October 384, 2023, "The War"
My 285th post on The War
Today’s Image
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his family were the target today of an attempted drone attack on his private home in the coastal city of Caesaria. Hezbollah launched 3 drones as part of the attack. Two were neutralized and one made it through aerial defenses. The third struck a building in Caesaria but not the Prime Minister’s. The government has taken the position that Iran bears responsibility.
My View (cont.) - The day after?
In my last post I laid out what I view as an appropriate response by the Israeli Government to the demands from the USA and others that we have a plan for the day after AND that it somehow include the Palestinian Authority. We have waited for 100 years and given more than ample opportunity for a responsible government to emerge from within the Arab Population in Gaza, Judea and Samaria. Every approach has failed because the fundamental basis for this conflict has nothing to do with states, land or rights. They had total control of Gaza since 2005 without a single IDF soldier or Jewish person within its borders. It could have shown the world how it could build an economy and a state which they could govern. But, they only showed how they could build a society of Jihadis determined to wipe out the Jews. The bulk of the Arab Population is bent on ensuring that we do not have a state of our own. But we cannot convince much of world of that. If, in fact, the requirements I laid out were met in yesterday’s post then the chances of arriving at two separate states in an atmosphere of respect might be possible.
But, one of you asked me about how I view a “Day After” Plan. The plan I laid out previously presumes that the PA can be reconstituted and with time create a society that is governable and has an economic basis. But that may never happen. In that case what is “Plan B”. So here is my vision of such a plan for Gaza….
Asking Saudi Arabia, the UAE or other moderate Gulf States to get involved is, in my opinion, a recipe for failure and might even risk our fragile and developing relationships with these countries. So here is an alternative….
The UAE has announced that it intends to invest heavily in creating a port, marina, resort area in El Arish. El Arish is an historical city in the Northern Sinai area of Egypt. It is only about 80-100 km from the Egyptian border with Gaza. Egypt is in desperate need of funding as its economy is in a shambles. In my view, the UAE could make its investment in El Arish contingent on involving the Gazan Population in its construction and operation. Workers from Gaza could be bused daily and perhaps even allowed to reside near El Arish so they can work there. There is an International Airport in El Arish. The Gazans should be allowed to use it. The UAE could easily make this a condition for its investment. A major hospital could be built in El Arish and the Arabs from Gaza could provide some of the staff. The currency of Gaza should convert from use of the Israeli Shekel to the Egyptian Pound. It is unlikely that workers from Gaza will be allowed back into Israel to work anytime in the future. So there is no reason for them to link their economy to Israel’s. Disconnecting dependence between Gaza and Israel works to the interests of everyone. While we wait for the PA to reform itself, the Egyptian Army can come into Gaza and provide police security and governance. The Egyptian Security forces would be equipped with the needed guns and rifles to maintain the peace. That may necessitate changes to the Egyptian-Israeli Peace Agreement. Israel’s only involvement in any of this would be to operate on the Egyptian side of the Gaza border to inspect goods coming in to Gaza to ensure that rockets, launchers, tunnels, arms, etc. cannot be built or smuggled in. Hopefully, this would not be needed after a few years. Egypt is likely to demand that Israel’s role would have a time limit. The UAE and Saudi Arabia would join in this investment. Also, they would assist in revamping the school curriculum inside Gaza so, unlike UNRWA, they teach a curriculum that does not involve the training of a new generation of Jihadis.
What is Egypt’s incentive in all of this? Money. They would secure investment from the UAE to develop another major resort on the Mediterranean, including a port. With the proper investments they could attract Europeans to vacation there, like they do in Sharm El-Sheikh. Many Israelis vacation inside Egypt along the Red Sea today as it is much cheaper than Israeli resorts in Eilat. Perhaps one day Israelis would vacation along the Mediterranean coast of El Arish for the same reason?? Arabs from around the Middle East might find it attractive, who knows. What does the UAE get? Hopefully, they see a return on their investment and a means for improving the lives of these residents. But, the Gazans should be required to give up their status as refugees. UNRWA should be disbanded….
Well this is my vision of how a “Day After” could look and how it could work. I do not see many alternatives…
Casualties
The IDF announced that two IDF soldiers were killed in combat today in Northern Gaza - Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun, Beit Lahiya: Staff Sgt. Ofir Berkovich - 20 (Z’’L) and Sgt. Elishai Young - 19 (Z’’L). Both served in the Armored Brigade (tanks). And an IDF reservists Sgt. Maj. (res.) Yishai Netanel Greenbaum - 38 (Z’’L) died today from wounds suffered in a battle with Hezbollah in Southern Lebanon that took place 10 days ago.
One civilian died from injuries sustained in a Hezbollah rocket barrage attack on the coastal city of Acre: Alexei Popov - 51 (Z’’L).
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel the past 6 days.
Late last night a barrage of about 20 rockets was launched by Hezbollah in the direction of Mount Meron, near the Northern City of Tzfat. One of them was intercepted and the others fell in open areas.
A kamikaze drone launched presumably from Iraq entered Israeli air space in the Golan Heights and fell in an open area without need to be intercepted. Later in the day a separate kamikaze drone launched from Iraq was detected heading for the southernmost city of Eilat and was neutralized by aerial defense systems (Iron Dome) before entering Israeli air space. This evening a third kamikaze drone entered Israeli Air Space in the Golan Heights. It was neutralized in the air.
This morning three drones managed to penetrate Israeli airspace from Lebanon. At the same time two rocket barrages consisting of some 55 rockets were launched by Hezbollah which is still probing how to overcome our aerial defense systems using techniques like simultaneous rocket and drone attacks. Two of the drones were intercepted. The third struck a building in the coastal city of Caesarea, where Prime Minister Netanyahu maintains his private residence. It was believed that this was an overt attempt to assassinate the Prime Minister that failed. The drone struck an empty building. The Prime Minister and his family were elsewhere for the weekend. The rockets targeted Haifa and its surrounding communities. Most of the rockets were intercepted and others landed in open areas. Nine civilians were injured from falling shrapnel. a home in nearby Kiryat Ata was directly hit and a car seriously damaged. The civilians were rushed to the Haifa Rambam Hospital. This video is showing the damaged car from a nearby road.
This coordinated attacks was soon followed by the launch of another 60 rockets by Hezbollah targeting the area further north of Haifa. A man from the coastal town of Acre was seriously injured while driving his automobile and was rushed to the hospital. Later in the day he died from his wounds as noted above.
Ron Ben Yishai, Military Analyst for Yediot Ahranoth, provides an outstanding and current examination of Hezbollah tactics regarding its combination of drone and rocket attacks in this article that I highly recommend you read. In it he remarks that the IDF has vastly improved its abilities to identify and then destroy the launchers from which Hezbollah launches its rocket barrages so they can be quickly destroyed. But, Hezbollah still has 1,000 drones left in its arsenal and continues to improve how it deploys them.
Lebanon Operations
There are very significant damages here, a whole chain of command is being wiped out. Hezbollah is hiding casualties, they are hiding dead commanders. We estimate that there are around 1,500 eliminated Hezbollah operatives, and we are making reserved estimates, I assume there are more, and we don’t know, from many strikes. These are very important achievements. The fact that they are surrendering says something about the morale situation, it says something about the level of combat, about their self-confidence, it says something about the quality you brought with you. They understand that this is it, there’s nothing left to do - back to the wall, and that’s the next stage. And that’s why I think the combat is very, very correct, it also sends the right message.
The Lebanese Health Ministry reported that two people were killed in an air strike from a fighter jet that hit a moving car in the area of Jounieh, north of Beirut.
The IDF announced that it struck and killed Hezbollah’s Deputy Commander of its Bint Jbeil District, Nasser Abd Elaziz Rashid. His superior was killed in a targeted assassination earlier in the week. This followed reports that IDF troops operating in the area located and destroyed many weapons including a Kornet anti-tank missile. In a separate operation, ground troops located tunnels and a major Hezbollah weapons storage facility in a school nearby. You can see videos here.
The IDF’s 98th Division, famous for its operations in Khan Younis, uncovered and demolished yet another major Hezbollah command center in Southern Lebanon. Many weapons, explosives and intelligence materials were recovered from the raid. The actual location was intentionally not disclosed.
In a separate operation IDF forces uncovered another Hezbollah tunnel that included a command center, weapons depot, rooms and motor bikes all intended for use in their “Conquer Galilee Operation”. They uncovered more than 50 separate entrances to this tunnel complex. It took over 100 tons of explosives to demolish the complex. Here you can see the videos of the destruction of the tunnel as well as read more.
According to Lebanese media sources, an Israeli fighter jets struck the town of Bailout in Eastern Lebanon, in the Beqaa Valley, killing four people. The IDF issued no comment to date. My guess is that we will learn more over the next day or two. Hezbollah controls the Beqaa Valley and uses it for the production, assembly and storage of weapons imported from Iran via Syria.
The IDF issued an evacuation order, using SMS messaging and posts on the IDF Arabic spokesman’s x.com account, for residents of three buildings in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut to evacuate as it was going to strike the buildings. Here is the notice that went out on his x.com account showing maps.
Gaza Operations
The IDF released a set of videos it had captured months ago but refrained from releasing. These videos show Yahya Sinwar and his family taking refuge underground right before the launch of the October 7 attack. And a video was released by the IDF showing how the building in which Sinwar was killed was identified and struck by tank fire before the drone video was taken. Here they are with a narration by Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, spokesman for the IDF. It is 20 minutes long and you should watch it.
One of the young recruits who was involved in the operation that led to the death of Sinwar recounts the events as they unfolded here. In Hebrew with English subtitles.
The IDF is finally experiencing success in seeing remaining civilians in Jabalyia evacuate so the IDF can operate in the area to destroy Hamas facilities. After enabling a safe, protected evacuation corridor more than several hundred families left Jabalyia today for the humanitarian zone. Here you can see images and videos of the civilians moving on Col. Avichay Adraee’s (IDF Arabic Spokesman) x.com account.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
On October 15, I reported on how deliberate leaks from the White House to The Washington Post were delivering details on information that the Israeli Government was sharing with the Biden Administration regarding possible targets to strike in Iran. At the time I sarcastically remarked that maybe the USA would provide actual positions and timing for the attack in the future. Well, I was being sarcastic but perhaps I was not wrong. You can read this report detailing how information gathered by US intelligence on Israeli preparations has been deliberately shared with Iran. Is this supposed to build trust between the USA and its presumed allies? I guess that depends on which ally you talk about - Iran or Israel. Absolutely disgusting. My opinion is that Israel should change its intended targets and not bother telling the USA since they can’t seem to hold a secret anymore.
Iran’s state TV announced that its armed forces participated in naval drills with forces from Russia and Oman in the Indian Ocean. In March, Iran, China and Russia conducted joint naval drills in the Arabian Gulf.
In an unusual event, Saudi Arabia TV reports that one of its offices in Baghdad, Iraq was ransacked and destroyed by a mob of 400-500 people after the studio broadcast a story saying labelling slain Hamas and Hezbollah leaders as terrorists. You can see an x.com post of the riot here. Since the event the Iraqi government announced that it is moving to suspect the TV Station, MBC, license to operate in Iraq. Where is the Association of International Broadcasting now? It only took them 30 minutes to issue a major complaint against Israel when it suspended Al-Jazeera’s license.
This is so strange I was not sure how to classify it and in which section to place it. According to this report from Agence France Presse AFP in Barron’s a senior advisor to Al-Qaeda is calling for Hamas to release the hostages. He praised Yahya Sinwar in his message but claimed that the attention given to the recovering of the Israeli hostages was overshadowing the fate of Palestinian prisoners being held by Israel.
IDF/Government
The IDF announced that it has launched an internal investigation led by the Military Police into a case of an Hezbollah captive died while in the custody of troops in Southern Lebanon. Here you can read a report on the incident along with obscene comments from this government’s Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, who heads the right wing extremist political party Otzma Yehudit.
Aid
Reports on one of the major Israeli TV networks reports that the Government has instructed COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) to enable the increase of aid trucks entering Gaza to a daily rate of 250 trucks per day.
With cooperation from COGAT, the UAE air dropped 81 pallets of aid again today.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Leaflets were dropped across most of Gaza, presumably by the IDF, in southern Gaza today showing a picture of slain Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar and the following message, in Arabic:
Hamas will no longer rule Gaza. Yahya Sinwar has ruined your lives. He hid in a dark tunnel and was eliminated when he attempted to flee in panic. Whoever lays down their weapons and hands over the hostages will be allowed to leave and live in peace.
Here is an image of what the leaflet looked like. This example was reported by Reuters, but its layout is different from previous IDF leaflets so it is not 100% clear that this was distributed by the IDF.
And in this same vein, former CEO of SodaStream, Daniel Birenbaum, released a video in which he is offering a cash reward of $100,000 to anyone who returns a hostage. He adds that it will be paid in bitcoin. Watch the video here.
Protests/Politics
Protests were held in Tel Aviv. A few hundred anti-government protestors that included these organizations - Breaking the Silence, The Binational Socialist Collective, Standing Together and Women Wage Page - staged a protest on the main thoroughfare in Tel Aviv, Derech Begin. They blocked traffic for a few hours. No violence or arrests were reported. As separate protest staged by the Forum of Hostage Families staged a separate protest in Hostage Square nearby in Tel Aviv.
Opposition Leader Yair Lapid delivered an address during the demonstrations in Hostages Square in Tel Aviv. In that address he said:
The Israeli government should now offer a lot of money and safe passage to anyone who will deliver the hostages into our hands and go for an overall deal, not in stages, to return them home.
This is the first time, in a long time, where I agree with the opposition leader.
Another opposition leader, Avigdor Lieberman, issued a statement saying that he calls on the government to:
demand that all democratic countries immediately condemn this attempt to harm the prime minister and his family… Now is the time to act and exact a heavy price from Tehran by targeting the country’s strategic facilities and military and political elite.
International
The Foreign Minister of Turkiye, Hakan Fidan, held formal talks with heads of Hamas’s Offices in Turkiye. He formally expressed his condolences over the death of Yahya Sinwar.
Later in the day Fidan met with Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi who is on a whirlwind tour of the Middle East trying to structure opposition to Israel. In his public comments the Foreign Minister of Turkiye accused Israel of “constantly opening new fronts in the region” and “trying to draw Iran into this war.” I could have sworn that a launch of 320 offensive aerial missiles and drones followed by a second attack of 181 missiles constitutes an act of war on the part of Iran. How is it that Israel is provoking a war when Iran has a countdown clock in Tehran ticking towards 2040 when it says it will have destroyed Israel?
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Israel this Tuesday right before the onset of Simcha Torah, the Jewish Holiday on which the October 7 attack occurred in 2023. His visit is intended to work on advancing a hostage/ceasefire deal. Israel appears to be his first stop in a multi-country tour.
I make note that outside of the Biden Administration and former President Trump, no other political leader in the world contacted Israel to express its regrets over the assassination attempt against Prime Minister Netanyahu.
European Commission Vice President Josep Borrell said today “Certainly after the killing of Yahya Sinwar a new perspective is open and we have to use it in order to reach a ceasefire, to release the remaining hostages and to look for a political perspective.” I find this surprising as I was sure he would provide a Eulogy for Sinwar.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is a report on where the IDF is succeeding and where it is failing in its ability to address the Hezbollah drone threat well. It includes interviews with a couple of startups claiming that they have good solutions to the growing problem.
In this Free Press Podcast, Barri Weiss interviews Trey Yingst, a reporter for Fox News stationed in Tel Aviv and covering the war. It is a bit long, 90 minutes, but Yingst provides a very important perspective on The War that is very sobering. I had never heard of this guy before as I do not watch Cable News at all. Try to listen if you can. You can find it here on Apple Podcast and here on Spotify. Personally I agree with much of what he says. Most of us living here do not envision a Peace ever in our lifetimes in the classical definition of “Peace”. It is my view that to achieve such a Peace the enemy must be fully defeated in their own minds. Firstly, when you are dealing with Jihadi Fanatics that is likely impossible. Secondly, to achieve that aim the killing and deaths of civilians would be so overwhelming that it could never happen in today’s world. On a moral basis I do not think we could survive as a nation should we ever have to conduct a war of that type. The last time this happened was with the US’s nuclear bombings in Japan and the allies blanket bombing in Dresden and other parts of Germany. It is hard to imagine that such mass tragedy could ever happen again and I do not think that Israel, as a society, could ever conduct such massive devastation. In the absence of such a “defeat” all we can hope for is many years of a low intensity struggle between wars such as the one we are dealing with now. The “peace” in Lebanon lasted 18 years. Maybe after this war, it will last for 20-25 years. Who knows?