October 400, 2023, "The War"
My 288th post on The War
Today’s Image
Well, I’m back from the sailing trip. What you see is the sun setting over the hills as seen from a bay inside the unpopulated island of Alimia off the coast of Rhodes. We were one of two boats in the bay. A very beautiful place. We were lucky with both the weather as well as the flights going and coming. It was a great break.
Casualties
Since my last post 10 IDF soldiers were declared dead, bringing the total to 780 altogether, 368 since ground operations began in Gaza.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israel the past 22 days.
Yesterday about 60 rockets were fired by Hezbollah towards Israel.
Today, so far, the number is less than 30. The IDF claims that it has destroyed about 80-85% of the Hezbollah rocket arsenal. If true that still leaves them with about 30,000.
Early this morning a drone launched by Hezbollah entered Israel and was neutralized by IDF air defensive systems. Around the same time a barrage of about 10 rockets were launched in the direction of the coastal cities of Acre and Haifa. About half were intercepted. No damage or injuries were reported.
Lebanon Operations
IDF ground operations in Lebanon continue to expand in scope and area. Another underground Hezbollah bunker was uncovered capable of accommodating dozens of Hezbollah fighters for weeks. The southern Lebanese bunker was about 70 meters in length (2 football fields) and was destroyed today. You can see a video of the tunnel and more details here.
The IDF announced that they have recovered so many Hezbollah arms as a result of their southern Lebanese operations that they are considering forming a dedicated brigade that could use these anti-tank missile systems as it requires some special training. It sounds far fetched to me, but who knows… You can read more here.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
Syria’s state run media outlet reports a missile fired from a fighter jet struck a target in an industrial zone near the country’s western border with Lebanon. Later in the day the IDF confirmed, in an unusual announcement since it rarely comments on operations in Syria, that it struck an Hezbollah weapons depot in western Syria. You can read more here.
In a separate operation a second high level figure in Hezbollah’s intelligence branch was assassinated today. Mahmoud Mohammed Shaheen was killed by IDF artillery fired at a facility located in a town south of Damascus, Syria. Shaheen joins the other figure leading the Hezbollah intelligence, Hussein Ali Hazimeh,l who was killed back in early October when Nasrallah’s successor was assassinated.
While I was out sailing the IDF Egoz commando unit launched an incredible operation into Syria capturing a senior Syrian man working on behalf of Iran by collecting intelligence on targets inside Israel. Ali Suleiman al-Asi is being held for questioning now.
And in Southern Lebanon operations, the IAF assassinated Hezbollah’s Radwan Force’s anti-tank missile system commander, Riad Rida Ghazzawi, today.
Iran has sentenced to death three citizens accused of aiding in the assassination of the country’s top nuclear scientist in 2020, presumably an operation conducted by Israel’s Mossad but never confirmed.
This morning one of Iran’s proxies in Iraq announced that it launched three drones toward the city of Haifa last night. The IDF reported shooting all three down.
IDF/Government
There are major issues dominating the headlines in the country at the moment since they hold the potential to bring this government down.
The first is related to government stipends provided to the male students in the ultra-orthodox world that study the torah (Hebrew bible) all day. The stipends are intended to provide childcare support so they can spend more time studying. These stipends were recently stopped because the Supreme Court ruled that those receiving it were not serving in the IDF. The ultra-orthodox parties in the coalition are demanding that the stipends not only be restored but the amount of subsidies should be increased, without forcing this population to serve in the IDF. Gideon Sa’ar who heads a four member party that recently joined the coalition announced that his party will vote against this stipend bill. And so far at least 5 other members of the coalition parties have announced that they will also vote against this bill. This means that there are, currently, not enough votes to get the bill passed through the Knesset legislature. This issue is integrally tied to the overall issue of drafting the ultra-orthodox. The ultra-orthodox parties, which hold 16 seats our of the coalition’s 67 seats in the government, are demanding not only that the subsidies be increased but that legislation that enacts in law the exemption of the ultra-orthodox must be passed in the Knesset. Prime Minister Netanyahu has a reputation in the country for pulling “rabbits out of a hat” when it comes to issues like this. He always seems to find a way to keep the disparate parties from bolting the coalition. In the past he has done things like providing the ultra-orthodox community more financial benefits. But, I do not think this will work this time. We should know more over the next six weeks, but if everyone “sticks to their public positions” this government will break apart forcing new elections. Those of you that have been following my posts will recall that I have mentioned more than once in the past that this issue is likely to eventually bring this government down… most likely by the end of this calendar year. But not all the ultra-orthodox feel this way. Here you can read an article about Mendel Rata, the son of a well know ultra-orthodox rabbi who is enlisting to serve in a specially designated unit of the IDF designed for the ultra-orthodox. In his words:
For an entire year I knew at every moment that something is very wrong with my way of life. The blood of my brothers is spilled like water and I sit and remain silent.
Just today Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said that the IDF needs a “large-scale” draft of ultra-Orthodox to help meet its immediate manpower needs. Here is an article that provides some background on why subsidies were being provided in the first place.
The second issue is the recent uncovering of massive and deliberate security leaks coming from individuals hired into the Prime Minister’s Office with the job of preventing leaks from cabinet meetings. Many of these articles appearing in the foreign press quoting “unnamed government sources” have been apparently coming from these individuals. So far six individuals have been arrested and accused. Many were affiliated with the far right wing extremist party, Otzma Yehudit, run by National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir. And many of these leaks were designed to complicate hostage/ceasefire negotiations. Each day some new revelation appears in the press and none of it is showing a government in control of its deliberations in private. You can read more here.
A third issue that is rocking the government is that of the refusal of the Minister of Justice Yair Levin to convene the selection committee for the new President of the Supreme Court. He has been stalling for a year as he wants to overhaul the way in which selection committee members are chosen so that it can be dominated by the wishes of the government. I have also reported on this previously. While this is a major issue and this guy is deliberately creating a mess in an effort to unilaterally “get his way” and disable the main “check and balance” in the country’s governance, it is not big enough yet to bring down the government… but it should in my opinion.
Aid
Israel connected the single water desalination plant in Gaza to Israel’s electric grid enabling it to produce drinking water in the amount of 20,000 cubic meters of water daily. That is the amount produced prior to the start of the war. Israel provided about 50% of the electricity needs to Gaza prior to the war.
It was announced today that the IDF will cooperate with the World Health Organization operating in Gaza for the purpose of evacuating 100 patients with chronic diseases and trauma out of Gaza to a foreign hospital.
Most of the children in Gaza have now received both anti-Polio vaccinations. Only those in Northern Gaza remain where it has been difficult due to the ongoing fighting. Nonetheless, 88% of the children in the northern sector have been fully innoculated.
Due to nearby fighting, IDF forces assisted the evacuation of two hospitals in the northern part of Gaza to facilities in the humanitarian corridors. This included the delivery of fuel, food, water, medical supplies and even units of blood at the other facilities.
Yesterday, Monday, 101 trucks bearing aid entered Gaza and unloaded their cargo in the staging areas. Of those ½ were delivered to Northern Gaza. But, of all the accumulated aid, only 50 trucks worth of aid were collected for distribution to those in need leaving about 580 trucks worth of aid sitting in the staging areas.
Hostages/Ceasefire
The government has confirmed reports appearing on one of the major TV stations that they are now offering more than a million dollars to Gaza families that release living hostage(s) to the IDF as well as safe passage out of Gaza. Hamas has rejected every proposal to date, demanding that first all IDF troops must leave Gaza before any negotiations proceed. I concur that this is likely to be the only method by which we can retrieve the living hostages without risking their lives in a rescue mission. In this article US Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirms that Hamas is not interested in even a partial deal, refusing to even enter negotiations.
International
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot is set to visit Israel and the Palestinian Authority starting tomorrow. He is coming for the purpose of demanding a ceasefire in Gaza. I guess that demanding the return of the hostages first is not so important to the French. This follows on the remarks made by President Emmanuel Macron regarding how Israel owes its existence to the auspices of the United Nations. Where do these French study history??
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
It is likely that you have already seen this video, but in the event you haven’t you might watch this 4 ½ minute clip of Australian Sky News Host Eric Molan deliver a clear message on moral clarity that should be heard by everyone in the Western World.
And here is an interesting take on the impact of the recent successful IAF operation conducted in Iran resulting in the destruction of al of Iran’s Russian Built S-300 Surface to Air missile systems. As a result of the successes it is predicted that much of Russia’s military export industry will suffer as who wants to pay for a defensive system that doesn’t defend?