October 385, 2023, "The War"
My 286th post on The War
Today’s Image
This was the scene at the Western Wall today. More than 100,000 Jews gathered to deliver and receive the Bircat Cohanim, Priestly Blessing. In the first two years I was here, back in 2010 and 2011, I participated in this incredible experience as one of Cohanim delivering the blessing. But the crowds are too much for me and I no longer go. Today, Jerusalem was a mess with visitors from all over the country… This year families of the hostages attended the event and a special prayer was recited for the protection and safe return of the hostages and all the IDF soldiers fighting.
Casualties
Today the IDF reports that Col. Ehsan Daqsa - 41 (Z’’L) was killed by a buried explosive device after he exited his tank during fighting in Jabaliya, Gaza. Daqsa is a prominent member of the Druze Community from the northern Israeli town of Daliyat al-Karmel. He is the highest ranking officer to have been killed since October 7. Daqsa was in one of two tanks that advanced to the front of the fighting in Jabaliya. They exited their tank in order to investigate the area and hit a buried mine. He is being Eulogized by prominent Israelis, including Prime Minister Netanyahu, across the country.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
A drone crossed into Israel’s Golan Heights early this morning and fell in an open field without damage or injury. The Iranian proxy in Iraq, Islamic Resistance, claimed credit for the drone. This evening a second was was approaching Israel’s Golan Heights but was neutralized over Syrian air space.
About 2 hours later a drone was detected off the coast of Haifa, heading toward the shore. It was destroyed by aerial defense systems launched from land.
Today Hezbollah managed to fire more than 200 rockets into Israel. This morning multiple rocket barrages launched by Hezbollah resulted in 70 inbound rockets. They were either intercepted or landed in open fields. Several fires were triggered by the explosions, but no injuries are structure damage. This was followed by 30 more rockets early afternoon targeting the very northern part of the country in the vicinity of Tsfat. All rockets were either intercepted or landed in open fields. Then another barrage rockets were fired late afternoon targeting gate Haifa area. No damage or injuries reported.
Lebanon Operations
Very early this morning the IDF issued warnings over mobile phones and x.com to residents of two buildings in the southern suburbs of Beirut, used by Hezbollah for storing arms. Two hours later IDF fighter jets struck the buildings. After the strike, the IDF announced that it destroyed Hezbollah Intelligence Command Center and an underground weapons manufacturing facility. In separate strikes the IDF killed three prominent Hezbollah operatives - al-Hajj Abbas Salameh, a senior member of Hezbollah’s Southern Front; Reda Abbas Ouda, a communications specialist; and Ahmed Ali Hussain, responsible for weapons manufacturing.
It has been reported that the IDF has developed a very sophisticated operational procedure that enables it to eliminate rocket launching facilities used by Hezbollah immediately after they are used, before they can be moved back into tunnels. The IDF dispatched fighter jets multiple times today to destroy those launchers used in todays series of attacks.
On October 13, I reported that the IDF had started targeting branches of a bank called Al-Qard al-Hasan in Lebanon as it was the formal bank used for Hezbollah money laundering, drug operations and paying its network of terrorists. Well it now looks like the IDF is launching an overall campaign to extend these strikes to much of Hezbollah’s financial and civil organizations, most of which are front organizations for smuggling operations. Warnings are being issued to nearby residents hours in advance of a strike. The goal here is to destroy Hezbollah’s ability to finance its entire operations and infrastructure. This appears to be the first such strike.
An Emerati based media outlet reports that Hezbollah’s Depute Secretary General Naim Qassem was flown to Tehran two weeks ago where he now resides. He was evacuated on the same flight as Iran’s Foreign Minister on October 5. All his speeches are now being delivered from Iran. I guess there is no longer any ambiguity on who pulls the puppet strings anymore. I wonder if he is staying in that IRGC visitor’s residence where Haniyeh stayed when he was assassinated.
Gaza Operations
During fighting in the northern Gaza City of Beit Layhiya, an IDF air strike hit a multi-floor building being used by Hamas combatants for storing arms and as a command/control facility. Hamas is claiming that 73 people were killed in the strike. The IDF contends that the number is much higher than there estimates and that they are investigating. Normally in these strikes the IDF maintains surveillance on the facility for a few hours prior to the strike. This is to ensure that there are minimal numbers of civilians in the facility and so they can get an accurate count of the combatants. When Hamas issues numbers for dead or injured they do not differentiate between Hamas combatants and civilians.
The story has emerged that in the video of Sinwar entering the tunnels with his family on October 6, his wife was carrying a Hermes Birkin handbag which is worth $32,000. Honestly, I do not know if the bag is counterfeit or real.
Yemen Operations
Since the USA dispatched B-2 bombers and delivered bunker busting bombs on the Houthi underground storage and assembly facilities, things have been pretty quiet around Yemen.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
Here is a strange story. Using one of those simple, cheap drones someone tried to smuggle hand guns and bullet magazines across the Egyptian border with Israel. The border is long but is equipped with surveillance cameras across its entirety. One of the cameras spotted the drone, then IDF soldiers fired on it using ordinary rifles and brought it down. Before that fence with the cameras went up about 10 years ago smuggling across that border was rampant - African refugees, drugs, arms, etc. The fence went up initially to halt all the human trafficking going on. And it worked very well almost eliminating the cross border smuggling in its entirety.
IDF/Government
Based on the interrogations of the captured Hezbollah Radwan Forces, Defense Minister Gallant tells the IDF troops operating in Southern Lebanon that the Hezbollah forces are collapsing:
The prisoners tell us what’s happening, that they’re terrified because they know that they don’t have what it takes to deal with what’s happening. Not in terms of strength, combat ability, precision or determination. This whole great formation they call Hezbollah is collapsing.
I always get alarmed when armies show overconfidence when it comes to dealing with a guerrilla type force. Perhaps because I grew up listening to reports on the nightly news of events going on in Vietnam.
Aid
As of today some 260,000 children in Gaza have received the second dose of the polio vaccination campaign conducted by the WHO and UNICEF with support and vaccines supplied by the IDF. At this rate, the campaign should be completed by a week from now. There was not an update from COGAT on truck deliveries from the 250 trucks entering Gaza yesterday.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Yesterday I reported that former SodaStream Founder/CEO Daniel Birenbaum has offered a $100,000 reward to whoever returns living hostages held in Gaza. Word is that they have been inundated with responses and Israeli Intelligence units are helping sort through them to try and determine what is real and what is not. Check this out.
Protests/Politics
There is an internal “brouhaha” here as Netanyahu’s Likud Party is issuing loud statements blaming opposition leaders for not being sufficiently sympathetic to the fact that an attempt was made on the Prime Minister’s life. Both opposition leader Yair Lapid and National Unity Party head Benny Gantz both expressed concerns publicly and said that this attack crossed the lines. But I guess those weren’t strong enough statements to satisfy the Likud Party.
International
Yesterday I reported on the Biden Administration’s leak of sensitive intelligence regarding Israel’s targets against Iran in its imminent attack. It appears that they were leaked from a specific Pentagon Office in which Ariadne Tabatabei works. Tabatabei is a confirmed Iranian Spy. She used to work in the office of Robert Malley. Malley was the chief negotiator for former President Obama and current President Biden in the JCPOA negotiations with Iran. That’s right Malley and his assistant, who were conducting negotiations with Iran on behalf of the USA were in fact acting explicitly on behalf of the Islamic Republic. Malley was subsequently fired. But now he has an academic position at Princeton University. Tabatabei was supposed to be fired but she turned up in the Pentagon. You really couldn’t make this stuff up. The total bumbling management of negotiations with Iran, starting under the Obama Presidency, is just one long farce. I have no doubts, seriously, that both Tabataei and Malley will be showing up in a future White House Administration. Harris’s designated future Secretary of State is a close friend of Malley’s. As reported in Reuters it now appears that Congress is going to conduct an investigation of the affair.
France is hosting an international military naval arms defense exposition next month. French President Emmanuel Macron made the arbitrary decision to bar Israeli companies from participating at the exhibition. My personal opinion is that he is afraid of the competition. It is not clear what pretext he is using. He can’t claim that the arms presented are used to kill Gazans. It now appears that France will permit Israeli companies to participate if they can demonstrate none of their products were used in any Gaza operations. The French have such a nuanced way of deception.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Please take the time to read this analysis by the head of the Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies, Professor Eitan Shamir. In it he articulates what I have been saying since the beginning of The War. Western Powers see this conflict from their own experiences which are mostly irrelevant to the Middle East. The Biden Administration criticizes us non stop for not having a strategy for the day after. But as this paper articulates, we do in fact, if only they would listen.
And in juxtaposition we have these two articles providing the traditional Western view on why Israel’s military actions will lead us “nowhere”. They are written by those who try to cast the Middle East in their own image, without understanding fully how things really work here. Here is the first - This article in Foreign Affairs describes one view of the aftermath of the reign of Yahya Sinwar. I post it because I think it presents a strong case for how the legacy of Sinwar will live on. It typifies the Western Read on the futility of Israel’s efforts to “destroy Hamas”. But no one here really thinks that the IDF can “destroy” Hamas, perhaps other than the rhetoric sometimes heard from our Prime Minister. Just like ISIS is not destroyed, one cannot destroy Hamas. BUT, what we are striving to achieve is eliminate the ability of Hamas to run and operate Gaza as a Jihadi state with the means and ability to launch major attacks on our population. This is not going to happen in some sort of Treaty of Versailles or Westphalia. It is going to take ongoing operations over years to continually ensure that Hamas cannot reconstitute as a fighting force. This strange Western View is also evident in this The Economist analysis.
You may remember that two weeks ago I reported on the IDF rescue of a Yazidi woman, Fawzia Amin Sido, being held captive inside Gaza by Hamas. Her rescue was a coordinated International Operation. She is back in Northern Iraq with her family now from where she granted her first major interview with a reporter from the UK The Sun. You should read it only if you can handle absolutely the most revolting account of terrorism. The title gives you an idea of what the interview entails: “10 YEARS IN HELL: ISIS sex slave who was kidnapped at 11 reveals she was fed cooked babies before being kept prisoner by Hamas in Gaza”.