Today’s Image
The four female hostages released today, with their families, after reaching Israel today.
Casualties
No casualties have been reported by the IDF for the past 6 days.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
There have been no aerial explosives directed at Israel for the past 8 days.
Hostages/Ceasefire
Today four female IDF soldiers kidnapped by Hamas on October 7 were released. Their images were captured in this photo taken earlier today, Saturday, in Gaza alongside two of their fit and well fed captors from Hamas’s newly constituted youth brigade. From left to right they are: Karina Ariev, Liri Albag, Daniella Gilboa and Naama Levy. Gilboa is a dual citizen Israel and Bulgaria. They are now in Israel united with their families and under hospital care/supervision at Beilinson Hospital. There is a fifth female hostage that was supposed to be released today per the agreement, Arbel Yehud. Her absence is causing a bit of a stir. Hamas insists that she is alive and will be returned next Saturday, but Israel is insisting that Hamas abide by the terms of the agreement and release her in advance of next Saturday. In the meantime, the IDF is maintaining its forces in the Netzarim Corridor. By the terms of the ceasefire, the IDF was to evacuate this part of Gaza as part of enabling the residents of Northern Gaza to return to their cities and towns. But the IDF is staying until Yehud is released.
Many of you might be saying to yourselves that this seems like Israel is making a big deal out of a technical snag. In Western way of thinking that is logical. But given past experiences with Hamas any minor infraction leads to more infractions so Israel is demanding that Hamas stick to the “letter” of the agreement. Because of this infraction, the IDF distributed by air and sent text messages to Gazans informing them that they should not attempt to cross into the Netzarim Corridor. But today several dozen attempted to do just that, moving on armed IDF soldiers. The soldiers fired into the air to warn the approaching crowd to stop, but that did not deter them. As a result of the imminent threat to their safety, the soldiers fired killing one and injuring six before the crowd would disperse. It looks as if the corridor will remain closed to traffic until this is sorted out.
While the actual number to be released next week has not been disclosed, there are two remaining female Israeli hostages - Arbel Yehud and Agam Berger. Agam and the four Israelis released today were all IDF soldiers “manning” observation screens on October 7, 2023. They and their colleagues alerted their superiors of suspicious and unusual activity on October 6, the night before. Their warnings and others signs of unusual behavior were ignored by their superiors. In addition to these two women there are a number of ill males on the release list. I do not know the actual number.
In exchange for the four female soldiers released today, Israel released 200 prisoners from Gaza, Judea/Samaria and Jerusalem. According to my understanding of the terms of this agreement, 120 of these were to be prisoners serving one or more life sentences as they were convicted of murdering one or more people. Of these 200 prisoners, released today, 12 are being returned to Gaza, 118 were released to Ramallah in Southern Samaria and 70 were transported to the border crossing with Egypt. Here you can see a video of the parade that took place in Ramallah today with some of the released prisoners. They are to be held in Egypt until a third party country can be found that will take them. Presumably these 70 are a subset of those serving life sentences released. So presumably 20 are being released to either Gaza or Ramallah. It was not made clear which ones were released where nor the criteria used to discriminate.
These 70 terrorists are to held in Cairo until a country steps up willing to take them. At least for now, they will not be able to enter Gaza. Once the border opens between Gaza and Egypt we have not been told how they will be prevented from entering Gaza.
Two of the prisoners slated for release refused to be returned to Gaza. After a set of long negotiations, one of them finally agreed to board the bus for Gaza. But the other insisted so a different prisoner on the list had to be secured. No reason was given publicly but it is my guess that they fear retribution from Hamas leadership.
Hamas leadership has already started its revenge campaign. Six residents of Gaza have been execute, since the signing of the ceasefire deal, on claims they collaborated with Israel. Some ten others have been shot in the foot.
Late this week, according to the agreement, discussions are to start on Phase 2. President Trump’s Middle East Envoy, Steve Witikoff, is supposed to come for a visit. He has requested to visit both Israel and Gaza. Since he insisted that the IDF vacate from Gaza as part of “The Deal” I wonder who will take responsibility for his security?? Witikoff has now also been granted oversight of discussions with Iran. Witikoff has close associations with the Qatari Government resulting from Real Estate dealings in New York.
Lebanon Front
For the moment the IDF has maintained its positions in Southern Lebanon. The Lebanese Armed Forces are not only holding back on displacing Hezbollah forces in Southern Lebanon, thereby avoiding its responsibilities under the ceasefire agreement there are documented reports that the Shi'ite forces under its command are actively assisting Hezbollah resume control over this area. I believe that it will be extremely difficult for IDF forces to leave Southern Lebanon under these conditions. Meanwhile, this week the IDF uncovered more underground bunkers and rocket launchers in Southern Lebanon. Here you can see videos taken of their destruction.
Syria Front
IDF forces remain in the buffer zone on Syrian territory. All the public calls for their removal have stopped for the moment. The IDF is closely watching events in Syria. Despite the promises of the new rebel government many liberties are being sacrificed so that strict Islamic Sharia Law can be enforced. This is still a very volatile situation and it is not at all clear what is going to happen next.
Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye Fronts
Iran said that it was conducting naval military drills in the Arabian Gulf. This is another amongst a series of attempts to show strength and power in advance of any operation against the Islamic Regime in the near future.
IDF/Government
There are the elements of a “perfect storm” forming that will make it extremely difficult for this government coalition to hold together. So far the far right extremist party run by Itamar Ben Gvir has left the government coalition. That leaves Netanyahu with a small majority. That being said, Ben Gvir has stated that his party will continue voting with the government in order to avoid the chance that new elections will be held and a more centrist government comes to power. Meanwhile, he has had to make promises to the other extreme right party run by Bezalel Smotritch. Smotrich voted against “The Deal” but announced that he would not step down from this government. In return, he received some concessions from Prime Minister Netanyahu pertaining to the expansion of towns in Judea/Samaria (West Bank) as well as an understanding that the IDF would return to fighting once Phase 1 was complete and the 33 hostages were recovered. It will be difficult for Netanyahu to avoid pressure from Witikoff and Trump in moving forward with Phase 2. I believe that the key will be what price Hamas demands in terms of the number of terrorists that must be released in exchange.
The other issue coming to a head is the draft bill of the Ultra-Orthodox. So far a bill has not emerged from the Knesset Committee headed by Likud Minister Yuli Edelstein because he insists that the bill receive wide support across both the government and opposition. Moreover, the Attorney General has stated that the bill being pushed by Defense Minister Katz does not comply with the minimal requirements set down by the Supreme Court that demands equal treatment for all citizens. For the moment this issue is deadlocked. The two ultra-orthodox parties in the coalition have made it clear that they will bolt the coalition should the ultra-orthodox not retain their exemption from service. They threaten to hold up the budget unless their demands are met.
The third issue is the budget. Legally a government must dissolve itself if it cannot pass a budget for the upcoming year. If the ultra-orthodox parties block the budget, the government will fall. I believe, but am not certain, that this will come to a head towards the end of February. The irony is that should this government fall, negotiations on Phase 2 are likely to be held up. Moreover, the next government will, not support the demands of either the ultra-orthodox or extreme parties. So no members of this coalition gain by seeing the coalition come apart, but yet all these threats persist.
Netanyahu has gained a reputation over his long career of working political magic to keep a coalition together when it serves his interests. He procrastinates until the last second before dire events unfold to force through some interim agreement that gets his government through the crisis. So despite all these elements threatening this government he may still find a way to keep things together.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
Here is a 10 minute video interview with Colonel Grisha Yakubovich who was military governor of Gaza until the IDF withdrawal in 2005. He has very direct and intimate knowledge of the thinking there and what might happen next. His interviewer is a well known political figure in Israeli politics who emigrated to Israel from France.
And here is another analysis from the well respected Israeli correspondent, Ben Dror Yemini, on how the real target for future Israeli operations must be Tehran, without distractions from the Houthis in Yemen.