Today’s Image
This is a tourism poster encouraging visitors to the ancient city of Aleppo, Syria. Sorry, just joking. These are members of the al-Nusra Rebel group which has just taken over the city of Aleppo, Syria. They get most of their support and funding from Turkiye which, like Iran, can’t seem to keep its army to itself and seeks to export some form of Jihadi Revolution abroad. You don’t want to mess with these friendly looking guys. They are not too different from ISIS, which is not too different from Hezbollah, which is not too different form Al-Qaeda, which is not too different from Hamas, and on and on and on….
Casualties
There were no casualties reported by the IDF in the past 2 days.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
No rockets fired from Gaza crossed into Israeli airspace in the past 6 days.
No rockets, missiles or drones from Lebanon crossed into Israeli airspace in the past 4 days.
A ballistic missile was fired by the Houthis from Yemen today but neutralized by the IDF outside Israeli airspace.
Lebanon Front
Last night IDF infantry in Southern Lebanon spotted a group of armed Hezbollah combatants approaching a church where the troops had previously found a huge stash of weapons. The IDF troops opened fire and killed the Hezbollah combatants who are prohibited from operating and carrying arms inside Southern Lebanon by the recent “Truce Agreement”. The Hezbollah combatants were attempting to reach a tunnel which they dug inside the confines of the church grounds. You can see a video of the church here.
Meanwhile, France has warned both Israel and Hezbollah against what it views as actions that endanger the “Truce Agreement”. Israel takes the position that it is abiding by the terms of the agreement in that within Southern Lebanon it has the ability and right to enforce the demilitarization of Hezbollah, but only in the South. Any action north of the Litani River, according to Israel, must be discussed with the USA-French-UK joint oversight committee.
Yemen Front
The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) received an alert of an attack on a commercial ship about 80 nautical miles south of the Yemen city of Aden. No more details were provided.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye Fronts
Developments in Syria are picking up pace. The Syrian anti-government rebels have now overtaken the city of Aleppo. It took them only a couple of days. It is clear that they are sensing the weakness of Hezbollah and are trying to take the initiative. It was Hezbollah that acted on behalf of the Syrian Government in ruthlessly putting down the rebel insurrection in Syria. Russia, which to my surprise retains fighter jets in Syria, claims that a missile fired from one of its aircraft killed the leader of the rebels. The target of their attack was Ahmed Hussein al-Shar’a, known by his nom de guerre Abu Mohammad al-Julani. He is (was?) on a USA global terrorist watch list with a bounty of $10M on his head. He heads a rebel organization known as the Jabhat al-Nusra which derived much of its support from Turkiye. Gets complicated doesn’t it?? It now appears that the rebels have taken over one of President Bashar al-Assad’s Palaces, the one in Aleppo. He was not there. But the rebels are a confederation of many groups which have different views on how Syria should be governed should they succeed in taking over the government.
This afternoon a man claiming to be a senior leader in the rebel group spoke with an Arabic speaking correspondent for Israel’s Channel 12. The leader claims that the timing of the initiative was to prevent Hezbollah forces from returning to Syria. In fact, many have done just that. The leader went on to claim that their goals are to overthrow the Assad Regime and replace it with a government that can live in peace with its neighbors, including Israel. [My View: While he may be well intentioned or may not, such a thing can never happen in this part of the world.] The interviewee and a second leader also appealed for the IDF to launch strikes against Iranian and their proxies positioned within Syria.
Meanwhile, the events unfolding in Syria are being discussed within the government’s security cabinet. It has been an ongoing policy of Israel that it will do what is within its power, other than an outright deployment of forces, to prevent Iran from delivering arms or equipment used in building arms to Hezbollah through Syria. This was the policy long before the rebels took their initiative and this policy has been somewhat coordinated with the Russian Forces stationed in Syria for the purpose of avoiding any fighting between Israel and Russia.
And as if things aren’t complicated enough already, in this report it appears that Iranian proxies in Iraq are so concerned about the weakening of the axis of resistance that they are ready to deploy troops to Syria to defend Hezbollah and Syria.
The IDF notified an Iranian air plane intending to land in Syria that it must turn around. This is not the first time this has happened. When Israeli Intelligence gets wind that a specific flight is carrying arms destined for Hezbollah it tries, generally with success, in having the flight diverted. This time the plan did turn around and took the threat seriously.
IDF/Government
The Attorney General Gali Baharav Miara (one of my heroes or heroines) advised the High Court of Justice today that it should reject a petition by Prime Minister that he recuse himself from office while he testifies in the criminal trial in which he is the defendant. The Prime Minister is trying to avoid recusing himself. The Prime Minister has proclaimed in public over and over again that he is innocent of the charges against him. So why does he continually do what he can to obfuscate his appearance in court. Before October 7 there were other excuses. So in my view, the AG is justified in her claims in front of the court.
And now our new Defense Minister is outright politicizing the IDF. One of the leaders of the anti-government protests, Eyal Naveh, was issued to appear for reserve duty. There are many senior officers in the IDF who oppose this government AND there are many who support the government. That has been one of the great things about the IDF as it has avoided being politicized. But not now. Simply because he is a senior figure in the Brothers in Arms protest organization the Defense Minister rejected the call up orders. Just so you know while this group calling themselves Brothers in Arms were very active in the Judicial Reform Protests, they were the first ones to rush down to Gaza and defend the settlements under attack without waiting for orders. Naveh is a highly respected officer in the IDF and this is absurd.
Aid
Tobias Lindner, Deputy of German Foreign Affairs, has accused Israel of interfering with the delivery of aid to Gaza. According to him:
There is no excuse for that. Israel’s right to legitimate self-defense finds its limits in international humanitarian rights.
The real issue is much more complex and Israel is actually not interfering. There are more than 450 trucks worth of aid piled up inside Gaza waiting for distribution. The real problem is that there is real interference with the NGOs in charge of distributing the aid within Gaza by a combination of Hamas, Criminal Gangs and a combination of the two. Israel points out that many working for UNRWA are, in fact, members of Hamas. As a consequence some of their own staff members confiscate the aid for the purposes of selling it on the black market. This is a serious problem with no clear solution. Some in the government want the IDF to take charge of distributing the aid. But that has several problems. First the IDF is not trained for such kinds of operations. Secondly, it will set up IDF soldiers as easy targets for snipers and anyone with a rifle or hand gun.
Hostages/Ceasefire
There is a lot of talk and discussions going on in the background. I find it hard to discern any real signal amongst all the noise so I will avoid commenting much on the subject until things become more clear.
Protests/Politics
Former Defense Minister Moshe Ya’alon, a bitter enemy of Prime Minister Netanyahu, went on public TV in the past 24 hours accusing the government of steering the IDF to commit war crimes in Northern Gaza. Ya’alon, was also previously Chief of Staff of the IDF and considered a hawk. During an interview on Israeli TV Ya’alon defended his comments claiming that the government if forcing the IDF to do things that it should not be doing and in delivering such orders has the appearance of committing war crimes. As you might guess, this has created a real storm in Israel as it working on ways in dealing with the arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court. During the interview he was asked if he wished to modify his position in public. Instead he doubled down claiming that the extreme right wing elements in the government are pushing the IDF to do things that are in contradiction of its own Code of Conduct. All his accusations were in highly general terms without providing specifics or instances where the IDF violated its code of conduct. Not sure yet where this is going to lead. Ya’alon served as Defense Minister under Netanyahu about 10 years ago. But in the interest of strengthening a fragile coalition in a government he led at that time, Netanyahu replaced Ya’alon as Defense Minister which caused Ya’alon to leave the government at that time in anger, only to become a vocal opponent to Netanyahu. He is widely respected for his military achievements which included leading the efforts to quell the Second Intifada. He was Chief of Staff in February 2005 when the Ariel Sharon Government pushed through the evacuation of the Israeli population from Gaza, called the disengagement. He opposed the disengagement plan at the time and was “pushed” out of his role as a consequence. So charges like this coming from him are surprising many people here. Ya’alon was severely criticized by former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant accusing Ya’alon of lying to serve his own personal cause. Gallant wrote on his x.com page:
Ya’alon’s words are a lie that helps our enemy and hurts Israel. I saw the IDF fighters and commanders up close as I led the difficult war against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran. The IDF acted in accordance with the highest standards that can be applied in the complex and difficult war that was forced upon us. The instructions and orders were always given in accordance with the law and in the spirit of the IDF. I suggest that Ya’alon learn the facts, take it back, and apologize to IDF fighters.
You may recall my reports on the arrests of key members of the Prime Minister’s Office on charges of leaking highly sensitive documents to the foreign press. The Prime Minister and key members of his government are livid with these arrests claiming that there were many other instances of leaks that the Shin Bet Agency declined to investigate and prosecute. Well this government is now moving forward with legislation which would grant immunity to members of the defense establishment who pass classified information to the prime minister or defense minister without authorization. It is being called the Feldstein Law after Eli Feldstein who is currently incarcerated for passing on this highly sensitive information to the foreign press. I guess this government intends to pass legislation for the sole purpose of securing the release of a staff member who violated the law. Meanwhile Ronen Bar, the head of the Shin Bet Service that is responsible for the investigation and arrest defended the integrity of the agency. He says that the processes used to investigate and prosecute Feldstein are identical to the processes that are followed during investigations conducted internally. He says that the government is interfering with the operation of his agency for purely political purposes. Soon after the arrest Prime Minister Netanyahu went on live TV accusing the Shin Bet Service of treating the suspects like they were the worst terrorists. Bar went further in his statements in his criticism for the lack of an effective investigation into the defense establishment and the government regarding what led up to October 7. Specifically,
As far as I know, members of the defense establishment, myself included, were the first (and to date almost the only) people to admit to their responsibility for October 7. The first to call for the opening of a state commission of inquiry that would put an end to the conspiracies, that would give a little comfort to those who lost those most dear to them, and that would lead to the necessary correction — was the Shin Bet, immediately after the war erupted.
Ronen Bar is not the only party vocally opposing this ridiculous Feldstein Law. Attorney General Gali Baharav-Miara publicly announced her opposition to the legislation claiming that it is “improper political interference” in a criminal case concerning individuals close to the Prime Minister. In my view she is 100% correct in her assessment.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
You can read a pretty good assessment of the situation in Syria here.
And if events in Syria are causing your head to spin you are not alone. Here is a great analysis from Ron Ben Yishai trying to explain what is going on to those of us without a play sheet.