October 383, 2023, "The War"
My 284th post on The War
Today’s Image
Three terrorists attempted to infiltrate Israel today from Jordan by crossing into Israel near an Israeli settlement adjacent to the Jordanian border. Two civilians from the village were injured by machine gun fire. IDF troops killed two of the terrorists. One appears to be still at large. We will wait and see how the Peacock Throne in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan reacts. King Hussein, when something like this happened, would express apologies on behalf of the Kingdom and insist on seeing the injured or attending the mourning. His son does not appear to care, or is worried about being assassinated should he show any sympathy.
My View (cont.) - What will Change with Sinwar’s Death?
In the near term there will be an effort to use this major change in leadership to affect a hostage/ceasefire deal in Gaza. Unlike what is portrayed in the media, many of the hostages are being held by families or entities with loose connections to Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Some, but not all, have selfish motivations. If they think that they will not directly suffer retribution from Hamas thugs, it is possible that for money and safe passage they can trade the hostages they hold. That is the opportunity. It is also possible that those few held by Hamas combatants might be also motivated by the same criteria. But that also means that the remaining political Hamas leadership living the high life in Doha will have little influence on a deal. He who holds the hostages holds the keys to a deal.
So, from my view, negotiations with the political leadership mediated by Egypt & Qatar, who are partially responsible for Hamas’s terror, is not likely to lead to anything. The real opportunity is for those families holding the hostages to reach out to Shin Bet. So I hope to see in the next few days a real effort by the Israeli Security leadership to broadcast a way for these families to make contact, verify that they are actually holding hostages through proof of life and that negotiations can ensue. That, I believe will be the key.
In the absence of that, the fighting is likely to continue in Gaza at the same low intensity that exists now. The IDF is now in a guerrilla war, one that will be fought at varying levels of intensity for many years to come, much like the guerrilla war we deal with in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) daily. At some point there will need to be some form of leadership in place in Gaza. Despite the small number of right wing fanatics here in Israel, there is no interest in Israel in re-establishing Jewish communities in Gaza that will be surrounded by 2 million Arabs. It is my opinion, that the government should inform the Biden Administration that a “reformed Palestinian Authority is acceptable” but it must meet these conditions BEFORE it is allowed to resume control of Gaza:
Its policy of paying terrorists for the deaths of Jews must stop, completely.
It must totally overhaul its education system by adopting something along the lines of the Arab Israeli curriculum or something from the UAE. For example, teaching kids how to kill Jews using knives laced with Rat Poison is forbidden.
Moreover, their schools must cease teaching that they will all return to living in Haifa, Jerusalem, etc. Their homes now are either where they live today or they can ask to be resettled in another Arab country. There are many other Arab countries that have plenty of room to accommodate them.
UNRWA must be dismantled. A real UN Refugee Agency must replace it that offers the Arabs living in Gaza, Judea/Samaria (West Bank) options for remaining or assist them in finding other countries. This has been what was done for all other refugee issues during the 20th and 21st centuries. Israel will no longer accept this notion that the Arabs in Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank) are perpetual refugees. They can sign a document saying that they accept the premise or ask to be resettled.
Funds provided by outside countries and aid organizations must have direct oversight on how those funds are spent. The rampant corruption must come to an end, including the inherent corruption of the UN itself. Rather than spending those funds on building a terror infrastructure or rewarding terrorists, it must be used for the direct social benefit of the population.
The IDF will retain the rights and ability to enter Gaza, when necessary and when intelligence shows an imminent terror threat or the regrowth of terror infrastructure in Gaza. This includes occasional inspections to see if tunnels have been built traversing the border with Egypt or coming close to Israel’s borders.
Israel must retain the ability to inspect goods entering Gaza from Egypt. That could happen on the Egyptian side of the border. I, for one, do not think it is necessary for Israeli IDF troops to maintain a presence all along the Rafah Corridor perpetually. Specifically, the use of metal piping must be prohibited, even for civilian purposes. They can use plastic PVC instead. This will preclude their ability to construct rockets again. Piping for water, conduit for wiring, etc. are perfectly fine with PVC.
A 1km “no man’s land” will be maintained around the perimeter of Gaza and inside its borders. The IDF must have the ability to see and have advanced warnings of any impending ground attack. It will also reduce the explosive balloon phenomenon that plagued our communities along the Gaza border.
And once these conditions are met, and not before, Israel will withdraw its troops and enable the development/recovery of Gaza. BUT NOT UNTIL THEN.
Now on to Lebanon…. The only acceptable formula there is that Hezbollah retreat all its forces to the Litani River and a reliable military force replace it. Until that happens the IDF should maintain military operations in the area. A reliable military force means one that is capable AND willing to prevent Hezbollah from returning. UNIFIL is capable but not willing. The Lebanese Army is not capable. No Israeli civilian facilities should be built or maintained inside Southern Lebanon, but necessary IDF military bases can be built as determined by the IDF, including potentially building them below ground. While it would be desirable to also demand that Hezbollah disarm, I think that it would be impossible for anyone to enforce.
Again, these views are mine alone and do not represent any formal Israeli Government Policy in any way.
Casualties
There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the past 24 hours.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel the past 5 days.
This morning a barrage of 15 rockets launched by Hezbollah towards the vicinity of the coastal (and ancient) city of Acre. Most were intercepted while some fell in open areas. No reports of damage or injuries.
A false alarm was triggered in the vicinity of the southern city of Eilat.
Lebanon Operations
The IDF said today that it has killed Hezbollah’s commander of forces in and around Taybeh today, Mohammad Hussein Ramal in an air strike. Taybeh is about 3 ½ km from the Lebanese Blue Line. The 3 IDF divisions deployed in Southern Lebanon continue to uncover hordes of sniper rifles, anti-tank missiles/launchers, rockets/launchers and more. You can read more here. So far, incursions into Lebanon by ground troops have limited themselves to about 3 km inside the Lebanese Blue Line. At this time, other than senior defense leaders and the government, no one knows whether the IDF will continue to advance further into Southern Lebanon using ground troops. The full distance to the Litani River is about 20 km north of the Blue Line. This article in The Economist does a fine job explaining the current status of operations inside Lebanon, revealing the huge arms and underground prep rooms that were to be used in a huge attack intended to be launched into Israel’s Galilee.
In an interesting turn of events, Lebanon’s Prime Minister Najib Mikati publicly rejected an offer by Iran to negotiate on behalf of Lebanon a ceasefire agreement based on UN Resolution 1701 that calls for Hezbollah to retreat to north of the Litani River, for the Lebanese Army to replace it and the immediate area north of the Blue Line to be demilitarized entirely.
Mid day today an Hezbollah kamikaze drone was neutralized as it crossed into Israeli air space.
Last night, Hezbollah issued a statement vowing to escalate the fighting in Southern Lebanon using a new type of missile. So far, nothing unusual has been reported by the IDF.
Gaza Operations
Following up on additional information regarding Sinwar’s death. He was found to have 40,000 NIS on his possession as well as a passport of an UNRWA teacher who has been in Egypt for the past few months. It is believed that he was one of Sinwar’s bodyguards. More details are provided here.
An additional brigade of IDF ground troops have now joined the operations inside the Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiya areas. Over the past day the troops have reported dozens of Hamas combatants killed in closed quarters combat. The IDF spokesman’s office has posted these videos of operations in the area.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
Three terrorists infiltrated Israel near the Dead Sea by crossing from Jordan into Israel. IDF patrols spotted the armed men who fired immediately at the troops. Two of the terrorists were killed and one is believed to still be at large. Before the troops could arrive the terrorists opened fire on a nearby Israeli town. Two civilians suffered mild injuries.
Iran has eulogized and praised Yahya Sinwar saying that his death will inspire a new generation of “freedom fighters”. Former President Obama’s Policy of appeasing these Jihadi Fanatics in Tehran is, in my view, beyond comprehension. They are practically the only entity praising this butcher. Not even the Arab Countries are praising the leader of this death cult. They are just saying nothing.
IDF/Government
An incident occurred in a field not far from the northern Samaria city of Jenin which has been a perpetual hot bed of Hamas infiltration and fighting. Reports from witnesses have testified that a deputy commander in the IDF allegedly shot and killed a 59 year old Arab woman, Hanan Abdel Rahman Abu Salama, who was picking olives in a field near a security barrier. The IDF has suspended the deputy commander pending a full investigation into the incident. I will try to follow this report and update it as the inquiry proceeds.
Aid
COGAT has updated its site with new statistics on inbound aid to Gaza. As of Wednesday this week the WHO completed the second polio inoculation of 93,000 Gazan children. On Wednesday, 104 trucks entered Gaza bearing humanitarian aid. Among those 28 truckloads entered Northern Gaza. As of now aid amounting to more than 530 trucks worth has accumulated and is sitting in the staging areas of Gaza waiting for distribution. Most the aid is getting distributed by private NGOs such as the World Food Program. The UN Agencies are useless. For those new to my posts, COGAT stands for Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories.
As pointed out above, the IDF is trying to encourage the civilians in Northern Gaza to move to the humanitarian zone as there is intense fighting in several towns in the north. But Hamas is using physical force to keep the civilians in place so they can use them as shields. You can read more here and hear a conversation between one of those civilians and the IDF.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Last night Secretary of State Blinken spoke with President Herzog about the death of Sinwar and the opportunities it might enable regarding the hostages. Blinken then spoke with the “mediators” in Egypt and Qatar. It appears that he may be coming to the area for the purpose of trying to get the negotiations off the ground again. In my view, I am not sure that this is the best way to get the hostages released as it is not clear who, inside Gaza, one would be negotiating with.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
In this report in the British publication The Telegraph you can read how Hezbollah heavy machinery and explosives to dig their terror tunnels all within 100 meters of UNIFIL observation towers. UNIFIL is not just useless, they are complicit in their cooperation with Hezbollah.
Here is a video describing, in better detail, Israel’s laser based anti rocket/missile defense systems that will hopefully be deployed in the near future. Sinwar had said that one of his motivations for moving forward with his October 7 attack was to launch it before these systems were field ready.
Here is a bit of background on Yahya Sinwar, why he was imprisoned in Israeli jails for so many years and the acts he committed leading to his arrest. Warning, it is pretty gruesome.
And here is speculation from The Economist on what impact Sinwar’s death might have on the Middle East.