Today’s Image
That is Peter O’Toole and Omar Sharif out of a scene from the 1962 movie blockbuster, Lawrence of Arabia. The movie is based on the true story of T. E. Lawrence who was dispatched by the British in 1916 on a mission to try and unite the Arab tribes in what is now Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Iraq for the purpose of fighting the Ottoman Turks. His mission succeeded but the promises he made to the various tribes were broken mostly because of their own inability to refrain from fighting each other. I mention all this because former Israeli Ambassador to the US Michael Oren has recently written an opinion piece arguing that “nothing has changed”. You can read it here.
Thank You
I am back in Israel now and will resume regular posts. The level of activity has subsided a bit so I will attempt to post 3-4 issues per week as a daily update no longer seems relevant. Thank you all, for your patience.
Casualties
Since my last post on December 23, 2023 19 IDF soldiers have been killed in action:
Cpt. Yair Yakov Shushan - 23 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Staff Sgt. Yahav Hadar - 20 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Staff Sgt. Guy Karmiel - 20 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Staff Sgt. Yoav Feffer - 19 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Staff Sgt. Aviel Wiseman - 20 (Z’’L)) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Cpt. (res.) Amit Levi - 35 (Z’’L) during operations in Central Gaza,
Maj. Hod Shriebman - 27 (Z’’L) during operations in Central Gaza,
Sgt. Uriel Peretz - 23, (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
First Sgt. Yuval Shoham - 22 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Maj. (res.) Dvir Zion Revah - 28 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Cpt. Eitan Israel Shiknazi - 24 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
First Sgt. Kenew Kasa - 22 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
First Sgt. Ido Samiach - 20 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
First Sgt. Nevo Fisher - 20 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
First Sgt. Matityahu Ya’akov Perel (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
First Sgt. Danila Diakov - 21 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Sgt. Yahav Ma’ayan - 19 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Sgt. Eliav Astuker - 19 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza,
Sgt. Maj. (res.) - 37 (Z’’L) during operations in Northern Gaza.
The total number of IDF casualties due to fighting in Israel (in the direct aftermath of the October 7 attack), Gaza and Lebanon now number 835. For purposes of comparison:
776 IDF soldiers died in combat during the 1967 Six Day War,
2,656 IDF soldiers died in combat during the 1973 Yom Kippur War and
an estimated 4,000 soldiers from the pre-state Israel died during the 1948 War of Independence.
You will notice two main threads in these casualties listed above. First, only a small fraction were reservists. Most of the reservists who have been serving on and off for the past 15 months served an estimated 280 days out of the some 460 days of this war. Many have now been released from their obligations and are not expected to be called up for some time to come. So most of the fighting in Gaza now is being done by standard IDF army divisions. Likewise in Southern Lebanon many of the reservists have been released from duty. But, should the current round of hostage/ceasefire negotiations fail it is expected that a major new offensive will be launched in Gaza which might require some of the reservists to be called back into service.
You will also notice that all the casualties are in Northern and Central Gaza. This is where the remaining two Hamas battalions exist. Operations in Jabaliya, Beit Hanoun and Beit Lahiya were launched in December to root out Hamas combatants who had regrouped in Northern Gaza. Many homes were booby trapped and IED mines laid in advance of the IDF operations there. These were the main causes for many of the casualties reported.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
During the last week of December 2-3 rockets were fired from within Gaza. All were neutralized resulting in neither injuries nor damage. The IDF responded with aerial precisely targeted missiles fired at the locations from which the rockets were fired.
From about January 1 through January 9, 2025 Israel was experiencing a daily ballistic missile or drone fired from Yemen by the Houthis. But, this has largely subsided until today when the IDF intercepted a ballistic missile fired by the Houthis.
Lebanon Front
For the most part the ceasefire has been holding. Mainly, there have been no IDF aerial bombings in or around the Lebanese capital of Beirut. But the IDF continues to find underground bunkers and rocket launchers in Southern Lebanon, destroying them as they are found. Israel has also taken liberties to attack and destroy Hezbollah munitions storage and manufacturing facilities in the Beak’s Valley along the border with Syria. Technically these are violations of the ceasefire agreement at a certain level. However, Israel insists that it retains the right to take action against the re-arming of Hezbollah when the Lebanese Army Forces and/or UNIFIL forces neglect to do so. This is likely to continue in the months ahead.
To some extent IDF forces have withdrawn for specific parts of Southern Lebanon when they see Lebanese Regular Army Forces stepping in to take over security responsibilities.
Gaza Front
In an effort to catch up to current events I am summarizing a few of the more significant operations since my last post.
One of the operations that received the most coverage and worldwide criticism was the IDF operation targeting the Kamal Adwan Hospital in Beit Lahiya, Northern Gaza. These took place during the last week of 2023 as the IDF was completing its major operations in Northern Gaza. Hamas has made a point to use hospitals as operational centers for its military forces. This hospital was no exception. The IDF surrounded the facility and announced its intentions. Then it provided generators and cleared routes for an orderly evacuation of the staff and patients. Many Hamas combatants tried to disguise as staff and patients but were effectively screened by the IDF forces. Altogether more than 75 patients and 185 medical staff were successfully evacuated to a nearby school without incident or casualty. At the same time the IDF captured 240 suspected Hamas combatants who were conducting military operations from within the hospital premises. The arrests included the hospital’s Director who is believed to be a commander in the Hamas military wing. Here you can watch one of the captured combatants describe how Hamas used the hospital to conduct its routine military operations. You can also watch this video clip of a Hamas operative planting a bomb right outside a hospital in Gaza.
On Wednesday of last week the IDF struck a former school in Jabaliya that was being used by Hamas combatants to plan and conduct attacks. The facility was under surveillance for some time before the aerial attack to ensure minimal civilian casualties.
On Thursday of last week the IDF successfully assassinated two major targets inside Gaza, Abu Namus and Mohammed al-Tarq. Both were killed by jet aircraft fired missiles with limited damage. Namus was the Gaza City Hamas Battalion Commander and al-Tarq was Deputy Commander of Hamas’ Sabra Battalion, a neighborhood in Gaza City.
Yemen Front
Since the Hamas attack on October 7, 2023 the Houthis have been responsible for the launch of some 40 ballistic missiles and 320 drones targeting Israel. Two of the 320 drones made substantive damage inside Israel. All the rest were either intercepted, fell in open areas or failed en route. All the missiles were intercepted but in two cases shrapnel from the aerial explosions caused damage or injuries. In the past month the Houthis have picked up their pace of attacks despite two effective aerial operations conducted against their facilities resulting in daily sirens across much of the center of Israel.
On Friday, Jan. 10, the Israel Air Force launched its third mission against Houthi positions in Yemen. About 20 aircraft were involved in the operation including refueling ship and reconnaissance jets. The targets included the main power plant near the Yemeni capital of Sanaa, the main port of Hodeidah (the third time the port has been struck) and other ports around Ras Isa. This mission had been coordinated with USA Centcom forces and the UK Air Force who also conducted aerial bombardments of various Houthi positions. Since this attack the nearly daily launch of a ballistic missile, and occasional drone, by the Houthis targeting Israel has stopped. It is likely only a matter of time before they resume in the future. There is considerable debate in Israel regarding whether ongoing missions against the Houthis is the proper approach. There is more and more talk that the focus should be on Iran who supplies and trains the Houthis.
Meanwhile there are reports that the Houthis are gearing up to launch a full offensive to take over the parts of Yemen that remain outside their control. Families of the terror organization leadership have been moved abroad to Iran.
Syria/Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye Fronts
And here is a sick laugh for the day. The new Syrian Foreign Minister issued a statement 3 days ago warning the Islamic Republic of Iran not to interfere or spread chaos in his country. And in reply Iran’s foreign ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei replied, “We reject the baseless accusations by some media… against Iran over interfering in Syria’s internal affairs. It is necessary to prevent the spread of insecurity and violence… and ensure the security of Syrian citizens.” I guess that in the eyes of Iran building chemical weapons factories in Syria, funding Hezbollah to repress the Syrian population, operating arms factories within Syria, manufacturing drugs and distributing them from Syria, etc., etc., etc., doesn’t qualify for interference in the sovereignty of a country??? Iran is such a sick excuse for a country. Really pathetic.
Hostages/Ceasefire
The big news this week is what appears to be an imminent hostage/ceasefire deal. Enough has been leaked through various sources about the deal that one can construct the key deal points. The “Deal” consists of 3 stages:
Stage 1
Targeted to last 42 days.
33 hostages are to be freed. They are to include all female, children and elderly as well as injured males. All are living, according to the terms of the deal.
Selected Palestinian Arab prisoners in Israeli jails are to be released consisting of: Arab prisoners who were previously released in the 2011 exchange but subsequently arrested for offenses, an estimated 1,000 Arab women/minors in Israeli prisons arrested for rock throwing, aiding and abetting terror activities, etc. In addition, 200 Arab terrorists with blood on their hands are to be released to a third party country, currently not disclosed but presumed to be either Qatar, Turkey or Iran.
The actual number of prisoners in Israeli jails to be released is dependent on how many of the 33 hostages are actually alive vs. dead.
IDF troops will maintain some presence on the Philadelphi Corridor abutting the Gaza border with Egypt. Israel will maintain a full security corridor around the full perimeter of Gaza of somewhere between 1 to 1.5 km. It is not clear yet at which stage the IDF would evacuate the Netzarim Corridor splitting Gaza in half.
There is to be a significant increase in aid inbound into Gaza.
Negotiations on Stage 2 are to commence after 16 days into Stage 1
There are fewer details regarding Stage 2 but it is assumed to include the following:
The IDF will evacuate most of the Netzarim Corridor and permit residents of Northern Gaza to return to their cities and towns. There is some mechanism in place to enable cameras in place at checkpoints so that the IDF can screen the returning population to ensure that none were Hamas combatants.
All the remaining living male hostages, most of whom are IDF soldiers, are to be returned. In return it is expected that many terrorists in Israeli prisons will be released but the number has yet to be announced. Most likely it is expected to be in the range of 1-2,000. Again, it is not likely that they will be released to either Gaza or Judea/Samaria.
It is not clear what happens at the Philadelphi Corridor but it is clear that Israel will maintain the security perimeter around Gaza. The security perimeter is presumed to mean that it is a “no man’s land” and anyone found trying to enter the area will be subject to a “shoot to kill” order.
Stage 3 talks about some kind of full withdrawal and a release of all living and dead hostages. In my view I doubt that discussions will get that far.
According to sources in the Israeli press, Hamas senior officials have approved the negotiated deal and they are waiting for the approval of Mohammed Sinwar, who is the ranking Hamas leader in Gaza now.
In Israel the deal will have to be approved by the Cabinet. It is expected that the far right party led by Itamar Ben Gvir will exit the coalition rather than vote in favor of the deal. The other right wing party led by Bezalel Smotrich had declared that it cannot vote in favor of the deal but it is not clear if they would bolt the government or not. Opposition parties led by Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid have announced that they would vote with the government on the issue of the hostage deal if needed. If Ben Gvir’s party were to leave the government the coalition would still survive because a couple of months ago Netanyahu recruited Gideon Sa’ar and his other 3 party members into the coalition. However, if Smotrich would bolt the coalition the government would fall and there would be new elections. However, the hostage deal would likely get cabinet approval. Most likely there will be some legal challenges to the deal that would reach the Supreme Court but there is little chance that the courts would block the deal.
Aid
COGAT (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories), an Israeli Government run agency, reports that yesterday 219 trucks worth of aid entered Gaza and unloaded in the staging areas. From that Aid NGOs distributed 124 trucks worth of aid leaving more than the equivalent of 800 trucks worth of aid still waiting for distribution. In their data, COGAT identifies that the most active NGO is the World Food Program. It, together with the Egyptian Red Crescent, are responsible for the majority of aid. UNRWA falls in a distant third place.
International
There is an international NGO called Hind Rajab Foundation HRF that has made its mission to force the International Criminal Court to prosecute any and all IDF soldiers or reservists that might enter a country with jurisdiction of the ICC. They attempted to get an Israeli reservist arrested in Brazil just two weeks ago. And today they filed a case in Italy with the ICC to try and have Maj. General Ghassan Alian arrested while vacationing in Italy. Alian is an Israeli-Druze who heads the Coordinator of Government Activities in the Territories (COGAT). That is the organization responsible for overseeing the aid going into Gaza including leading the polio vaccination campaign finished about 4 months ago. It is not clear yet how this will end.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
The editor of the Times of Israel interviewed, at length, US Ambassador to Israel Jack Lew as he leaves his post with the outgoing Biden Administration. It is a long read but it presents the position of Biden’s very strong support for Israel during the last 15 months including an elaboration on the suspension of arms shipments, which he claims did not happen. Certainly he knows much more about the details of who said or did what during this period. But I differ with his warning to Israel that makes the headline of the article “You can’t ignore the impact of this war on future US policymakers”. Israel has gone through many difficult periods with the USA, even harder than this past year. Yet the relationship has endured because of the shared values and spirit of the two countries.
I found this analysis by Ron Ben Yishai a very useful read… and sobering. The government thinks that it can come up with a day after plan excluding the Palestinian Authority. I agree with Ben Yishai that this is a lot of wishful thinking and unlikely.
Any chance the houthis are trying to draw in the IDF to soften up their internal opposition?