Today’s Image
You can tell this is not the Sierra Nevadas from the mine field warning. But that’s right, it does snow in Israel. This is a view of Mt. Hermon, without Hezbollah rockets, on Israel’s Golan Heights. Lebanon is just on the other side of the mountain. Israel has seen its first heavy rain of the season yesterday and it snowed up on the Golan Heights. Here you can watch a video of a snow plow operating earlier in the day today.
Casualties
There were no civilian nor IDF casualties reported in the last 4 days.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
One rocket was fired from Northern Gaza targeting the Israeli settlement of Kfar Aza. The rocket missed its target and landed in an open field without damage or injury.
Altogether Hezbollah launched 250 rockets into Israel yesterday. When you see this kind of volume it either means a massive retaliation for some major assassination by the IDF OR, as is likely in this case, we are getting close to a ceasefire. Each side will step up the pressure in the days before the ceasefire.
This morning a 20 rocket barrage hit the area around Nahariya in the north. Most of the rockets were intercepted but a few made it through, striking buildings. A 60 year old resident of Nahariya suffered from a shrapnel wound to the head and was rushed to the hospital in mild condition.
Also this morning Hezbollah launched a kamikaze drone which was intercepted by aerial defense systems in Israeli air space.
Lebanon Front
Announcements and mobile phone SMS messages to residents in the Southern Lebanon village of Halta and the Southern Beirut neighborhood of Dehiyeh were broadcast this morning in an effort to evacuate civilians from Hezbollah facilities that were staged to be destroyed by the IDF. Halta is about 3 km from the Blue Line border with Israel, along the slopes of Mt. Hermon which is pictured in Today’s Image above. After civilians evacuated IDF fighter jets struck both locations.
The IDF was busy today with many fighter jet and ground force operations attempting to take out many of the remaining rocket launchers being used by Hezbollah. They hit many of Hezbollahs command and control centers along with armories and rocket launchers. In just a few hours today IDF fighter jets hit over 25 targets in southern Lebanon’s Nabatieh, the northeastern city of Baalbek, the Beqaa Valley and Beirut’s southern neighborhoods. According to the IDF the strikes seriously damaged the ability of Hezbollah’s Executive Council to conduct business and direct military operations.
Gaza Front
The IDF reports that one of its air strikes in North Gaza assassinated the head of Hamas’s East Jabalia Battalion’s rocket unit, Ahmed Abd Halim Abu Hussein. In the attack many of his subordinates were also killed, many of whom participated in the attack on October 7, 2023.
In a separate operation an IDF fighter jet assassinated a senior commander in the Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Basel Kamel Salim Nabahin, who also participated in the October 7, 2023 attack.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye Fronts
There are some updates related to the murder of Chabad Rabbi Zvi Kogan (Z’’L) in the United Arab Emirates. One of you posted in the comments section yesterday the question:
On what basis did I report that the assassins were Uzbeki members of an Iranian Proxy group?
Those were the reports appearing in more than one Israeli newspaper. I qualified my statement to say that there was no certainty in the report as I wrote “He was the victim of a killing believed to be an assassination conducted by Iranian Proxies operating out of Uzbekistan.” In fact today officials in the UAE have arrested 3 Uzbeki nationals and are being charged with the killing. They are named as: Olimpi Tohirovic (28), Mahmoud John Abdel Rahim (28), and Azizbek Kamilovic (33). You can read more details in the UAE’s Khaleej Times here. There is no mention of the affiliation of the assassins with one or another organization. Iran has denied its involvement. Here is another report in a different UAE online media outlet. Neither article mentions the affiliation of the accused. But there is really no way that these three foreigners would have done this on their own. The operation required too much prior knowledge and some level of sophistication.
Reports in the Israeli Press shed more light on the arrested Uzbeki Nationals. It is not publicized, but Israel’s Mossad assisted the UAE police in the investigation and arrests. It is reported here that the individuals were arrested after they escaped to Turkiye. And that too is not being publicized so as not to embarrass Turkiye. The reports in the Israeli Press suggest that the three suspects were paid mercenaries. Yesterday I reported that it was believed that the three were acting as part of an Iranian Proxy based in Uzbekistan. The prevailing opinion now is that it was not an Iranian Proxy, but more likely Islamic Jihad or a different terrorist organization.
My view is that the time from the discovery of the body until the suspects were arrested was incredibly short, almost too short to be believed. Either the UAE authorities had a lot of help or perhaps the arrest of these three is a bit premature. I am guessing the former. Rabbi Kogan will be buried in Israel tonight. He was a former lone soldier serving in the IDF’s Givati Brigade.
Hostages/Ceasefire
You can tell that we must be getting close to an agreement on a ceasefire deal as not only is the pace of rocket fire and IDF fighter jet attacks increasing but the rhetoric of those politicians opposing a ceasefire is increasing. In fact, it is rumored that the government’s Security Cabinet will approve the ceasefire deal tomorrow, perhaps with some requests for clarification. Likewise Lebanese officials are saying that they see no serious obstacles to closing a deal.
National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, leader of the right wing extremist party Otzma Yehudit, is demanding that Prime Minister Netanyahu nix the ceasefire deal. He insists that with the progress made on the front with Hezbollah that now is the time to finish off the group.
It is my view that he has totally lost touch with reality. He totally ignores the fact that the government specified that one of its war goals was to return the residents of Israel’s north to their homes in a safe manor. It was never to finish off Hezbollah. To completely finish off Hezbollah as an organization would require a campaign about 5 times the size of the current ground and aerial campaigns. And take at least 3-4 years to complete. Unlike previously outlandish claims by this “idiot” (sic) he cannot threaten to leave the government since Prime Minister Netanyahu added the 4 member party of Gideon Sa’ar to the government. That means that the government can survive even if Ben Gvir walks away.
That being said, there are heads of municipalities and districts in Israel’s north that are claiming the terms of the agreement do not satisfy the requirement of returning the residents safely to their homes. They argue that there are too many loop holes that would allow Hezbollah to creep back to its positions up against Israel’s border and restore the threat it poses to the Israeli population from there. The details of the deal have not been formally published. But here is what has been disclosed in the Israeli Press so far:
Israeli withdrawal timeline: Under the proposed agreement, Israeli ground forces would begin withdrawing from southern Lebanon within 60 days of the cease-fire's implementation. During this period Hezbollah is to remove all its personnel and facilities to north of the Litani River. At the conclusion of this phase, if all goes to plan, Israel’s northern residents will start to return to their homes.
Border negotiations: The agreement also stipulates that Israel and Lebanon will begin negotiations over disputed border points following the implementation of the cease-fire. NOTE: I was unaware that there were any land based border disputes remaining. This is probably just something to placate certain parties in Lebanon. The UNIFIL forces verified that Israel fully withdrew to its border in 2000.
Deployment of Lebanese Army and UN peacekeepers: The Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) would replace withdrawing Israeli troops south of the Litani. These forces would oversee the dismantling of remaining Hezbollah infrastructure in the area and ensure the terror group does not reestablish its presence.
International oversight mechanism: A U.S.-led international enforcement committee would be established to oversee compliance with the agreement, drawing on UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which followed the 2006 Lebanon War. The committee would include Britain, Germany and France, despite Israeli opposition to French involvement.
Hezbollah prisoners and targeted killings: The agreement stipulates that Hezbollah operatives captured by Israel during ground operations will not be returned to Lebanon. While Hezbollah sought guarantees against targeted killings of its leaders, Israel refused to commit, leaving the issue unresolved.
Side Agreement: There is a side agreement with the USA that is not being published. It pertains to what conditions would allow Israel to enforce the Hezbollah arms embargo and response to Hezbollah attacks. As you might guess it is highly sensitive information.
But before anyone gets to excited and breaks out the champagne, here is a synopsis of a report from a highly respected Saudi Arabian Middle East Analyst who argues that the two months are timed to march out the remainder of the Biden Administration and the expectation that Hezbollah will never live up to its part of the bargain. From my experience, the analyst Khairallah knows the situation quite well…
Aid
Despite what the ICC may think, Israel, despite being the party attacked, has enabled the transfer of 2.2 Billion pounds of humanitarian aid to Gaza since the outset of The War. It is hardly a policy of starvation as a weapon of war. Just yesterday COGAT facilitated 52 trucks of aid to enter Gaza. The organization reports that aid NGOs picked up 94 trucks of aid inside Gaza for distribution, leaving some 720 trucks worth of aid still waiting for distribution inside Gaza.
IDF/Government
Previously I reported on an emerging major issue involving National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir and his authorization of the unlawful issuance of firearm permits. Our “Iron Lady” Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara informed Prime Minister Netanyahu previously that the head of Israel’s Police Department just violated the law and he must dismiss the minister from his position until a full investigation was completed. Baharav-Miara also accuses the Minister of politicizing his position and promoting senior police officials who endorse his extremist policies. She appointed Chief Superintendent Keren Toledano to lead the investigation into Ben Gvir. But Ben Gvir’s lawyers are now arguing that he should be dismissed from the investigation since there is a conflict of interest. Toledano was the natural successor to the previous Chief of Police, but Ben Gvir passed him over for political purposes. I hope that Baharav-Miara “sticks to her guns”.
And there is another major issue emerging inside the government. One of the criminal trials of Prime Minister Netanyahu has reached the stage where his testimony is required by his Defense Team. They have postponed his appearance for more than 18 months, even prior to The War, on the basis that the PM was too busy. But the court appears to have had enough. They will have to decide in the next week whether to permit him another postponement or not. Today they issued a directive to him and the Attorney General stating that he must recuse himself from duties as Prime Minister while he provides his testimony. I don’t see how this is going to end well…. but we will have to wait and see.
Protests/Politics
In what is seen as a political move in opposition to Prime Minister Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant accepted an invitation to visit with his formed counterparts in the USA, including Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan, and special envoy Amos Hochstein. While I was, and remain, a supporter of Gallant I find this move awkward, at best. Gallant is no longer in a position of authority and he appears to countermand the authority of the new Defense Minister as well as the Prime Minister. For his sake, I hope that nothing happens to the aircraft. Should it have to land in Canada or Europe, it is possible that he would be taken into custody for the ICC arrest warrant.
International
There is still a lot being done and said about the International Criminal Court issuing arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Firstly, there are countries who signed onto the ICC but have announced that they will not honor the demand for arresting the Israeli leaders should they enter their countries. Those countries include - USA, The Czech Republic, Hungary, Argentina. Those countries that announced that they intend to honor the warrants include much of used to be Israeli allies including: United Kingdom, Ireland, Netherlands, Spain, Norway, Belgium, Switzerland, Canada, Australia. It appears as if the incoming Republican Senate intends to take actions against the ICC. And perhaps the most interesting is the announcement from one of the most famous lawyers in the world, Alan Dershowitz, who announced today in The Wall Street Journal that he would proudly take on the task of defending the Israeli leaders. The headline of his OP-ED reads”I’m Putting Together a Legal Dream Team to Defend Israel”. In case you can’t read it behind the paywall, here are a few excerpts:
I am assembling a team of world class lawyers from around the globe to help defend Israeli leaders against the false charges. Following a few calls shortly after the ICC announcement, several prominent lawyers agreed to join. They include former U.S. attorneys general Michael Mukasey and William Barr, former Solicitor General Seth Waxman, former FBI Director Louis Freeh, as well as former Canadian attorney general and minister of justice Irwin Cotler. Other former judges, government officials, prosecutors and current professors and criminal lawyers have signed on, including Andrew Cuomo, the former attorney general and governor of New York.
He goes on to list an All Star team of attorneys who have often opposed each other in the courtroom who have agreed to assist in this case. He goes on…
We will argue that the ICC has no jurisdiction against Israel, not only because it isn’t a member, but also because the treaty that established that court precludes it from considering cases against any country with a valid judicial system that is willing and able to investigate the alleged crimes. This concept is called “complementarity.” Israel has one of the best and most independent legal systems in the world, one that is both willing and able to investigate its own leaders. The Israeli courts have convicted and imprisoned a former prime minister, a former president and several ministers. Hamas has no such judicial system.
and…
We will also demonstrate that Israel’s actions in Gaza don’t violate any international law or laws of war over which the ICC has jurisdiction. Even if the inflated numbers of casualties provided by the Hamas Health Services were accurate, the proportion of civilians to combatants killed by the Israel Defense Forces would be lower than in any comparable war anywhere in the world. This certainly doesn’t qualify as genocide or any other war crime. In addition, the efforts by Israel and the international community to send food and other provisions into Gaza have been stymied by Hamas and by gangs who have stolen the shipments.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
This is a great article you should read by a British Legal Scholar Natasha Hausdorff, a member of UK Attorneys for Israel, appearing in The Telegraph entitled “The ICC has granted succour to terror organisations around the world”. And if you have the time, you can hear her interview by Dan Senor of the Podcast “Call Me Back” on Apple Podcasts here or Spotify here.
And here is a lucid analysis from Dr. Yuan Yi Zhu, Professor of International Relations at the Leiden University of The Netherlands on the actions of the International Criminal Court. You should read it. It is entitled “The ICC has destroyed its own credibility” and appears in the British Magazine The Spectator.
Here is a rather sobering view of how the Palestinian Authority deals with a “free press”, criticism and rights advocates. It doesn’t look much different from Hamas, unfortunately.
Great article in WSJ weekend:
Essay | America's Rivals Have a New Favorite Weapon: Criminal Gangs
— Today's criminal organizations are more powerful and globally connected than ever before; some international drug gangs have more cash and ...