaliya.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
This morning two rockets were fired from Gaza towards the southern city of Sderot. Both rockets were intercepted. There was no damage or injury.
Altogether more than 180 rockets fell on Israel today. Late this afternoon the Northern city of Kiryat Shmona came under fire from a barrage of 25 rockets fired by Hezbollah. some of the rockets were intercepted, but some did minor damage to structures in the city. No injuries. Here are a couple of videos showing the aftermath of some of the damage.
This was on top of an attack earlier in the day of 85 rockets at Haifa. There was light damage in the nearby communities of Kirya Yam and Kiryat Motzkin, but no injuries. At around the same time as the major attack on Haifa, Hezbollah fired more than 25 rockets at the city of Tiberias along the shore of Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee).
Lebanon Operations
IDF ground forces report finding and destroying more than 350 unique Hezbollah facilities uncovered during its nearly two week ground operation in Southern Lebanon. They also claim they have killed more than 250 Hezbollah combatants. Yesterday alone 50 Hezbollah combatants were killed along with 6 of the top commanders for the southern Hezbollah forces. Those commanders include:
Ahmad Hassan Nazal, head of the attack sector in Bint Jbeil for the Radwan Forces
Hussein Talal Kamal, head of the Ghajar sector
Musa Diab Barakat, outgoing head of the Ghajar sector
Mahmoud Mus Karnib, operations chief for the Ghajar sector
Ali Ahmad Ismail, artillery commander for the Bint Jbeil sector
Abdullah Ali Dakik, artillery commander for the Ghajar sector
The IAF continues to strike Hezbollah facilities in Dahiyeh Beirut as well. Yesterday, IAF fighter jets conducted no less than 100 sorties destroying more than 120 targets. And that is just one day. The IDF Arabic spokesman, on his x.com account, publishes maps and schedules by which they are asking civilians to evacuate before a strike. Hezbollah therefore knows in advance before a strike will hit, but since it is mostly infrastructure being targeted, there is little they can do.
IAF operations this afternoon were also focussed on the location of the rocket launchers used by Hezbollah on the strikes against Haifa.
It appears now that the IDF is convinced that their strike last week was successful in eliminating Hashem Safieddine, the Nasrallah heir apparent. They believe that they also eliminated Hezbollah’s top commander of Intelligence, Abu Abdullah Mortada, in the same strike. It has been reported that Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force, was also present with Safieddine at the time of the strike. But no one is talking about it. It is my view that this is because it would be a major embarrassment for Iran and it would be an unnecessary provocation by Israel to make that claim.
And in yesterdays attacks in Dahiyeh Neighborhood the IAF appears to have assassinated Suhail Hussein Husseini, Commander of Hezbollah’s Logistics and a member of its Jihad Council, the highest authority in Hezbollah.
On its web site, the IDF today posted several videos of its activities in Southern Lebanon. Taken together they demonstrate incredibly clearly why ground troops had to enter Lebanon to find and then destroy the massive infrastructure built by Hezbollah with the intention of launching a massive cross border attack with Radwan troops into Northern Israel. All evidence shows that their plans were identical to what Hamas did on October 7 - kill, dismember, rape, burn alive each Israeli civilian they could find, then take as many back as hostages as they could. The site is in Hebrew. In particular I want to draw your attention to the video with the 19:01 time stamp, then the one right after it. You will see a small tunnel only about 300 meters long that runs underground across the “blue line”. It is not a formal border between Lebanon and Israel as technically the two countries do not have a Peace Treaty. It is an armistice line dating from 1948. But the UN recognizes it as a border. It was built in full view of UNIFIL troops stationed nearby. Here is a version in English with more photos and background.
Today Defense Minister Gallant and Prime Minister Netanyahu confirmed the assassination of Hashem Safieddine late last week in the missile attack on his compound below ground in Southern Beirut neighborhood of Dehiyeh.
As reported on CNN and many other international news agencies, in a televised address earlier today, Hezbollah’s Deputy Leader Naim Qassem said that its leadership and all its capabilities were intact while its brave fighters were pushing back Israeli ground incursion, despite the “painful blows” it suffered in the past few weeks. According to Qassem:
You see that our daily accomplishments are great. Hundreds of rockets and dozens of [drones], a great number of [Israeli] settlements and cities have come under rocket fire I would like to reassure you that our capabilities are fine. Our top leadership is directing the war and that the commanders slain by Israel have been replaced. We have no vacant posts.
But then in the same speech he said that the terror group supports the efforts of Lebanon’s Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri (Who, by the way, is the head of a companion Shi’ite organization to Hezbollah.) to secure a ceasefire, without any preconditions. It is interesting that on Al Jazeera they report on the part of the story that talks about how they are pushing back Israeli troops, but ignore the part about their request for a ceasefire. I guess that pleading for a ceasefire is just not becoming to Fellow Jihadis in Qatar.
Then after this, US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller, in his daily briefing, acknowledged that Hezbollah appears to be asking for a ceasefire. Miller said that the terror groups was “on its back foot and getting battered”. Miller continued:
For a year, you had the world calling for this ceasefire, you had Hezbollah refusing to agree to one, and now that Hezbollah is on the back foot and is getting battered, suddenly they’ve changed their tune and want a ceasefire. We continue to ultimately want a diplomatic solution to this conflict.
So now you will need to excuse me as I go through this rant…. This just shows once again that the Biden Administration and its Defense Department are doing whatever they can to prevent Israel from “winning” this war. Don’t get me wrong, when it comes to tactics like sending aircraft carriers, shipping arms, providing aid the Biden Administration has been a totally invaluable. Without it our situation today would be very dire. But what I am talking about is that while Biden screams at Netanyahu that he doesn’t have a strategy, it is the Biden that has no strategy. All he wants is a ceasefire at any costs so his party can make it through the November elections. Outside Israel, Biden and the European leaders castigate Netanyahu every chance he gets, claiming that he is obstinate and has no strategy. Inside Israel, Netanyahu is castigated because he talks a lot but doesn’t do enough. He was criticized for stalling the offensive into Rafah by most Israelis. Yet Biden threatened every chance he could get, in order to prevent the IDF from going into Rafah. That cost us lives and a precious 2 ½ months as during that time, Hamas continued to smuggle in arms through the Egyptian Border crossing. And the Biden Administration did what it could to prevent Israel from sending in ground troops into South Lebanon. But now we see that this strategy is working incredibly well. Yet most of the Israeli population, including the opposition parties, were pleading for an IDF operation in the north so our residents can go back to their homes. End of rant…
Now for the first time since October, people are starting to talk actively about how we can start planning for having the families go back to their homes.
And then we now hear in Israel that the US has entered talks with Iran and unnamed Arab states regarding a ceasefire on all war fronts. Israel has neither been informed, consulted or asked to be involved. I guess that the Biden Administration thinks that we are puppets. But they are wrong and so wrong on so many things… Nothing like snatching an opportunity for victory, just when one is making progress. Without the military pressure that Israel caused on Hezbollah the possibility of a meaningful ceasefire opens. But, if all Biden does is enable time for Hezbollah to rearm, all he will be doing is extending the pain of an extended war to all parties. Israel’s IDF troops cannot stop until Hezbollah moves all its forces north of the Litani River. Without that, we will have another war within a year or less. I heard a podcast just yesterday of US Foreign Policy experts saying that all this administration is doing is pushing for ceasefires that just push the problem into the near future when it ware will break out again.
IT IS MY VIEW that we should agree to a ceasefire when three conditions are met:
Hezbollah pulls back all its forces to the Litani River, while the IDF pushes to the southern side of the River. And Israel agrees that when a suitable International Force or a capable Lebanese Army is ready to assume control of Southern Lebanon, it will retreat back to the Blue Line. In the interim Israel promises not to permit any Israeli civilian infrastructure to be built on Lebanese soil.
ALL the hostages are released by Hamas. If Iran wants to save Hezbollah from being totally decimated, it must intervene and tell its proxy Hamas that they must release the hostages.
Within the framework of the full removal of Israeli forces from Lebanon, Lebanon agrees to a Peace Treaty with Israel along the lines of the treaty with Jordan.
I would settle for just 1 & 2.
Gaza Operations
As I reported yesterday, the IDF has initiated a major operation in Northern Gaza’s Jabaliya after noting the return of many Hamas combatants there, as well as rocket fire coming from that city. So far the troops have found many weapons and a large weapons storage facility. I do not know if it was missed the first time that the IDF entered the city or if Hamas just moved the arms there recently. In the course of uncovering and then destroying these facilities, the troops encountered more than 20 Hamas combatants and neutralized them. But during the course of these operations the IDF troops are reporting that at least one tunnel that they reported was neutralized previously was dug out by Hamas and is being actively used again. This is being investigated within the IDF and is a cause for concern.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
Today senior members of the Islamic Republic of Iran warned through a Reuters reporter that if any of the Gulf countries permit Israel to use its airspace to attack, they will respond accordingly against that country.
Syria’s state run SANA news agency reported that a foreign fighter jet struck the Mezzeh district of its capital Damascus this evening. According to Saudi news outlet Al-Hadath the target was a top Hezbollah official in the its Unit 4400 that is responsible for the smuggling of arms from Iran. That neighborhood is mostly occupied by Iranian forces. Here you can see a photo of the aftermath of the strike.
IDF/Government
Rafael Industries, one of the largest Defense Contractors in Israel, demonstrated about 1 ½ years ago a laser based anti aircraft based system married with a guidance system similar to iron dome that proved it could neutralize inbound rockets and drones. It is still not field ready. But in article appearing today in The Jerusalem Post, the company announced that it is demonstrating what it calls a “Lite Beam”.
The photo you see is a doctored image of what the system would look like when deployed in the field. In the article, the company states that the system has now been used in real field trials, without being specific. Apparently it will be showcased in a Defense Systems Expo taking place in Washington, DC in a week. Both the “Lite Beam” and “Iron Beam”, when fully deployed will totally change the economics of warfare for the IDF. It costs Hamas/Hezbollah about $800 for each rocket built. And it costs the IDF about $25,000 for an Iron Dome missile to neutralize it. Maybe Marjorie Taylor Greene was right and Jews have a Spaced Based Laser System after all???
Defense Minister Yoav Gallant was scheduled to head to Washington DC for a one day visit at the invitation of US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan. The main purpose of the trip was to discuss Israel’s response to Iran’s unprecedented ballistic missile attack last week, firing more than 180 missiles at Israel. But the Prime Minister asserted that the proper protocol would be that first he and President Biden should speak. It has been fifty days since the two leaders did not speak. In a way Netanyahu is right. But relations between the two leaders is flawed. I talk more about that below. In the meantime the Security Cabinet met and laid out its plans for how to retaliate. Netanyahu wants to present President Biden with what the Cabinet discussed and decided, in order to hear back from the President. But I am not sure that this is going to happen.
I am not a member of the Security Cabinet but like all Israelis I have an opinion on every subject, often more than one. So here is my view:
Hitting Kharg Island is a problem (to find out where it is you can search on Apple or Google Maps). It would not be hard for Israel to blow up and destroy Iran’s oil storage and shipping capabilities as they are concentrated on that island with almost no defenses. It would hurt about 65% of Iran’s oil exports and do major damage to its economy. That would seriously hurt the World Economy. It would not be too hard for Saudi Arabia to make up the difference. But if you look at a map you will see that Iran holds a very strategic position around the Strait of Hormuz. If it wanted it could seriously impact oil shipments going through that narrow sea. So even if Saudi Arabia could make up the difference, there is a risk of the tankers navigating through the Strait of Hormuz.
Civilian Infrastructure - power plants, dams, etc. - are a problem. The long term goal here is to promote Regime Change. Hitting these facilities would mostly harm innocent civilians, most of whom hate the terrorist regime.
Military facilities and barracks. This is the most likely target. Doing serious damage to the IRGC, perhaps killing many of its troops, hitting the missile factories/launchers would be the obvious things to do. It won’t hurt the civilian population and may even help the process of Regime Change. And most likely this is what will be targeted….
However, I think (as do many other Israelis) that we should target hitting their nuclear facilities as hard as we are able. I just don’t know what we can do. It is unlikely that we can destroy them. There are too many, spread out and most are very deep below ground. No matter what we do it will only postpone their program. But, remember when we took out Iraq’s nuclear facilities and then Syria’s they never bothered to rebuild. But Iran is a different beast. So, if the IDF thinks that they can do serious damage to the nuclear installation, enough to push back their program by 10-15 years… I think it is worth it.
Both former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and his former party co-chair Ayellet Shaked both came out today publicly saying that Israel should attack Iran’s nuclear program. It was not until Bennett was Prime Minister that an order to the IDF to prepare a plan for taking out Iran’s nuclear facilities was issued. So, it is my guess that there is a plan somewhere in the IDF to do this. The existence of the Bennett Plan was reported in an article published in The New York Times article today. And here it is described in greater length in The Jerusalem Post.
There is a large blowback against the police force’s recent arrest of an Arab Israeli woman from Nazareth who posted a video on her Instagram account showing her dancing in apparent celebration of October 7. The police, under the supervision of the right wing extremist Itamar Ben Gvir, made the arrest under orders on the pretense that the woman was preaching violence. You can see the short video here. She was apparently taken into custody blindfolded and will be held for three days. Most likely after that she will be released. While sane people would simply say that this was an overreaction, release the woman and call it a day… Our Minister of National Security Ben Gvir wrote on his x.com account “Zero tolerance for incitement and terrorism supporters.” As I have said before, it is my view that for this and related reasons this government needs to change.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Israeli TV Channel 12 reports that Qatari officials received a message from Sinwar insisting that he be granted immunity by Israel while negotiations are underway. I don’t understand that request and I see no reason why Israel would grant it. Perhaps a deal whereby he releases all the hostages in return for a guaranteed safe passage out of Gaza makes sense. But who knows. In desperate situations like this and when there is an absence of news, people make up all kinds of things. According to these same Qatari officials, they responded by telling him that his personal wellbeing is not the issue, and that a deal must be done and the hostages returned. And Qatar claims that it is threatening to freeze Hamas bank assets and will not assist in the rebuilding of Gaza unless there is progress on the deadlocked talks. Again, who knows what is real and what is not.
But after watching that report from Channel 12, I then read that Israeli security sources are saying that these reports coming from Qatar are not authentic, and the silence from Hamas remains.
International
United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres wrote to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, warning him that draft Knesset legislation to prevent UNRWA from working in the West Bank and Gaza would be a “catastrophe.” Well maybe he should gut the organization and replace it with a real refugee organization that does what all refugee organizations do around the world - assist them with humanitarian aid while finding places for them to live. If they are refugees then this is what is normally done. And if they are not refugees then they shouldn’t be getting aid from any UN organization.
As in any new book introduction, the best way to generate sales is to leak juicy excerpts to the media in advance. Bob Woodward, of Watergate reporting fame, has written a book called “War”. The book goes into great detail on what got said between Biden-Netanyahu conversations throughout The War. I have not read it, but reports emerging from CNN are claiming that the working relationship between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu is extremely bad. After IDF troops went into Rafah back in May, Biden called Netanyahu a “fucking liar”. Then after an IAF fighter jet assassinated a top Hezbollah commander Biden yelled at Netanyahu. I don’t understand. Hezbollah has killed more Americans than Israelis. And Biden seems to just want Israel to stand down. Why is he protecting Hezbollah???? Then in an April phone call Biden told Netanyahu that “Bibi you have no strategy”. Perhaps that is true. But what is certain is that the Biden Administration certainly has no mideast strategy other than trying to appease Iran. In Biden’s first six months of office he castigated Saudi Arabia for defending itself against Houthi attacks. And now we understand why Saudi Arabia is not motivated to interfere with the Houthis in Yemen. And regarding the entry of troops into Rafah, which incidentally totally proved that the USA has no understanding of urban warfare or what fighting in Gaza is like, he said about Netanyahu “He’s a fucking liar.” And then when the IAF assassinated Fuad Shukr, who was on a USA most wanted listed with a bounty of $5M and was responsible for untold terror attacks on American citizens and many others, Biden yelled at Netanyahu “Bibi, what the fuck?, You know the perception of Israel around the world increasingly is that you’re a rogue state, a rogue actor.”
The government’s appointed attorney assigned to interface with the International Criminal Court filed a submission yesterday to the court castigating prosecutor Karim Khan for failing to give Israel the opportunity to investigate the allegations before seeking arrest warrants, in violation of the a fundamental principle of the ICC’s founding charter. According to the reports it violates Article 18 of the ICC’s Rome Statute that governs court actions. The prosecutor is supposed to provide the country in question time to respond to his accusations and to take its own corrective action. Then only after documenting inaction by the accused party can the prosecutor make the request for a warrant. Seems reasonable to me, but I am not an attorney.
And in the category of “You just can’t make this stuff up”, today in Jerusalem (no less) French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot actually said, and to quote:
Today, to guarantee the security of Israel, to guarantee the security of the Israelis, the use of force must give way to the use of dialogue and diplomacy. And this is why France, like most countries in the world, is calling in Gaza as in Lebanon, for a ceasefire. And when we call for a ceasefire, we cannot at the same time provide offensive weapons to the belligerents. It is a question of consistency.
Yes, you read that right. The French are actually saying that the best way for Israel to guarantee our security in the Middle East is to lay down our arms. I am truly without words…. and just do not know how to respond to such stupidity.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Those of you following these posts for some time know that The Economist is one of only two publications I pay for as a subscriber. The other is The Free Press. Here is a solid analysis on what Sinwar and Hamas Leadership misunderstood when they launched their murderous attack on October 7.
And now that we see the USA leading ceasefire discussions with Israel’s adversaries without discussing with Israel, perhaps it is a good time to read this analysis from Eli Lake at The Free Press entitled ”Let Israel Win the War Iran Started”.
Speaking of The Free Press… Bari Weiss, its editor in chief posted this podcast as the first in a series reflecting on the events leading up to October 7 and then after. If you have the time it lasts about 40 minutes.