October 379, 2023, "The War"

My 281st post on The War

Today’s Image

This is the insignia of the Golani Brigade. They were hit hard yesterday when a Hezbollah kamikaze drone made it through the IDF defense systems, struck their base in the middle of the country killing 4 soldiers and injuring more than 40.

Excuse This Digression

One of you forwarded to me a report that appeared in The New York Times today. Based upon the questioning of 16 unidentified IDF soldiers and 3 identified Arabs from Gaza, the authors describe multiple situations during combat in Gaza when IDF troops appeared to have either encouraged (by compensating) or forced the Arabs in question to either enter a tunnel or an open area in which there was a possibility that there were hidden explosives. The intent was, according to the authors, to use the Arabs in question to detect hidden ordinance so an IDF soldier would not get hurt. The authors, in their article, say that in none of the cases they investigated was anyone killed or injured. The authors presented the evidence, based solely on testimonies from the soldiers and the Arabs, to the IDF. In response to the report the IDF told reporters in Israel, not updated in the NYT report yet, that:

The orders and instructions of the IDF forbid using civilians in Gaza who were arrested in the field for military missions. The orders and instructions are made clear regularly to soldiers in the field during the war.

The NYT authors went on to quote various experts saying that such actions would constitute war crimes. I am not a legal expert but it is my impression that to convict an army or government of war crimes it must be proven that there is a formal policy instructing soldiers to act in violation of the Geneva Convention OR if actions were taken in violation of a policy that forbids such actions then the individuals must be investigated and punishments administered if it is found that the accusations are valid.

First of all, I have good reason to doubt the journalistic integrity of The New York Times when it comes to objective reporting on Israel. The newspaper recently posted this guest essay. But according to forensic experts, the X-Rays posted show that the claims of the author/s are not possible. And you will find numerous discrepancies in the NYT article here as well.

If this NYT report is true, and I am not sure it is, then the actions taken by these soldiers violates the IDF Code of Conduct. Generally I have not been impressed with the lack of independence of reporting from the NYT. But, attached to the credits at the bottom of the article is an Israeli reporter, Ronen Bergman. I am familiar with him, don’t often agree with what he writes but I respect his integrity. If the IDF Code of Conduct was violated then the IDF should be launching an investigation. Each IDF Division has an attorney attached trained in International Law and the IDF Code of Conduct. Often they are drawn into the decision making process when a controversial target is being considered in order to voice their legal opinion. They, through normal IDF procedures, have the authority to block a specific operation. But obviously they cannot be present with each and every squad on each and every mission. I would hope that the IDF investigates these accusations as part of the overall investigation that will take place once the war quiets down. It is routine for the IDF, and certainly appropriate, to investigate what went right and wrong during a specific extended war. The country has done it each time. Did the US Army launch such investigations in Iraq/Afghanistan or the French Army in Mali or the British Army in Iraq? Do they all have International Law experts on call who can stop an operation, overriding the operation?

In the report some, not all, of the IDF soldiers were identified as members of an organization called “Break the Silence”. This is an NGO in Israel receiving money from foreign governments in order to find soldiers willing to speak against the IDF. They have been found, on occasion, to outright lie. But not all the 16 soldiers in question were members of this organization, at least according to the report. Having said that, the IDF routinely investigates incidents wherein soldiers have violated the IDF Code of Conduct and, as an Israeli, I expect this to be done in this case. One such case happened about 2 years ago in an operation near Hebron. A terrorist knifed a civilian, was neutralized and was laying on the ground without his weapon. An IDF soldier was found to have shot the terrorist AFTER he was disarmed. This violated the IDF Code of Conduct. The soldier was prosecuted and went to jail. The terrorist was injured but not killed.

But this segues into a related issue which I now feel compelled to write about. I started this Substack at the request of friends and family back in the USA on October 7. Initially, it was because I could not possibly correspond with each and everyone on an individual basis. But, I soon found out that what I was describing here was not being reported at all in either the newspapers or on the cable channels people were watching. So, I started reporting on a daily basis a description of what I read/view in the Hebrew and English Press here in Israel. Over time my readership has grown and numbers now over 500 people. It continues to grow every week. I do not advertise and I have no interest/intent to ever do this for money. When people stop reading these posts, I will be fine as I can go back to focus on other important activities in my life. I do this because I see that much of what you see and read in the Western Media is a distorted view of reality here. I try to not only report what is happening from the perspective of an American Israeli living here, but also someone who has a solid background in history and a reasonable understanding on how people think in Israel and the general Middle East, and can explain that thinking to a Western Mind. I started writing these posts, first on Facebook and then I moved to Substack. I never, nor do I now, claim that I am striving to be objective and provide coverage over all sides. If you do not like what you read here, you are perfectly welcome to stop subscribing. I won’t be offended. If you like and appreciate what I do, then perhaps you can recommend this Substack to friends?

As you notice I do not cover Arab casualties in Gaza. It is not because I don’t care. It is because I did not feel it part of my responsibility. This is something that the Western Press dwells on ad infinitum. There are plenty of reports in the Western Press regurgitating whatever numbers Hamas tells them. In my view these reports are totally biased. If they weren’t they would say something like “The Hamas Organization reports today that the casualty count has reached 41,000 in Gaza. The IDF insists that about ½ of those casualties are Hamas Combatants, suggesting that the combatant:civilian ratio is about 1:1. That is unheard of in any urban war fought to this day.” I do not believe the casualty break down provided by Hamas and reported all over the world, so I am not going to report on something based on “fiction”. There have been several mathematicians who reported previously on the incredulity of much of the Hamas reporting on casualties. I recently read an article in which a reporter claimed to have spoken to a high level Hamas official who informed him that nearly all, that is about 90%, of the casualties in Gaza are Hamas operatives and their families. According to the official, the dead women and children are relatives of the Hamas official. That does not mean their lives mean nothing but it could certainly go a long way in explaining how women and children have been killed. I did not report this because I could not find it substantiated anywhere else. And when someone quotes an unnamed official I get suspicious by nature. I chose not to report it because I do my best to avoid reporting on “fake news”. When I have posted something that I later found out was “fake” I have come clean as quickly as I could. This has happened twice the past year of my posts. This NYT article was also not substantiated anywhere else. But I felt compelled to include it in my post anyway.

Thank you for reading….

Casualties

The IDF reported today that 4 soldiers were killed in a Hezbollah kamikaze drone strike on an IDF base situated near the Israeli town of Binyamina, between Haifa and Netanya. The four soldiers are: Sgt. Omri Tamari - 19 (Z’’L), Sgt. Yosef Hieb - 19 (Z’’L), Sgt. Yoav Agmon -19 (Z’’L) and Sgt. Alon Amitay - 19 (Z’’L). Another 58 were injured, 40 of which remain hospitalized. The drone never triggered sirens. These drones have proven challenging for the IDF radar systems to detect. The soldiers were inside the base dining room when the drone struck. All were members of the Golani Brigade.

In a separate tragedy, Sgt. Koren Bitan - 19 (Z’’L) was killed during operations in Gaza’s Rafah area.

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel the past 2 days.

Altogether more than 100 rockets and drones were fired by Hezbollah towards Israel today.

A barrage of 3 rockets struck central Israel, not far from Tel Aviv, this evening. I am in Jerusalem as I write this post. One injury was reported - a 17 year old girl was hit with shrapnel and rushed to the hospital. It appears that Hezbollah deliberately targeted Tel Aviv. It is my guess that tomorrow attacks on Beirut will start again.

Earlier in the day a barrage of 15 rockets were fired into Northern Israel. They were either intercepted or fell in one of the open areas. This afternoon a barrage of 15 rockets were fired at the North Central Israeli city of Karmiel, about 25 km south of the Blue Line with Lebanon. Most of the rockets were intercepted. A 50 year old woman was injured by shrapnel and one car caught fire.

The IDF has launched an investigation into how the deadly drone strike killing 4 soldiers succeeded to pass through Israel’s aerial defense systems undetected. As part of the attack, 3 drones, 3 precision rockets and a large barrage of short range rockets were fired simultaneously. It is becoming increasingly clear that Hezbollah is testing various combinations of aerial launches to probe the IDF’s weak areas. This time they succeeded. From the arsenal launched by Hezbollah, one drone was neutralized by an Iron Dome missile fired from an IDF naval vessel offshore, a second neutralized by an Iron Dome missile launched from shore. All the rockets were neutralized. The third drone was spotted and pursued by IAF jets and helicopters, who fired twice in an attempt to down it before reaching its target. But, it dropped off the radar at about 90 km from its target and it was thought that it was downed.

Lebanon Operations

Prime Minister Netanyahu is now denying that he agreed to a moratorium on strikes in Beirut during his conversation with President Biden. That might be true, but the reality is that there have been no strikes in Beirut for nearly 5 days yet there are still plenty of targets left.

You have to watch this videos here. The first was produced by the IDF with the IDF spokesman narrating what they found inside an enormous underground bunker in Southern Lebanon. The second shows some things not shown in the first. It shows a newly discovered tunnel in Southern Lebanon, with barracks, kitchen, fully stocked refrigerator, showers, toilets and the motorcycles that were to be used in the announced (but never executed) Operation Conquer the Galilee of Hezbollah that was to mirror the October 7 attack by Hamas.

For the first time the IAF struck a building in Northern Lebanon. It was unusual because the target was inside the largely Christian village of Aitou. Lebanese media reports that the target was a Senior Hezbollah leader. They must have been successful. Soon after Hezbollah newspapers report that there are new martyrs from the attack. Apparently, families have been evacuating Beirut and renting homes in the vacation areas around the beautiful parts of Lebanon in the north, which is predominately Christian. Someone rented their place to someone bad. I guess you might call it TerrorBNB. Subsequent reports coming out of Saudi Arabia claim that the target was Ahmad Faqih. His role in Hezbollah was not made public, but the apartment was rented by the Hezbollah media outlet, Al-Manar.

Early this afternoon an Israeli fighter jet fired a missile assassinating a Muhammed Kamel Naim outside Nabatiyeh, a Lebanese village about 3 km north of the Blue Line with Israel. Naim was a senior commander in Hezbollah’s Radwan Unit in charge of their anti-tank operations.

At the beginning of The War, the IDF estimated that Hezbollah had about 150,000 rockets, missiles and drones. In a briefing yesterday to the General Staff Defense Minister Gallant and Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi claimed that between IDF strikes and spent firings by Hezbollah for the past year that only about ⅓ of their arsenal remains intact. I, for one, do not believe this. I think that this is optimistic thinking and a bit of overconfidence.

Gaza Operations

The IDF posted this on their x.com account. It describes the assassination of one of the Hamas commanders responsible for its drone production and paraglider unit, Samer Abu-Daqa.

The IDF continues to send SMS messages and dropping leaflets to guide Gazan civilians in northern Gaza, around Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya, to evacuate to the IDF set up humanitarian zones further south. But Hamas apparently is beating them with sticks to stop them. Or at least this is what this one Gazan told the IDF over the phone.

Last night the IDF struck a hospital in Deir al-Balah compound being used by Hamas combatants to plan and execute attacks on Israeli troops. Shrapnel from the strike spread and struck a few nearby tents where some civilians were apparently staying. At least one of them was on fire. Altogether it appears that 3 people were killed. It is not clear if those were terrorists or not.

Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye

In this Topsy Turvy Middle East anything is possible. Iran announced today that it is halting its indirect talks being conducted with the USA through intermediaries in Oman over the terms of sanctions relief. Both the USA and several EU countries have just re-instituted sanctions on Iran in the past two months. So is their Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi lying or are the EU/USA lying?? The US State Department did not respond. It is believed that this announcement was made in an effort to influence targets in the expected Israeli response to Iran’s 180+ missile attack on Israel in September. And just today the EU announced new sanctions imposed on senior members of Iran’s Military because they have been supplying drones and missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. I am getting dizzy….

Early this afternoon two drones heading for Israel were neutralized over Syrian air space. It is not clear whether they were launched by Hezbollah forces in Syria or came from some Iranian proxy in Iraq.

There are unconfirmed reports emerging late tonight that two Israeli tanks crossed into Syria this evening. I am guessing that either this is bogus, it was very brief or they are just positioned to fire using artillery when they see drones launched from Syria by Hezbollah.

Aid

I was not aware of this previously, but aid was not reaching those Gazan residents in the Northern part of Gaza. Actually, the IDF had asked the residents to evacuate due to ongoing operations in Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya. But today the IDF announced that the good situation was deteriorating quickly there and more than 30 trucks bearing aid entered the area from the Northern Erez Border crossing with Israel. COGAT published these videos of trucks entering with aid.

The World Health Organization has launched the campaign to complete the polio vaccination of all Gazan children. The first dose was delivered about one month ago. The organization received the medication from Israel and is administering it to all children, 500,000 of them. This was after one 10 month old boy contracted polio back in August resulting in one leg being paralyzed. No other cases have been reported. The IDF has coordinated specific hours of the day when all firing in specific areas will be stopped so the staff can complete the operation out of danger.

IDF/Government

A leader of one of the opposition parties, Avigdor Lieberman, issued a statement today accusing the government of frivolous spending while talking of raising taxes to cover the ever increasing budget deficit being incurred to deal with the war and the displacement of so many residents in the north and south of the country. This government, in order to arrive at the needed coalition agreements, created no less than 3 new ministries that didn’t exist before solely to make some Knesset Member happy. What he did not say is that in this period when all funds should be focused on the Defense Budget and dealing with all the displaced citizens, they are being spent to increase stipends to the Ultra-Orthodox and to create new settlements in areas of Judea/Samaria without a greater national consensus. That last part is my opinion and was not part of Lieberman’s statement.

Protests/Politics

Natalie Zangauker, the sister of one of the hostages and the daughter of one of the most active and vociferous voices among the hostage families, has been ordered by the police to stay away from protests for 15 days. She is shown lighting fires during recent demonstrations risking public harm and blocking major thoroughfares.

International

The situation with the UNIFIL troops remains. Today, Italy, Britain, France and Germany issued a joint statement saying that attacks on the UNIFIL forces are contrary to International Humanitarian Law and must stop at once.

Prime Minister Netanyahu delivered a brief speech from his office saying:

The charge that Israel deliberately attacked UNIFIL personnel is completely false. It’s exactly the opposite. Israel repeatedly asked UNIFIL to get out of harm’s way. It repeatedly asked them to temporarily leave the combat zone, which is right next to Israel’s border with Lebanon.

The Prime Minister of Spain Pedro Sanchez publicly stated today that other members of the EU should join it and Ireland it suspending their free trade agreement with Israel.

We have heard over here about the recent incident on the US CBS Television Network after a host of a morning TV program asked some questions of an interviewee regarding how he wrote about the situation in Israel only to be castigated later for not being DEI correct. And it sounds like the result of this is that CBS will no longer allow its staff to refer to Jerusalem as being in Israel. Last time I checked the USA recognizes Jerusalem as its capital. Its Embassy is just 2 blocks from my wife’s home, here in Jerusalem. This is no longer the network of Edward R. Murrow or Walter Cronkite. What a shame to see such a reputation and legacy destroyed.

And while we are on the subject of Media Integrity, I found this report in The Washington Post profoundly disappointing. President Biden and Secretary of Defense Austin have gone public in their demands on what Israel can and cannot target in its imminent operation targeting Iran. Then they accuse Israel of not briefing them in advance of a major operation, such as the assassination of Nasrallah. So then the Israeli government and defense leadership brief them on their ideas pertaining to an attack on Iran, and they intentionally leak it to the Press. Why don’t they just call up the Ayatollahs and tell them the coordinates of precisely where the Israelis will attack and the timing as well??? We already caught Chief US Liaison to Lebanon Amos Hochstein briefing Lebanese on Israeli operations. What kind of circus is this???

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• You might check out this video prepared by the IDF spokesperson’s office regarding its operations in Lebanon.

• Here is an on the ground assessment of the IDF’s operations in Lebanon. Most of the news is good. As the author notes, all of us were prepared for thousands of rockets daily, some of our critical infrastructure (e.g. power plants or water desalinization plants) destroyed and perhaps thousands of casualties.So far that has not happened.

• And here you can read about the economics and political impact of Hezbollah’s massive drug trade - and how destroying it would have a major impact on its ability to finance its operations.