October 408, 2023, "The War"

My 291st post on The War

Today’s Image

Eric went to the Knesset today. A friend is a tour guide at the Knesset, our Parliament Building, and led a tour of friends today. We watched as a “debate” and then vote on a legislative bill enabling parents of toddlers who are in Day Care to have the right to see live footage of the facility. Debates in the Knesset are more like shouting matches than real debates. I was looking, but couldn’t find, an eject button that might automatically remove members of the government from the proceedings so a new election might be called…. Too bad.

Casualties

It has been a rough few days. On Monday an officer, Maj. (res.) Itamar Levin - 34 (Z’’L) was killed in Northern Gaza. He was a member of special forces. Then on Tuesday two civilians were killed in a major rocketer barrage from Hezbollah in Lebanon striking the northern coastal city of Nahariya: Ziv Belfer - 52 (Z’’L0 and Shimon Najm - 54 (Z’’L). Najm moved to Israel from Lebanon in 2000 after Israel evacuated its South Lebanese enclave. Nahm was a Maronite Christian member of the Southern Lebanon Army. Israel gave refuge to members of that militia and their families when they evacuated knowing that if they had stayed Hezbollah would have murdered them all. Also on Tuesday four IDF soldiers were killed during fighting in Northern Gaza: Staff Sgt. Orr Katz - 20 (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Nave Yair Asulin - 21 (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Gary Lalhruaikima Zolat - 21 (Z’’L) and Staff Sgt. Ofir Eliyahu - 20 (Z’’L).

Then this afternoon a tragedy occurred during closed quarters combat in Southern Lebanon. Six members of the Golani Brigade were killed during an exchange of fire with Hezbollah combatants. Those who died include: Cpt. Itay Marcovich - 22 (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Sraya Elboim - (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Dror Hen - 20 (Z’’L), Staff Sgt. Nir Gofer - 20 (Z’’L), Sgt. Shalev Itzhak Sagron - 21 (Z’’L) and Sgt. Yoav Daniel - 19 (Z’’L).

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

Yesterday a rocket fired from Northern Gaza was intercepted by Israeli aerial defenses.

Yesterday, a drone launched from Iraq was intercepted as it was en route to the southern Israeli city of Mitzpe Ramon. Then later in the day a second drone was intercepted outside Israeli air space while on its way to Israel’s Golan Heights. It too was launched from Iraq.

Yesterday, Hezbollah claimed to have fired long range missiles at a Southern Israeli Air Base, but the IDF reported that no such missiles crossed into Israel. Also, yesterday a Hezbollah kamikaze drone successfully penetrated Israeli air space and struck a kindergarten. Teachers heard sirens in the distance. and immediately started shuffling the kids into a nearby bomb shelter. Once there they heard a large explosion. After leaving the shelter they realized that the drone struck exactly where the young students were just moments before the blast. There were three other drones launched at the same time. The others were successfully intercepted. It is not clear yet why sirens in the immediate vicinity of the kindergarten did not go off. You can see a short video here of the damage to the school in the aftermath of the drone strike.

The IDF said that since November 1, Hezbollah launched about 60 kamikaze drones into Israel.

Today, an IDF missile boat built in Israel, as most are, neutralized a drone approaching the Southern Israeli city of Eilat outside Israeli air space. It was launched from Iraq. These launches from Iraq are becoming much more common.

And today Hezbollah claims that it launched a series of drones for the purpose of attacking the Defense Ministry’s main facility in Tel Aviv, often known as the “Kirya”. This is the equivalent of The Pentagon. But the IDF stated that they saw no evidence of such an attack. Also, today three drones launched by Hezbollah were intercepted in Israeli air space before they could reach the coastal cities of Nahariya and Acre in Israel’s north.

Overall today, Wednesday, Hezbollah fired about 9 drones and some 45 rockets.

Lebanon Operations

Operations in Lebanon appear to be expanding as IDF ground troops are increasing the scope of their penetration into towns in Southern Lebanon. Troops have located numerous rocket launching facilities and destroyed them. These operations have been augmented by Israeli fighter jets missions, averaging almost 100 per day, in which sites across Southern Lebanon, the Eastern Bekaa Valley and the Southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahiyeh are gettin hit regularly. Yesterday, under warnings from the IDF’s Arabic language spokesman 11 buildings were evacuated in the Southern Beirut neighborhood of Dahiyeh so that civilian life would be preserved during the course of an imminent air strike against the Hezbollah arms manufacturing facilities. Also located under those buildings were Hezbollah command centers and armories. After this most recent round of missile strikes the IDF announced that it believes it has destroyed most of Hezbollah’s underground military facilities located in Beirut neighborhoods.

Last night Israeli fighter jets struck several Hezbollah weapons storage facilities and command centers in Beirut’s southern neighborhood of Dahiyeh after warning were issued to civilian residents in the buildings on top of the Hezbollah facilities.

During the course of the past three days the IDF says that its fighter jets managed to assassinate several regional Hezbollah field commanders including: Muhammad Musa Salah who was responsible for forces in the Khiam region in Southern Lebanon, Ayman Muhammad Nabulsi who was commander of Hezbollah’s anti-tank missile unit in a different part of Southern Lebanon and Hajj Ali Yussef Salah the infantry commander of a Hezbollah company in Southern Lebanon.

In support of both the ground forces and overall strikes on Hezbollah the Israeli Navy has been pretty busy but mostly hidden in the background. Here you can view a short video and read more about the impact they are having in The War in Lebanon. In one frame you can see Israel’s offshore gas field. Except for the submarines nearly all those ships were built here in Israel. The IDF purchases its submarines from a defense contractor in Germany.

Gaza Operations

Yesterday, the IDF announced that it was launching a probe into possible Code of Conduct violations by troops recently in northern Gaza. There was nothing more specific announced than this.

Yemen Operations

The Houthis announced that they were engaged in intense missile and drone attacks on US naval military assets in and around the Red Sea, including an aircraft carrier. Later in the day US CENTCOM confirmed that us naval ships were attacked by more than eight drones, five anti-ship ballistic missiles and three anti-ship cruise missiles. All airborne threats were neutralized by air defense systems. You can read more details here.

Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye

Yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu went to the airwaves again to deliver a message to “the people of Iran” in English with Farsi subtitles. It is quite clear that our government has a strategy of doing what it can to support “regime change” that is so necessary in Iran.

Also yesterday The Islamic Republic of Iran announced that it would build an underground tunnel between an underground metro station and the main hospital in Tehran. This is the first defensive tunnel being constructed in Iran as all the others are in place to protect either arms manufacturing facilities or nuclear facilities.

Today, IDF fighter jets struck several trucks transiting the border between Syria and Lebanon which it was claimed were carrying weapons to resupply Hezbollah.

Syrian national media sources reported today that fighter jets struck targets in the area of Al-Qusayr, not far from the Syrian city of Homs. This area is used by Hezbollah and Iran for the production, assembly and shipment of rockets and missiles.

Today, US CENTCOM announced that it struck a Syria weapons deport used by Iranian backed proxies in attacking the small US army contingent in Eastern Syria where there is an ISIS military detention camp.

IDF/Government

A bill designed to severely curtail UNRWA’s operations in Israel has advanced in the Knesset today. The government intends to designate and treat the organization as a terrorist organization. While the organization is supposed to only provide aid to the residents of Gaza and Judea/Samaria (West Bank) the IDF has shown clearly that many of its employees actively participate in terror activities, some actually lead terror attacks and most of its teaching staff teach young children how to perpetrate terror attacks. If the bill ultimately passes UNRWA’s facilities in Israel, predominantly in Jerusalem, will be shut down.

Protests/Politics

You might check out this short video of a rather unusual protest that took place two evenings ago outside the Knesset, Israel’s Parliament building. These are modern orthodox women demonstrating because they feel that they, their husbands and their families are suffering the brunt of this war. People from this segment of the population constitute a significant segment of society that supports the National Religious Party and, to a lesser extent, Otzma Yehudit Party.. the two extreme right wing parties in the parliament. If you read the Hebrew you will see that their main complaint is the unequal distribution of the burden from this war… i.e. the Ultra-Orthodox not serving. Today, the Prime Minister Netanyahu met with these women. After the meeting he promised to increase the financial support for those families with reservists serving much of the past year. This is so typical of this corrupt government. They think that they can just buy everyone off. The main issue of these women is that the Ultra-Orthodox need to serve in the IDF as well so that the reservists are spending so much time away from work, families, etc. So the just and righteous things for the Prime Minister to have done was to tell these women that he would support the legislation that will draft the ultra-orthodox. But I guess because he and his associates are so easily “bought off" they think that everyone else can be “bought off”. What they seem to ignore is that at some point down the road there will be a day of reckoning. Supporters of the two extremist right wing parties as well as those of Netanyahu’s Likud Party also insist that the ultra-orthodox be drafted. So the question is whether their constituents will remember how their representatives voted on this upcoming legislation??

Yesterday, Tuesday, the Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara issued an order that the IDF must issue 7,000 draft notices to eligible ultra-orthodox youth by this Sunday in order not to be in violation of instructions from the Supreme Court. Prior to his dismissal, Former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued orders to proceed with this call up order. This, was in part, why he was fired when he was fired. In the meantime leaders of the ultra-orthodox parties publicly claim that Prime Minister Netanyahu promised them that the call up orders will not proceed. So far the new Defense Minister Israel Katz has not rescinded those call up orders.

The last call up orders were issued about four months ago to 3,000 ultra-orthodox, all of whom are working and not full time studying. Of the 3,000 only 273 showed up with only 48 ultimately enlisting. This is a problem that is not going away and is not getting resolved.

Prime Minister Netanyahu is scheduled to appear with his attorneys in court on December 2 relating to one of the criminal investigations that was launched years back. He requested a delay claiming that he was too busy dealing with The War. The request was denied.

Aid

There was a demand issued by the Biden Administration to the Israeli Government that it must, within 30 days of issuing the demand, significantly increase the amount of aid getting into Gaza. Yesterday, State Department spokesperson Vedant Patel appears to have confirmed a report that the Biden Administration will not, for now, withhold weapons shipments to Israel. Patel said in his daily press briefing that at this time the US has not “made an assessment that the Israelis are in violation of US law”. The new Kissufim border crossing is now fully operational.

International

President Isaac Herzog is in Washington DC after attending the Jewish General Assembly for the US Jewish Community. During their meeting Herzog thanked President Biden for his support for Israel and for coming to visit in one of the country’s darkest periods in its short history.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• In this 10 minute read Khaled Abu Toameh delivers an inciteful analysis of why negotiating with Hamas will lead nowhere. Toameh is an Israeli Arab and widely read analyst here in Israel. He understands, at the ground level, what is truly going on inside Gaza and amongst the Arab communities in Judea/Samaria (West Bank).

• Here is a great analysis on Israel’s Strategic moves after the crisis that erupted on October 7, 2023. Many, including the Biden Administration have castigated the Israeli government over and over for not having a strategy in play or, as they call it, a “Day After Plan”. Well this author turns the tables and shows how Israel does have a strategy that is playing out while those criticizing it have none. What the critics miss is that Israel is playing “the long game” which is an unusual position that it finds itself in.

• And here is some internal thinking from the Lebanese themselves on how things might proceed.