Today’s Image
This is a photo taken days ago of a UNIFIL base inside Southern Lebanon. As you may recall UNIFIL’s mission there is to enforce UN Security Council Resolution 1701 which holds as one of its major requirements is that UNIFIL block Hezbollah from rearming in Southern Lebanon and re-establishing its positions there. Well you can see from this photo a clear picture of just how well UNIFIL completes its duties.
Casualties
There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the past 2 days.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
On Saturday two rockets launched from southern Gaza were intercepted before they could strike the targets inside Israel.
On Friday a drone launched from Lebanon made it through IDF aerial defenses but landed in an open area of the Western Galilee without harming anyone or causing any damage. Altogether there were about 80 rockets fired from Lebanon into Israel on Friday with no notable injuries nor damage.
On Saturday, two drones were launched from Lebanon in the late afternoon and both were intercepted over Israeli air space. For a first, there were no rockets fired from Lebanon today into Israel. The IDF claims that it eliminated more than 45 launchers last week, so maybe this is the result. But, we should expect the attacks to resume early this week.
Lebanon Operations
On Friday IDF airstrikes on both the coastal city of Tyre as well as the southern neighborhoods of Beirut continued. Warnings to civilians were provided in advance. The IDF provided no details other than saying that they struck various Hezbollah facilities.
On Friday Italian UNIFIL forces in South Lebanon came under fire again. Italian Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani said that the evidence points to Hezbollah forces. Defense Minister Guido Crosetto said that four Italian soldiers were slightly injured following the explosion of two 122 mm rockets hitting a bunker on the UNIFIL base.
On Saturday, the IDF continued its aerial attacks on Hezbollah command centers in Southern Beirut. As in previous strikes advanced warnings were given to the local population to evacuate.
Very early on Saturday morning IDF fighter jets launched an attack in central Beirut, which is highly unusual. The subject of this assassination attempt was Muhammed Haydar, a senior Hezbollah military commander and the ranking Chief of Staff. At this time is it not known if they succeeded in killing him. Later on Saturday fighter jets struck several targets on Hezbollah facilities in Dehiyeh, the south Beirut neighborhood. You can read more here.
Gaza Operations
The IDF announced that earlier this week airstrikes on Hamas facilities in the Northern Gaza town of Beit Layiya succeeded in killing a group of Nukba Force commanders, some of whom led the October 7 operation. Beit Lahiya is one of about 5 towns in Gaza where Hamas still has operating combatants. Two of the others are in Northern Gaza - Jabaliya and Beit Hanoun. The other two in Central Gaza are Deir al-Balah and Nuiserret. It is believed that the surviving hostages are located in the latter two towns. On Friday an IDF airstrike took out a senior commander of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad who was in Deir al-Balah.
With much of their armory eliminated, Hamas forces are starting to rely more and more on IEDs Improvised Explosive Devices that are used to ambush IDF soldiers patrolling the areas. This is how they booby trap many of the homes and residences throughout the 5 towns. In this x.com post you can see a video of Hamas combatants planting an IED and an IDF drone eliminating them before they could finish the job.
It is the use of these IEDs and snipers that have become the primary means for Hamas to fight now. In this report you can see an example of an IDF drone eliminating a Hamas sniper. These are tools of a guerrilla insurgency, not a fighting army. So, in my view, this suggests the end of Hamas as a fighting army. It is not clear if or how the IDF can further reduce the level of this type of fighting. Most of us here in Israel expect that the IDF will remain in Gaza for years to come as it is seen as the only way to prevent a version of October 7 from being repeated. There is no other entity willing and able to deter Hamas from reconstituting itself as a fighting army. The minute that the Palestinian Authority would hypothetically take over governance, they would invite Hamas to participate in governing and look the other way as Hamas re-arms itself. Today in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) the PA does nothing to interfere with the Hamas operatives there. They rely on the IDF to go in and eliminate the terrorists and their facilities. And no other Arab or International Force would be interested in taking on Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.
So the only question being argued here in Israel regarding Gaza relates to the hostages. There are those who argue that in order to retrieve the hostages Israel should remove the IDF forces from Gaza, then get the hostages and return should the need arise again, sooner or later. This would likely leave Hamas in power, or at least what is left of it. But, this side ignores the fact that the Hamas leadership (in Turkiye now) would not agree nor release the hostages unless they had a full iron clad agreement and guarantee that IDF troops could not re-enter Gaza for a long, sustained time period. On the other hand, those that insist on not withdrawing from Gaza now place the fate of the hostages in jeopardy. There is only so long they can survive under the brutal conditions of their captivity. Any attempt of special operations to rescue them is likely to lead to many of them being killed by their captors.
So the country remains in a “standstill” regarding this situation. It divides the country and there is no obvious solution to this “Solomon Like” dilemma. It is my view that should new elections be held it will not resolve this issue. It would fix some other important problems having to do with governance, trust, separation of powers, equality amongst the citizenship, etc. But, it is not likely to lead to a resolution of this dilemma. Here is one way of looking at this problem.
Gaza Operations
Well you can’t say that there is no justice in the world. On Tuesday of last week, I reported on an attack by the Houthi’s on a Panamanian flagged commercial vessel. Well it turns out that the ship is owned by a Turkish company and was called the Anadolu S. The Houthis doubled down saying that they “carried out an operation targeting the ship Anadolu S in the Red Sea with a number of appropriate ballistic and naval missiles.”. You can read more here. With the globalization of the shipping industry it is difficult to discern ship ownership from cargo ownership from nature of cargo, etc.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye
In this report on US’s NBC News it is reported that an IDF fighter jet strike in Syria about 9 days ago successfully killed a senior Hezbollah commander who planned a deadly attack on US soldiers stationed in Iraq back in 2007, Ali Mussa Daqduq. The terrorist led a team of Hezbollah operatives that disguised themselves as an American security team when they entered a US Arm base from which they opened fire killing five US soldiers. Daqduq was captured by US forces and incarcerated in an Iraqi jail. The Iraqis released the terrorist not long after US forces left. You can see more here.
Aid
I haven’t updated COGAT’s (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories) status in some time. Their most recent post said that on Thursday of last week 61 trucks with humanitarian aid were delivered into the staging areas of Gaza but only 8 trucks worth of cargo were picked up for distribution. There is the equivalent of 887 trucks worth of aid cargo accumulated in the staging areas of Gaza. Clearly the issue is how to overcome the Hamas commandeering of the aid trucks. There are rumors of a US private contractor being paid to handle the distribution of the aid. Will report when I learn more.
IDF/Government
You may recall me previously reports regarding the arrest of individuals in the Prime Minister’s Office on charges of breaching state security when they intentionally leaked classified security documents to the foreign press. Those charged involved the German newspaper The Bild in one instance and the UK Jewish Community’s newspaper The Jewish Chronicle in a different set of leaks. They involve the foreign press because they knew that no Israel paper would publish the highly classified information. The main party accused is an Eli Feldstein. On Friday, his lawyer publicly accused in a TV interview that his client has been abandoned by the Prime Minister’s Office. To quote:
Eli Feldstein did not act on his own behalf. He provided advisory services in the Prime Minister’s Office. If there are claims, they should be directed to the Prime Minister’s Office. It was the Prime Minister’s Office that was acting here. It acted by means of Feldstein. And today Feldstein has been left alone, alone, alone.
Feldstein has been charged with transferring classified information with the intent to harm the state. If convicted he will face a sentence of life in prison. The Prime Minister publicly accused the State Prosecution, under the office of the Attorney General, with being selective on the cases it prosecutes. He claims that there has been an ongoing flood of leaks from top level security cabinet meetings without anyone being charged or investigated. In a broadcast Saturday night the Prime Minister cited five leaks from ministerial meetings he viewed as endangering the state that have not been investigated. While not denying that leaks seem like a regular event coming from sensitive cabinet meetings in this government, it seems to me that the Prime Minister’s arguments do not alter the seriousness of the case at hand.
Protests/Politics
This weekend’s Torah reading features Chayei Sarah. This is the chapter talking about Sarah’s death preceded by the effort of Abraham to purchase a piece of land in the Land of Israel for the purpose of burying her. This piece of land is known as Ma’arot HaMachpela, the Cave of the Patriarchs, located in the Judean city of Hevron. Until the massacres of the Jewish Community by local Arabs in 1929 this city has had a continual Hebrew-Jewish community for more than 3,000 years. The cave is considered the second holiest site in Judaism, after Jerusalem. Today the population is predominately Muslim who built the Ibrahimi Mosque on the same site. A Jewish community has re-established itself in Hebron nearby but it is a fraction of the area and population of the city.
On this weekend many people descend on the city to pray and recite the relevant passages from the Torah. To secure the area from violence both the police and IDF maintain a large presence throughout the weekend. Yesterday afternoon dozens of right wing extremists attempted to attack the local IDF commander Maj. General Avi Bluth. Those who attacked him were shouting “traitor”. These extremists attack the army because they contend that it restricts them and their actions throughout Judea/Samaria (West Bank). In many parts of Judea/Samaria (West Bank) the IDF finds itself caught between extremists from both sides trying to commit violence on the other side.
On a related subject Defense Minister Israel Katz announced on Friday that the IDF would end its practice of Administrative Detention against Jewish Israelis. It is a policy used by the IDF to physically remove protagonists from an area that is under real physical attack. Sometimes those held under detention are ultimately arrested and charged with crimes. Most of the time they are later released once the immediate danger of harm is neutralized. In those cases it is more of a “cooling off”. On rare occasions charges of actual “torture” have been claimed by those incarcerated. I view this move as politically motivated and coming from press to bear by the right wing extremist elements in the current ruling government. I think this is intended to further tie the hands of the IDF when dealing with these situations which have on occasion been triggered by these extremist elements. In my view, it lends to further break down the rule of law in an otherwise lawless area.
And today dozens of right wing extremists threw rocks at Border Police near a controversial village of Itamar in Samaria (West Bank). Ultimately the IDF had to send troops to help the Border Police. It is my view that this was just a test of the new edict from Defense Minister Katz regarding eliminating detention of extremists. You can read more here.
I generally avoid reporting on results from polls generated in Israel. This is because polls are often designed in ambiguous fashions in order to achieve the desired results of those commissioning the polls. But today I make an exception. Results from a poll commissioned by Israeli TV Channel 12 on Friday probed several areas of the current political atmosphere. Firstly it found that 79% of those questioned favor the establishment of a state commission of inquiry for the purpose of understanding what led to the events of October 7, 2023. It was not stated whether those questioned preferred to have the commission set up now or at some point in the future. When asked about trust in the current government, 64% said that they do not trust it. Regarding the popularity of Prime Minister Netanyahu, you may recall that subsequent to the October 7 tragedy his popularity sank in the polls. Over the months of The War, his popularity remained low as Defense Minister Gallant was considered the most trusted in the ruling coalition. According to this most recent poll Prime Minister Netanyahu has regained must of the lost ground and now ranks higher in the polls than any of his rivals - Yair Lapid, Benny Gantz - except for former Prime Minister Naftali Bennet who ranks a full 5% above the current Prime Minister. It has been rumored that Bennet is starting to lay the groundwork for assembling a rival political party. All this polling should be regarding as transitory. Nothing is relevant until elections appear imminent.
Today, in the Israeli city of Kiryat Ono (about 15 km east of Tel Aviv) an Arab school teacher at a local high school (mixed Arab and Jewish) resigned from her position. Students at the school found her supporting positions of Hamas in her Instagram Feed and started holding vocal protest against her outside the teacher’s lounge at school. The students in question were heard shouting “Death to Arabs”. The school principal sent a letter to the students saying that an investigation had been conducted and that nothing the teacher posted was inappropriate. One student has been suspended. It is my view that a better approach would have been to use this as a lesson in the Freedom of Speech to the students. But, perhaps that was tried.
International
As many of you have read, the International Criminal Court issued arrests warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Hamas Military Commander Mohammed Deif. The “court” claims that it could not substantiate the death of Deif, so the arrest warrant was issued. You can read the details on the ICC’s web site here. The charges against Israel are that it has targeted civilians in Gaza and used starvation as a method of war.
The Chamber considered that there are reasonable grounds to believe that both individuals intentionally and knowingly deprived the civilian population in Gaza of objects indispensable to their survival, including food, water, and medicine and medical supplies, as well as fuel and electricity.
It is my understanding that for the prosecution to succeed in its case it must prove that Israel instituted policies that targeted civilians and used starvation as a method of war. There is no way an objective court could convict Israel of either. However, it is also certain that this case will never go to court. Neither Prime Minister Netanyahu nor former Defense Minister Gallant are likely, now, to risk traveling to a country that might enforce the arrest warrant and extradite either to The Hague in the Netherlands.
It is my view that certainly it is time that an independent commission of inquire by established to investigate the policies and events that led to the failures pertaining to October 7, 2023 - what preceded it, what happened on that day and how the subsequent war was conducted. However, I do not think that it would have mattered to the ICC. The prosecutor Karim Khan had promised to visit Israel and question leadership before he would issue any request for arrest warrants. He broke that pledge in deference to political motivations. The “judges” are no different. This is not a “court” that renders justice.
Reactions around the world vary considerably. The issuing of the warrants was praised by President for Life of the Palestinian Authority Mahmoud Abbas, as it was by President for Life of Turkiye Tayyip Erdogan. Iranian Revolutionary Guard Chief Hossein Salami said that the decision lead to the end and political death of the Zionist Regime. Germany announced its support for the ICC but would not announce its intentions until a state visit from Israel was impending. France issued a similar statement. UK’s Prime Minister Keir Starmer said that the country would honor the ICC’s warrants. Australia’s Prime Minister issued a similar statement aligning the country with the UK. Likewise, Ireland announced it should honor the warrants. The former British Commonwealth seems to be aligned on this with Canada announcing that it too would arrest Prime Minister Netanyahu. President Biden castigated the issuing of the warrants, calling them “outrageous”. It appears that members of US Congress are investigating moves it might take against the “court” as appears to be the case for the Trump Administration that is currently under creation. Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban invited Netanyahu on a state visit in defiance of the “court’s” decision. Here is one view on the situation.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
In this incredible article appearing in the major Israeli daily Yediot Ahranot, Fahad Almasri (The name Almasri is also a common last name among Arabs living in Judea/Samara (West Bank) which means “the Egyptian” since his lineage is probably from Egypt.) the President of Syria’s National Salvation Front provides a dizzying array of reports on all the moving pieces in the fighting in the North. You should read it as it provides insight in just how the IRGC moves all its chess pieces to deal with the successes of the IDF in its northern campaign.
In this report from UN Watch you can read details about how UNRWA senior officials worked closely with many of the terrorist leaders, collaborating with them and arguing that “we are all one”.