October 508

My 311th post on The War

Today’s Image

Meet Omer Shem Tov, Tal Shoham, Eliya Cohen (top, from left to right), Avera Mengistu, Hisham al-Sayed and Omer Wenkert (bottom, from left to right). All six hostages were released this morning by Hamas as part of the last element in the First Phase of the Hostage/Ceasefire Agreement. The photo above is their “before” picture. Here is the photo of the hostages on their release today:

Avera Mengistu, upper left, has been held captive by Hamas for 3,821 days. He is of Ethiopian descent and suffers from some mental disorder. He actually just walked into Gaza by mistake, unsupervised, years ago while walking alone along the Zikim Beach that borders Gaza. IDF security cameras spotted him, but the troops did not reach him in time before he entered Gaza. Hisham al-Sayed, upper right, is a Bedouin from the Southern Israeli Bedouin town of Hura. He suffers from schizophrenia and a personality disorder. Previously he escaped the hospital where he remained in Southern Israel but was caught before walking into Gaza. Then he escaped a second time and evaded being stopped by the IDF before entering Gaza. He has also been held for ten years by Hamas against his will. Tal Shocham, upper middle, is a dual Israeli-Austrian citizen from the northern town of Maale Tzviya. He and his entire family were taken hostage by Hamas on October 7, 2023 while they were visiting family living on Kibbutz Be’eri. All his family was released in the hostage exchange in November, 2023. Other members of his wife’s family were killed during the attack. So far his family has prevented any details pertaining to his detention to be released to the public. Omer Shem Tov, lower left, was kidnapped while attending the Nova Music Festival on October 7, 2023. Omer Wenkert, lower middle, was kidnapped while attending the Nova Music Festival on October 7, 2023. He suffers from colitis. He was fed three dried dates per day for the past year in captivity. Eliya Cohen, lower right, was at the Nova Music Festival on October 7 when he and his girlfriend were taken hostage. His girlfriend was released back in November. Cohen was held in captivity chained to walls in a tunnel nearly his entire period of captivity. Cohen was injured on October 7 by a Hamas bullet and due to his injury was released today.

All six hostages were deliberately starved over the period of their captivity by Hamas. All were force fed over the past two weeks so that they wouldn’t look like holocaust victims, like previous released hostages. The families of the hostages are asking the media to refrain from detailing too much from their period of detention. But there are many reports of starvation, torture, isolation, lice, chained to walls, etc. Read this.

In return for the six live hostages released today, Israel is scheduled to release 157 terrorist prisoners from its jails. Among them are 50 terrorists serving life sentences, 60 who have long sentences and 47 who were previously released in the 2011 deal to release Gilad Schalit. Most of the ones carrying life sentences are supposed to be released to Egypt from where they are to be deported. Among those being released is a Khalil Jabarin who murdered US citizen Ari Fuld in 2018. Also, Omar al-Zaban who is a senior operative in Hamas serving 27 life sentences for terror attacks resulting in the death of 27 people. Also being released is Nael Barghouti who killed a bus driver in 1978. Altogether, Israel released nearly 2,000 prisoners during Phase 1 in exchange for 27 living hostages and 6 bodies.

Hostage/Ceasefire Agreement

Many of you have likely read or viewed the reports on the Bibas Family, who had lived on Kibbutz Nir Oz. They were kidnapped by Hamas on October 7 - Yarden (father), Shiri(mother), Ariel (son, 4 years old) and Kfir (infant, 9 months old). Yarden was released two weeks ago. As I had reported earlier the fact that the mother and two children were not released in the first week of the hostage/ceasefire deal meant that they were likely dead. On Thursday Hamas released four bodies, as part of the hostage/ceasefire deal. They claimed that the bodies included Shiri, Ariel and Kfir. Hamas staged an unbelievably macabre ceremony as part of the release of the bodies on Thursday. You can view part of it here, here and here. The staging of this event shows just how sick the Gaza society has become. People came with their children as if they were going to the zoo or a circus. People were sitting on roof tops serving food, smoking hookas. Everyone was in a celebratory mood. It was sick, sick, sick, sick… This is what happens to a people indoctrinated under UNRWA run schools teaching the glory of death and how to kill Jews. In any case, back to the Bibas Family Tragedy. Forensic experts in Israel examined all four bodies it received. Using DNA testing they confirmed the identity of the two children and Oded Lifshitz. Lifshitz was one of the founders of Nir Oz and a very prominent peace advocate who often drove Gazans to Israeli hospitals for treatment. But the fourth body was of an arbitrary female from Gaza and was not Shiri Bibas. On Friday, after being threatened by Israel, Hamas released the body of Shiri Bibas. She and her two children died of strangulation. One or more of their captors literally strangled the mother and two children with their bare hands. All three were killed within a month of their captivity, deliberately. Hamas had claimed that they had died during an aerial attack by the IDF during the course of the war. But all three were killed before the IDF even launched their ground offensive. Ask yourself, what kind of society produces people like this???

The last element in Phase 1 of the hostage/ceasefire deal is the release of four bodies scheduled for this Thursday. They have been identified already. So, now negotiations are supposed to start on Phase 2. Phase 2 is supposed to detail the conditions under which the remaining hostages are returned and the full withdrawal of IDF troops from Gaza, long term ceasefire. The government has stated that it would condition this stage on the exile of all the Hamas leadership from Gaza. I do not see Hamas agreeing to this. Moreover, I do not see Hamas ever releasing ALL the hostages.

At this point approximately 70 hostages remain in captivity in Gaza. The IDF believes that all but 24 are likely dead. They are all male.

IDF/Government

As I have reported previously, the government refuses to launch a State Investigation into what happened prior to October 7, 2023 and the operations that came after the brutal Hamas attack on the pretense that nothing should happen until the war is over. Meanwhile, the security forces - IDF, Shin Bet and Mossad - have all launched their own investigations. Today on Israel’s TV Channel 12, correspondent Omri Maniv, published a full expose on what happened within the Internal Security Force, Shin Bet, prior to the attack. The role of the Shin Bet is similar to that of the FBI and extends to intelligence within Gaza, Judea and Samaria. Here is a brief description of the report in English. According to these reports, Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar asked Prime Minister Netanyahu to approve the assassination of Yahya Sinwar only six days prior to the October 7 Hamas attack. The report also states that the Shin Bet misjudged the capabilities of Hamas. It did not believe that there was a serious threat from Hamas’s ground forces. However, successive heads of the Shin Bet had recognized the growing strength of Hamas and urged the government to authorize the killings of Sinwar and Mohammed Deif. Moreover, the heads of the security forces were opposed to the government’s policy of encouraging Qatar to pump money into Gaza. The Prime Minister’s Office has issued official denials that the recommendation to assassinate the Hamas leaders were made to the Prime Minister.

Casualties

There have been no IDF or civilian casualties in the past 21 days.

Rockets & Missiles & Drones

There have been no aerial explosives directed at Israel for the past 31 days.

Lebanon Front

The ceasefire extension passed on the 18th. IDF troops withdrew from Lebanon leaving forces at five isolated positions inside the Lebanese border.

These positions are being manned by an average 150 IDF soldiers having the ability to observe activities within Southern Lebanon. They are on elevated positions and within less than 500 meters of the blue line with Israel. The Lebanese Government has protested over the IDF remaining in these positions but Israel insists. There is no timetable for the IDF withdrawal from these positions. They are distanced far away from any civilian Lebanese populations. You can read more here.

Meanwhile the IDF retains freedom of action throughout sites within Lebanon outside of large population centers. Just before their evacuation on the 18th the IDF blew up an underground bunker inside Southern Lebanon holding massive arms stored by Hezbollah. You can see a video of the IDF operation against the facility here and here. And the IAF, Israeli Air Force, has struck sites along the Lebanese border with Syria with its many arms storage, manufacturing and smuggling operations. No doubt, this will be an ongoing activity by the IDF, just as it retains freedom of action inside Syria. Just today the IAF fired missiles at Hezbollah positions along the border between Lebanon and Syria.

Two days before the IDF was to evacuate from Lebanon, a group of 20 ultra-orthodox Israelis crossed the Lebanese border in an attempt to visit the tomb of a famous rabbi buried there - Rabbi Ashi. These numbskulls were identified and arrested. You can read more here.

Tomorrow, Sunday, Hezbollah is going to be staging a massive funeral event in Beirut where they will inter the body of Hassan Nasrallah, killed by a massive IAF strike on his bunker buried deep underground in Southern Beirut. Foreign dignitaries from Iran announced that they will be in attendance as well as nearly every senior Hezbollah official remaining. Sigh, such a tempting target……

A week ago the IDF conducted an assassination against Muhammad Shaheen inside Lebanon. Shaheen was the top commander of Hamas forces inside Lebanon. Shaheen was driving in his car and was struck by a short range missile fired from an Israeli drone. Here you can see a video of the aftermath of the attack, both its precision and devastation of the vehicle.

Syria Front

The IDF is also maintaining its freedom of action in Syria. Here is a video captured from an IAF drone attack on a Syrian Army weapons depot not far from the border with Israel.

Gaza Front

At this stage we are still in Phase 1 of the hostage/ceasefire agreement. The IDF has maintained its positions at the Rafah border crossing along the Philadelphi Corridor and a perimeter ranging from 600 to 1,000 meters within Gaza along its perimeters, a “no man’s land”. Attempts by Hamas to enter the zone have resulted in live fire, killing a few people. Since Hamas only puts uniforms on when they want to display the hostages to the world, they are typically dressed as civilians so the IDF has to act on ALL attempts to breach the border.

The Day After

President Trump’s remarks on turning Gaza into a beautiful beach front property with resorts for vacationers has prompted much speech making here in the Middle East.

I will go into some of the responses it has provoked here. But first please excuse this tirade from me. As you may have noticed, Hamas, the Palestinian Authority, most every government in the Middle East and the European Union have chimed in saying that moving the Gazans is “out of the question”, even temporarily. G-d forbid you should allow the Gazans to choose their own future - stay in Gaza or get resettled elsewhere. All these governments, and particularly the EU, are hypocrites and corrupt. You cannot have it both ways. If the Gazans are refugees then they should be allowed to resettle and move to other parts of the world. If they are not refugees then why is there this corrupt organization called UNRWA - United Nations Relief Works Agency???? It provides aid to refugees. So, if they are not refugees then why are they getting aid. You cannot have it both ways. You cannot call their towns and cities where they have been living for 75 years Refugee Camps if they are not refugees. So which is it?? Beware of any government or entity which states that the Gazans MUST STAY IN GAZA. They have their own hidden agenda. And their real purpose to perpetuate a problem, keep a population in captivity, indoctrinate that population into a death cult and use it as a perpetual weapon against a neighboring country. I remind my readers that Israel evacuated Gaza, 100%, in 2005. Not an Israeli nor IDF soldier was in Gaza for the 18 years leading up to October 2023. The Arab population got their “State”. They had the opportunity to turn that land into whatever they wanted. Do you want to know why they did not call Gaza, Palestine? Because the reality is that they do not care about Palestine. They wouldn’t know what to do with a state or piece of land if they had it. Hamas is no different from ISIS, and both are just kinder versions of Al-Qaeda.

Don’t believe me? You should go listen and read this. Here is the Hamas leading spokesman speaking at a conference hosted by the Hamas mouthpiece, Al Jazeera, recently in Doha. It was posted any Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, who is not particularly sympathetic to Israel or Jews. I provide the English translation:

It's official - Hamas wants war and pre-emptively rebukes Egypt and Arab proposals for Gaza. This video right here of Hamas's leader Osama Hamdan in Doha, Qatar, where the Aljazeera Forum is taking place, tells you everything you need to know about the terror group and why the resumption of total war in Gaza is merely a matter of time. He says that:

1- Hamas won, and the idea of the resistance was victorious.

2- Iran helped the resistance and will have a role in the future, whereas those who didn't help the resistance can't now expect to play a role (he's talking about the Arab countries).

3- Hamas, which brought unprecedented achievements, cannot be told that it won't be part of the Palestinian national project.

4- Anyone who wants to act in Israel's stead and in its place will be treated as such and will have to deal with the consequences of that (he's talking about any security arrangement that entails PA forces, Arab or international troops).

5- Hamas won't discuss disarming, the departure of its leaders [from Gaza], or disappearing from the scene and won't leave or pay any prices for reconstruction.

6- Hamas and team resistance have Iran, Turkey, and Africa (mainly referring to South Africa) as allies to provide support.

7- Hamas will rebuild its capabilities in Gaza and will expand them further, with its most crucial strength being that it can slap (attack) Israel anytime it wants.

This is a significant development and has immense implications for Gaza's people, the region, Trump's plan, and what's going to unfold in the near future.

Meanwhile our presumed friends in Egypt are coming up with their own plan in response to President Trump’s proposal. It is still a work-in-progress, but the elements that have been released to the public include:

• All Gazans will remain in Gaza throughout the reconstruction period.

• Egypt estimates that this will take 5 years. {All independent assessments say it will take $50B and 10-15 years.]

• Egypt and other Gulf states will provide the security and oversight through this period. [Right, this is the same Egypt which profited for more than 16 years from the contraband and smuggling operations of arms into Gaza from their border.]

• The Palestinian Authority will provide the police force. [Right, this is the same police force unable to contend with all the rise in terror operations within Judea/Samaria (West Bank) now. And this is the same police force that was murdered by Hamas back in 2007… thrown off the rooftops of Gaza while alive.]

• The Gulf States will provide the financing. [Yes, that is right. Knowing that Hamas or the PA will re-establish its terror state in a short time so the IDF will have to go back in to destroy it, these countries are going to pump money into something knowing it will be destroyed within less than a decade.]

Here is an assessment of the Egyptian Plan from an Egyptian AP correspondent in Cairo.

And In Your Copious Spare Time…

• Pundits worldwide continue to speculate on just what was intended by President Trump’s announcement to develop Gaza. Here is one from Gregory Gause of the Middle East Institute.

• And here is one from Jonathan Schanzer from Commentary Magazine.

• And here is one I like, in particular, from Elliott Abrams appearing in Commentary Magazine.

• And here is one from Israeli Correspondent Ben Dror Yemini in Yediot Ahranot.