October 421

My 299th post on The War

Today was a very sad day for me, and to a large extent much of the country. Let me tell you why… Those of you from my former ‘hood’, Palo Alto, you MUST pay close attention!!!!!!

Today’s Image

Meet Sergeant First Class Yona Betzalel Brief - 23 (Z’’L) - from the Duvduvan Special Forces Unit. Yona was the sixth and youngest child of friends of mine, David and Hazel Brief. David and Hazel emigrated to Israel back in the mid 1990’s, about 14 years before I did and were very active in the Palo Alto Jewish Community, belonging to the Chabad run by Rabbi Yosef Levin on Louis Road. I met David back in 1991 when he was working at National Semiconductor and I was leading the Firewire team at Apple. We instantly became friends. Here in Israel he and his family have come out sailing on the boat in Tel Aviv numerous times.

Yona was injured in a military operation back in May 2023. But when Hamas launched their heinous attack on October 7, 2023 Yona pushed his way back into his unit. He and his unit got their gear and immediately went down to Kfar Aza which was under massive attack. During the operation three of his team members got caught in a firefight inside a building, then called out for help. Yona responded and rushed into the building. In the second image you see, he is with his good friend Amir from the same unit. Amir and three other members of their unit were killed and Yona took 16 bullets. Let me repeat, Yona took 16 bullets. He was rushed to the hospital to intensive care, where they had to amputate both his legs. He was unconscious through nearly all of October, in Intensive Care at Tel HaShomer Hospital. When he gained consciousness he had to go back in for multiple surgeries involving his back and at least one organ that was hit. He remained in Intensive Care for 417 days. That’s right, he was hospitalized for 417 days. That is until yesterday when he passed.

The image below is what you might call the last image of Yona as he went to be buried on Mt. Herzl in Jerusalem. My wife and I went to the funeral today. I could not hold back the tears.

There must have been nearly 4,000 people in attendance at the funeral. I was standing just to the left of the olive tree you see in the upper left of the photo. I was just barely out of the photo. It was a very difficult day…. You can read and hear the Hesped (Eulogy) that his mother Hazel gave at the Levaya (funeral) here. Standing to the left of Hazel is David, both friends of ours.

My View - About the “Truce”

I am using the word “Truce” deliberately. I do not view this as a ceasefire and it certainly isn’t “Peace”. This is a lull between the next round of fighting, not by our choice but because Hezbollah is not going away, the money that enables it to recruit/build an army is not going away and its “promise” to destroy Israel and Kill All the Jews remains.

Needless to say there are absolutely no celebrations taking place anywhere in Israel related to the “Truce”. No one is showing signs of elation nor enthusiasm for this “fake agreement”. It is clear to everyone here that the primary reason that there was an agreement to this deal was to enable the Biden Administration to “take the win”. No one here, and I mean absolutely no one, believes that Hezbollah will remain North of the Litani River. No one believes that the Lebanese Army is either able or willing to disarm Hezbollah. No one believes that the UNIFIL forces are willing or able to report objectively violations of the “Truce” in fear of being killed by Hezbollah. No one believes that France and Great Britain will show any objectivity regarding violations of the “Truce”. And we are skeptical, but less so, about the USA’s involvement. This past Monday I posted the main points of the agreement. You can read the full text here on one of the United Arab Emirates main English Language Media Sites.

Already there are reports that Hezbollah has been sighted in cars returning to Southern Lebanon from north of the Litani River. And this is because of the totally dysfunctional Lebanese Government. Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, who was the main person negotiating on behalf of the Lebanese Government, urged today the displaced residents from South Lebanon to return to their homes. And this is despite the public announcements from the Lebanese Army that the residents should NOT return yet. So in less than 24 hours the Lebanese are already violating the terms of the deal. The Lebanese Army was supposed to prevent residents from Southern Lebanon to return, until Israel evacuated its troops over the next 60 days. But they allowed a flood of cars loaded with people and goods to return to their homes in villages where there are still Israeli IDF troops stationed. This is a very unstable situation enabled by the feebleness of the Lebanese Army and the total lack of coordination within its government, which does not govern.

So you are logically asking, “Why then would Israel sign such an agreement?”. Here is a list of some of the answers to the question:

• It should cause the Biden Administration to release the jets, tractors and other equipment that was placed on hold. And “lo and behold” today, by “coincidence”, the Biden Administration announced that it would advance $680M in arms previously purchased by Israel.

• It is likely to prevent the Biden Administration from either leading or agreeing to some nefarious UN Security Council Resolution, like former President Obama did in December 2015.

• It will give our reserve soldiers a chance to catch time off with their families and maybe go back to work. We have to start reviving the economy.

• It will allow the IDF to re-focus on Gaza in an attempt to bring that front to a close.

• You may recall that at the onset of the IDF ground incursion into Lebanon I reported that if Hezbollah’s ongoing rocket attacks could be stopped, it is likely to lead to the isolation of Hamas. And that would likely lead to a more conducive atmosphere for concluding a hostage/ceasefire deal in Gaza. Sure enough today, the leaders of Hamas expressed an interest in trying to push forward with the conclusion of a deal. But, those negotiations are going to be harder than the negotiations with Lebanon/Hezbollah. I elaborate below in Hostages/Ceasefire.

• The “Truce” deal is with Lebanon and not with either Hezbollah or Syria. Israel will still have the rights to do its best to destroy arms smuggling operations, arms manufacturing sites, etc. in Syria. Many Hezbollah forces left Lebanon for Syria. Those stupid enough to stay in Syria are going to be targets for the IDF even over the next 60 days.

• There is a tacit side agreement with the USA that it will provide intelligence to Israel on any smuggling operations or Iranian arms manufacturing sites in Syria. Essentially, both are to collaborate on the elimination of arms smuggling to Hezbollah.

• Initially Israel took the position that France should not sit on the oversight committee since it has taken very strong anti-Israel positions throughout The War. But it was included on the condition that the French Government would state publicly that it would not honor the ICC arrest warrants. Today France made an announcement saying it can’t arrest Netanyahu because it believes the Israeli premier has immunity from the ICC.

• The near term threat that Hezbollah could launch a ground invasion into Israel has been removed by the IDF ground operations over the past six weeks.

• IDF will remain in the zone it created having a distance of about 6 km north of the Blue Line. Right now the orders to the IDF are not to allow any Lebanese entry into villages along this perimeter.

• The IDF has 60 days before it must remove its forces from Lebanon. It can live up to the terms of the agreement and leave them all there, in place, until day 60. During that period, should any Hezbollah Operatives ever the buffer zone the IDF can arrest or kill them. The IDF announced that troops would not be withdrawn until there is solid and consistent evidence over a period of time demonstrating that the Lebanese Army is living up to its obligations under the agreement.

Now back to our regularly scheduled items…

Casualties

In addition to the IDF reporting on the death of Yona Brief (Z’’L), they announced the death of Sgt. Tamer Othman - 21 (Z’’L) a Druze serving in the IDF.

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israeli airspace in the past 2 days.

Two drones heading towards Israel were neutralized before entering Israeli airspace this morning. The first was fired by an Iranian Proxy in Iraq, who later took credit. And the second was fired by the Houthis in Yemen, heading towards the southern city of Eilat.

Lebanon Front

Hours before the “truce” was supposed to take effect IDF fighter jets struck a Hezbollah precision missile plant in the eastern Beqaa Valley. It took several hours to complete the bombing of this underground kilometer long facility. Altogether yesterday, up until the 04:00 deadline, IDF fighter jets conducted more than 330 missions across Lebanon destroying many, many Hezbollah rocket launchers, underground armories and command/control facilities. Here you can see the underground facility and the attacks that destroyed it.

In a totally separate disclosure the IDF announced that earlier this month it struck a Chemical Weapons Plant operated by Hezbollah that was supposed to supply weapons to the Radwan Forces that were going to lead the ground attack into the Galilee Area of Israel. As reported here IDF ground forces also uncovered many gas masks, coveralls and gas tanks during the sweep of Southern Gaza.

In an announcement made yesterday, IDF ground forces reached the Litani River at its most northern point. But for most of the length of the river in Lebanon there are no IDF troops…… yet.

Already this morning 4 Hezbollah combatants were captured by the IDF when they tried to enter a village in the area perimeter along the Blue Line. Suspects that approached IDF positions in a different village refused to halt after warnings from the IDF and were shot. And in the village of Kfar Kila Hezbollah members tried to enter, but were fired upon using warning shots by the IDF to prevent them from entering the village. And in this video recorded by villagers returning to the South Lebanese village of Khiam they record spotting an Israeli tank in the village. So they have flooded into Southern Lebanon when they weren’t supposed to.

Gaza Front

Ground troops operating in northern Gaza’s city of Jabaliya raided a former school last night where it knew that a small company of Hamas combatants were assembling. All the Hamas combatants were killed. These schools are no longer used. In a separate operation in Northern Gaza, IDF troops were fired on by Hamas combatants using an anti-tank projectile near the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahiya.

Yesterday the IDF announced that the head of Hamas’s Jabaliya rocket unit, Ahmed Abd Halim Abu Hussein, was killed in an air strike.

Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye Fronts

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi announced today that Tehran reserves the right to react to last month’s IDF strikes on facilities in Iran. But given the recent “ceasefire” reached in Lebanon it will reserve this right for sometime in the future. I believe that the IDF would prefer that Iran take some action now so it can use the opportunity to destroy its oil exporting and nuclear bomb facilities.

On the other hand the Iranian Proxy Kataeb Hezbollah in Iraq said that it was not bound by any agreement and would continue launching drones to attack Israel.

Fighter jets struck Syria this morning, after the 04:00 start of the Truce, at a border crossing with Lebanon. No country claimed credit for the attack.

The IDF uncovered a huge arms cache in an area near the Arab town of Jenin in northern Samaria today. The Shin Bet Agency uncovered 40 special Claymore-type explosive devices and 33 makeshift Claymores, along with remote detonation systems; six RPG launchers and 24 RPGs; three 107mm rockets; two 60mm mortar launchers and 20 mortars; six M16 assault rifles and one M4 rifle; seven sniper rifles; and 37 handguns. All these arms were smuggled into Israel via the border crossing with Jordan by a special unit of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps. Here you can see a video of the extensive set of arms that Iran tried to get to terrorists in Jenin.

The Turkish Foreign Ministry today announced that the world must pressure Israel to pay for the damage to Lebanon. And who is going to pay for the damage to Israel?

And a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced today that it welcomes the end to Israeli “aggression” in Lebanon. He nor most of the Western Media neglect to mention that it was Lebanon/Hezbollah that initiated this War by firing hundreds of rockets into Israel on October 8, 2023.

Hostages/Ceasefire

I have already said enough about the “Truce” deal in Lebanon. So here are some reports relating to negotiations regarding a Gaza hostage/ceasefire deal. In this Reuters report offering details on an interview with Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri. In it Zuhri said:

We are committed to cooperating with any effort to reach a ceasefire in Gaza and we are interested in ending the aggression against our people.

I particularly like the use of the word aggression when it was Hamas that initiated this War. Zuhri went on to add that an agreement must end the war, pull Israeli forces out of Gaza, return displaced Gazans to their homes and achieve a hostages for prisoners swap deal.

It is my view that negotiations are likely to resume, but progress is only likely to be made if there is a sense that Hamas has softened its positions. So far there is no evidence that this is the case, at least in public.

In related news, Egypt sent a delegation to Israel for the purpose of restarting discussions about a deal in Gaza.

Aid

COGAT reports that 139 aid trucks entered Gaza yesterday and aid organizations picked up 72 trucks worth of aid for distribution. There is the equivalent of 730 trucks worth of aid sitting in the Gaza staging areas.

International

Today Israel filed an appeal with the International Criminal Court for the purpose of overturning the issuing of the Arrest Warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. According to the Prime Minister’s Office the appeal “exposes in detail just how absurd the issuance of arrest warrants was and how it lacks any factual or legal basis”. It was not clear if Alan Dershowitz and the team of attorneys he assembled are involved in this effort.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• Here is a fairly good assessment of what the IDF achieved in its attacks on Hezbollah as well as an objective assessment of the “Truce” Deal.

• And this article provides more details on the implications of the “Truce” Deal with Lebanon/Hezbollah. A very interesting read that you won’t find in the Western Press.

• If you have wondered how the IDF has been able to maintain a supply line to its forces across multiple fronts - Gaza, Lebanon, Judea/Samaria - you might take the time to read this.