Today’s Image
I do not expect much sympathy but it is cold here in Israel and has been raining much of the past week. Rain in Israel is always good. And this image shows snow up on the Golan Heights. By now the ski slope would be opened but it is in current use by the IDF holding positions on Mt. Hermon not just on the Israeli side, but also on the Lebanese and Syrian sides. The IDF has a special Alpine Unit, but my guess is that the Finns are better at this kind of thing than Israelis.
My View - Hamas Violating Hostage/Ceasefire Agreement
In the event that the Western Press is not covering this, on Monday of this week Hamas announced that it will delay the release of the hostages set for release this Saturday, without giving an alternative date. They accuse Israel of violating the deal. IDF troops shot at Gazans that were approaching the carved out no man’s land on the perimeter of Gaza. First they fired warning shots and when the crown would not stop shots were fired into the crowd. Two people died. But this is not the main issue forming the complaint of Hamas. They insist that they were guaranteed caravans in order to house the Gazans. But Israel is not responsible for providing these, it is the aid agencies who say that they are just late in providing them.
I want my readers to make serious note as to who, and who is not, talking about this serious violation. President Trump made note of it and said, off the cuff, that if all the hostages are not released by Saturday that there should be hell to pay. NO OTHER LEADER IN EUROPE, MIDDLE EAST NORTH AMERICA, ASIA OR SOUTH AMERICA HAS SAID A WORD. But you will see all these leaders will issue statements castigating Israel and insisting that the UN Security Council pass a resolution condemning Israel when it relaunches the war in response to Hamas’s violations of the terms of the deal.
There are many theories being circulated here in Israel as to why Hamas is doing this. First, I need to point out that the statement about delaying the release came from the Hamas leadership in Gaza, not the leadership living in Qatar, Lebanon and Turkiye. Second, the claims made by Hamas justifying their position are bogus. Among the theories are:
Hostage Treatment is Criminal
By now you must have seen the images and videos of the recently released male prisoners. Medical professionals in Israel note that they were deliberately starved. You didn’t see any of the Hamas armed guards dressed in their new uniforms parading in front of world cameras looking starved. No, the hostages have been deliberately starved. Moreover, interviews with the hostages make it clear that they were subjected to torture. Some of them were hung for days suspended by their feet and subjected to cigarettes burns from their torturers. Some were left without shoes for the entire term of 190+ days, in tunnels without seeing sunlight during this entire time. Those men released were civilians, beyond the age of serving in reserve duty. The female soldiers released 2 weeks ago were also starved and tortured, but were well fed for more than a couple weeks before their release. So, according to this theory, Hamas is worried that the hostages due to be released this Saturday are in as bad, or worse, condition and they need time to feed them so they don’t look so starved. You can read descriptions of their treatments in these reports - “Hamas has ordered systematic starvation of male hostages”, “Released hostage Eli Sharabi 'went through things the eye and the heart cannot comprehend”, “Freed Israeli Hostages: What They Endured in Captivity and How They Survived”, “Arbel Yehud was held in isolation for 482 days”, “IDF soldiers released from captivity were held by senior Hamas terrorist”, “Yarden Bibas was held in moldy tunnels, with almost no food”, “bound-gagged-and-starved-released-hostages-report-severe-mistreatment-by-captors”
Hamas Wants to Demand More
According to this view Hamas is doing this for the sole purpose of demanding more during the Phase 1 and then going into Phase 2 negotiations. Those pushing this view note that the warning from Hamas came at the beginning of the week so that the mediators could be pressured to get concessions from Israel before the critical moment comes this Saturday. Further, by saying that the release is being delayed, not canceled, the proponents of this view argue that this is just a signal they want more. Creating a temporary crisis is a standard negotiating tactic in both business and international negotiations. President Trump is doing this in the first month of his taking office on many fronts. The statement from Hamas read that:
The delay in releasing prisoners is a warning message to Israel and a means to pressure it into strictly adhering to the agreement.
Yet Israel cannot accede to any changes in the Phase 1 elements of the agreement. Otherwise there will be an endless number of crises created by Hamas as it will think it can get away with making more demands outside the basis of the negotiated agreement. Welcome to the Middle East. But, I believe that Hamas leadership inside Gaza is miscalculating as they have done many times over the past 16 months. They somehow think that the protestors will increase the pressure on the government to do more, particularly in light of the dire circumstances of the recently released hostages. But this is a major miscalculation. If the Israeli public begins to see the deal collapsing because Hamas is reneging on it commitments to deliver the living hostages, everyone will want to have the IDF re-engage and use everything in its arsenal to wreak a firestorm on Gaza. You can read a good arguments for much of this position in this Op-Ed written by Ron Ben Yishai in Yediot Ahranot, the largest newspaper in Israel.
More Hostages Died in Captivity
In this morbid theory, that I have heard from individuals but not seen anything published, due to their treatment more of the hostages have died at the hands of Hamas than they have admitted previously. In an attempt to cause the Phase 1 ceasefire to continue they intend to drag out the release of other hostages in Phase 1 because the actual number of living is less than what they claim.
In response to Hamas’s public statement about delaying the release of the hostages from this Saturday the Israeli Security Cabinet met while requesting that the Security Establishment Leadership - IDF, Mossad, Shin Bet, etc. - be present. Then on Monday night Prime Minister Netanyahu got in front of the cameras and read a statement that was televised live across the country. In that statement he announced that if Hamas “does not release the hostages” this Saturday it will have violated its basic obligations in the agreement and Israel will resume the war. What he didn’t say was whether the demand was that Hamas release ALL the hostages this Saturday, as President Trump has demanded, or just those it was obligated to under the agreement. It is my belief that this was deliberately left vague. The Prime Minister could not look less hawkish on this issue than the US President. But, if Hamas releases the scheduled hostage release this Saturday I am confident that everything will return back to the terms outlined in the agreement… and negotiations on Phase 2 will proceed as scheduled. The IDF estimates that if the war resumes some of the hostages will be deliberately killed. Some are afraid that it could be televised like during the days of ISIS. But Hamas is just another brand of ISIS.
Earlier today Secretary of State Marco Rubio, when interviewed, said that the President wants to see all the hostages released and is tired of this dribs and drabs coming out each week. He said that the Trump Administration was serious in its demands to have all the hostages out by this Saturday. The US Middle East Envoy Steve Witkoff posted on his x.com account:
Hamas is a terrorist organization. They can't be allowed to be a part of the government in Gaza. It's an unhealthy situation. They need to go. The President said all that we all need to know, which is: Saturday, 12 o'clock.
President Isaac Herzog said today that Israel insists that all the hostages come back as soon as possible:
We are getting reports about our hostages being in duress, tortured, and in the worst of conditions that any human being can suffer, and we want to see all of them back as soon as possible, and we insist that all of them come back as soon as possible.
Meanwhile, Hamas has sent its negotiating delegation to Cairo. Egypt and Qatar are reportedly trying to save the deal, whatever that means. As far as I know the Israeli delegation has returned from Qatar awaiting what happens on Saturday.
Special
Previously I had taken the liberty to quote a post issued by a distant friend, Hillel Fuld, as he has been consistently eloquent on stating the obvious about the situation from an Israeli perspective. Fuld is a Social Media giant with many, many followers. Here is what he wrote about a week ago, pointing out the consistency by which the messages from Gaza are lies:
“Gaza was an open air prison! That’s why we attacked on 10/7!”- Gazans
“Gaza was paradise till those Zionists destroyed it!” - Also Gazans
“The Zionists are lying about 10/7!” - Gazans
“10/7 was the proudest day of our history. We’ll do it over and over!” - Also Gazans
“We are refugees in Gaza!” -Gazans
“We are not leaving Gaza. It’s our home!” - Also Gazans
“There is no food in Gaza!” - Gazans
“The hostages are fed well!” - Also Gazans
“The Zionists are Nazis!” - Gazans
“Hitler was right. Now pardon me while I go read my favorite book, mein kampf. I have a few copies at my house.” - Also Gazans
“The Zionists are killing our innocent kids!” - Gazans
“Our children will murder the Jews wherever they find them! They will grow up to be Shahids!” - Also Gazans
“The Zionists are committing genocide. They’re killing us all and destroying Gaza! There’s nothing left!” - Gazans
“We’ve defeated the Zionists!” - Also Gazans
Who wants to tell them?
You don’t have to prove them wrong. They do a good job at it themselves.
Casualties
There have been no IDF or civilian casualties in the past ten days.
Rockets & Missiles & Drones
There have been no aerial explosives directed at Israel for the past 21 days.
Lebanon Front
The extension of the Lebanese ceasefire deal is scheduled to come due in a week. The US has informed Israel that it must evacuate IDF troops from Southern Lebanon by the 18th, the end of the extension. Israel has formally requested another extension to the end of the month. So far it has been rejected by the Lebanese. The IDF claims that the Lebanese Army has still not fully deployed its forces throughout Southern Lebanon and Hezbollah is maintaining forces in the area. Today, the US decided to lend its support to Israel and suggest to the parties that it be allowed to maintain a limited number of positions through the end of the month. The Lebanese have not responded as of yet. As I am wrapping up writing this there are reports from Lebanon that they have agreed to permit the IDF to remain until the end of the Muslim holiday of Ramadan, about the end of March.
Yesterday, the IDF sent fighter jets to the border area between Lebanon and Syria where it fired missiles at the underground cross border tunnel between the countries used for smuggling weapons to Hezbollah.
Gaza Front
The IDF initiated an air strike in Southern Gaza near the Philadelphi Corridor when a drone entered Gaza originating from Egypt. It was not a military drone but one used for smuggling. The IDF has identified several instances of attempts to smuggle arms in this way over the past few months. The air strike killed the one of the smugglers, injuring the other.
There are reports that Hamas has instructed its senior officials to cease using mobile phones as they fear that the war will start again.
Syria Front
Four days ago the IDF launched an aerial attack on an arms storage facility operated by Hamas in Southern Syria. You can see a video here. Hamas has been, with Iran’s help, smuggling weapons through Jordan into Judea & Samaria (West Bank) causing many terror attempts over the past year. Some of those arms were stored here as they made their way to Jenin and nearby locations.
Iran/Jordan/Egypt/Iraq/Turkiye Fronts
Egypt’s President Sissi has been invited to visit Washington DC and President Trump. He announced that if a Gaza relocation plan is on the agenda to be discussed he will not attend. In a separate announcement, Egypt said that it was preparing a plan that would enable the rebuilding of Gaza while leaving its residents in place.
In the Muslim world, stepping on an image of someone is a major insult as is throwing one shoe. Well here you can see the entrance to the Jordanian Government’s Trade Union Headquarters where all entrants must step on an Israeli Flag. Supposedly we have a peace treaty with this country. The woman you see standing on the Magan David is Jumana Ghunaimat, Minister of Media Affairs and Communications. She is also the Government’s Spokesperson. Needless to say the Jordanian Government does nothing, unlike Saudi Arabia, to modify its school curriculum in an effort to encourage peaceful coexistence with Israel. Some Peace Partner we have there.
IDF/Government
About three weeks ago I reported that Chief of Staff Lt. General Herzi Halevi announced that he would be resigning from his position. About 1 ½ weeks ago the Minister of Defense reduced the list of three candidates to one - Maj. Gen. (reserve) Eyal Zamir. This decision was supported not just be the government but also the opposition parties. Today, Zamir sailed through the Knesset Committee that approved his nomination. He has one last hurdle to pass through the Cabinet and that should happen by the end of the month.
And the flow of money from Qatar doe not appear to stop with US Ivy League Universities. Here is a report of the Opposition Leader Yair Lapid demanding that the Attorney General launch an investigation into the Prime Minister’s Office. The claim is with regards to a report on Israel’s TV Channel 12 that members of the Prime Minister’s Staff were paid by a public relations firm receiving money directly from the Qatari Foreign Ministry for the purpose of promoting Qatar’s image in Israel during the course of the war. This report appeared previously in the far left wing newspaper Ha'aretz. I do not see how the Attorney General can ignore this. This is very serious.
Some of the cases of violations of IDF Code of Conduct are finally making their way through the army’s legal system and resulting in sentences. Here is one example recently reported of an IDF reservist receiving 7 months behind bars for maltreatment of an Arab detainee at Sde Teiman, the improvised detainment facility built for those captured during the conflict in Gaza.
The government announced today that schools in the northern part of Israel along the Lebanese border will reopen starting in March. It is expected that this should cause many families to start the process of moving back.
Hostage/Ceasefire Agreement
Families of the hostages, at least 3 of them, announced today that they have been shown “signs of life” of their loved ones still in captivity in Gaza. No one provided details on how they know but most likely it was material provided them by the IDF Intelligence. It is possible that this was done now as Hamas is trying to push the families to intensify their protests for the purpose of putting internal pressure on the government.
International
Today the Committee to Protect Journalists issued a report claiming that Israel is responsible for 70%, or 124, of the deaths of journalists during 2024. Israel responded by saying that all those killed during the Gaza operations were Hamas terrorists and it has the evidence to back up its statement.
And In Your Copious Spare Time…
I reported last time that Egypt was crossing the terms of its Peace Treaty with Israel due to a large and increasing deployment of troops in the Sinai. Here you can read more about this and the danger it presents. During the height of ISIS, there were signs of collaboration with Hamas. Egypt was seeing issues in the Sinai and needed to increase its forces to fight off the threat. But it now appears that Egypt has exceeded what Israel had previously agreed to.
And here is an exclusive report from reporter Yonah Jeremy Bob on how Israel almost wiped out Hezbollah just days after October 7. This, I highly recommend you read.
And here is an interesting take on President Trump’s statements, now a week and a lifetime ago, regarding Gaza from the pages of Tablet Magazine. Well worth your time to read.
Eric, This is very interesting and I read The Tablet article as well. I’ve been having trouble keeping up since a lot is changing here daily, but thanks for your ongoing perspective.