October 388, 2023, "The War"
My 287th post on The War
Today’s Image - Al-Jazeera’s Rogue Gallery
Meet some of the members of Al Jazeera’s staff of correspondents reporting from Gaza: Anas al-Sharif, Alaa Salameh, Hossam Shabat, Ashraf al-Sarraj, Ismail Abu Omar, and Talal al-Arrouqi. Yesterday the IDF released documents captured from Hamas archives during one of its many operations in Gaza. Those documents provide incontrovertible evidence that those correspondents are moonlighting as members of “the press”, but are in fact Hamas combatants. I cannot read Arabic, but according to the IDF the documents consist of personnel spreadsheets, lists of training courses, telephone books and salary documents. According to the IDF, al-Sharif was the head of a rocket launching squad and a member of a Nukhba Force company in Hamas’s Nuseirat Battalion; Salameh was the deputy head of the Shaboura Battalion’s propaganda unit, in Islamic Jihad; Shabat was a sniper in Hamas’s Beit Hanoun Battalion; al-Sarraj was a member of Islamic Jihad’s Bureij Battalion; Abu Omar served as a training company commander in the East Khan Younis Battalion, and he been wounded in an Israeli airstrike several months ago; and al-Arrouqi was a team commander in Hamas’s Hamas’s Nuseirat Battalion. In response to the IDF public statement Al Jazeera had this to say, officially:
The network views these fabricated accusations as a blatant attempt to silence the few remaining journalists in the region, thereby obscuring the harsh realities of the war from audiences worldwide. These baseless claims follow Al Jazeera’s recent exposé of potential war crimes committed by Israeli forces during the ongoing war on Gaza. These journalists have been steadfastly reporting from northern Gaza, with Al Jazeera being the sole international media presence documenting the unfolding humanitarian crisis resulting from Israel’s siege and bombardment of civilian populations. Al Jazeera categorically rejects the Israeli occupation forces’ portrayal of our journalists as terrorists and denounces their use of fabricated evidence. The network asserts that its journalists are merely fulfilling their professional duties, documenting and reporting on the devastating impact of the war on the Strip’s two million civilians.
There are a lot more details on this story to read here.
Last May the government shut down the Jerusalem offices of Al-Jazeera. Then it closed (temporarily) Al Jazeera’s offices in Ramallah this past September, which is administered by the Palestinian Authority. In both incidents statements released by the Foreign Press Association and The International Federation of Journalists castigated the Israeli government for its actions.
At the time I first reported on the biased coverage of the Western Media I pointed out the main causes:
The stringers hired by the Western staff are never vetted.
If a Western reporter operates from within Gaza or Judea/Samaria (West Bank) they are commonly threatened by Hamas, the PA or both unless their reports show the authorities in a favorable light and show Israel as the devil. They are threatened with bodily harm or informed that their movements will severely restricted.
The stringers operating from these areas enjoy earning double salaries.
Most are perfectly happy to file slanted reports as they hate Israelis.
Those that genuinely wish to provide objective reporting are intimidated either through threats to their own personal safety or to their families.
Casualties
Since my last post the IDF has reported 3 casualties: Master Sgt. (res.) Saar Eliad Navarsky - 27 (Z’’L), .Maj. (res.) Aviram Hariv - 42 (Z’’L) and Staff Sgt. Yishai Mann - 21. Navarsky died in a Hezbollah barrage of 10 rockets inside Northern Israel. Hariv was killed during combat inside Lebanon. Mann dies in a military vehicle crash inside Israel near the Gaza border.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel the past 10 days.
Today, Thursday, by mid day more than 80 rockets have been fired by Hezbollah in two separate launches. The first group of 30 targeted the northern Israeli city of Tzfat (Safed). You can see a video of active interceptions of this barrage here. There is an IDF base not far away, near Mount Meron. The second group of 60 rockets targeted the coastal cities of Nahariya and Acre. There are several Israeli Defense Contractors with research and manufacturing facilities in that area. One of the rockets struck a home near Nahariya severely damaging it and leaving a large crater. Four people were lightly injured from the barrage near Nahariya. No damage or injuries were reported from the strike near Tzfat.
On Wednesday Hezbollah launched more than 135 rockets into Israel. All but 6 of them were barrages targeting communities in the north. One man was wounded with shrapnel striking his head. This was after a barrage of 25 rockets targeted the coastal city of Nahariya. He remains in serious condition in the hospital. I was in Tel Aviv last night when sirens went off. I had to go into my Mamad (bomb shelter room) where I closed the 2 cm thick protective solid iron cover so shrapnel would not strike the glass in the window. In that strike causing sirens to go off in Tel Aviv Hezbollah launched four of its medium range rockets. Presumably they were targeting the military base about 12 km north of the city. One of the Hezbollah rockets hit an Arab village in Samaria (West Bank) about 12 km northeast of Tel Aviv. No one was hurt but there was some damage to automobiles. You can see a video taken of the incident here. Note that the cars bear Israeli, not Palestinian Authority, license plates.
In addition to the rockets, two missiles were fired by Hezbollah targeting the community of Beit She’an at the southern edge of Lake Kinneret (Sea of Galilee). Both were intercepted. It is not clear what was being targeted.
By later afternoon on Wednesday no less than 5 drones were intercepted by either IDF naval forces or the Air Force. One was launched by Iraqi based Iranian proxies targeting the southern city of Eilat and the rest were launched by Hezbollah. It is estimated that Hezbollah started the war with more than 1,000 Iranian drones in its arsenal. These are the same drones being used by Russia in its indiscriminate attacks on Ukrainian civilian facilities. Here you can see video footage of the interceptions. None of the drones entered Israeli air space.
Also Wednesday, Hezbollah fired intermediate range rockets that targeted the Tel Aviv area. The actual target was a large IDF base about 10 km north of Tel Aviv housing the well known 8200 Signal Corp. Both rockets were intercepted but about 1 million people went into their bomb shelters. This was followed by a barrage of 25 rockets targeting the Haifa area. Some of the rockets were intercepted. Damage has been reported but no injuries. Earlier in the day a barrage of 30 rockets targeted the northern city of Kiryat Shmona. There was light damage, but no injuries. Later in the day the IDF intercepted two missiles launched by Hezbollah heading for the northern city of Beit She’an, not far from the Jordanian border. This is the first time this area was targeted.
Altogether more than 70 rockets were fired by Hezbollah into Israel onTuesday. In the morning more than 35 rockets and at least 2 drones were fired by Hezbollah in a combined attack. These types of attacks are becoming more frequent as they put pressure on the IDF aerial defense systems. This attack was the one which killed Navarsky and injured 5 other IDF soldiers. Then on Tuesday afternoon 30 rockets were fired in a single barrage into the Upper and Western Galilee areas. Those triggered sirens over most of the Northern part of the country. Four people suffered injuries, mostly from glass shards. Two had to be hospitalized in moderate condition. Along with this barrage a single drone was spotted off the coast of Israel. The IDF tracked the drone but then lost contact with it. Today, Wednesday, it found the remains of the drone outside the northern Israeli city of Yokne’am.
It turns out that Hezbollah’s multifaceted attack of multiple types of aerial armaments three days ago on the coastal city of Ceasaria did, in fact, result in a direct hit on Prime Minister Netanyahu’s private residence. This fact was under military censorship until Tuesday, but prior to the censor release rumors were leaking all over the country that the residence was directly hit. So now it is official. The damage was to reinforced windows in the Prime Minister’s bedroom in the form of serious cracks. But due to their construction none of the window pains broke. You can read more here. This method of attacks - using simultaneous launches of rocket barrages, drones and, occasionally, missiles - as an attempt to overwhelm IDF defenses is becoming more commonplace, and effective. Here you can read a good analysis of this evolving method of attack being deployed and modified by Hezbollah for effective penetration of the IDF’s aerial defense systems.
Lebanon Operations
Today, Thursday, the IDF reports that IDF infantry uncovered another tunnel in Southern Gaza with underground bunkers with beds, food, toilets and modest kitchen. It was in use not too long ago and was most likely to be used for staging Hezbollah’s intended “Liberate Galilee Operation” which was to be much larger than Hamas’s “Al Aksa Flood” operation.
Very early this morning IDF fighter jets conducted missions against Hezbollah weapons production and storage facilities in their stronghold in the Southern Beirut district of Dahiyeh. Advanced warnings were provided to residents in the buildings as these arms facilities were located underneath civilian residences. In this video of one of the strikes you can see the multiple explosions after the strike typical of weapons storage facilities. One of those strikes was apparently, according to reports from Lebanon, targeting the Hezbollah managed TV station Al-Mayadeen. After the warning issue earlier by the IDF, the staff had evacuated the building before the strike.
The Lebanese Army, yes there is one, said today that three of its soldiers were killed in IDF led strikes. No details were provided. The IDF has launched an investigation into the incident.
Yesterday, Wednesday, the IDF sent advanced warnings to residents of the Southern coastal city of Tyre informing the residents to leave a set of buildings serving as Hezbollah’s Southern Front Command Center. Here you can see an example of what these x.com posts look and sound like as issued by IDF Arabic Spokesman Avichai Adraee. After the civilians evacuated IDF fighter jets destroyed buildings in the neighborhood used as command/control.
Over the past two days of fighting IDF fighter jets managed to assassinate three Hezbollah regional commanders of Radwan units in Southern Lebanon. Separately, the prominent commander of one of their drone units, Khalil Muhammad Amhaz, was killed in an airstrike in Northern Lebanon. During ground operations in Southern Lebanon IDF troops have managed to eliminate 70 Hezbollah combatants as well as locating then destroying several tunnels used to store weapons and stage strikes. Then one of the brigades entered a town with a prominent mosque. In the mosque they uncovered a huge store of weapons including anti-tank missiles. You should take the time to watch this 1 ½ minute video.
On Tuesday during one of these strikes this video was taken by an Associated Press photographer, Bilal Hussein. Stop, freeze at 0:03 seconds and try to move the video, frame by frame. You will see the missile first in the sky above the building and then as it strikes the bottom. You will also notice that the precision of the missile destroys the 12 story building without affecting the adjacent building. I apologize for spending time on a missile strike that hit a civilian building. It appears callous, but I also thought that it illustrated first hand how precise these strikes really are. As you can see, the building does appear to be evacuated.
In a dramatic disclosure by the IDF it was announced that in a building adjacent to a hospital the IDF is convinced that underground is a large bunker used by former Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah for lengthy stays and still holds large amounts of cash and gold. This has become an international newsworthy item and is getting coverage in much of the world. The IDF has been accused by the Al-Sahel hospital, who is an ally of Hezbollah, of making false accusations. Recently hospital staff invited local press to tour the facility in order to convince them, and the world, that there is nothing underground other than hospital facilities. The IDF replied by giving specific instructions on where they might find the hidden doors leading to the underground complex. So far no one has gone back to look for the hidden facility. Before striking the facility, the IDF provided advanced warning to the occupants via SMS messages to mobile phones and posts on the x.com page of the IDF Arabic Spokesman. The Biden Administration has remained mostly silent on the issue, requesting more substantial intelligence regarding how/why the IDF believes this facility was being used for hoarding cash and gold. Know anyone interested in joining me on the search for the gold???
On Tuesday, Hezbollah managed to shoot down one of the IDF’s drones in Southern Lebanon, a Hermes 450, using a surface to air missile. There was no concern that any sensitive information could be extracted from the drone. This was not the first one shot down. This type of drone is a surveillance drone only. It does not carry any warheads. They are built locally by Elbit and exported. Here you can see a photo of one:
Also on Tuesday the IAF conducted several strikes on Hezbollah weapons manufacture and storage facilities in the Dahiyeh neighborhood of Beirut. Here are aerial videos taken during the strikes. You will notice that in the case of the second you can see explosions after the initial strike.
Also on Tuesday, the IAF struck Hezbollah’s naval base near Beirut. There it stores speed boats and trains its naval forces.
Gaza Operations
Gazan civilians continue to evacuate the Jabaliya area in Northern Gaza as active fighting continues there with residual pockets of Hamas operatives. In the past two days more than 200 terrorists have been arrested there. All are being queued for questioning in an effort to glean where the remaining Hamas Combatants operate from. Their evacuation is being coordinated with the international aid organizations operating in the humanitarian zone, which has temporary housing set up and mobile hospitals. The IDF maintains that this is evidence that their efforts to break Hamas’s siege of the city and the adjacent cities of Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya is finally taking hold. Many, perhaps as many as 300,000 civilians returned to these three cities and Gaza City because they still have standing buildings where civilians can stay, sleep and cook. But aid has not been easy to get into the area as not many international aid organizations are operating there. Nearly all are operating in the humanitarian zones. The problem is that many Hamas Combatants also took refuge in the area along with the civilians. Here you can see drone video footage of some of the residents leaving the area.
Yesterday, Tuesday, the IDF conducted an airstrike on an evacuated school named Martyrs School in Nuseirat in central Gaza. As I have mentioned before, the Hamas combatants remaining are operating from Nuseirat, Deir al-Balah and the three Northern Gaza communities of Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya. According to the IDF they maintained the building under tight surveillance for several hours before the air strike to ensure that civilians were far away. Also on Tuesday the IDF struck a Hamas command center in an abandoned school in Gaza City. Again, the IDF kept the facility under surveillance prior to the strike in order to minimize civilian casualties.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
Syrian state media issued a statement today saying that fighter jets struck both the neighborhood of Kafr Sousa, on the outskirts of Damascus as well as a military site near its western city of Homs. The statement reported that one Syrian Soldier was killed in the operations.
Turkiye’s defense ministry claims that it launched attacks against Kurdish military groups in Iraq and Syria which, it claims, were behind the recent terror attack in Ankara targeting Turkiye’s Aerospace Firm TUSAS. The attack killed 5 and injured 22 people. With no real evidence Turkiye’s government blamed the Kurdish Workers Party PKK for the attack. The Kurds make up a large (about 20%) and growing minority inside Turkiye, living mostly in the strategic eastern section of the country. At one point in the past the PKK demanded a separate state, but now it claims that it only wants autonomy. I wonder if the UN Security Council will meet to condemn the Turkiye attacks on civilian populations in Syria and Iraq? You can read more about the attack here.
Reports in the UK’s The Times suggest that Israel was forced to delay and re-assess its “imminent” attack on Iran due to the widely publicized leak in the USA of its plans to the press. According to this report, the Israeli Security Cabinet met to make changes to the plans, asking the IDF to alter its internal planning. The time is needed to simulate the attacks and prepare the IAF for the changes in plans. I do not think that Israeli will be briefing the USA anytime soon on its plans again.
You may be asking why is it that these reports appear in foreign press rather than in Israel. In Israel there is military censorship during a time of war, which is most of the time. The IDF can restrict the printing of any material in the media if and only if it determines that it could jeopardize missions or disclose highly sensitive IDF secrets. Writing about an attack on Iran falls in both categories. So if some IDF defense advisor deems it important to get to the media, they must go through foreign press in an obtuse fashion.
Yesterday, Wednesday, Iran and Saudi Arabia (and several other unnamed countries) held a joint war games exercise in the Sea of Oman. Not sure I understand the point of the exercise since I cannot imagine the two countries collaborating at any time in the future on a joint operation.
IDF/Government - “The Generals’ Plan”
The Biden Administration has raised the issue of “The Generals’ Plan” and its concerns regarding the Gazan Population should it be implemented with Prime Minister Netanyahu recently. It was one of the key subjects discussed between Prime Minister Netanyahu and Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his visit earlier this week. The Biden Administration has requested that Netanyahu publicly declare that the government is NOT implementing this plan. Netanyahu has said privately that the government does not endorse the plan, but is unwilling to declare so publicly as he fears that it would antagonize his extreme right wing coalition partners. I had not discussed the plan previously as I did not think it carried much merit and would not likely receive widespread endorsement. In fact, it has not gotten much endorsement. But because it was drafted by a collection of former Israeli Generals it has gotten some publicity. Since you are likely to hear about it discussed in the Western Press, let me brief you a bit on what it is and why I, and others, think it is highly flawed.
What is “The Generals’ Plan”?
The plan was drafted by a collection of former Israeli Generals and senior military staff back in April, 2024. Here is a good description of who wrote it and what it entails. Essentially the plan calls for the clearing of Northern Gaza of civilians by giving those living there a week to evacuate. After that the entire area, including Gaza City, would be declared a closed military zone. In this plan, it is assumed that by denying the area of aid the civilians would move on their own accord to the humanitarian zones. The plan then presumes that those remaining would consist only of Hamas combatants who would be given a choice to surrender or face death. It is estimated that there are about 3-5,000 Hamas combatants remaining of which some are new recruits. The plan also presumes that this “siege” would force Hamas to release the hostages. The authors of the plan argue that it was the withdrawal of aid that led to the November ceasefire and release of half the hostages. They also argue that the plan is consistent with International Law since it provides for the peaceful evacuation of civilians from the area in which a siege is being deployed. Here is an interview with the general who led the effort in drafting the plan, Major General (ret.) Giora Eiland. It is about one hour long.
What Problem does The Plan Address?
The generals do a good job of identifying the main problem that Israel and the IDF face at the moment. In an effort to provide aid to the civilian population the IDF and COGAT are enabling the flooding of aid into Gaza. In fact, more than 600 trucks worth of aid have accumulated on the staging areas inside Gaza. The problem is with distribution. Hamas combatants commandeers more than 60% of the aid. Rather than distribute it to the needy population, it actually charges money to the population on the black market. It has been estimated that this artificial black market has resulted in bringing more than $1billion into Hamas coffers since The War began. The intention is to remove this inflow of funds and starve the terrorist organization of its funding to pay its army of terrorists. Obviously, the other issues the plan tries to address include recovery of the hostages, elimination of Hamas as a fighting force and eliminating their ability to govern Gaza. Presumably, if the plan were to succeed in Northern Gaza, it would then be opened to civilians to return while the IDF repeats the operation in Central and finally, Southern Gaza.
My View
This plan is flawed in many ways. Firstly, it presumes that the Hamas combatants won’t be able to blend in with the civilian population and move to the humanitarian zones as well. Secondly, it presumes that Hamas won’t forcibly block the civilians from leaving the area. Thirdly, it presumes that the International NGOs in Gaza along with the International Community at large will do nothing to prevent the IDF from deploying this plan. It also presumes that the IDF has successfully blocked the tunnel infrastructure in Northern Gaza sufficiently to block the Hamas combatants from moving freely around Northern Gaza as well as potentially escape to Southern Gaza. I do not think anyone has enough confidence in the current situation to be sure that some tunnels still exist or previously disabled ones have not been re-enabled.
Other Opinions
I discount opinions from outside Israel since I do not think they have an appreciation for the reality of the situation. But here is one excellent view, in my opinion, from Brig. General (res.) Udi Dekel. I urge you to read it. And here is an article in support of the Plan written by one of its authors, Col. (res.) Hezi Nehama.
There has been two incidents of Israel’s Shin Bet uncovering Iran based operations in Israel. The first involved the recruitment and payment to a family of immigrants from Azerbaijan living in Haifa. They were found taking photographs of facilities on several IDF bases and providing them to Iran. They were also found to have taken images of other IDF facilities around the country and spying on highly visible Defense officials. Over the course of two years they are accused of conducting more than 600 reconnaissance missions on behalf of Iran. They were being paid several hundred thousand dollars for their services. They are now in custody waiting arraignment. In a second incident, 7 Arabs from East Jerusalem were arrested for espionage. The investigation took place over the course of the past two years. The cell was preparing the assassination of an Israeli nuclear scientist. They also had dossiers on a mayor in a central Israeli town who they were assigned to kill. They are being held in custody as well.
Aid
As of Wednesday 91% of the children in Southern Gaza have received their two anti-polio vaccines. It has been harder to complete the second round in Northern Gaza due to the ongoing fighting.
In response to the charges that the government has secretly agreed to adopt the so called Generals’ Plan, see above in IDF/Government, COGAT (Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories) announced on Tuesday that since October 14 more than 237 aid trucks entered Gaza and deposited their cargo for distribution into Northern Gaza. Before that aid into Northern Gaza was severely constrained, for reasons that are claimed to be political in nature. On Thursday 104 humanitarian trucks entered Gaza, of which 20 came in via the Northern route. Aid organizations distributed only 32 trucks worth of aid in that same period, leaving more than 700 trucks worth of aid waiting to be distributed.
Hostages/Ceasefire
It appears that based on a meeting between President Putin and Moussa Abu Marzouk, a Hamas politburo member, it was decided that in any future hostage deal two of the hostages that are dual Israeli/Russian citizens will be among the first to be released. One of the Israelis in question did not, in fact, hold a Russian passport but his parents were from Russia originally. The parents were able to secure him a passport after his capture by Hamas in the hopes that it would aid his recovery.
International
Secretary of State Antony Blinken has wrapped up his 1 ½ day visit to Israel. In separate meetings he met with Prime Minister Netanyahu, Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Gallant with the military leadership, President Hetzog and representatives from the Hostage Families. In his meeting with Netanyahu he expressed the Biden Administrations concerns over what has been called in Israel “The Generals’ Plan”. I outline below more details and references for this “plan”. But Blinken requested that the Israeli Government formally denounce this plan. In the eyes of the Biden Administration this “plan” would have led to a humanitarian catastrophe in Northern Gaza. Netanyahu did not agree to publicly denounce the plan but did agree to continue the much higher flow of aid that is now occurring into the Northern Gaza area. They then went on to discuss what the “Day After” might look like without publicly disclosing any of the details. Blinken left Israel on Wednesday and headed to Saudi Arabai. This morning he arrived in Qatar. Busy guy. On Friday he leaves for London where he is scheduled to meet with several Arab Foreign Ministers to discuss Gaza and Lebanon.
During a meeting between Abu Marzouk, a Hamas politburo member, and Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Bogdanov the Russians were asked to facilitate negotiations between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority in order to arrive at a Unity Government. Hamas is working hard for this scenario as it would place the burden of governance on the PA (which has proven that it can’t govern) while Hamas can continue as a “shadow state” in order to restore its ability to launch attacks against Israel. This is the situation in Lebanon where Hezbollah places all its efforts in leading its “resistance” while designating administrative tasks to the hollow Lebanese government. And the International Community expects us, Israel, to endorse such a government to run Gaza…. I don’t think so.
Yesterday, Wednesday, France wrapped up its international donor meeting held in Paris intended to create a large humanitarian fund to help rehabilitate Lebanon. There were apparently 70 delegations. France insists that altogether they received pledges of $540M. In the aftermath of this meeting it was announced that the EU will provide the Lebanese Army (not the government) 20 million euros this year and 40 million next year. Why does everyone think that throwing money around solves such fundamental problems such as governance and server? Subsequent to that, France and the USA announced a joint resolution calling for the full implementation of UN Resolution 1701 and southern Lebanon to be free of any troops or weapons other than those of the Lebanese state. This is exactly what the UN resolution calls for and one of the demands of Israel.
US Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellin, during a press conference at the 2024 Annual Meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank, said that the US is working to hold the Iranian Regime accountable for its destructive behavior across the Middle East. In the same briefing she called on Israel to continue its correspondent banking relationship with PA run banks in Judea/Samaria. Without this relationship it would be difficult for the PA to disburse payments and manage its own affairs. It was extended by Israel’s Minister of Finance, Bezalel Smotrich, for a period of 3 months but the worry is that the right wing extremist may not renew it again.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is a great interview with one of my most favorite politicians/ministers, Yoaz Handel. Handel was (is) an officer in the IDF Naval Shayettet 13 unit (they train with the US Navy Seals sometimes). He pushed his way back into active duty on October 8 and has been leading a newly formed battalion of reservists since. It is my hope and expectation that he will ultimately lead the formation of a new political party of reservists who fought in The War and ultimately form the backbone of this country.
Here is a book review ++ of Bernard-Henri Lévy, France’s most recognizable public intellectual, by none other than Bret Stephens. Levy’s book is entitled “Israel Alone” so that gives you an idea of the subject.