Today’s Image
Yesterday, an Israeli teenager was hiking in an area about 15 km outside of Tel Aviv when she came across this object and picked it up. It turns out that this is a 3,500 year old ancient Egyptian scarab. This happens all the time in this country. Someone is out hiking in some part of the country, picks something up and finds out that it is some huge archeological find.
Casualties
There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the past day.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israeli airspace in the past 3 days.
No rockets, missiles or drones from Lebanon crossed into Israeli airspace in the past day.
For the first time since October 7, 2023 there were no rockets fired into Israel, excepting the week long ceasefire in November, 2023.
Lebanon Front
There were multiple violations of the “Truce” Agreement today, less than 2 days into the period. According to the Agreement, Hezbollah is supposed to remove all of its arms, command facilities and production capabilities out of Southern Lebanon. Today the IDF conducted a fighter jet based airstrike on a Hezbollah Armory in Southern Lebanon that stored medium range rockets after it identified Hezbollah combatants at the site. You can read more here. In a second case an IDF drone struck a rocket launching facility when it saw two Hezbollah Operatives enter the site.
The IDF also had to fire warning shots as suspects approached the Blue Line border which is explicitly prohibited by the Agreement. There were also several other violations of the Agreement. One involved suspects approaching the Blue Line border with the automobile. Meanwhile, Lebanese state media outlets reported that the IDF struck six areas with warning fire. All six locations were within 2 km of the Blue Line. The IDF and the Government made it clear to the Israeli population that the terms of the Agreement were going to be rigidly enforced. They have much to prove to a skeptical public.
The government has also informed the public that IDF troops will remain in place inside Lebanon until it is clear that the Lebanese Army is enforcing its terms of the Agreement by clearing out Hezbollah forces and arms from Southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Army stated that it was conducting patrols and setting up checkpoints south of the Litani River without approaching areas currently held by the IDF. Note that the checkpoints are being set up after the government told the population they could return to their homes and tens of thousands of residents flooded the roads on the way to their villages in the south. Despite this the IDF Arabic Languages spokesman sent out notices telling the population that it was forbidden to move or travel south of the Litani River.
The IDF published today an assessment of the tally of their operations in Lebanon. In total 45 civilians and 76 IDF soldiers were killed in cross border skirmishes either from rockets, drones, anti-tank missile fire or closed quarters combat. The IDF estimates that some 3,500 Hezbollah Operatives were killed during its operations in Lebanon. Reports coming out of Lebanon suggest that this might be on the low side of the estimates. This does not include the many seriously injured like the 2,000 impacted by “The Grim Beeper” operation and the subsequent Walkie Talkie operation. Specifically, the IDF estimates that about 7,000 Hezbollah combatants are injured to the level where they are unable to participate in any form of combat role. Also, the IDF estimates that it eliminated 80% of Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal having a range of 40 km or less. Initially, Hezbollah had around 5,000 medium-range rockets, but fewer than 1,000 remain. The group’s stockpile of over 44,000 short-range rockets has also been reduced, with only about 10,000 still operational. At the outset of Hezbollah’s attacks on Israel on October 8, 2023 it was estimated that the terror organization had an aerial arsenal of more than 150,000 combined rockets, missiles and drones.
According to reports from Lebanese official media outlets, the Lebanese parliament Speaker Nabih Berri has called for the parliament to elect a new president on January 9. Nothing is likely to change since Hezbollah still maintains its tight control over the political infrastructure in Lebanon.
Gaza Front
An alert IDF identified from a drone operating in the Jabaliya area a Hamas combatant preparing a rocket launcher in order to fire a rocket into Israel. He was killed before he could launch the rocket and the rockets stored at the facility were destroyed.
Taking advantage of the Lebanese Truce Agreement IDF forces have started upping the military pressure on Hamas in the northern and southern regions of Gaza.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye Fronts
In what I regard as a significant new development in Syria, but one which I had anticipated some time ago, Syrian rebel groups launched a large scale attack on areas help by the Syrian government in a region west of Aleppo. The offensive has resulted in at least 10 areas under the control of the Syrian Army being overrun. These rebels had previously received material and diplomatic support from Turkiye as they are aligned with the Muslim Brotherhood. Their advance brought the armed rebels to within a few km of two Shi’ite towns where Hezbollah has a strong militia. This military operation was clearly planned well in advance. The rebels managed to capture drones, take over a Syrian military base and ultimate capture 25 military and civilian locales. The rebels consisted of an alliance of several opposition factions. Apparently Syrian soldiers were taken prisoner. You can read more here.
With a significantly weakened Hezbollah and an ongoing and routine fighter jet attacks on Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps positions, it was only a matter of time before the rebels would decide to capitalize on the situation. In this x.com post from a correspondent associated with one of the major TV stations it was reported that a senior IRGC commander was killed by the rebel troops, Brig. Gen. Kioumars Pourhashemi. In this regard Iran will find itself in a challenging position. Russia cannot afford to send troops, munitions or aircraft to Syria for the purpose of defending the Assad Regime. In the meanwhile, Israel will maintain, despite the Lebanese Truce Agreement, an ongoing posture of attacking Iranian and Hezbollah armories, arms factories and smuggling operations inside Syria. If Iran miscalculates they could find Hezbollah, which is hated by much of the Syrian population in jeopardy inside Syria. Should all this come about the Assad Regime will once again find itself vulnerable to rebel attacks. And these rebels are not likely to be ISIS, although they could have strong Jihadi influences that are anti-Shi’ite.
Minister in the Finance Ministry Ze’ev Elkin, a member of Gideon Sa’ar’s small party, emphasized today that the Lebanese Truce Agreement does not apply to Yemen, Iraq, Syria or Iran. By this he means that Israel still retains the freedom of action on these other Iranian Proxy fronts.
IDF/Government
Pressure from the Biden Administration on the Israeli Government resulted in an extension of the indemnification agreement between Israeli banks and Arab banks in Judea/Samaria (West Bank). Without it the Arab banks would find it nearly impossible to operate. Apparently the understanding reached between the two government is that the Biden Administration would not put forward any initiative to recognize a Palestinian State in exchange for Israel extending the banking agreement.
Aid
The IDF organized a visit for the foreign media to the aid staging areas inside Gaza in order to show the correspondents how much aid has been facilitated by COGAT into Gaza. More than 800 truckloads of aid has accumulated inside Gaza waiting to be distributed to those inside the humanitarian corridor. Some of the aid has been sitting there for months. The tour was conducted by Colonel Abdullah Halabi who heads the Gaza division of COGAT (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories). He said:
Today we have more than 800 truckloads that are waiting for the international community to take them and deliver them to the people inside Gaza.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Officials from Egypt are expected to arrive tomorrow in Israel with a proposal on how to move forward with a hostage/ceasefire deal with Hamas. Reports are claiming that their proposal calls for a truce that will initially last 1-2 months during which there will be a gradual release of hostages giving priority to older and sick captives. In exchange Israel would have to release an unnamed number of terrorists held in its prison system. At the onset of the truce, Hamas would be given a few days to compile a list of the living hostages. The plan also calls for returning the Rafah border crossing with Egypt to operation, managed by the Palestinian Authority and oversight by Egyptian officials. Israel, theoretically, would be allowed to veto anyone crossing into Egypt. During this period, according to their proposal, Israel will be permitted to maintain its military positions within Gaza but not carry out any operations. My view is that the main point of contention will be the border crossing. The IDF will insist on being able to control and inspect all the material goods entering Gaza from this border crossing to ensure that no arms or the means for manufacturing arms will enter Gaza. What is not discussed publicly, yet, is the disposition of the Gazans currently living inside the humanitarian corridor which is most of the population. Without ongoing hostilities there will be pressure to enable them to return home which would also be a problem as long as Hamas is still armed.
In this report in The New York Times Biden Administration officials are quoted as saying that with Hezbollah removed from the “axis of resistance” for the time being, Hamas is likely to mollify its positions for a ceasefire. According to the article it was Sinwar that kept insisting on prolonging the conflict in the hopes that other members of the Iranian axis would join in the conflict. The longer the conflict the more pressure would mount on the Israeli Government in the terror leader’s view. According to the sources in the article Hamas is now considering permitting Israel to maintain positions along the Philadelphi Corridor on a temporary basis. Apparently soon after Sinwar’s death the lower ranking leadership in Gaza started to rethink their strategy especially once they realized that they were truly fighting Israel on their own. My view is that the Philadelphi Corridor is not the main issue. The main issue is allowing Hamas to remain in control of Gaza as this will be very difficult for Israel to accept after the massacre they conducted on October 7, 2023.
Protests/Politics
You may recall my earlier reports on a demonstration a week ago outside the Prime Minister’s private residence at which protestors fired three flares at the house. Today, after completing an investigation, prosecutors announced that they will file charges against four suspects in the hopes of indicting them in court.
Justice Minister Levin continues to delay convening the committee to appoint a replacement for former Supreme Court president Esther Hayut who retired more than a year ago. He was ordered by the court to convene the committee but he continually finds reasons for delaying as he demands to reconstruct the manner in which Supreme Court Justices are selected for the court. This guy is incorrigible.
International
Two of my favorite (not) characters who regularly voice their irrelevant opinions in public forums issued statements today worth noting. The first is European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell. France announced yesterday that it viewed the ICC as outside its jurisdiction in issuing arrest warrants for Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant. Today, in response Borrell publicly stated that:
We cannot undermine the International Criminal Court. It is the only way of having global justice. They’re not political. It’s a legal body formed by respected people who are the best among the profession of judges.
Borrell leaves his office in a month after his party lost recently in EU elections. I am going to miss him. Who else is going to get my blood boiling on such a regular basis?
Speaking of blood boiling we have recently heard from Francesca Albanese, the UN Special Rapporteur on the Occupied Palestinian Territories during her interview on the British TV Piers Morgan Uncensored show hosted by Piers Morgan. You can watch it in its 1:12.39 entirety here if you want to subject yourself to such idiocy. But let me save you the torture of watching this woman. In it she insists that Israel had no right to carry out any actions against Hamas after October 7, 2023. According to her Hamas forces on October 7 committed no rapes, did not burn alive any babies nor beheaded anyone. I guess she was an eyewitness to the events there. She insists that the ICC warrants against Prime Minister Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Gallant are not enough. And that, according to her, if they were truly innocent then why don’t they go ahead and appear in court.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
It turns out that former Ambassador Michael Oren also attended the funeral of Yona Brief. He wrote this beautiful summary of what transpired yesterday on Mt. Herzl.
I recommend you read this OP-ED article written by Ben Dror Yemini, a highly respected writer for the leading daily newspaper Yediot Ahranot. Much of Israel is in a “down” mood after the signing of the Lebanese Truce Agreement. But as he points out, there is much that the IDF and the country accomplished during its war in the north and places the country in a position of strength.