October 378, 2023, "The War"
My 280th post on The War
Today’s Image
Two days ago, The Economist updated this report on IDF forces moving inside Lebanon. The article itself is worth reading as it provides a lot of insight into what is happening. This map was copied from their article. It provides a view into just what is happening now in Lebanon. What I do not know for sure is the extent of the IDF ground troops operating inside Southern Lebanon. You can see the Litani River which parallels the Blue Line but separated by about 16 km. The UN Security Council Resolution 1701 required Hezbollah to place all its operations north of that River, which never happened.
Casualties
No casualties were reported by the IDF in the past day of fighting.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel today.
This evening 2 kamikaze drones were fired by Hezbollah. One struck the Israeli town of Binyamina, about 35 km south of Haifa. For those of you familiar with Israel, it is about ½ between Haifa and Netanya. IDF defensive systems did not detect the drone so no sirens sounded in advance. It must have been flying at an altitude below radar. More than 67 civilians were injured. Four people are in critical condition, five are serious and 15 in moderate condition. The second drone was intercepted. Soon after that attack, the IAF detected a third kamikaze drone flying off Israel’s northern Mediterranean coastline and managed to neutralize it.
Altogether it was estimated today that Hezbollah fired more than 140 airborne projectiles into Israel. Except for the tragic drone attack on Binyamina there was little report of injuries nor damage.
Lebanon Operations
There is a lot being said and done now regarding the UNIFIL troops along the Blue Line separating Israel from Lebanon. Two UNIFIL troops were wounded by IDF fire. Previously, the Israeli government requested that UNIFIL move its troops back about 6 km. But, it and the UN insist on remaining there. Hezbollah has been hiding amongst the UNIFIL positions intentionally in order to place the UNIFIL troops between them and the IDF. In this specific case, the IDF was in the middle of an evacuation operation of wounded troops and came under fire by Hezbollah from behind the UNIFIL positions. The IDF troops had no choice but to return fire. Otherwise two large squads would have been wiped out. Large anti-tank missiles were being fired by Hezbollah at the IDF troops. Two IDF soldiers were seriously hurt by Hezbollah fire and several more had moderate injuries. During the operation, two IDF tanks had to go into reverse gear and briefly maneuver into several meters into a UNIFIL position so they could change course. As soon as the wounded were evacuated the tanks quickly left their positions and moved well away from UNIFIL position. UNIFIL claims that the tanks were there for a total of 45 minutes. In order to assist the evacuation and block Hezbollah snipers, a smoke screen was created during the evacuation. UNIFIL troops claimed that some kind of poisonous gas was being used, not true. The IDF said that throughout the entire operation, IDF troops maintained full communications with the UNIFIL troops.
The UNIFIL troops are there with the mission of enforcing UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which requires Hezbollah to maintain its positions north of the Litani River. From the moment that agreement was signed back in 2006 it was never enforced and the UNIFIL troops are observers at the border and never reported on nor interfered with Hezbollah’s operations near the border. Throughout the past year while Hezbollah reigned rockets on Israel’s civilian population the UNIFIL troops did nothing. Now when being asked to move, they insist on not moving as if conspiring with Hezbollah to become human shields.
One of the three divisions of ground troops deployed to Southern Lebanon is the 146th Division responsible for covering the Western section of South Lebanon. This division, alone has neutralized over 100 Hezbollah combatants in the past week. During the course of the fighting they found dozens of entries to tunnels and underground bunkers. They found and destroyed 50 rocket launchers as well. In this report you can see a 3 minute video. It is a guided tour of one of the tunnels they uncovered and its destruction. You will notice that it, and most of the Hezbollah tunnels are carved in rock. That is the nature of the geology in Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon. It took them many years to carve these structures.
As reported in the past few days, IDF troops are finding enormous stores of arms in each and every home in many of the villages in Southern Lebanon. Here you will see a video of what was found in one home. You might notice that at 8 seconds into the 21 second video you will see a box marked with Hebrew letters. It says “120 mm mortar explosives”. Most likely this indicates that those arms were stolen from IDF storage facilities.
This morning, IDF ground troops found a 50 square meter (500 sq feet) underground bunker below a civilian home in Southern Lebanon. It was fully equipped with food, arms, beds, etc. The found a solitary Hezbollah combatant hiding there and convinced him to surrender. He has been detained to inside Israel, where he is likely to be interrogated. Here is a video of the episode.
There was a report on Israel Channel 12 news saying that Israel has listed its demands as part of a ceasefire in Lebanon:
Full enforcement of UN Security Council Resolution 1701 requiring Hezbollah to move all its forces and armaments north of the Litani River. It also requires Hezbollah to disarm and permit the Lebanese Army to assume control over security in the country.
International oversight preventing Hezbollah from re-arming by having tight inspections at the Syrian-Lebanese border.
Israel retains the right to act throughout Lebanon when it identifies threats against its territorial integrity.
This is, no doubt, a starting position for negotiations. It is hard to imagine securing agreement on all these points.
The IDF made a point of noting that its Air Force has not struck Beirut in 4 days. This was, according to reports, a part of an agreement between President Biden and Prime Minister Netanyahu during their recent phone conversation.
It has not been widely reported but it is now coming to light that many of the IDF aerial strikes in the Dahiyeh Neighborhood of Beirut were targeting branches of a bank called Al-Qard al-Hasan. It was started and run by Hezbollah. According to some reports with the destruction of these bank branches, Hezbollah is not able to pay its combatants their salaries. Those terrorists left their homes to fight and have families to support. According to David Asher, former US Defense and State Department Official “Hezbollah is in deep trouble financially”:
Lebanese bankers and Hezbollah financiers, who are the wealthiest bankers in the country and who can afford to travel, have fled to Europe and the Gulf, fearing they could be next targets because they provided help to Hezbollah. These Lebanese bankers, most of them billionaires, see the situation of Hezbollah is worsening and are not going to let it withdraw millions of dollars from their banks. They know that if they do, Israel will eliminate them, too.
In the same article it is being reported that IDF fighter jets are regularly patrolling the area around the Beirut Airport watching for flights that might arrive from Iran. They seem to be quite effective at preventing flights from Iran from landing with arms or cash.
Gaza Operations
Operations continue in Northern Gaza around the cities of Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya. Orders have been issued to the civilian population still remaining there to evacuate. It is estimated that there about 15,000, some of whom are Hamas combatants who having escaped fighting elsewhere are sheltering there. It probably represents whatever remains of the Hamas fighting forces. During the course of operations in Jabaliya, the troops located the rocket launcher used in yesterday’s launch of 2 rockets towards Ashkelon. While the IDF issued evacuation instructions to the small civilian population in Northern Gaza, Hamas terrorists are threatening the civilians with being shot if they leave.
Yemen Operations
The UN and several NGOs have recently seen members of their staff detailed by the Houthis for questioning under the accusation that they are spying for the USA and Israel. Specifically the accusations are coming from World Health Organization Chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreysesus, UNESCO head Audrey Azoulay and UN Human Rights Chief Volker Turk. Since the start of the Yemen Civil War in 2014 hundreds of aid workers have been taken captive and in many cases tortured while imprisoned.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
The USA has confirmed that Secretary of Defense Austin authorized the dispatching to Israel of a battery of THAAD (Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense) to assist Israel in any future missile attack from Iran. The system requires a support staff of about 20 trained US Army specialists who will be dispatched to Israel with the system. This system can defend a wider area than either Israel’s own Arrow 2 or the USA’s Patriot systems.
On September 27 when Nasrallah was assassinated by the IAF, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp General Abbas Nilforoushan was also killed. They were meeting deep underground in fortified bunkers. His body was recovered and a massive burial ceremony is scheduled in Iran.
The Middle East is always filled with rumors and conspiracy theories, more so than elsewhere. This time the story is about Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force leader Esmail Qaani. At first, it was rumored that he died during the attack on Hashem Safiedinne - Nasrallah’s successor. No one hear from him for awhile after that attack. Then, it was reported that he was whisked away from Lebanon to report to his superiors in Iran. Then it was reported that during his “interrogation” there that he suffered a heart attack. Now there are rumors that he has been killed by his superiors back in Iran. You can read more here.
So while we are on the subject of rumors in Iran, here is a report regarding an earthquake felt throughout Iran yesterday, Saturday. The rumors now are that it was an underground Iranian nuclear test.
IDF/Government
A survey was published in Israel today. About 40% of Israelis know a surviving spouse with a partner killed in combat. As you can tell this is a small country and everyone feels the impact of this conflict.
International
The recent incident involving the UNIFIL troops has prompted reactions, all negative, from leaders around the world. Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni spoke with Prime Minister Netanyahu today saying that harm to the UNIFIL troops was unacceptable. She also said that UN Security Council Resolution 1701 should be implemented and Hezbollah forces move north of the Litani River.
Lebanon’s Prime Minister placed a call with UN Chief Antonio Guterres saying that Lebanon “condemns (Benjamin) Netanyahu’s position and the Israeli aggression against UNIFIL”.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
I recommend you read this analysis by a reporter in Yediot Ahranot. It provides an excellent summary of the IDF Operations in Lebanon starting from the assassination of Fuad Shukr. When looking back you can see the full IDF strategy, which according to the author, even surprised the top Israeli military echelon to it success.
This report in The Washington Post is the result of leaked documents found by the IDF during its operations throughout the Hamas tunnel system. It shows how Iran knew in advance of Hamas’s plans and how Sinwar was demanding funds in advance of the attack. One does not leak documents like this to the US Press unless it go security clearance. Most likely the IDF is preparing public opinion for what must be a planned significant attack on Iran soon.
Here is a 15 minute interview of Haviv Rettig Gur by the staff at The Free Press. He has a great way of explaining the Middle East in ways that Westerners can understand. Here he explains how Western Leaders just “don’t get” the Middle East.